Developing an index of dietary estimation of fermentable carbohydrate to allow dietary analysis for epidemiological studies

It has been proposed that long-term consumption of diets rich in non-digestible carbohydrates (NDCs), such as cereals, fruit and vegetables might protect against several chronic diseases, however, it has been difficult to fully establish their impact on health in epidemiology studies. The wide range properties of the different NDCs may dilution their impact when they are combined in one category for statistical comparisons in correlations or multivariate analysis. Several mechanisms have been suggested to explain the protective effects of NDCs, including increased stool bulk, dilution of carcinogens in the colonic lumen, reduced transit time, lowering pH, and bacterial fermentation to short chain fatty acids (SCFA) in the colon. However, it is very difficult to measure SCFA in humans in vivo with any accuracy, so epidemiological studies on the impact of SCFA are not feasible. Most studies use dietary fibre (DF) or Non-Starch Polysaccharides (NSP) intake to estimate the levels, but not all fibres or NSP are equally fermentable. It has been proposed that long-term consumption of diets rich in non-digestible carbohydrates (NDCs), such as cereals, fruit and vegetables might protect against several chronic diseases, however, it has been difficult to fully establish their impact on health in epidemiology studies. The wide range properties of the different NDCs may dilution their impact when they are combined in one category for statistical comparisons in correlations or multivariate analysis. Several mechanisms have been suggested to explain the protective effects of NDCs, including increased stool bulk, dilution of carcinogens in the colonic lumen, reduced transit time, lowering pH, and bacterial fermentation to short chain fatty acids (SCFA) in the colon. However, it is very difficult to measure SCFA in humans in vivo with any accuracy, so epidemiological studies on the impact of SCFA are not feasible. Most studies use dietary fibre (DF) or Non-Starch Polysaccharides (NSP) intake to estimate the levels, but not all fibres or NSP are equally fermentable. The first aim of this thesis was the development of the equations used to estimate the amount of FC that reaches the human colon and is fermented fully to SCFA by the colonic bacteria. Therefore, several studies were examined for evidence to determine the different percentages of each type of NDCs that should be included in the final model, based on how much NDCs entered the colon intact and also to what extent they were fermented to SCFA in vivo. Our model equations are FC-DF or NSP$ 1: 100 % Soluble + 10 % insoluble + 100 % NDOs¥ + 5 % TS** FC-DF or NSP 2: 100 % Soluble + 50 % insoluble + 100 % NDOs + 5 % TS FC-DF* or NSP 3: 100 % Soluble + 10 % insoluble + 100 % NDOs + 10 % TS FC-DF or NSP 4: 100 % Soluble + 50 % insoluble + 100 % NDOs + 10 % TS *DF: Dietary fibre; **TS: Total starch; $NSP: non-starch polysaccharide; ¥NDOs: non-digestible oligosaccharide The second study of this thesis aimed to examine all four predicted FC-DF and FC-NSP equations developed, to estimate FC from dietary records against urinary colonic NDCs fermentation biomarkers. The main finding of a cross-sectional comparison of habitual diet with urinary excretion of SCFA products, showed weak but significant correlation between the 24 h urinary excretion of SCFA and acetate with the estimated FC-DF 4 and FC-NSP 4 when considering all of the study participants (n = 122). Similar correlations were observed with the data for valid participants (n = 78). It was also observed that FC-DF and FC-NSP had positive correlations with 24 h urinary acetate and SCFA compared with DF and NSP alone. Hence, it could be hypothesised that using the developed index to estimate FC in the diet form dietary records, might predict SCFA production in the colon in vivo in humans. The next study in this thesis aimed to validate the FC equations developed using in vitro models of small intestinal digestion and human colon fermentation. The main findings in these in vitro studies were that there were several strong agreements between the amounts of SCFA produced after actual in vitro fermentation of single fibre and different mixtures of NDCs, and those predicted by the estimated FC from our developed equation FC-DF 4. These results which demonstrated a strong relationship between SCFA production in vitro from a range of fermentations of single fibres and mixtures of NDCs and that from the predicted FC equation, support the use of the FC equation for estimation of FC from dietary records. Therefore, we can conclude that the newly developed predicted equations have been deemed a valid and practical tool to assess SCFA productions for in vitro fermentation.

Indirect child mortality estimation technique to identify trends of under-five mortality in Ethiopia.

Background: In sub-Saharan African countries, the chance of a child dying before the age of five years is high. The problem is similar in Ethiopia, but it shows a decrease over years. Methods: The 2000; 2005 and 2011 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey results were used for this work. The purpose of the study is to detect the pattern of under-five child mortality overtime. Indirect child mortality estimation technique is adapted to examine the under-five child mortality trend in Ethiopia. Results: From the result, it was possible to see the trend of under-five child mortality in Ethiopia. The under-five child mortality shows a decline in Ethiopia. Conclusion: From the study, it can be seen that there is a positive correlation between mother and child survival which is almost certain in any population. Therefore, this study shows the trend of under-five mortality in Ethiopia and decline over time.

Age estimation in common sole Solea solea larvae: validation of daily increments and evaluation of a pattern recognition technique

Close similarities have been found between the otoliths of sea-caught and laboratory-reared larvae of the common sole Solea solea (L.), given appropriate temperatures and nourishment of the latter. But from hatching to mouth formation. and during metamorphosis, sole otoliths have proven difficult to read because the increments may be less regular and low contrast. In this study, the growth increments in otoliths of larvae reared at 12 degrees C were counted by light microscopy to test the hypothesis of daily deposition, with some results verified using scanning electron microscopy (SEM), and by image analysis in order to compare the reliability of the 2 methods in age estimation. Age was first estimated (in days posthatch) from light micrographs of whole mounted otoliths. Counts were initiated from the increment formed at the time of month opening (Day 4). The average incremental deposition rate was consistent with the daily hypothesis. However, the light-micrograph readings tended to underestimate the mean ages of the larvae. Errors were probably associated with the low-contrast increments: those deposited after the mouth formation during the transition to first feeding, and those deposited from the onset of eye migration (about 20 d posthatch) during metamorphosis. SEM failed to resolve these low-contrast areas accurately because of poor etching. A method using image analysis was applied to a subsample of micrograph-counted otoliths. The image analysis was supported by an algorithm of pattern recognition (Growth Demodulation Algorithm, GDA). On each otolith, the GDA method integrated the growth pattern of these larval otoliths to averaged data from different radial profiles, in order to demodulate the exponential trend of the signal before spectral analysis (Fast Fourier Transformation, FFT). This second method both allowed more precise designation of increments, particularly for low-contrast areas, and more accurate readings but increased error in mean age estimation. The variability is probably due to a still rough perception of otolith increments by the GDA method, counting being achieved through a theoretical exponential pattern and mean estimates being given by FFT. Although this error variability was greater than expected, the method provides for improvement in both speed and accuracy in otolith readings.

A space-time hybrid hourly rainfall model for derived flood frequency analysis

For derived flood frequency analysis based on hydrological modelling long continuous precipitation time series with high temporal resolution are needed. Often, the observation network with recording rainfall gauges is poor, especially regarding the limited length of the available rainfall time series. Stochastic precipitation synthesis is a good alternative either to extend or to regionalise rainfall series to provide adequate input for long-term rainfall-runoff modelling with subsequent estimation of design floods. Here, a new two step procedure for stochastic synthesis of continuous hourly space-time rainfall is proposed and tested for the extension of short observed precipitation time series. First, a single-site alternating renewal model is presented to simulate independent hourly precipitation time series for several locations. The alternating renewal model describes wet spell durations, dry spell durations and wet spell intensities using univariate frequency distributions separately for two seasons. The dependence between wet spell intensity and duration is accounted for by 2-copulas. For disaggregation of the wet spells into hourly intensities a predefined profile is used. In the second step a multi-site resampling procedure is applied on the synthetic point rainfall event series to reproduce the spatial dependence structure of rainfall. Resampling is carried out successively on all synthetic event series using simulated annealing with an objective function considering three bivariate spatial rainfall characteristics. In a case study synthetic precipitation is generated for some locations with short observation records in two mesoscale catchments of the Bode river basin located in northern Germany. The synthetic rainfall data are then applied for derived flood frequency analysis using the hydrological model HEC-HMS. The results show good performance in reproducing average and extreme rainfall characteristics as well as in reproducing observed flood frequencies. The presented model has the potential to be used for ungauged locations through regionalisation of the model parameters.

Quasi-a priori truncation error estimation in the DGSEM

In this paper we show how to accurately perform a quasi-a priori estimation of the truncation error of steady-state solutions computed by a discontinuous Galerkin spectral element method. We estimate the spatial truncation error using the ?-estimation procedure. While most works in the literature rely on fully time-converged solutions on grids with different spacing to perform the estimation, we use non time-converged solutions on one grid with different polynomial orders. The quasi-a priori approach estimates the error while the residual of the time-iterative method is not negligible. Furthermore, the method permits one to decouple the surface and the volume contributions of the truncation error, and provides information about the anisotropy of the solution as well as its rate of convergence in polynomial order. First, we focus on the analysis of one dimensional scalar conservation laws to examine the accuracy of the estimate. Then, we extend the analysis to two dimensional problems. We demonstrate that this quasi-a priori approach yields a spectrally accurate estimate of the truncation error.

An analysis of the effects of preferential trade policies through the estimation of quantitative models: the case of Portugal.

Doutoramento em Economia.

REAL TIME FUZZY CONTROLLER FOR QUADROTOR STABILITY CONTROL

In this report, we develop an intelligent adaptive neuro-fuzzy controller by using adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) techniques. We begin by starting with a standard proportional-derivative (PD) controller and use the PD controller data to train the ANFIS system to develop a fuzzy controller. We then propose and validate a method to implement this control strategy on commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) hardware. An analysis is made into the choice of filters for attitude estimation. These choices are limited by the complexity of the filter and the computing ability and memory constraints of the micro-controller. Simplified Kalman filters are found to be good at estimation of attitude given the above constraints. Using model based design techniques, the models are implemented on an embedded system. This enables the deployment of fuzzy controllers on enthusiast-grade controllers. We evaluate the feasibility of the proposed control strategy in a model-in-the-loop simulation. We then propose a rapid prototyping strategy, allowing us to deploy these control algorithms on a system consisting of a combination of an ARM-based microcontroller and two Arduino-based controllers. We then use a combination of the code generation capabilities within MATLAB/Simulink in combination with multiple open-source projects in order to deploy code to an ARM CortexM4 based controller board. We also evaluate this strategy on an ARM-A8 based board, and a much less powerful Arduino based flight controller. We conclude by proving the feasibility of fuzzy controllers on Commercial-off the shelf (COTS) hardware, we also point out the limitations in the current hardware and make suggestions for hardware that we think would be better suited for memory heavy controllers.

DEVELOPMENT AND VALIDATION OF THE ANTERIOR CRUCIATE LIGAMENT INJURY-RISK-ESTIMATION QUIZ (ACL-IQ)

Over 2 million Anterior Cruciate Ligament (ACL) injuries occur annually worldwide resulting in considerable economic and health burdens (e.g., suffering, surgery, loss of function, risk for re-injury, and osteoarthritis). Current screening methods are effective but they generally rely on expensive and time-consuming biomechanical movement analysis, and thus are impractical solutions. In this dissertation, I report on a series of studies that begins to investigate one potentially efficient alternative to biomechanical screening, namely skilled observational risk assessment (e.g., having experts estimate risk based on observations of athletes movements). Specifically, in Study 1 I discovered that ACL injury risk can be accurately and reliably estimated with nearly instantaneous visual inspection when observed by skilled and knowledgeable professionals. Modern psychometric optimization techniques were then used to develop a robust and efficient 5-item test of ACL injury risk prediction skill—i.e., the ACL Injury-Risk-Estimation Quiz or ACL-IQ. Study 2 cross-validated the results from Study 1 in a larger representative sample of both skilled (Exercise Science/Sports Medicine) and un-skilled (General Population) groups. In accord with research on human expertise, quantitative structural and process modeling of risk estimation indicated that superior performance was largely mediated by specific strategies and skills (e.g., ignoring irrelevant information), independent of domain general cognitive abilities (e.g., metal rotation, general decision skill). These cognitive models suggest that ACL-IQ is a trainable skill, providing a foundation for future research and applications in training, decision support, and ultimately clinical screening investigations. Overall, I present the first evidence that observational ACL injury risk prediction is possible including a robust technology for fast, accurate and reliable measurement—i.e., the ACL-IQ. Discussion focuses on applications and outreach including a web platform that was developed to house the test, provide a repository for further data collection, and increase public and professional awareness and outreach (www.ACL-IQ.org). Future directions and general applications of the skilled movement analysis approach are also discussed.

Bayesian Estimation of Small Proportions Using Binomial Group Test

Group testing has long been considered as a safe and sensible relative to one-at-a-time testing in applications where the prevalence rate p is small. In this thesis, we applied Bayes approach to estimate p using Beta-type prior distribution. First, we showed two Bayes estimators of p from prior on p derived from two different loss functions. Second, we presented two more Bayes estimators of p from prior on π according to two loss functions. We also displayed credible and HPD interval for p. In addition, we did intensive numerical studies. All results showed that the Bayes estimator was preferred over the usual maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for small p. We also presented the optimal β for different p, m, and k.

Leakage Temperature Dependency Aware Real-Time Scheduling for Power and Thermal Optimization

Catering to society’s demand for high performance computing, billions of transistors are now integrated on IC chips to deliver unprecedented performances. With increasing transistor density, the power consumption/density is growing exponentially. The increasing power consumption directly translates to the high chip temperature, which not only raises the packaging/cooling costs, but also degrades the performance/reliability and life span of the computing systems. Moreover, high chip temperature also greatly increases the leakage power consumption, which is becoming more and more significant with the continuous scaling of the transistor size. As the semiconductor industry continues to evolve, power and thermal challenges have become the most critical challenges in the design of new generations of computing systems. In this dissertation, we addressed the power/thermal issues from the system-level perspective. Specifically, we sought to employ real-time scheduling methods to optimize the power/thermal efficiency of the real-time computing systems, with leakage/ temperature dependency taken into consideration. In our research, we first explored the fundamental principles on how to employ dynamic voltage scaling (DVS) techniques to reduce the peak operating temperature when running a real-time application on a single core platform. We further proposed a novel real-time scheduling method, “M-Oscillations” to reduce the peak temperature when scheduling a hard real-time periodic task set. We also developed three checking methods to guarantee the feasibility of a periodic real-time schedule under peak temperature constraint. We further extended our research from single core platform to multi-core platform. We investigated the energy estimation problem on the multi-core platforms and developed a light weight and accurate method to calculate the energy consumption for a given voltage schedule on a multi-core platform. Finally, we concluded the dissertation with elaborated discussions of future extensions of our research.

Reducing Uncertainties in Estimation of Wind Effects on Tall Buildings Using Aerodynamic Wind Tunnel Tests

Tall buildings are wind-sensitive structures and could experience high wind-induced effects. Aerodynamic boundary layer wind tunnel testing has been the most commonly used method for estimating wind effects on tall buildings. Design wind effects on tall buildings are estimated through analytical processing of the data obtained from aerodynamic wind tunnel tests. Even though it is widely agreed that the data obtained from wind tunnel testing is fairly reliable the post-test analytical procedures are still argued to have remarkable uncertainties. This research work attempted to assess the uncertainties occurring at different stages of the post-test analytical procedures in detail and suggest improved techniques for reducing the uncertainties. Results of the study showed that traditionally used simplifying approximations, particularly in the frequency domain approach, could cause significant uncertainties in estimating aerodynamic wind-induced responses. Based on identified shortcomings, a more accurate dual aerodynamic data analysis framework which works in the frequency and time domains was developed. The comprehensive analysis framework allows estimating modal, resultant and peak values of various wind-induced responses of a tall building more accurately. Estimating design wind effects on tall buildings also requires synthesizing the wind tunnel data with local climatological data of the study site. A novel copula based approach was developed for accurately synthesizing aerodynamic and climatological data up on investigating the causes of significant uncertainties in currently used synthesizing techniques. Improvement of the new approach over the existing techniques was also illustrated with a case study on a 50 story building. At last, a practical dynamic optimization approach was suggested for tuning structural properties of tall buildings towards attaining optimum performance against wind loads with less number of design iterations.

Quantum kernels for unattributed graphs using discrete-time quantum walks

In this paper, we develop a new family of graph kernels where the graph structure is probed by means of a discrete-time quantum walk. Given a pair of graphs, we let a quantum walk evolve on each graph and compute a density matrix with each walk. With the density matrices for the pair of graphs to hand, the kernel between the graphs is defined as the negative exponential of the quantum Jensen–Shannon divergence between their density matrices. In order to cope with large graph structures, we propose to construct a sparser version of the original graphs using the simplification method introduced in Qiu and Hancock (2007). To this end, we compute the minimum spanning tree over the commute time matrix of a graph. This spanning tree representation minimizes the number of edges of the original graph while preserving most of its structural information. The kernel between two graphs is then computed on their respective minimum spanning trees. We evaluate the performance of the proposed kernels on several standard graph datasets and we demonstrate their effectiveness and efficiency.

Online impedance spectroscopy estimation of a battery

Electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS) is a helpful tool to understand how a battery is behaving and how it degrades. One of the disadvantages is that it is typically an 'off-line' process. This paper investigates an alternative method of looking at impedance spectroscopy of a battery system while it is on-line and operational by manipulating the switching pattern of the dc-dc converter to generate low frequency harmonics in conjunction with the normal high frequency switching pattern to determine impedance in real time. However, this adds extra ripple on the inductor which needs to be included in the design calculations. The paper describes the methodology and presents some experimental results in conjunction with EIS results to illustrate the concept.

Evolution of classifiers for pitch estimation of piano music using cartesian genetic programming

Pitch Estimation, also known as Fundamental Frequency (F0) estimation, has been a popular research topic for many years, and is still investigated nowadays. The goal of Pitch Estimation is to find the pitch or fundamental frequency of a digital recording of a speech or musical notes. It plays an important role, because it is the key to identify which notes are being played and at what time. Pitch Estimation of real instruments is a very hard task to address. Each instrument has its own physical characteristics, which reflects in different spectral characteristics. Furthermore, the recording conditions can vary from studio to studio and background noises must be considered. This dissertation presents a novel approach to the problem of Pitch Estimation, using Cartesian Genetic Programming (CGP).We take advantage of evolutionary algorithms, in particular CGP, to explore and evolve complex mathematical functions that act as classifiers. These classifiers are used to identify piano notes pitches in an audio signal. To help us with the codification of the problem, we built a highly flexible CGP Toolbox, generic enough to encode different kind of programs. The encoded evolutionary algorithm is the one known as 1 + , and we can choose the value for . The toolbox is very simple to use. Settings such as the mutation probability, number of runs and generations are configurable. The cartesian representation of CGP can take multiple forms and it is able to encode function parameters. It is prepared to handle with different type of fitness functions: minimization of f(x) and maximization of f(x) and has a useful system of callbacks. We trained 61 classifiers corresponding to 61 piano notes. A training set of audio signals was used for each of the classifiers: half were signals with the same pitch as the classifier (true positive signals) and the other half were signals with different pitches (true negative signals). F-measure was used for the fitness function. Signals with the same pitch of the classifier that were correctly identified by the classifier, count as a true positives. Signals with the same pitch of the classifier that were not correctly identified by the classifier, count as a false negatives. Signals with different pitch of the classifier that were not identified by the classifier, count as a true negatives. Signals with different pitch of the classifier that were identified by the classifier, count as a false positives. Our first approach was to evolve classifiers for identifying artifical signals, created by mathematical functions: sine, sawtooth and square waves. Our function set is basically composed by filtering operations on vectors and by arithmetic operations with constants and vectors. All the classifiers correctly identified true positive signals and did not identify true negative signals. We then moved to real audio recordings. For testing the classifiers, we picked different audio signals from the ones used during the training phase. For a first approach, the obtained results were very promising, but could be improved. We have made slight changes to our approach and the number of false positives reduced 33%, compared to the first approach. We then applied the evolved classifiers to polyphonic audio signals, and the results indicate that our approach is a good starting point for addressing the problem of Pitch Estimation.

Development of Novel Time-Domain Electromagnetic Methods for Offshore Groundwater Studies: A Data Application from Bat Yam, Israel

Recent marine long-offset transient electromagnetic (LOTEM) measurements yielded the offshore delineation of a fresh groundwater body beneath the seafloor in the region of Bat Yam, Israel. The LOTEM application was effective in detecting this freshwater body underneath the Mediterranean Sea and allowed an estimation of its seaward extent. However, the measured data set was insufficient to understand the hydrogeological configuration and mechanism controlling the occurrence of this fresh groundwater discovery. Especially the lateral geometry of the freshwater boundary, important for the hydrogeological modelling, could not be resolved. Without such an understanding, a rational management of this unexploited groundwater reservoir is not possible. Two new high-resolution marine time-domain electromagnetic methods are theoretically developed to derive the hydrogeological structure of the western aquifer boundary. The first is called Circular Electric Dipole (CED). It is the land-based analogous of the Vertical Electric Dipole (VED), which is commonly applied to detect resistive structures in the subsurface. Although the CED shows exceptional detectability characteristics in the step-off signal towards the sub-seafloor freshwater body, an actual application was not carried out in the extent of this study. It was found that the method suffers from an insufficient signal strength to adequately delineate the resistive aquifer under realistic noise conditions. Moreover, modelling studies demonstrated that severe signal distortions are caused by the slightest geometrical inaccuracies. As a result, a successful application of CED in Israel proved to be rather doubtful. A second method called Differential Electric Dipole (DED) is developed as an alternative to the intended CED method. Compared to the conventional marine time-domain electromagnetic system that commonly applies a horizontal electric dipole transmitter, the DED is composed of two horizontal electric dipoles in an in-line configuration that share a common central electrode. Theoretically, DED has similar detectability/resolution characteristics compared to the conventional LOTEM system. However, the superior lateral resolution towards multi-dimensional resistivity structures make an application desirable. Furthermore, the method is less susceptible towards geometrical errors making an application in Israel feasible. In the extent of this thesis, the novel marine DED method is substantiated using several one-dimensional (1D) and multi-dimensional (2D/3D) modelling studies. The main emphasis lies on the application in Israel. Preliminary resistivity models are derived from the previous marine LOTEM measurement and tested for a DED application. The DED method is effective in locating the two-dimensional resistivity structure at the western aquifer boundary. Moreover, a prediction regarding the hydrogeological boundary conditions are feasible, provided a brackish water zone exists at the head of the interface. A seafloor-based DED transmitter/receiver system is designed and built at the Institute of Geophysics and Meteorology at the University of Cologne. The first DED measurements were carried out in Israel in April 2016. The acquired data set is the first of its kind. The measured data is processed and subsequently interpreted using 1D inversion. The intended aim of interpreting both step-on and step-off signals failed, due to the insufficient data quality of the latter. Yet, the 1D inversion models of the DED step-on signals clearly detect the freshwater body for receivers located close to the Israeli coast. Additionally, a lateral resistivity contrast is observable in the 1D inversion models that allow to constrain the seaward extent of this freshwater body. A large-scale 2D modelling study followed the 1D interpretation. In total, 425 600 forward calculations are conducted to find a sub-seafloor resistivity distribution that adequately explains the measured data. The results indicate that the western aquifer boundary is located at 3600 m - 3700 m before the coast. Moreover, a brackish water zone of 3 Omega*m to 5 Omega*m with a lateral extent of less than 300 m is likely located at the head of the freshwater aquifer. Based on these results, it is predicted that the sub-seafloor freshwater body is indeed open to the sea and may be vulnerable to seawater intrusion.