Essays in Firm Responses to Demand and Competition Shocks

The aim of this dissertation is to examine, model and estimate firm responses to

demand shocks by focusing on specific industries where demand shocks are well

identified. Combining reduced-form evidence and structural analysis, this dissertation

extends the economic literature by focusing on within-firm responses of firms

to two important demand shocks that are identifiable in empirical settings. First,

I focus on how firms respond to a decrease in effective demand due to competition

shocks coming from globalization. By considering China's accession to the World

Trade Organization in 2001 and its impact on the apparel industry, the aim of these

chapters is to answer how firms react to the increase in Chinese import competition,

what is the mechanism behind these responses, and how important they are in explaining

the survival of the Peruvian apparel industry. Second, I study how suppliers'

survival probability relates to the sudden disruption of their main customer-supplier

relationships with downstream manufacturers, conditional on suppliers' own idiosyncratic

characteristics such as physical productivity.

Survey on demand side sensitivity to power quality in Ireland

Power systems require a reliable supply and good power quality. The impact of power supply interruptions is well acknowledged and well quantified. However, a system may perform reliably without any interruptions but may have poor power quality. Although poor power quality has cost implications for all actors in the electrical power systems, only some users are aware of its impact. Power system operators are much attuned to the impact of low power quality on their equipment and have the appropriate monitoring systems in place. However, over recent years certain industries have come increasingly vulnerable to negative cost implications of poor power quality arising from changes in their load characteristics and load sensitivities, and therefore increasingly implement power quality monitoring and mitigation solutions. This paper reviews several historical studies which investigate the cost implications of poor power quality on industry. These surveys are largely focused on outages, whilst the impact of poor power quality such as harmonics, short interruptions, voltage dips and swells, and transients is less well studied and understood. This paper examines the difficulties in quantifying the costs of poor power quality, and uses the chi-squared method to determine the consequences for industry of power quality phenomenon using a case study of over 40 manufacturing and data centres in Ireland.

Rowing Biomechanics: Technique Changes with an Increase of Power Demand

The sport of rowing has become more popular in the past decade. While it is a relatively low impact sport, injuries can occur, specifically to the ribs (Karlson K. A., 1998) and more often in female athletes (Hickey, Fricker, & McDonald , 1997). It has been proposed that as the athlete rows, applying a cyclical load to the body, the mid trapezius fatigues and is unable to resist the force produced during the drive phase (Warden S. J., Gutschlag, Wajswelner, & Crossley, 2002). Once this happens, the scapulae are then pulled anterio-laterally which increases the compression force on the ribs, increasing the risk of injury. The rowing motion of 12 female varsity and club rowers was tracked as they completed a fatiguing rowing test on a rowing ergometer. Results showed that the curvature of thoracic spine changed throughout the rowing cycle but did not change with increasing power level. The transverse shoulder angle decreased (the upper back was less straight) as power level increased (R2=-0.69±19), suggesting that the scapula moved anterio-laterally. This may be that as it tired, the mid-trapezius was unable to hold the scapulae in position. The decreasing transverse shoulder angle when the power level is increased indirectly supports the fatiguing of the retractor muscles as a mechanism of injury. It would be valuable to understand the limitations of each athlete and to be able to prescribe the optimal training zone to reduce the risk of injury.

Novel Formulation and Efficient Solution Strategy for Strategic Optimization of an Industrial Chemical Supply Chain Under Demand Uncertainty

This paper is concerned with strategic optimization of a typical industrial chemical supply chain, which involves a material purchase and transportation network, several manufacturing plants with on-site material and product inventories, a product transportation network and several regional markets. In order to address large uncertainties in customer demands at the different regional markets, a novel robust scenario formulation, which has been developed by the authors recently, is tailored and applied for the strategic optimization. Case study results show that the robust scenario formulation works well for this real industrial supply chain system, and it outperforms the deterministic formulation and the classical scenario-based stochastic programming formulation by generating better expected economic performance and solutions that are guaranteed to be feasible for all uncertainty realizations. The robust scenario problem exhibits a decomposable structure that can be taken advantage of by Benders decomposition for efficient solution, so the application of Benders decomposition to the solution of the strategic optimization is also discussed. The case study results show that Benders decomposition can reduce the solution time by almost an order of magnitude when the number of scenarios in the problem is large.

New Developments in Tourism and Hotel Demand Modeling and Forecasting

Abstract Purpose The purpose of the study is to review recent studies published from 2007-2015 on tourism and hotel demand modeling and forecasting with a view to identifying the emerging topics and methods studied and to pointing future research directions in the field. Design/Methodology/approach Articles on tourism and hotel demand modeling and forecasting published in both science citation index (SCI) and social science citation index (SSCI) journals were identified and analyzed. Findings This review found that the studies focused on hotel demand are relatively less than those on tourism demand. It is also observed that more and more studies have moved away from the aggregate tourism demand analysis, while disaggregate markets and niche products have attracted increasing attention. Some studies have gone beyond neoclassical economic theory to seek additional explanations of the dynamics of tourism and hotel demand, such as environmental factors, tourist online behavior and consumer confidence indicators, among others. More sophisticated techniques such as nonlinear smooth transition regression, mixed-frequency modeling technique and nonparametric singular spectrum analysis have also been introduced to this research area. Research limitations/implications The main limitation of this review is that the articles included in this study only cover the English literature. Future review of this kind should also include articles published in other languages. The review provides a useful guide for researchers who are interested in future research on tourism and hotel demand modeling and forecasting. Practical implications This review provides important suggestions and recommendations for improving the efficiency of tourism and hospitality management practices. Originality/value The value of this review is that it identifies the current trends in tourism and hotel demand modeling and forecasting research and points out future research directions.

The Roles of ‘Conventional’ and Demand-Responsive Bus Services

Purpose - The roles of ‘conventional’ (fixed-route and fixed-timetable) bus services is examined and compared to demand-responsive services, taking rural areas in England as the basis for comparison. It adopts a ‘rural’ definition of settlements under a population of 10,000. Design/methodology/approach - Evidence from the National Travel Survey, technical press reports and academic work is brought together to examine the overall picture. Findings - Inter-urban services between towns can provide a cost-effective way of serving rural areas where smaller settlements are suitably located. The cost structures of both fixed-route and demand-responsive services indicate that staff time and cost associated with vehicle provision are the main elements. Demand-responsive services may enable larger areas to be covered, to meet planning objectives of ensuring a minimum of level of service, but experience often shows high unit cost and public expenditure per passenger trip. Economic evaluation indicates user benefits per passenger trip of similar magnitude to existing average public expenditure per trip on fixed-route services. Considerable scope exists for improvements to conventional services through better marketing and service reliability. Practical implications - The main issue in England is the level of funding for rural services in general, and the importance attached to serving those without access to cars in such areas. Social implications - The boundary between fixed-route and demand-responsive operation may lie at relatively low population densities. Originality/value - The chapter uses statistical data, academic research and operator experience of enhanced conventional bus services to provide a synthesis of outcomes in rural areas.

Immigration and the demand for life insurance: evidence from Canada, 1911

This article analyses the determinants of the demand for life insurance using sample data from the 1911 Census of Canada. We find that immigrants' demand for life insurance was on average around 13 percentage points lower than that of native-born Canadians, with the effect varying by province of settlement. We interpret these findings as evidence suggesting a greater appetite for risk among self-selecting immigrants relative to native-born Canadians. We also uncover evidence of a slow assimilation of immigrants in terms of life insurance holdings, slower indeed than the process of assimilation in terms of earnings.

Hierarchical Demand Response for Peak Minimization Using Dantzig-Wolfe Decomposition

Demand response (DR) algorithms manipulate the energy consumption schedules of controllable loads so as to satisfy grid objectives. Implementation of DR algorithms using a centralized agent can be problematic for scalability reasons, and there are issues related to the privacy of data and robustness to communication failures. Thus, it is desirable to use a scalable decentralized algorithm for the implementation of DR. In this paper, a hierarchical DR scheme is proposed for peak minimization based on Dantzig-Wolfe decomposition (DWD). In addition, a time weighted maximization option is included in the cost function, which improves the quality of service for devices seeking to receive their desired energy sooner rather than later. This paper also demonstrates how the DWD algorithm can be implemented more efficiently through the calculation of the upper and lower cost bounds after each DWD iteration.

Local Storage Meets Local Demand: A Technical Solution to Future Power Distribution System

Future power systems are expected to integrate large-scale stochastic and intermittent generation and load due to reduced use of fossil fuel resources, including renewable energy sources (RES) and electric vehicles (EV). Inclusion of such resources poses challenges for the dynamic stability of synchronous transmission and distribution networks, not least in terms of generation where system inertia may not be wholly governed by large-scale generation but displaced by small-scale and localised generation. Energy storage systems (ESS) can limit the impact of dispersed and distributed generation by offering supporting reserve while accommodating large-scale EV connection; the latter (load) also participating in storage provision. In this paper, a local energy storage system (LESS) is proposed. The structure, requirement and optimal sizing of the LESS are discussed. Three operating modes are detailed, including: 1) storage pack management; 2) normal operation; and 3) contingency operation. The proposed LESS scheme is evaluated using simulation studies based on data obtained from the Northern Ireland regional and residential network.

An Electric Vehicle Dispatch Module for Demand-Side Energy Participation

The penetration of the electric vehicle (EV) has increased rapidly in recent years mainly as a consequence of advances in transport technology and power electronics and in response to global pressure to reduce carbon emissions and limit fossil fuel consumption. It is widely acknowledged that inappropriate provision and dispatch of EV charging can lead to negative impacts on power system infrastructure. This paper considers EV requirements and proposes a module which uses owner participation, through mobile phone apps and on-board diagnostics II (OBD-II), for scheduled vehicle charging. A multi-EV reference and single-EV real-time response (MRS2R) online algorithm is proposed to calculate the maximum and minimum adjustable limits of necessary capacity, which forms part of decision-making support in power system dispatch. The proposed EV dispatch module is evaluated in a case study and the influence of the mobile app, EV dispatch trending and commercial impact is explored.

Stimuli-Responsive Microneedle Arrays For On-Demand Drug Delivery

Pulsatile, or “on-demand”, delivery systems have the capability to deliver a therapeutic molecule at the right time/site of action and in the right amount (1). Pulsatile delivery systems present multiple benefits over conventional dosage forms and provide higher patient compliance. The combination of stimuli-responsive materials with the drug delivery capabilities of hydrogel-forming MN arrays (2) opens an interesting area of research. In the present work we describe, a stimuli-responsive hydrogel-forming microneedle (MN) array that enable delivery of a clinically-relevant model drug (ibuprofen) upon application of UV radiation (Figure 1A). MN arrays were prepared using a micromolding technique using a polymer prepared from 2-hydroxyethyl methacrylate (HEMA) and ethylene glycol dimethacrylate (EGDMA) (Figure 1B). The arrays were loaded with up to 5% (w/w) ibuprofen included in a light-responsible conjugate (3,5-dimethoxybenzoin conjugate) (2). The presence of the conjugate inside the MN arrays was confirmed by Raman spectroscopy measurements. MN arrays were tested in vitro showing that they were able to deliver up to three doses of 50 mg of ibuprofen after application of an optical trigger (wavelength of 365 nm) over a long period of time (up to 160 hours) (Figure 1C and 1D). The work presented here is a probe of concept and a modified version of the system should be used as UV radiation is shown to be the major etiologic agent in the development of skin cancers. Consequently, for future applications of this technology an alternative design should be developed. Based on the previous research dealing with hydrogel forming MN arrays a suitable strategy will be to use hydrogel-forming MN arrays containing a backing layer made with the material described in this work as the drug reservoir (2). Finally, a porous layer of a material that blocks UV radiation should be included between the MN array and the drug reservoir. Therefore radiation can be applied to the system without reaching the skin surface. Therefore after modification, the system described here interesting properties as “on-demand” release system for prolonged periods of time. This technology has potential for use in “on-demand” delivery of a wide range of drugs in a variety of applications relevant to enhanced patient care.

Apple Pollination: Demand Depends on Variety and Supply Depends on Pollinator Identity

Insect pollination underpins apple production but the extent to which different pollinator guilds supply this service, particularly across different apple varieties, is unknown. Such information is essential if appropriate orchard management practices are to be targeted and proportional to the potential benefits pollinator species may provide. Here we use a novel combination of pollinator effectiveness assays (floral visit effectiveness), orchard field surveys (flower visitation rate) and pollinator dependence manipulations (pollinator exclusion experiments) to quantify the supply of pollination services provided by four different pollinator guilds to the production of four commercial varieties of apple. We show that not all pollinators are equally effective at pollinating apples, with hoverflies being less effective than solitary bees and bumblebees, and the relative abundance of different pollinator guilds visiting apple flowers of different varieties varies significantly. Based on this, the taxa specific economic benefits to UK apple production have been established. The contribution of insect pollinators to the economic output in all varieties was estimated to be £92.1M across the UK, with contributions varying widely across taxa: solitary bees (£51.4M), honeybees (£21.4M), bumblebees (£18.6M) and hoverflies (£0.7M). This research highlights the differences in the economic benefits of four insect pollinator guilds to four major apple varieties in the UK. This information is essential to underpin appropriate investment in pollination services management and provides a model that can be used in other entomolophilous crops to improve our understanding of crop pollination ecology.

Responding to Fluctuating Demand for Healthcare Services

The level of demand for healthcare services can fluctuate quite strongly. Indeed, some parts of the healthcare service are renowned for having peaks of demand which challenge capacity. Dealing with fluctuations in demand is a common problem in many service industries. This article examines some of the strategies available for influencing the level of demand, including the use of price, communications and demand analysis. The article also outlines a wide variety of ways in which patients can be encouraged to be more tolerant of waiting to receive service from healthcare professionals. In particular, eight principles of waiting are discussed and illustrated in the context of healthcare services.

Using Information on Unconstrained Student Demand to Improve University Course Schedules

We examine how using information on unconstrained demand can improve operational decisions. Specifically, we examine the widespread problem of developing course schedules in not-for-profit university settings. We investigate the potential benefit of incorporating, into the scheduling process, information on the unconstrained demand of students for courses. Prior to this study, the status quo in our college, like that in a large proportion of university settings, was building the course schedule to avoid time conflicts between required courses and to minimize time conflicts between designated groups of courses, such as electives in a particular area. Compared to the status quo approach, we find that, based on three semester's worth of actual data, an approach that explicitly considers students’ course preferences improves a student-based metric of schedule quality on the order of over 4% (which is the equivalent, in our setting, of improving service for over 20% of students).