919 resultados para DEMOGRAPHIC STOCHASTICITY
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Most transportation agencies stipulate that an important planning goal is to provide equitable and just public transport services. However, who is to be served and the type of service that should be provided has been ambiguous. This paper develops a methodology for examining equity in the provision of public transportation services. An approach for identifying areas in need of public transport is developed based upon the use of socio-demographic and economic information. Public transport need is then related to levels of access to service. This approach makes it possible to establish the degree to which public transport services may be considered equitable in relation to need and suitable access. A detailed analysis of the southeast Queensland region of Australia illustrates how this approach may be used to inform public transport decision making.
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This quantitative pilot study (n = 178), conducted in a large Brisbane teaching hospital in Australia, found autonomy to be the most important job component for registered nurses' job satisfaction. The actual level of satisfaction with autonomy was 4.6, on a scale of 1 for very dissatisfied to 7 for very satisfied. The mean for job satisfaction was 4.3, with the job components professional status and interaction adding most substantially to the result. There was discontentment with the other two job components, which were Cask requirements and organisational policies. Demographic comparisons showed that nurses who were preceptors had significantly less job satisfaction than the other nurses at the hospital. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Since European settlement in Australia, the geographical range of ghost bats (Macroderma gigas) has contracted northwards. Ghost bats are thought to occur in disjunct populations with little interpopulation migration, raising concerns over the current status and future viability of the southernmost colony, which has also been threatened by mining activity. To address these concerns, demographic parameters of the southernmost colony were estimated from a mark-recapture study conducted during 1975-1981. Female bats gave birth to a single young in late spring, but only 40% (22-70%, 95% CI) of females bred in their second year, increasing to 93% (87-97%, 95% CI) for females greater than or equal to 2 years old. Sixty-five percent of juveniles caught were female. Annual adult survival ranged between 0.57-0.77 for females and 0.43-0.66 for males, and was lowest over winter-spring and greatest in autumn-winter. Juvenile survival for the first year ranged between 0.35-0.46 for females and 0.29-0.42 for males. Adult survival varied among seasons, was negatively associated with rainfall, but was not associated with temperature beyond being lower in late winter. Poor survival may result from the inferior daytime roosts that bats must use if water seepage forces them to leave their normal roosts. Although these age-specific rates of fecundity and survival suggested a declining population, mark-recapture estimates of the population trend indicated stability over the study period. Counts at daytime roosts also suggested a population decline, but were considered unreliable because of an increasing tendency of bats to avoid detection. It is therefore likely that some assumptions in estimating survival were violated. These results provide a caution against the uncritical use of population projections derived from mark-recapture estimates of demographic parameters, and the use of untested indices as the basis for conservation decisions.
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Much progress has been made on inferring population history from molecular data. However, complex demographic scenarios have been considered rarely or have proved intractable. The serial introduction of the South-Central American cane Load Bufo marinas in various Caribbean and Pacific islands involves four major phases: a possible genetic admixture during the first introduction, a bottleneck associated with founding, a transitory, population boom, and finally, a demographic stabilization. A large amount of historical and demographic information is available for those introductions and can be combined profitably with molecular data. We used a Bayesian approach to combine this information With microsatellite (10 loci) and enzyme (22 loci) data and used a rejection algorithm to simultaneously estimate the demographic parameters describing the four major phases of the introduction history,. The general historical trends supported by microsatellites and enzymes were similar. However, there was a stronger support for a larger bottleneck at introductions for microsatellites than enzymes and for a more balanced genetic admixture for enzymes than for microsatellites. Verb, little information was obtained from either marker about the transitory population boom observed after each introduction. Possible explanations for differences in resolution of demographic events and discrepancies between results obtained with microsatellites and enzymes were explored. Limits Of Our model and method for the analysis of nonequilibrium populations were discussed.
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We introduce a model for the dynamics of a patchy population in a stochastic environment and derive a criterion for its persistence. This criterion is based on the geometric mean (GM) through time of the spatial-arithmetic mean of growth rates. For the population to persist, the GM has to be greater than or equal to1. The GM increases with the number of patches (because the sampling error is reduced) and decreases with both the variance and the spatial covariance of growth rates. We derive analytical expressions for the minimum number of patches (and the maximum harvesting rate) required for the persistence of the population. As the magnitude of environmental fluctuations increases, the number of patches required for persistence increases, and the fraction of individuals that can be harvested decreases. The novelty of our approach is that we focus on Malthusian local population dynamics with high dispersal and strong environmental variability from year to year. Unlike previous models of patchy populations that assume an infinite number of patches, we focus specifically on the effect that the number of patches has on population persistence. Our work is therefore directly relevant to patchily distributed organisms that are restricted to a small number of habitat patches.
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An understanding of the pathology and natural history of serrated adenoma of the colorectum has emerged slowly and comparatively recently. In this review, hyperplastic polyps, admixed polyps and serrated adenomas are conceived as a continuum of serrated polyps. Mechanisms underlying the expression of serrated morphology are outlined. The demographic, macroscopic and microscopic features of serrated adenoma are presented but it is stressed that the distinction from other epithelial polyps may not always be straightforward. Molecular studies point to heterogeneity within the serrated pathway and among conditions encompassed by the term serrated polyposis. Management of serrated adenoma is discussed but the need for further research is emphasized. The importance of serrated adenoma as a precancerous lesion has been underestimated. © 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd.
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The motivation for concern about the environment beyond one's neighborhood is still relatively poorly understood. This article examines the determinants of feelings of responsibility at a regional watershed level. Using demographic, attitudinal, self-reported behavior and neighborhood mapping measures from four cities in Australia, five hypotheses were derived. These were that wider environmental concerns would depend on (a) the physical and social characteristics of the respondents' neighborhoods, (b) the size of their perceived neighborhoods, (c) the length of residence at their localities, (d) educational level and attitudes toward environmental moral responsibility (and the interaction between them), and (e) the level of reported environmentally friendly behavior. Support was gained for all hypotheses except length of residence and the role of general moral attitudes toward the environment. It is concluded that to explain community action at the regional level, it is important to include both spatial and psychological insights and methodologies in research.
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Recently, the behavior of senior travelers has become an important area of interest because of its market size and potential for growth. This study describes a study profiling senior travelers according to their demographic and psychographic characteristics. Six market segments were used to highlight the differences that exist in terms of holiday attractions, travel motivations, and information sources used among senior travelers when planning and choosing a holiday. Seniors are shown not to be a uniform conservative market, which has implications for marketing and product development.
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Objective To describe the decision-making processes used by men diagnosed with localized prostate cancer who were considering treatment. Patients and methods Men newly diagnosed with localized prostate cancer from outpatient urology clinics and urologist's private practices were approached before treatment. Their decision-making processes and information-seeking behaviour was assessed; demographic information was also obtained. Results Of 119 men approached, 108 (90%) were interviewed; 91% reported non-systematic decision processes, with deferral to the doctor, positive and negative recollections of others' cancer experiences, and the pre-existing belief that surgery is a better cancer treatment being most common. For systematic information processing the mean (SD, range) number of items considered was 4.19 (2.28, 0-11), with 57% of men considering four or fewer treatment/medical aspects of prostate cancer. Men most commonly considered cancer stage (59%), urinary incontinence (55%) and impotence (51%) after surgery, and low overall mortality (45%). Uncertainty about probabilities for cure was reported by 43% of men and fear of cancer spread by 37%. Men also described uncertainty about the probabilities of side-effects (27%), decisional uncertainty (25%) and anticipated decisional regret (18%). Overall, 73% of men sought information about prostate cancer from external sources, most commonly the Internet, followed by family and friends. Conclusions In general, men did not use information about medical treatments comprehensively or systematically when making treatment decisions, and their processing of medical information was biased by their previous beliefs about cancer and health. These findings have implications for the provision of informational and decisional support to men considering prostate cancer treatment.
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Background: Estimates of the performance of carbohydrate deficient transferrin (CDT) and gamma glutamyltransferase (GGT) as markers of alcohol consumption have varied widely. Studies have differed in design and subject characteristics. The WHO/ISBRA Collaborative Study allows assessment and comparison of CDT, GGT, and aspartate aminotransferase (AST) as markers of drinking in a large, well-characterized, multicenter sample. Methods: A total of 1863 subjects were recruited from five countries (Australia, Brazil, Canada, Finland, and Japan). Recruitment was stratified by alcohol use, age, and sex. Demographic characteristics, alcohol consumption, and presence of ICD-10 dependence were recorded using an interview schedule based on the AUDADIS, CDT was assayed using CDTect(TM) and GGT and AST by standard methods. Statistical techniques included receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. Multiple regression was used to measure the impact of factors other than alcohol on test performance. Results: CDT and GGT had comparable performance on ROC analysis, with AST performing slightly less well. CDT was a slightly but significantly better marker of high-risk consumption in men. All were more effective for detection of high-risk rather than intermediate-risk drinking. CDT and GGT levels were influenced by body mass index, sex, age, and smoking status. Conclusions: CDT was little better than GGT in detecting high- or intermediate-risk alcohol consumption in this large, multicenter, predominantly community-based sample. As the two tests are relatively independent of each other, their combination is likely to provide better performance than either test alone, Test interpretation should take account sex, age. and body mass index.
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Aims To identify influences on the development of alcohol use disorders in a Thai population, particularly parental drinking and childhood environment. Design Case-control study. Setting A university hospital, a regional hospital and a community hospital in southern Thailand. Participants Ninety-one alcohol-dependents and 177 hazardous/harmful drinkers were recruited as cases and 144 non-or infrequent drinkers as controls. Measurements Data on parental drinking, family demographic characteristics, family activities, parental disciplinary practice, early religious life and conduct disorder were obtained using a structured interview questionnaire. The main outcome measure was the subject's classification as alcohol-dependent, hazardous/harmful drinker or non-/infrequent drinker. Findings A significant relationship was found between having a drinking father and the occurrence of hazardous/harmful drinking or alcohol dependence in the subjects. Childhood factors (conduct disorder and having been a temple boy, relative probability ratios, RPRs and 95% CI: 6.39, 2.81-14.55 and 2.21, 1.19-4.08, respectively) also significantly predicted alcohol dependence, while perceived poverty and ethnic alienation was reported less frequently by hazardous/harmful drinkers and alcohol-dependents (RPRS and 95% CIs = 0.34, 0.19-0.62 and 0.59, 0.38-0.93, respectively) than the controls. The relative probability ratio for the effect of the father's infrequent drinking on the son's alcohol dependence was 2.92 (95% CI = 1.42-6.02) and for the father's heavy or dependent drinking 2.84 (95% CI=1.31-6.15). Conclusions Being exposed to a light-drinking, father increases the risk of a son's alcohol use disorders exhibited either as hazardous-harmful or dependent drinking. However, exposure to a heavy- or dependent-drinking father is associated more uniquely with an increased risk of his son being alcohol-dependent. The extent to which this is seen in other cultures is worthy of exploration.
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Aims: To determine the prevalence of hazardous drinking and alcohol-related negative consequences in New Zealand tertiary students, and to identify predictors of hazardous drinking across a 6-month period. Methods: A total of 1480 tertiary students living in halls of residence was surveyed at the start of the academic year, and a subsample of 967 students was followed up 6 months later. Questionnaire items included quantity and frequency of drinking, alcohol-related problems, use of other substances, and the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT). Drinking at follow-up was modelled using demographic characteristics, mental well-being, other substance use, alcohol-related problems, and hall drinking norms, measured at baseline. Results: Among drinkers, mean (+/- SD) weekly consumption was 243 +/- 241 and 135 +/- 157 g of ethanol for males and females respectively. The majority of male (60.0%) and female (58.2%) drinkers typically consumed more than national safe drinking guidelines. Mean (+/- SD) AUDIT scores were 10.9 +/- 7.6 for males and 7.6 +/- 5.9 for females. After controlling for AUDIT scores at baseline, increased AUDIT scores at follow-up were higher with lower age, Maori ethnicity, smoking, cannabis use, high levels of alcohol-related negative consequences, and higher levels of drinking in the student's hall of residence. Conclusions: Hazardous drinking is widespread and persistent among students living in the halls of residence. There is a need for university alcohol policies and intervention approaches among New Zealand tertiary students.
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OBJECTIVE: To investigate the prevalence and predictors of weight maintenance over time in a large sample of young Australian women. DESIGN: This population study examined baseline and 4y follow-up data from the cohort of young women participating in the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health. SUBJECTS: A total of 8726 young women aged 18 - 23y at baseline. MEASURES: Height, weight and body mass index (BMI); physical activity; time spent sitting; selected eating behaviours (eg dieting, disordered eating, takeaway food consumption); cigarette smoking, alcohol consumption; parity; and socio-demographic characteristics. RESULTS: Only 44% of the women reported their BMI at follow-up to be within 5% of their baseline BMI (maintainers); 41% had gained weight and 15% had lost weight. Weight maintainers were more likely to be in managerial or professional occupations; to have never married; to be currently studying; and not to be mothers. Controlling for sociodemographic factors, weight maintainers were more likely to be in a healthy weight range at baseline, and to report that they spent less time sitting, and consumed less takeaway food, than women who gained weight. CONCLUSIONS: Fewer than half the young women in this community sample maintained their weight over this 4y period in their early twenties. Findings of widespread weight gain, particularly among those already overweight, suggest that early adulthood, which is a time of significant life changes for many women, may be an important time for implementing strategies to promote maintenance of healthy weight. Strategies which encourage decreased sitting time and less takeaway food consumption may be effective for encouraging weight maintenance at this life stage.
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This article analyzes physical symptoms experienced by mid-age Australian women in different stages of the menopause transition. A total of 8,623 women, aged 45 to 50 years in 1996, who participated the mid-age cohort of the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health, completed Survey I in 1996 and Survey 2 in 1998. Women were assigned to I of 6 menopause groups according to their menopausal status at Surveys 1 and 2, and compared on symptoms experienced at Surveys I and 2, adjusted for lifestyle, behavioral and demographic factors. At Survey 1, the most commonly reported symptoms were headaches, back pain, stiff joints, tiredness, and difficulty sleeping. Perimenopausal women were more likely than premenopausal or postmenopausal women to report these symptoms. Hot flushes and night sweats were more common among postmenopausal women. Compared with those who remained premenopausal, women who were in the early stages of menopause or perimenopausal were more likely to report tiredness, stiff joints, difficulty sleeping, and hot flushes at Survey 2. Women who remained perimenopausal were also more likely to report back pain and leaking urine. Compared with premenopausal women, odds ratios for night sweats increased for women in consecutive stages of the menopause transition and remained high in the postmenopausal women.