870 resultados para Combination of short term inflation forecast models


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This paper evaluates how long-term records could and should be utilized in conservation policy and practice. Traditionally, there has been an extremely limited use of long-term ecological records (greater than 50 years) in biodiversity conservation. There are a number of reasons why such records tend to be discounted, including a perception of poor scale of resolution in both time and space, and the lack of accessibility of long temporal records to non-specialists. Probably more important, however, is the perception that even if suitable temporal records are available, their roles are purely descriptive, simply demonstrating what has occurred before in Earth’s history, and are of little use in the actual practice of conservation. This paper asks why this is the case and whether there is a place for the temporal record in conservation management. Key conservation initiatives related to extinctions, identification of regions of greatest diversity/threat, climate change and biological invasions are addressed. Examples of how a temporal record can add information that is of direct practicable applicability to these issues are highlighted. These include (i) the identification of species at the end of their evolutionary lifespan and therefore most at risk from extinction, (ii) the setting of realistic goals and targets for conservation ‘hotspots’, and (iii) the identification of various management tools for the maintenance/restoration of a desired biological state. For climate change conservation strategies, the use of long-term ecological records in testing the predictive power of species envelope models is highlighted, along with the potential of fossil records to examine the impact of sea-level rise. It is also argued that a long-term perspective is essential for the management of biological invasions, not least in determining when an invasive is not an invasive. The paper concludes that often inclusion of a long-term ecological perspective can provide a more scientifically defensible basis for conservation decisions than the one based only on contemporary records. The pivotal issue of this paper is not whether long-term records are of interest to conservation biologists, but how they can actually be utilized in conservation practice and policy.

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A conventional local model (LM) network consists of a set of affine local models blended together using appropriate weighting functions. Such networks have poor interpretability since the dynamics of the blended network are only weakly related to the underlying local models. In contrast, velocity-based LM networks employ strictly linear local models to provide a transparent framework for nonlinear modelling in which the global dynamics are a simple linear combination of the local model dynamics. A novel approach for constructing continuous-time velocity-based networks from plant data is presented. Key issues including continuous-time parameter estimation, correct realisation of the velocity-based local models and avoidance of the input derivative are all addressed. Application results are reported for the highly nonlinear simulated continuous stirred tank reactor process.

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Williams syndrome is a genetic disorder that, it has been claimed, results in an unusual pattern of linguistic strengths and weaknesses. The current study investigated the hypothesis that there is a reduced influence of lexical knowledge on phonological short-term memory in Williams syndrome. Fourteen children with Williams syndrome and 2 vocabulary la matched control groups, 20 typically developing children and 13 children with learning difficulties, were tested on 2 probed serial-recall tasks. On the basis of previous findings, it was predicted that children with Williams syndrome would demonstrate (a) a reduced effect of lexicality on the recall of list items, (b) relatively poorer recall of list items compared with recall of serial order, and (c) a reduced tendency to produce lexicalization errors in the recall of nonwords. in fact, none of these predictions were supported. Alternative explanations for previous findings and implications for accounts of language development in Williams syndrome are discussed.

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Tagging animals is frequently employed in ecological studies to monitor individual behaviour, for example postrelease survival and dispersal of captive-bred animals used in conservation programmes. While the majority of studies focus on the efficacy of tags in facilitating the relocation and identification of individuals, few assess the direct effects of tagging in biasing animal behaviour. We used an experimental approach with a control to differentiate the effects of handling and tagging captive-bred juvenile freshwater pearl mussels, Margaritifera margaritifera, prior to release into the wild. Marking individuals with passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags significantly decreased their burrowing rate and, therefore, increased the time taken to burrow into the substrate. This effect was contributed to, in part, by the detrimental impacts of handling, which also significantly affected activity, burrowing ability and the time taken for each individual to emerge and start probing the substrate. Disturbance during handling and tagging may lead to indirect mortality after release by increasing the risk of predation or dislodgement during flooding, thereby potentially compromising any conservation strategy contingent on population supplementation or reintroduction. This is the first study to demonstrate that handling and PIT tagging has a detrimental impact on invertebrate behaviour. Moreover, our results provide useful information that will inform freshwater bivalve conservation strategies.

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Glucagon-like peptide-1(7-36)amide (tGLP-1) is an important insulin-releasing hormone of the enteroinsular axis which is secreted by endocrine L-cells of the small intestine following nutrient ingestion. The present study has evaluated tGLP-1 in the intestines of normal and diabetic animal models and estimated the proportion present in glycated form. Total immunoreactive tGLP-1 levels in the intestines of hyperglycaemic hydrocortisone-treated rats, streptozotocin-treated mice and ob/ob mice were similar to age-matched controls. Affinity chromatographic separation of glycated and non-glycated proteins in intestinal extracts followed by radioimmunoassay using a fully crossreacting anti-serum demonstrated the presence of glycated tGLP-1 within the intestinal extracts of all control animals (approximately 19%., of total tGLP-1 content). Chemically induced and spontaneous animal models of diabetes were found to possess significantly greater levels of glycated tGLP-1 than controls, corresponding to between 24-71% of the total content. These observations suggest that glycated tGLP-1 may be of physiological significance given that such N-terminal modification confers resistance to DPP IV inactivation and degradation, extending the very short half-life (

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Many species are currently experiencing anthropogenically driven environmental changes. Among these changes, increasing noise levels are specifically a problem for species relying on acoustic communication. Recent evidence suggests that some species adjust their acoustic signals to man-made noise. However, it is unknown whether these changes occur through short-term and reversible adjustments by behavioral plasticity or through long-term adaptations by evolutionary change. Using behavioral observations and playback experiments, we show that male reed buntings (Emberiza schoeniclus) adjusted their songs immediately, singing at a higher minimum frequency and at a lower rate when noise levels were high. Our data showed that these changes in singing behavior were short-term adjustments of signal characteristics resulting from behavioral plasticity, rather than a long-term adaptation. However, more males remained unpaired at a noisy location than at a quiet location throughout the breeding season. Thus, phenotypic plasticity enables individuals to respond to environmental changes, but whether these short-term adjustments are beneficial remains to be seen.

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Diabetic retinopathy (DR) is the most widespread complication of diabetes mellitus and a major cause of blindness in the working population of developed countries. The clinicopathology of the diabetic retina has been extensively studied, although the relative contribution of the various biochemical and molecular sequelae of hyperglycemia remains ill defined. Many neural and microvascular abnormalities occur in the retina of short-term diabetic animals but it remains uncertain how closely these acute changes relate to chronic human disease. It is important to determine the relationship between alterations observed within the first weeks or months in short-term aminal models, and human disease, where clinically manifest retinopathy occurs only after durations of diabetes measured in years. This review is focused on the retinal microvasculature, although it should be appreciated that pathological changes in this system often occur in parallel with abnormalities in the neural parenchyma that may be derivative or even causal. Nevertheless, it is useful to reevaluate the microvascular lesions that are manifest in the retina during diabetes in humans and long-term animal models, since in addition to providing useful clues to the pathogenic basis of DR as a disease entity, it is in the deterrence of such changes that the efficacy of any novel treatment regimes will be measured. In particular, an emphasis will be placed on the relatively unappreciated role of arteriolar dysfunction in the clinical manifestations and pathology of this disease.

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Phytoestrogens are plant compounds that have been proposed to have a variety of health benefits. The aim of this study was to assess the effects of these compounds on a number of physiological endpoints. Subjects were given a single intake of a phytoestrogen-rich (80 mg total phytoestrogens) supplement containing soy, rye and linseed (Phase 1), followed by a week-long intervention using the same supplement (Phase 2) (80 mg total phytoestrogens daily). A number of biochemical endpoints were assessed including urinary phytoestrogen metabolites, lipids, antioxidant status, DNA damage and insulin-like growth factor-1 (IGF-1) and IGF binding protein-1 (IGFBP-1) and -3 (IGFBP-3). Ten healthy female subjects took part in the study. Excretion of the isoflavones genistein, daidzein and equol in urine increased in both phases of the study. No other endpoint was altered in Phase 1. However, in Phase 2, concentrations of IGF-1 and IGFBP-3 were increased by phytoestrogen supplementation [IGF-1, median (IQ range), baseline 155 (123, 258), postweek 265 (228, 360) ng/ml, P

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Children born very preterm, even when intelligence is broadly normal, often experience selective difficulties in executive function and visual-spatial processing. Development of structural cortical connectivity is known to be altered in this group, and functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) evidence indicates that very preterm children recruit different patterns of functional connectivity between cortical regions during cognition. Synchronization of neural oscillations across brain areas has been proposed as a mechanism for dynamically assigning functional coupling to support perceptual and cognitive processing, but little is known about what role oscillatory synchronization may play in the altered neurocognitive development of very preterm children. To investigate this, we recorded magnetoencephalographic (MEG) activity while 7-8 year old children born very preterm and age-matched full-term controls performed a visual short-term memory task. Very preterm children exhibited reduced long-range synchronization in the alpha-band during visual short-term memory retention, indicating that cortical alpha rhythms may play a critical role in altered patterns functional connectivity expressed by this population during cognitive and perceptual processing. Long-range alpha-band synchronization was also correlated with task performance and visual-perceptual ability within the very preterm group, indicating that altered alpha oscillatory mechanisms mediating transient functional integration between cortical regions may be relevant to selective problems in neurocognitive development in this vulnerable population at school age.

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The effects of changes in circulating gonadal steroids on GH secretion elicited by GHRH challenge (1µg/kg) in normal adults volunteers (aged 18-24 years), were evaluated in 10 women and 10 men before and after gonadal blockade was achieved by a GnRH agonist (1500 µg/day by nasal spray for 40 days). To see if the effect of testosterone on GH secretion was dependent on its aromatization to estradiol (E), GHRH tests were performed in 7 normal men prior to administration of testosterone enanthate (250 mg im), 8 days after this treatment had began, and again after E receptor blockade with tamoxifen (30 mg for 2 days plus 10 mg on the third day 2 h before the GHRH test, po) administered 8 days after testosterone enanthate. The study of the functional status of the somatotropes at the time of GHRH testing was made according to our previous postulate. Short-term gonadal blockade did not affect the parameters of GH response to GHRH in neither women nor men. Thus, the functional blockade of the gonads may be advisable as an adjunct therapy in the treatment of hypothalamic GH deficiency during the prepubertal stage. In the other group of men, administration of testosterone enanthate significantly increased GHRH-elicited GH release, but this was reverted after E receptor blockade. Since the hypothalamic-somatotrope rhythm was altered by both these farmacological manipulations, it appears that testosterone acts on GH release mainly at the suprapituitary level, and that this action is secondary to its aromatization to E.

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Incorporating ecological processes and animal behaviour into Species Distribution Models (SDMs) is difficult. In species with a central resting or breeding place, there can be conflict between the environmental requirements of the 'central place' and foraging habitat. We apply a multi-scale SDM to examine habitat trade-offs between the central place, roost sites, and foraging habitat in . Myotis nattereri. We validate these derived associations using habitat selection from behavioural observations of radio-tracked bats. A Generalised Linear Model (GLM) of roost occurrence using land cover variables with mixed spatial scales indicated roost occurrence was positively associated with woodland on a fine scale and pasture on a broad scale. Habitat selection of radio-tracked bats mirrored the SDM with bats selecting for woodland in the immediate vicinity of individual roosts but avoiding this habitat in foraging areas, whilst pasture was significantly positively selected for in foraging areas. Using habitat selection derived from radio-tracking enables a multi-scale SDM to be interpreted in a behavioural context. We suggest that the multi-scale SDM of . M. nattereri describes a trade-off between the central place and foraging habitat. Multi-scale methods provide a greater understanding of the ecological processes which determine where species occur and allow integration of behavioural processes into SDMs. The findings have implications when assessing the resource use of a species at a single point in time. Doing so could lead to misinterpretation of habitat requirements as these can change within a short time period depending on specific behaviour, particularly if detectability changes depending on behaviour. © 2011 Gesellschaft für ökologie.

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Empirical studies of the spatiotemporal dynamics of populations are required to better understand natural fluctuations in abundance and reproductive success, and to better target conservation and monitoring programmes. In particular, spatial synchrony in amphibian populations remains little studied. We used data from a comprehensive three year study of natterjack toad Bufo calamita populations breeding at 36 ponds to assess whether there was spatial synchrony in the toad breeding activity (start and length of breeding season, total number of egg strings) and reproductive success (premetamorphic survival and production of metamorphs). We defined a novel approach to assess the importance of short-term synchrony at both local and regional scales. The approach employs similarity indices and quantifies the interaction between the temporal and spatial components of populations using mixed effects models. There was no synchrony in the toad breeding activity and reproductive success at the local scale, suggesting that populations function as individual clusters independent of each other. Regional synchrony was apparent in the commencement and duration of the breeding season and in the number of egg strings laid (indicative of female population size). Regional synchrony in both rainfall and temperature are likely to explain the patterns observed (e.g. Moran effect). There was no evidence supporting regional synchrony in reproductive success, most likely due to spatial variability in the environmental conditions at the breeding ponds, and to differences in local population fitness (e.g. fecundity). The small scale asynchronous dynamics and regional synchronous dynamics in the number of breeding females indicate that it is best to monitor several populations within a subset of regions. Importantly, variations in the toad breeding activity and reproductive success are not synchronous, and it is thus important to consider them both when assessing the conservation status of pond-breeding amphibians. © 2012 The Authors. Ecography © 2012 Nordic Society Oikos.

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European Regulation 1169/2011 requires producers of foods that contain refined vegetable oils to label the oil types. A novel rapid and staged methodology has been developed for the first time to identify common oil species in oil blends. The qualitative method consists of a combination of a Fourier Transform Infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy to profile the oils and fatty acid chromatographic analysis to confirm the composition of the oils when required. Calibration models and specific classification criteria were developed and all data were fused into a simple decision-making system. The single lab validation of the method demonstrated the very good performance (96% correct classification, 100% specificity, 4% false positive rate). Only a small fraction of the samples needed to be confirmed with the majority of oils identified rapidly using only the spectroscopic procedure. The results demonstrate the huge potential of the methodology for a wide range of oil authenticity work.

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This paper presents a novel analysis of the utilisation of small grid scale energy storage to mitigate negative system operational impacts due to high penetrations of wind power. This was investigated by artificially lowering the minimum stable generation level of a gas thermal generating unit coupled to a storage device over a five hour storage charging window using a unit commitment and economic dispatch model. The key findings of the analysis were a 0.18% reduction in wind curtailment, a 2.35 MW/min reduction in the ramping rate required to be met by all generators in the test system during a representative period and a total generation cost reduction of €6.5 million.

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High-pressure processing (HPP) can produce tomato juice of high quality and safety with a short shelf life under refrigeration temperatures. Long-term higher temperature storage studies are rare and temperature tolerant products are challenging to develop. The effect of high-pressure processing (HPP) on the total quality (colour, microbial counts, phytochemical levels, antioxidant and enzymatic activities) and stability (retention over time) of tomato juice during long-term storage was investigated. Thermal processing (TP) was used as a control treatment, and overall, two different ambient conditions (20 °C and 28 °C) were tested. Immediately after processing, HPP products proved superior to TP ones (enhanced redness, total carotenoids and lycopene, stable total phenols and inactivation of pectin methyl esterase). During initial storage (30 d) most quality attributes of HPP juice remained stable. Prolonged storage, however, led to losses of most quality attributes, although HPP (20 °C) showed lower quality degradation rate constants comparison to TP and HPP (28 °C). Industrial Relevance: There is a demand for ambient stable tomato products, especially in some parts of the world, and current industrial practices (canning, pasteurisation) either compromise in product quality or require refrigeration conditions. High-pressure processing has been investigated as milder technology, with a potential to deliver superior quality. The drawback is that is also requires chill storage. The results of this study show how quality parameters behave in a high-pressured tomato product and pave the way for further development that could optimise this technology. This could be of economic importance for the tomato juice industry to develop new products stable in ambient temperatures and perhaps beneficial for cutting down the refrigeration costs under specific conditions.