Assessing the benefits of crop albedo bio-geoengineering

It has been proposed that growing crop varieties with higher canopy albedo would lower summer-time temperatures over North America and Eurasia and provide a partial mitigation of global warming ('bio-geoengineering') (Ridgwell et al 2009 Curr. Biol. 19 1–5). Here, we use a coupled ocean–atmosphere–vegetation model (HadCM3) with prescribed agricultural regions, to investigate to what extent the regional effectiveness of crop albedo bio-geoengineering might be influenced by a progressively warming climate as well as assessing the impacts on regional hydrological cycling and primary productivity. Consistent with previous analysis, we find that the averted warming due to increasing crop canopy albedo by 0.04 is regionally and seasonally specific, with the largest cooling of ~1 °C for Europe in summer whereas in the low latitude monsoonal SE Asian regions of high density cropland, the greatest cooling is experienced in winter. In this study we identify potentially important positive impacts of increasing crop canopy albedo on soil moisture and primary productivity in European cropland regions, due to seasonal increases in precipitation. We also find that the background climate state has an important influence on the predicted regional effectiveness of bio-geoengineering on societally-relevant timescales (ca 100 years). The degree of natural climate variability and its dependence on greenhouse forcing that are evident in our simulations highlights the difficulties faced in the detection and verification of climate mitigation in geoengineering schemes. However, despite the small global impact, regionally focused schemes such as crop albedo bio-geoengineering have detection advantages.

Urban climates and global climate change

Cities and global climate change are closely linked: cities are where the bulk of greenhouse gas emissions take place through the consumption of fossil fuels; they are where an increasing proportion of the world’s people live; and they also generate their own climate – commonly characterized by the urban heat island. In this way, understanding the way cities affect the cycling of energy, water, and carbon to create an urban climate is a key element of climate mitigation and adaptation strategies, especially in the context of rising global temperatures and deteriorating air quality in many cities. As climate models resolve finer spatial-scales, they will need to represent those areas in which more than 50% of the world’s population already live to provide climate projections that are of greater use to planning and decision-making. Finally, many of the processes that are instrumental in determining urban climate are the same factors leading to global anthropogenic climate change, namely regional-scale land-use changes; increased energy use; and increased emissions of climatically-relevant atmospheric constituents. Cities are therefore both a case study for understanding, and an agent in mitigating, anthropogenic climate change. This chapter reviews and summarizes the current state of understanding of the physical basis of urban climates, as well as our ability to represent these in models. We argue that addressing the challenges of managing urban environments in a changing climate requires understanding the energy, water, and carbon balances for an urban landscape and, importantly, their interactions and feedbacks, together with their links to human behaviour and controls. We conclude with some suggestions for where further research is needed.

Upland streamwater nitrate dynamics across decadal to sub-daily timescales: a case study of Plynlimon, Wales

Streamwater nitrate dynamics in the River Hafren, Plynlimon, mid-Wales were investigated over decadal to sub-daily timescales using a range of statistical techniques. Long-term data were derived from weekly grab samples (1984–2010) and high-frequency data from 7-hourly samples (2007–2009) both measured at two sites: a headwater stream draining moorland and a downstream site below plantation forest. This study is one of the first to analyse upland streamwater nitrate dynamics across such a wide range of timescales and report on the principal mechanisms identified. The data analysis provided no clear evidence that the long-term decline in streamwater nitrate concentrations was related to a decline in atmospheric deposition alone, because nitrogen deposition first increased and then decreased during the study period. Increased streamwater temperature and denitrification may also have contributed to the decline in stream nitrate concentrations, the former through increased N uptake rates and the latter resultant from increased dissolved organic carbon concentrations. Strong seasonal cycles, with concentration minimums in the summer, were driven by seasonal flow minimums and seasonal biological activity enhancing nitrate uptake. Complex diurnal dynamics were observed, with seasonal changes in phase and amplitude of the cycling, and the diurnal dynamics were variable along the river. At the moorland site, a regular daily cycle, with minimum concentrations in the early afternoon, corresponding with peak air temperatures, indicated the importance of instream biological processing. At the downstream site, the diurnal dynamics were a composite signal, resultant from advection, dispersion and nitrate processing in the soils of the lower catchment. The diurnal streamwater nitrate dynamics were also affected by drought conditions. Enhanced diurnal cycling in Spring 2007 was attributed to increased nitrate availability in the post-drought period as well as low flow rates and high temperatures over this period. The combination of high-frequency short-term measurements and long-term monitoring provides a powerful tool for increasing understanding of the controls of element fluxes and concentrations in surface waters.

Environmental impact of geometric earthwork construction in pre-Columbian Amazonia

There is considerable controversy over whether pre-Columbian (pre-A.D. 1492) Amazonia was largely “pristine” and sparsely populated by slash-and-burn agriculturists, or instead a densely populated, domesticated landscape, heavily altered by extensive deforestation and anthropogenic burning. The discovery of hundreds of large geometric earthworks beneath intact rainforest across southern Amazonia challenges its status as a pristine landscape, and has been assumed to indicate extensive pre-Columbian deforestation by large populations. We tested these assumptions using coupled local- and regional-scale paleoecological records to reconstruct land use on an earthwork site in northeast Bolivia within the context of regional, climate-driven biome changes. This approach revealed evidence for an alternative scenario of Amazonian land use, which did not necessitate labor-intensive rainforest clearance for earthwork construction. Instead, we show that the inhabitants exploited a naturally open savanna landscape that they maintained around their settlement despite the climatically driven rainforest expansion that began ∼2,000 y ago across the region. Earthwork construction and agriculture on terra firme landscapes currently occupied by the seasonal rainforests of southern Amazonia may therefore not have necessitated large-scale deforestation using stone tools. This finding implies far less labor—and potentially lower population density—than previously supposed. Our findings demonstrate that current debates over the magnitude and nature of pre-Columbian Amazonian land use, and its impact on global biogeochemical cycling, are potentially flawed because they do not consider this land use in the context of climate-driven forest–savanna biome shifts through the mid-to-late Holocene.

Simulated last glacial maximum D14Catm and the deep glacial ocean carbon reservoir

∆14Catm has been estimated as 420 ± 80‰ (IntCal09) during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) compared to preindustrial times (0‰), but mechanisms explaining this difference are not yet resolved. ∆14Catm is a function of both cosmogenic production in the high atmosphere and of carbon cycling and partitioning in the Earth system. 10Be-based reconstructions show a contribution of the cosmogenic production term of only 200 ± 200‰ in the LGM. The remaining 220‰ have thus to be explained by changes in the carbon cycle. Recently, Bouttes et al. (2010, 2011) proposed to explain most of the difference in pCO2atm and δ13C between glacial and interglacial times as a result of brine-induced ocean stratification in the Southern Ocean. This mechanism involves the formation of very saline water masses that contribute to high carbon storage in the deep ocean. During glacial times, the sinking of brines is enhanced and more carbon is stored in the deep ocean, lowering pCO2atm. Moreover, the sinking of brines induces increased stratification in the Southern Ocean, which keeps the deep ocean well isolated from the surface. Such an isolated ocean reservoir would be characterized by a low ∆14C signature. Evidence of such 14C-depleted deep waters during the LGM has recently been found in the Southern Ocean (Skinner et al. 2010). The degassing of this carbon with low ∆14C would then reduce ∆14Catm throughout the deglaciation. We have further developed the CLIMBER-2 model to include a cosmogenic production of 14C as well as an interactive atmospheric 14C reservoir. We investigate the role of both the sinking of brine and cosmogenic production, alongside iron fertilization mechanisms, to explain changes in ∆14Catm during the last deglaciation. In our simulations, not only is the sinking of brine mechanism consistent with past ∆14C data, but it also explains most of the differences in pCO2atm and ∆14Catm between the LGM and preindustrial times. Finally, this study represents the first time to our knowledge that a model experiment explains glacial-interglacial differences in pCO2atm, δ13C, and ∆14C together with a coherent LGM climate.

Enhanced Australian carbon sink despite increased wildfire during the 21st century

Climate projections show Australia becoming significantly warmer during the 21st century, and precipitation decreasing over much of the continent. Such changes are conventionally considered to increase wildfire risk. Nevertheless, we show that burnt area increases in southern Australia, but decreases in northern Australia. Overall the projected increase in fire is small (0.72–1.31% of land area, depending on the climate scenario used), and does not cause a decrease in carbon storage. In fact, carbon storage increases by 3.7–5.6 Pg C (depending on the climate scenario used). Using a process-based model of vegetation dynamics, vegetation–fire interactions and carbon cycling, we show increased fire promotes a shift to more fire-adapted trees in wooded areas and their encroachment into grasslands, with an overall increase in forested area of 3.9–11.9%. Both changes increase carbon uptake and storage. The increase in woody vegetation increases the amount of coarse litter, which decays more slowly than fine litter hence leading to a relative reduction in overall heterotrophic respiration, further reducing carbon losses. Direct CO2 effects increase woody cover, water-use efficiency and productivity, such that carbon storage is increased by 8.5–14.8 Pg C compared to simulations in which CO2 is held constant at modern values. CO2 effects tend to increase burnt area, fire fluxes and therefore carbon losses in arid areas, but increase vegetation density and reduce burnt area in wooded areas.

A new data set of soil mineralogy for dust-cycle modeling

The mineralogy of airborne dust affects the impact of dust particles on direct and indirect radiative forcing, on atmospheric chemistry and on biogeochemical cycling. It is determined partly by the mineralogy of the dust-source regions and partly by size-dependent fractionation during erosion and transport. Here we present a data set that characterizes the clay and silt-sized fractions of global soil units in terms of the abundance of 12 minerals that are important for dust–climate interactions: quartz, feldspars, illite, smectite, kaolinite, chlorite, vermiculite, mica, calcite, gypsum, hematite and goethite. The basic mineralogical information is derived from the literature, and is then expanded following explicit rules, in order to characterize as many soil units as possible. We present three alternative realizations of the mineralogical maps, taking the uncertainties in the mineralogical data into account. We examine the implications of the new database for calculations of the single scattering albedo of airborne dust and thus for dust radiative forcing.

Phosphorus fertilisation and large legume species affect jarrah forest restoration after bauxite mining

Re-establishing nutrient-cycling is often a key goal of mine-site restoration. This goal can be achieved by applying fertilisers (particularly P) in combination with seeding N-fixing legumes. However, the effect of this strategy on other key restoration goals such as the establishment and growth of non-leguminous species has received little attention. We investigated the effects of P-application rates either singly, or in combination with seeding seven large understorey legume species, on jarrah forest restoration after bauxite mining. Five years after P application and seeding, legume species richness, density and cover were higher in the legume-seeded treatment. However, the increased establishment of legumes did not lead to increased soil N. Increasing P-application rates from 0 to 80 kg P ha−1 did not affect legume species richness, but significantly reduced legume density and increased legume cover: cover was maximal (∼50%) where 80 kg P ha−1 had been applied with large legume seeds. Increasing P-application had no effect on species richness of non-legume species, but increased the density of weeds and native ephemerals. Cover of non-legume species decreased with increasing P-application rates and was lower in plots where large legumes had been seeded compared with non-seeded plots. There was a significant legume × P interaction on weed and ephemeral density: at 80 kg P ha−1 the decline in density of these groups was greatest where legumes were seeded. In addition, the decline in cover for non-legume species with increasing P was greatest when legumes were seeded. Applying 20 kg P ha−1 significantly increased tree growth compared with tree growth in unfertilised plots, but growth was not increased further at 80 kg ha−1 and tree growth was not affected by seeding large legumes. Taken together, these data indicate that 80 kg ha−1 P-fertiliser in combination with (seeding) large legumes maximised vegetation cover at five years but could be suboptimal for re-establishing a jarrah forest community that, like unmined forest, contains a diverse community of slow-growing re-sprouter species. The species richness and cover of non-legume understorey species, especially the resprouters, was highest in plots that received either 0 or 20 kg ha−1 P and where large legumes had not been seeded. Therefore, our findings suggest that moderation of P-fertiliser and legumes could be the best strategy to fulfil the multiple restoration goals of establishing vegetation cover, while at the same time maximising tree growth and species richness of restored forest.

Interacting controls on innate sources of CO2 efflux from a calcareous arid zone soil under experimental acidification and wetting

More than half of global soil carbon is stored as carbonates, primarily in arid and semi-arid zones. Climate change models predict more frequent and severe rainfall events in some parts of the globe, many of which are dominated by calcareous soils. Such events trigger substantial increases in soil CO2 efflux. We hypothesised that the primary source of CO2 emissions from calcareous, arid zone soil during a single wetting event is abiotic and that soil acidification and wetting have a positive, potentially interacting, effect. We manipulated soil pH, soil moisture, and controlled soil respiration by gamma irradiating half of an 11 day incubation experiment. All manipulated experimental treatments had a rapid and enormous effect on CO2 emission. Respiration contributed ca. 5% of total CO2 efflux; the major source (carbonate buffering) varied depending on the extent of acidification and wetting. Maximum CO2 efflux occurred when pH was lowest and at intermediate matric potential. CO2 efflux was lowest at native pH when soil was air dry. Our data suggest that there may be an underestimate of soil-atmosphere carbon fluxes in arid ecosystems with calcareous soils. There is also a clear potential that these soils may become net carbon sources depending on changes in rainfall patterns, rainfall acidity, and future land management. Our findings have major implications for carbon cycling in arid zone soil and further study of carbon dynamics in these terrestrial systems at a landscape level will be required if we are to improve global climate and carbon cycling models.

Global patterns of plant root colonization intensity by mycorrhizal fungi explained by climate and soil chemistry

Aim Most vascular plants on Earth form mycorrhizae, a symbiotic relationship between plants and fungi. Despite the broad recognition of the importance of mycorrhizae for global carbon and nutrient cycling, we do not know how soil and climate variables relate to the intensity of colonization of plant roots by mycorrhizal fungi. Here we quantify the global patterns of these relationships. Location Global. Methods Data on plant root colonization intensities by the two dominant types of mycorrhizal fungi world-wide, arbuscular (4887 plant species in 233 sites) and ectomycorrhizal fungi (125 plant species in 92 sites), were compiled from published studies. Data for climatic and soil factors were extracted from global datasets. For a given mycorrhizal type, we calculated at each site the mean root colonization intensity by mycorrhizal fungi across all potentially mycorrhizal plant species found at the site, and subjected these data to generalized additive model regression analysis with environmental factors as predictor variables. Results We show for the first time that at the global scale the intensity of plant root colonization by arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi strongly relates to warm-season temperature, frost periods and soil carbon-to-nitrogen ratio, and is highest at sites featuring continental climates with mild summers and a high availability of soil nitrogen. In contrast, the intensity of ectomycorrhizal infection in plant roots is related to soil acidity, soil carbon-to-nitrogen ratio and seasonality of precipitation, and is highest at sites with acidic soils and relatively constant precipitation levels. Main conclusions We provide the first quantitative global maps of intensity of mycorrhizal colonization based on environmental drivers, and suggest that environmental changes will affect distinct types of mycorrhizae differently. Future analyses of the potential effects of environmental change on global carbon and nutrient cycling via mycorrhizal pathways will need to take into account the relationships discovered in this study.

Temperature affects microbial decomposition of cadavers (Rattus rattus) in contrasting soils

The ecology of soils associated with dead mammals (i.e. cadavers) is poorly understood. Although temperature and soil type are well known to influence the decomposition of other organic resource patches, the effect of these variables on the degradation of cadavers in soil has received little experimental investigation. To address this, cadavers of juvenile rats (Rattus rattus) were buried in one of three contrasting soils (Sodosol, Rudosol, and Vertosol) from tropical savanna ecosystems in Queensland, Australia and incubated at 29 °C, 22 °C, or 15 °C in a laboratory setting. Cadavers and soils were destructively sampled at intervals of 7 days over an incubation period of 28 days. Measurements of decomposition included cadaver mass loss, carbon dioxide–carbon (CO2–C) evolution, microbial biomass carbon (MBC), protease activity, phosphodiesterase activity, and soil pH, which were all significantly positively affected by cadaver burial. A temperature effect was observed where peaks or differences in decomposition that at occurred at higher temperature would occur at later sample periods at lower temperature. Soil type also had an important effect on some measured parameters. These findings have important implications for a largely unexplored area of soil ecology and nutrient cycling, which are significant for forensic science, cemetery planning and livestock carcass disposal.

Autoclaving kills soil microbes yet soil enzymes remain active

Biocidal treatment of soil is used to remove or inhibit soil microbial activity, and thus provides insight into the relationship between soil biology and soil processes. Chemical (soil pH, phosphodiesterase, protease) and biological (substrate induced respiration) characteristics of three contrasting soils from tropical savanna ecosystems in north Queensland, Australia were measured in field fresh samples and following autoclaving (121 °C/103 kPa for 30 min on two consecutive days). Autoclaving treatment killed the active soil microbial biomass and significantly decreased protease activity (∼90%) in all three soils. Phosphodiesterase activity in kaolinitic soils also significantly decreased by 78% and 92%. However, autoclave treatment of smectitic soil only decreased phosphodiesterase activity by 4% only. This study demonstrates phosphodiesterase can remain stable in extreme conditions. This might be a characteristic vital to the cycling of phosphorus in shrink–swell clays in Australian tropical savanna ecosystems.

The status and challenge of global fire modelling

Biomass burning impacts vegetation dynamics, biogeochemical cycling, atmospheric chemistry, and climate, with sometimes deleterious socio-economic impacts. Under future climate projections it is often expected that the risk of wildfires will increase. Our ability to predict the magnitude and geographic pattern of future fire impacts rests on our ability to model fire regimes, either using well-founded empirical relationships or process-based models with good predictive skill. A large variety of models exist today and it is still unclear which type of model or degree of complexity is required to model fire adequately at regional to global scales. This is the central question underpinning the creation of the Fire Model Intercomparison Project - FireMIP, an international project to compare and evaluate existing global fire models against benchmark data sets for present-day and historical conditions. In this paper we summarise the current state-of-the-art in fire regime modelling and model evaluation, and outline what essons may be learned from FireMIP.

SHIMMER (1.0): a novel mathematical model for microbial and biogeochemical dynamics in glacier forefield ecosystems

SHIMMER (Soil biogeocHemIcal Model for Microbial Ecosystem Response) is a new numerical modelling framework designed to simulate microbial dynamics and biogeochemical cycling during initial ecosystem development in glacier forefield soils. However, it is also transferable to other extreme ecosystem types (such as desert soils or the surface of glaciers). The rationale for model development arises from decades of empirical observations in glacier forefields, and enables a quantitative and process focussed approach. Here, we provide a detailed description of SHIMMER, test its performance in two case study forefields: the Damma Glacier (Switzerland) and the Athabasca Glacier (Canada) and analyse sensitivity to identify the most sensitive and unconstrained model parameters. Results show that the accumulation of microbial biomass is highly dependent on variation in microbial growth and death rate constants, Q10 values, the active fraction of microbial biomass and the reactivity of organic matter. The model correctly predicts the rapid accumulation of microbial biomass observed during the initial stages of succession in the forefields of both the case study systems. Primary production is responsible for the initial build-up of labile substrate that subsequently supports heterotrophic growth. However, allochthonous contributions of organic matter, and nitrogen fixation, are important in sustaining this productivity. The development and application of SHIMMER also highlights aspects of these systems that require further empirical research: quantifying nutrient budgets and biogeochemical rates, exploring seasonality and microbial growth and cell death. This will lead to increased understanding of how glacier forefields contribute to global biogeochemical cycling and climate under future ice retreat.

Behavioral economics, wearable devices, and cooperative games: results from a population-based intervention to increase physical activity

Background: Health care literature supports the development of accessible interventions that integrate behavioral economics, wearable devices, principles of evidence-based behavior change, and community support. However, there are limited real-world examples of large scale, population-based, member-driven reward platforms. Subsequently, a paucity of outcome data exists and health economic effects remain largely theoretical. To complicate matters, an emerging area of research is defining the role of Superusers, the small percentage of unusually engaged digital health participants who may influence other members. Objective: The objective of this preliminary study is to analyze descriptive data from GOODcoins, a self-guided, free-to-consumer engagement and rewards platform incentivizing walking, running and cycling. Registered members accessed the GOODcoins platform through PCs, tablets or mobile devices, and had the opportunity to sync wearables to track activity. Following registration, members were encouraged to join gamified group challenges and compare their progress with that of others. As members met challenge targets, they were rewarded with GOODcoins, which could be redeemed for planet- or people-friendly products. Methods: Outcome data were obtained from the GOODcoins custom SQL database. The reporting period was December 1, 2014 to May 1, 2015. Descriptive self-report data were analyzed using MySQL and MS Excel. Results: The study period includes data from 1298 users who were connected to an exercise tracking device. Females consisted of 52.6% (n=683) of the study population, 33.7% (n=438) were between the ages of 20-29, and 24.8% (n=322) were between the ages of 30-39. 77.5% (n=1006) of connected and active members met daily-recommended physical activity guidelines of 30 minutes, with a total daily average activity of 107 minutes (95% CI 90, 124). Of all connected and active users, 96.1% (n=1248) listed walking as their primary activity. For members who exchanged GOODcoins, the mean balance was 4,000 (95% CI 3850, 4150) at time of redemption, and 50.4% (n=61) of exchanges were for fitness or outdoor products, while 4.1% (n=5) were for food-related items. Participants were most likely to complete challenges when rewards were between 201-300 GOODcoins. Conclusions: The purpose of this study is to form a baseline for future research. Overall, results indicate that challenges and incentives may be effective for connected and active members, and may play a role in achieving daily-recommended activity guidelines. Registrants were typically younger, walking was the primary activity, and rewards were mainly exchanged for fitness or outdoor products. Remaining to be determined is whether members were already physically active at time of registration and are representative of healthy adherers, or were previously inactive and were incentivized to change their behavior. As challenges are gamified, there is an opportunity to investigate the role of superusers and healthy adherers, impacts on behavioral norms, and how cooperative games and incentives can be leveraged across stratified populations. Study limitations and future research agendas are discussed.