Fluvio-morphological processes of meander bends - Combining conventional field measurements, close-range remote sensing and computational modelling

Meandering rivers have been perceived to evolve rather similarly around the world independently of the location or size of the river. Despite the many consistent processes and characteristics they have also been noted to show complex and unique sets of fluviomorphological processes in which local factors play important role. These complex interactions of flow and morphology affect notably the development of the river. Comprehensive and fundamental field, flume and theoretically based studies of fluviomorphological processes in meandering rivers have been carried out especially during the latter part of the 20th century. However, as these studies have been carried out with traditional field measurements techniques their spatial and temporal resolution is not competitive to the level achievable today. The hypothesis of this study is that, by exploiting e increased spatial and temporal resolution of the data, achieved by combining conventional field measurements with a range of modern technologies, will provide new insights to the spatial patterns of the flow-sediment interaction in meandering streams, which have perceived to show notable variation in space and time. This thesis shows how the modern technologies can be combined to derive very high spatial and temporal resolution data on fluvio-morphological processes over meander bends. The flow structure over the bends is recorded in situ using acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) and the spatial and temporal resolution of the flow data is enhanced using 2D and 3D CFD over various meander bends. The CFD are also exploited to simulate sediment transport. Multi-temporal terrestrial laser scanning (TLS), mobile laser scanning (MLS) and echo sounding data are used to measure the flow-based changes and formations over meander bends and to build the computational models. The spatial patterns of erosion and deposition over meander bends are analysed relative to the measured and modelled flow field and sediment transport. The results are compared with the classic theories of the processes in meander bends. Mainly, the results of this study follow well the existing theories and results of previous studies. However, some new insights regarding to the spatial and temporal patterns of the flow-sediment interaction in a natural sand-bed meander bend are provided. The results of this study show the advantages of the rapid and detailed measurements techniques and the achieved spatial and temporal resolution provided by CFD, unachievable with field measurements. The thesis also discusses the limitations which remain in the measurement and modelling methods and in understanding of fluvial geomorphology of meander bends. Further, the hydro- and morphodynamic models’ sensitivity to user-defined parameters is tested, and the modelling results are assessed against detailed field measurement. The study is implemented in the meandering sub-Arctic Pulmanki River in Finland. The river is unregulated and sand-bed and major morphological changes occur annually on the meander point bars, which are inundated only during the snow-melt-induced spring floods. The outcome of this study applies to sandbed meandering rivers in regions where normally one significant flood event occurs annually, such as Arctic areas with snow-melt induced spring floods, and where the point bars of the meander bends are inundated only during the flood events.

Simulating the dynamics of silver market using computational market dynamics

Traditional econometric approaches in modeling the dynamics of equity and commodity markets, have, made great progress in the past decades. However, they assume rationality among the economic agents and and do not capture the dynamics that produce extreme events (black swans), due to deviation from the rationality assumption. The purpose of this study is to simulate the dynamics of silver markets by using the novel computational market dynamics approach. To this end, the daily data from the period of 1st March 2000 to 1st March 2013 of closing prices of spot silver prices has been simulated with the Jabłonska-Capasso-Morale(JCM) model. The Maximum Likelihood approach has been employed to calibrate the acquired data with JCM. Statistical analysis of the simulated series with respect to the actual one has been conducted to evaluate model performance. The model captures the animal spirits dynamics present in the data under evaluation well.

Prediction of exposed domains of envelope glycoprotein in Indian HIV-1 isolates and experimental confirmation of their immunogenicity in humans

We describe the impact of subtype differences on the seroreactivity of linear antigenic epitopes in envelope glycoprotein of HIV-1 isolates from different geographical locations. By computer analysis, we predicted potential antigenic sites of envelope glycoprotein (gp120 and gp4l) of this virus. For this purpose, after fetching sequences of proteins of interest from data banks, values of hydrophilicity, flexibility, accessibility, inverted hydrophobicity, and secondary structure were considered. We identified several potential antigenic epitopes in a B subtype strain of envelope glycoprotein of HIV-1 (IIIB). Solid- phase peptide synthesis methods of Merrifield and Fmoc chemistry were used for synthesizing peptides. These synthetic peptides corresponded mainly to the C2, V3 and CD4 binding sites of gp120 and some parts of the ectodomain of gp41. The reactivity of these peptides was tested by ELISA against different HIV-1-positive sera from different locations in India. For two of these predicted epitopes, the corresponding Indian consensus sequences (LAIERYLKQQLLGWG and DIIGDIRQAHCNISEDKWNET) (subtype C) were also synthesized and their reactivity was tested by ELISA. These peptides also distinguished HIV-1-positive sera of Indians with C subtype infections from sera from HIV-negative subjects.

Clinical signs of pneumonia in children: association with and prediction of diagnosis by fuzzy sets theory

The present study compares the performance of stochastic and fuzzy models for the analysis of the relationship between clinical signs and diagnosis. Data obtained for 153 children concerning diagnosis (pneumonia, other non-pneumonia diseases, absence of disease) and seven clinical signs were divided into two samples, one for analysis and other for validation. The former was used to derive relations by multi-discriminant analysis (MDA) and by fuzzy max-min compositions (fuzzy), and the latter was used to assess the predictions drawn from each type of relation. MDA and fuzzy were closely similar in terms of prediction, with correct allocation of 75.7 to 78.3% of patients in the validation sample, and displaying only a single instance of disagreement: a patient with low level of toxemia was mistaken as not diseased by MDA and correctly taken as somehow ill by fuzzy. Concerning relations, each method provided different information, each revealing different aspects of the relations between clinical signs and diagnoses. Both methods agreed on pointing X-ray, dyspnea, and auscultation as better related with pneumonia, but only fuzzy was able to detect relations of heart rate, body temperature, toxemia and respiratory rate with pneumonia. Moreover, only fuzzy was able to detect a relationship between heart rate and absence of disease, which allowed the detection of six malnourished children whose diagnoses as healthy are, indeed, disputable. The conclusion is that even though fuzzy sets theory might not improve prediction, it certainly does enhance clinical knowledge since it detects relationships not visible to stochastic models.

Fuzzy expert system in the prediction of neonatal resuscitation

In view of the importance of anticipating the occurrence of critical situations in medicine, we propose the use of a fuzzy expert system to predict the need for advanced neonatal resuscitation efforts in the delivery room. This system relates the maternal medical, obstetric and neonatal characteristics to the clinical conditions of the newborn, providing a risk measurement of need of advanced neonatal resuscitation measures. It is structured as a fuzzy composition developed on the basis of the subjective perception of danger of nine neonatologists facing 61 antenatal and intrapartum clinical situations which provide a degree of association with the risk of occurrence of perinatal asphyxia. The resulting relational matrix describes the association between clinical factors and risk of perinatal asphyxia. Analyzing the inputs of the presence or absence of all 61 clinical factors, the system returns the rate of risk of perinatal asphyxia as output. A prospectively collected series of 304 cases of perinatal care was analyzed to ascertain system performance. The fuzzy expert system presented a sensitivity of 76.5% and specificity of 94.8% in the identification of the need for advanced neonatal resuscitation measures, considering a cut-off value of 5 on a scale ranging from 0 to 10. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.93. The identification of risk situations plays an important role in the planning of health care. These preliminary results encourage us to develop further studies and to refine this model, which is intended to implement an auxiliary system able to help health care staff to make decisions in perinatal care.

Kalman filter for computational market dynamics

Kalman filter is a recursive mathematical power tool that plays an increasingly vital role in innumerable fields of study. The filter has been put to service in a multitude of studies involving both time series modelling and financial time series modelling. Modelling time series data in Computational Market Dynamics (CMD) can be accomplished using the Jablonska-Capasso-Morale (JCM) model. Maximum likelihood approach has always been utilised to estimate the parameters of the JCM model. The purpose of this study is to discover if the Kalman filter can be effectively utilized in CMD. Ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), with 50 ensemble members, applied to US sugar prices spanning the period of January, 1960 to February, 2012 was employed for this work. The real data and Kalman filter trajectories showed no significant discrepancies, hence indicating satisfactory performance of the technique. Since only US sugar prices were utilized, it would be interesting to discover the nature of results if other data sets are employed.

Computational studies of deformation in stainless steel rings due to torch heating

A support ring of AISI 304L stainless steel that holds vertical, parallel wires arranged in a circle forming a cylinder is studied. The wires are attached to the ring with heat-induced shrinkage. When the ring is heated with a torch the heat affected zone tries to expand while the adjacent cool structure obstructs the expansion causing upsetting. During cooling, the ring shrinks smaller than its original size clamping the wires. The most important requirement for the ring is that it should be as round as possible and the deformations should occur as overall shrinkage in the ring diameter. A three-dimensional nonlinear transient sequential thermo-structural Abaqus model is used together with a Fortran code that enters the heat flux to each affected element. The local and overall deformations in one ring inflicted by the heating are studied with a small amount of inspection on residual stresses. A variety of different cases are chosen to be studied with the model constructed to provide directional knowledge; torch flux with the means of speed, location of the wires, heating location and structural factors. The decrease of heating speed increases heat flux that rises the temperature increasing shrinkage. In a single progressive heating uneven distribution of shrinkage appears to the start/end region that can be partially fixed with using speeded heating’s to strengthen the heating of that region. Location of the wires affect greatly to the caused shrinkage unlike heating location. The ring structure affects also greatly to the shrinkage; smaller diameter, bigger ring height, thinner thickness and greater number of wires increase shrinkage.

A novel polar-based human face recognition computational model

Motivated by a recently proposed biologically inspired face recognition approach, we investigated the relation between human behavior and a computational model based on Fourier-Bessel (FB) spatial patterns. We measured human recognition performance of FB filtered face images using an 8-alternative forced-choice method. Test stimuli were generated by converting the images from the spatial to the FB domain, filtering the resulting coefficients with a band-pass filter, and finally taking the inverse FB transformation of the filtered coefficients. The performance of the computational models was tested using a simulation of the psychophysical experiment. In the FB model, face images were first filtered by simulated V1- type neurons and later analyzed globally for their content of FB components. In general, there was a higher human contrast sensitivity to radially than to angularly filtered images, but both functions peaked at the 11.3-16 frequency interval. The FB-based model presented similar behavior with regard to peak position and relative sensitivity, but had a wider frequency band width and a narrower response range. The response pattern of two alternative models, based on local FB analysis and on raw luminance, strongly diverged from the human behavior patterns. These results suggest that human performance can be constrained by the type of information conveyed by polar patterns, and consequently that humans might use FB-like spatial patterns in face processing.

Utility of a novel risk score for prediction of ventricular tachycardia and cardiac death in chronic Chagas disease - the SEARCH-RIO study

The SEARCH-RIO study prospectively investigated electrocardiogram (ECG)-derived variables in chronic Chagas disease (CCD) as predictors of cardiac death and new onset ventricular tachycardia (VT). Cardiac arrhythmia is a major cause of death in CCD, and electrical markers may play a significant role in risk stratification. One hundred clinically stable outpatients with CCD were enrolled in this study. They initially underwent a 12-lead resting ECG, signal-averaged ECG, and 24-h ambulatory ECG. Abnormal Q-waves, filtered QRS duration, intraventricular electrical transients (IVET), 24-h standard deviation of normal RR intervals (SDNN), and VT were assessed. Echocardiograms assessed left ventricular ejection fraction. Predictors of cardiac death and new onset VT were identified in a Cox proportional hazard model. During a mean follow-up of 95.3 months, 36 patients had adverse events: 22 new onset VT (mean±SD, 18.4±4‰/year) and 20 deaths (26.4±1.8‰/year). In multivariate analysis, only Q-wave (hazard ratio, HR=6.7; P<0.001), VT (HR=5.3; P<0.001), SDNN<100 ms (HR=4.0; P=0.006), and IVET+ (HR=3.0; P=0.04) were independent predictors of the composite endpoint of cardiac death and new onset VT. A prognostic score was developed by weighting points proportional to beta coefficients and summing-up: Q-wave=2; VT=2; SDNN<100 ms=1; IVET+=1. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis optimized the cutoff value at >1. In 10,000 bootstraps, the C-statistic of this novel score was non-inferior to a previously validated (Rassi) score (0.89±0.03 and 0.80±0.05, respectively; test for non-inferiority: P<0.001). In CCD, surface ECG-derived variables are predictors of cardiac death and new onset VT.

HIGH PRESSURE PHASE EQUILIBRIUM: PREDICTION OF ESSENTIAL OIL SOLUBILITY

This work describes a method to predict the solubility of essential oils in supercritical carbon dioxide. The method is based on the formulation proposed in 1979 by Asselineau, Bogdanic and Vidal. The Peng-Robinson and Soave-Redlich-Kwong cubic equations of state were used with the van der Waals mixing rules with two interaction parameters. Method validation was accomplished calculating orange essential oil solubility in pressurized carbon dioxide. The solubility of orange essential oil in carbon dioxide calculated at 308.15 K for pressures of 50 to 70 bar varied from 1.7± 0.1 to 3.6± 0.1 mg/g. For same the range of conditions, experimental solubility varied from 1.7± 0.1 to 3.6± 0.1 mg/g. Predicted values were not very sensitive to initial oil composition.

Structural and Computational Existence Results for Multidimensional Subshifts

Symbolic dynamics is a branch of mathematics that studies the structure of infinite sequences of symbols, or in the multidimensional case, infinite grids of symbols. Classes of such sequences and grids defined by collections of forbidden patterns are called subshifts, and subshifts of finite type are defined by finitely many forbidden patterns. The simplest examples of multidimensional subshifts are sets of Wang tilings, infinite arrangements of square tiles with colored edges, where adjacent edges must have the same color. Multidimensional symbolic dynamics has strong connections to computability theory, since most of the basic properties of subshifts cannot be recognized by computer programs, but are instead characterized by some higher-level notion of computability. This dissertation focuses on the structure of multidimensional subshifts, and the ways in which it relates to their computational properties. In the first part, we study the subpattern posets and Cantor-Bendixson ranks of countable subshifts of finite type, which can be seen as measures of their structural complexity. We show, by explicitly constructing subshifts with the desired properties, that both notions are essentially restricted only by computability conditions. In the second part of the dissertation, we study different methods of defining (classes of ) multidimensional subshifts, and how they relate to each other and existing methods. We present definitions that use monadic second-order logic, a more restricted kind of logical quantification called quantifier extension, and multi-headed finite state machines. Two of the definitions give rise to hierarchies of subshift classes, which are a priori infinite, but which we show to collapse into finitely many levels. The quantifier extension provides insight to the somewhat mysterious class of multidimensional sofic subshifts, since we prove a characterization for the class of subshifts that can extend a sofic subshift into a nonsofic one.

Scalable Feature Selection Applications for Genome-Wide Association Studies of Complex Diseases

Personalized medicine will revolutionize our capabilities to combat disease. Working toward this goal, a fundamental task is the deciphering of geneticvariants that are predictive of complex diseases. Modern studies, in the formof genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have afforded researchers with the opportunity to reveal new genotype-phenotype relationships through the extensive scanning of genetic variants. These studies typically contain over half a million genetic features for thousands of individuals. Examining this with methods other than univariate statistics is a challenging task requiring advanced algorithms that are scalable to the genome-wide level. In the future, next-generation sequencing studies (NGS) will contain an even larger number of common and rare variants. Machine learning-based feature selection algorithms have been shown to have the ability to effectively create predictive models for various genotype-phenotype relationships. This work explores the problem of selecting genetic variant subsets that are the most predictive of complex disease phenotypes through various feature selection methodologies, including filter, wrapper and embedded algorithms. The examined machine learning algorithms were demonstrated to not only be effective at predicting the disease phenotypes, but also doing so efficiently through the use of computational shortcuts. While much of the work was able to be run on high-end desktops, some work was further extended so that it could be implemented on parallel computers helping to assure that they will also scale to the NGS data sets. Further, these studies analyzed the relationships between various feature selection methods and demonstrated the need for careful testing when selecting an algorithm. It was shown that there is no universally optimal algorithm for variant selection in GWAS, but rather methodologies need to be selected based on the desired outcome, such as the number of features to be included in the prediction model. It was also demonstrated that without proper model validation, for example using nested cross-validation, the models can result in overly-optimistic prediction accuracies and decreased generalization ability. It is through the implementation and application of machine learning methods that one can extract predictive genotype–phenotype relationships and biological insights from genetic data sets.

Using Computational Fluid-Dynamics (CFD) for the evaluation of beer pasteurization: effect of orientation of cans

In-package pasteurization is the most used method for beer microbiological stabilization. The search for safer and better quality food has created a need to better understand the processes involved in producing it. However, little is known about the temperature and velocity profiles during the thermal processes of liquid foods in commercial packaging, which results in over-dimensioned processes to guarantee safety, decreasing the sensorial and nutritional characteristics of the product and increasing process costs. Simulations using Computational Fluid-Dynamics (CFD) have been used by various authors to evaluate those processes. The objective of the present paper was to evaluate the effect of packaging orientation in the pasteurization of beer in a commercial aluminum can using CFD. A heating process was simulated at 60 ºC up to 15 PUs (a conventional beer process, in which 1 Pasteurization Unit (PU) is equivalent to 1minute at 60 ºC). The temperature profile and convection current velocity along the process and the variation of the PUs were evaluated in relation to time considering the cans in the conventional, inverted, and horizontal positions. The temperature and velocity profiles were similar to those presented in the literature. The package position did not result in process improvement.

Application of mathematical models for the prediction of adsorption isotherms in solid mixture for mango powder refreshment

Solid mixtures for refreshment are already totally integrated to the Brazilian consumers' daily routine, because of their quick preparation method, yield and reasonable price - quite lower if compared to 'ready-to-drink' products or products for prompt consumption, what makes them economically more accessible to low-income populations. Within such a context, the aim of this work was to evaluate the physicochemical and mineral composition, as well as the hygroscopic behavior of four different brands of solid mixture for mango refreshment. The BET, GAB, Oswim and Henderson mathematical models were built through the adjustment of experimental data to the isotherms of adsorption. Results from the physiochemical evaluation showed that the solid mixtures for refreshments are considerable sources of ascorbic acid and reductor sugar; and regarding mineral compounds, they are significant sources of calcium, sodium and potassium. It was also verified that the solid mixtures for refreshments of the four studied brands are considered highly hygroscopic.

Computational fluid dynamics evaluation of liquid food thermal process in a brick shaped package

Food processes must ensure safety and high-quality products for a growing demand consumer creating the need for better knowledge of its unit operations. The Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) has been widely used for better understanding the food thermal processes, and it is one of the safest and most frequently used methods for food preservation. However, there is no single study in the literature describing thermal process of liquid foods in a brick shaped package. The present study evaluated such process and the influence of its orientation on the process lethality. It demonstrated the potential of using CFD to evaluate thermal processes of liquid foods and the importance of rheological characterization and convection in thermal processing of liquid foods. It also showed that packaging orientation does not result in different sterilization values during thermal process of the evaluated fluids in the brick shaped package.