938 resultados para Currency forecast errors


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In response to the sustained pressure recently experienced by the Danish krone, Denmark may be forced to abandon its 30-year old peg to the euro. If this scenario unfolds, this CEPS Commentary argues that it will be no bad thing for the eurozone.

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The currency crisis that started in Russia and Ukraine during 2014 has spread to neighbouring countries in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). The collapse of the Russian ruble, expected recession in Russia, the stronger US dollar and lower commodity prices have negatively affected the entire region, with the consequence that the European Union's entire eastern neighbourhood faces serious economic, social and political challenges because of weaker currencies, higher inflation, decreasing export revenues and labour remittances, net capital outflows and stagnating or declining GDP. •The crisis requires a proper policy response from CIS governments, the International Monetary Fund and the EU. The Russian-Ukrainian conflict in Donbass requires rapid resolution, as the first step to return Russia to the mainstream of global economic and political cooperation. Beyond that, both Russia and Ukraine need deep structural and institutional reforms. The EU should deepen economic ties with those CIS countries that are interested in a closer relationship with Europe. The IMF should provide additional assistance to those CIS countries that have become victims of a new regional contagion, while preparing for the possibility of more emerging-market crises arising from slower growth, the stronger dollar and lower commodity prices.

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Greece and its creditors seem to be engaged in a game of chicken: both sides expect the other to yield at the last moment. The game will almost certainly end with each side deviating somewhat from its preferred course. This High-Level Brief discusses how a parallel currency could contribute to a resolution of the conflict. In the author's view, it would be the least-bad option for both sides among three possible options on the table.

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In contrast to his contribution just a month ago, which examined how a Greek parallel currency to the euro could allow the Greek government to gain some room for manoeuver in fiscal policy while at the same time continuing the adjustment programme demanded by the country’s creditors, Thomas Mayer explores in the present note the question of how the Greek population could still keep the euro after a default of its government. Contrary to general belief, he finds that Grexit and the reintroduction of the euro as a foreign currency would probably be positive for the Greek economy, although its creditors would be hard hit. It is therefore primarily in their interest that default and Grexit are avoided.

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This paper reviews the steps that China has taken towards financial reform with a particular focus on capital account liberalisation and internationalisation of the use of the renminbi. • After a slowdown in reform momentum during the global financial crisis, there is a clear push towards reform, especially in terms of RMB internationalisation. • During the same period, though, China’s debt has doubled, reaching levels that are clearly above those of most emerging markets. This increases the risks embedded in financial reform and, in particular, capital account liberalisation. • At this juncture, however, China has no option but to press for reform since the current growth model is no longer working and China urgently needs to better allocate its savings.

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Transportation Department, Office of Intermodal Transportation, Washington, D.C.