Controls on inorganic nitrogen leaching from Finnish catchments assessed using a sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of the INCA-N model

The semi-distributed, dynamic INCA-N model was used to simulate the behaviour of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) in two Finnish research catchments. Parameter sensitivity and model structural uncertainty were analysed using generalized sensitivity analysis. The Mustajoki catchment is a forested upstream catchment, while the Savijoki catchment represents intensively cultivated lowlands. In general, there were more influential parameters in Savijoki than Mustajoki. Model results were sensitive to N-transformation rates, vegetation dynamics, and soil and river hydrology. Values of the sensitive parameters were based on long-term measurements covering both warm and cold years. The highest measured DIN concentrations fell between minimum and maximum values estimated during the uncertainty analysis. The lowest measured concentrations fell outside these bounds, suggesting that some retention processes may be missing from the current model structure. The lowest concentrations occurred mainly during low flow periods; so effects on total loads were small.

Emotional reasoning and anxiety sensitivity: associations with social anxiety disorder in childhood

Background Two specific cognitive constructs that have been implicated in the development and maintenance of anxiety symptoms are anxiety sensitivity and emotional reasoning, both of which relate to the experience and meaning of physical symptoms of arousal or anxiety. The interpretation of physical symptoms has been particularly implicated in theories of social anxiety disorder, where internal physical symptoms are hypothesized to influence the individual's appraisals of the self as a social object. Method The current study compared 75 children on measures of anxiety sensitivity and emotional reasoning: 25 with social anxiety disorder, 25 with other anxiety disorders, and 25 nonanxious children (aged 7–12 years). Results Children with social anxiety disorder reported higher levels of anxiety sensitivity and were more likely than both other groups to view ambiguous situations as anxiety provoking, whether physical information was present or not. There were no group differences in the extent to which physical information altered children's interpretation of hypothetical scenarios. Limitations This study is the first to investigate emotional reasoning in clinically anxious children and therefore replication is needed. In addition, those in both anxious groups commonly had comorbid conditions and, consequently, specific conclusions about social anxiety disorder need to be treated with caution. Conclusion The findings highlight cognitive characteristics that may be particularly pertinent in the context of social anxiety disorder in childhood and which may be potential targets for treatment. Furthermore, the findings suggest that strategies to modify these particular cognitive constructs may not be necessary in treatments of some other childhood anxiety disorders.

Sensitivity of direct radiative forcing by mineral dust to particle characteristics

Airborne dust affects the Earth's energy balance — an impact that is measured in terms of the implied change in net radiation (or radiative forcing, in W m-2) at the top of the atmosphere. There remains considerable uncertainty in the magnitude and sign of direct forcing by airborne dust under current climate. Much of this uncertainty stems from simplified assumptions about mineral dust-particle size, composition and shape, which are applied in remote sensing retrievals of dust characteristics and dust-cycle models. Improved estimates of direct radiative forcing by dust will require improved characterization of the spatial variability in particle characteristics to provide reliable information dust optical properties. This includes constraints on: (1) particle-size distribution, including discrimination of particle subpopulations and quantification of the amount of dust in the sub-10 µm to <0.1 µm mass fraction; (2) particle composition, specifically the abundance of iron oxides, and whether particles consist of single or multi-mineral grains; (3) particle shape, including degree of sphericity and surface roughness, as a function of size and mineralogy; and (4) the degree to which dust particles are aggregated together. The use of techniques that measure the size, composition and shape of individual particles will provide a better basis for optical modelling.

Intra-crystalline protein diagenesis (IcPD) in Patella vulgata. Part II: Breakdown and temperature sensitivity

Artificial diagenesis of the intra-crystalline proteins isolated from Patella vulgata was induced by isothermal heating at 140 °C, 110 °C and 80 °C. Protein breakdown was quantified for multiple amino acids, measuring the extent of peptide bond hydrolysis, amino acid racemisation and decomposition. The patterns of diagenesis are complex; therefore the kinetic parameters of the main reactions were estimated by two different methods: 1) a well-established approach based on fitting mathematical expressions to the experimental data, e.g. first-order rate equations for hydrolysis and power-transformed first-order rate equations for racemisation; and 2) an alternative model-free approach, which was developed by estimating a “scaling” factor for the independent variable (time) which produces the best alignment of the experimental data. This method allows the calculation of the relative reaction rates for the different temperatures of isothermal heating. High-temperature data were compared with the extent of degradation detected in sub-fossil Patella specimens of known age, and we evaluated the ability of kinetic experiments to mimic diagenesis at burial temperature. The results highlighted a difference between patterns of degradation at low and high temperature and therefore we recommend caution for the extrapolation of protein breakdown rates to low burial temperatures for geochronological purposes when relying solely on kinetic data.

Alterations in predicted regulatory and coding regions of the sterol 14α-demethylase gene (CYP51) confer decreased azole sensitivity in the oilseed rape pathogen Pyrenopeziza brassicae

The incidence and severity of light leaf spot epidemics caused by the ascomycete fungus Pyrenopeziza brassicae on UK oilseed rape crops is increasing. The disease is currently controlled by a combination of host resistance, cultural practices and fungicide applications. We report decreases in sensitivities of modern UK P. brassicae isolates to the azole (imidazole and triazole) class of fungicides. By cloning and sequencing the P. brassicae CYP51 (PbCYP51) gene, encoding the azole target sterol 14α-demethylase, we identified two non-synonymous mutations encoding substitutions G460S and S508T associated with reduced azole sensitivity. We confirmed the impact of the encoded PbCYP51 changes on azole sensitivity and protein activity by heterologous expression in a Saccharomyces cerevisiae mutant YUG37::erg11 carrying a controllable promoter of native CYP51 expression. In addition, we identified insertions in the predicted regulatory regions of PbCYP51 in isolates with reduced azole sensitivity. The presence of these insertions was associated with enhanced transcription of PbCYP51 in response to sub-inhibitory concentrations of the azole fungicide tebuconazole. Genetic analysis of in vitro crosses of sensitive and resistant isolates confirmed the impact of PbCYP51 alterations in coding and regulatory sequences on a reduced sensitivity phenotype, as well as identifying a second major gene at another locus contributing to resistance in some isolates. The least sensitive field isolates carry combinations of upstream insertions and non-synonymous mutations, suggesting PbCYP51 evolution is on-going and the progressive decline in azole sensitivity of UK P. brassicae populations will continue. The implications for the future control of light leaf spot are discussed.

MODIS-based vegetation index has sufficient sensitivity to indicate stand-level intra-seasonal climatic stress in oak and beech forests

Context: Variation in photosynthetic activity of trees induced by climatic stress can be effectively evaluated using remote sensing data. Although adverse effects of climate on temperate forests have been subjected to increased scrutiny, the suitability of remote sensing imagery for identification of drought stress in such forests has not been explored fully. Aim: To evaluate the sensitivity of MODIS-based vegetation index to heat and drought stress in temperate forests, and explore the differences in stress response of oaks and beech. Methods: We identified 8 oak and 13 beech pure and mature stands, each covering between 4 and 13 MODIS pixels. For each pixel, we extracted a time series of MODIS NDVI from 2000 to 2010. We identified all sequences of continuous unseasonal NDVI decline to be used as the response variable indicative of environmental stress. Neural Networks-based regression modelling was then applied to identify the climatic variables that best explain observed NDVI declines. Results: Tested variables explained 84–97% of the variation in NDVI, whilst air temperature-related climate extremes were found to be the most influential. Beech showed a linear response to the most influential climatic predictors, while oak responded in a unimodal pattern suggesting a better coping mechanism. Conclusions: MODIS NDVI has proved sufficiently sensitive as a stand-level indicator of climatic stress acting upon temperate broadleaf forests, leading to its potential use in predicting drought stress from meteorological observations and improving parameterisation of forest stress indices.

Brain activity in advantageous and disadvantageous situations: implications for reward/punishment sensitivity in different situations

OBJECTIVE: This study modeled win and lose trials in a simple gambling task to examine the effect of entire win-lose situations (WIN, LOSS, or TIE) on single win/lose trials and related neural underpinnings. METHODS: The behavior responses and brain activities of 17 participants were recorded by an MRI scanner while they performed a gambling task. Different conditions were compared to determine the effect of the task on the behavior and brain activity of the participants. Correlations between brain activity and behavior were calculated to support the imaging results. RESULTS: In win trials, LOSS caused less intense posterior cingulate activity than TIE. In lose trials, LOSS caused more intense activity in the right superior temporal gyrus, bilateral superior frontal gyrus, bilateral anterior cingulate, bilateral insula cortex, and left orbitofrontal cortex than WIN and TIE. CONCLUSIONS: The experiences of the participants in win trials showed great similarity among different win-lose situations. However, the brain activity and behavior responses of the participants in lose trials indicated that they experienced stronger negative emotion in LOSS. The participants also showed an increased desire to win in LOSS than in WIN or TIE conditions.

Temporal sensitivity of rice seed development from spikelet fertility to viable mature seed to extreme-temperature

Extreme temperature during reproductive development affects rice (Oryza sativa L.) yield and seed quality. A controlled-environment reciprocal-transfer experiment was designed where plants from two japonica cultivars were grown at 28/24 ⁰C and moved to 18/14 ⁰C and vice versa, or from 28/24 to 38/34 ⁰C and vice versa, for 7-d periods to determine the respective temporal pattern of sensitivity of spikelet fertility, yield, and seed viability to each temperature extreme. Spikelet fertility and seed yield per panicle were severely reduced by extreme temperature in the 14 d period prior to anthesis; and both cultivars were affected at 38/34 ⁰C while only cv. Gleva was affected at 18/14 ºC. The damage was greater the earlier the panicles were stressed within this period. Later-exserted panicles compensated only partly for yield loss. Seed viability was significantly reduced by 7-d exposure to 38/34 ⁰C or 18/14 ⁰C at 1 to 7 and 1 to 14 d after anthesis, respectively, in cv. Gleva. Cultivar Taipei 309 was not affected by 7 d exposure at 18/14 ⁰C; and no consistent temporal pattern of sensitivity was evident at 38/34 ⁰C. Hence, brief exposure to low or high temperature was most damaging to spikelet fertility and yield 14 to 7 d before anthesis, coinciding with microsporogenesis; and it was almost as damaging around anthesis. Seed viability was most vulnerable to low or high temperature in the 7 or 14 d after anthesis, when histodifferentiation occurs.

Sensitivity of a hydraulic model to changes in channel erosion during extreme flooding

Recent research into flood modelling has primarily concentrated on the simulation of inundation flow without considering the influences of channel morphology. River channels are often represented by a simplified geometry that is implicitly assumed to remain unchanged during flood simulations. However, field evidence demonstrates that significant morphological changes can occur during floods to mobilise the boundary sediments. Despite this, the effect of channel morphology on model results has been largely unexplored. To address this issue, the impact of channel cross-section geometry and channel long-profile variability on flood dynamics is examined using an ensemble of a 1D-2D hydraulic model (LISFLOOD-FP) of the 1:2102 year recurrence interval floods in Cockermouth, UK, within an uncertainty framework. A series of hypothetical scenarios of channel morphology were constructed based on a simple velocity based model of critical entrainment. A Monte-Carlo simulation framework was used to quantify the effects of channel morphology together with variations in the channel and floodplain roughness coefficients, grain size characteristics, and critical shear stress on measures of flood inundation. The results showed that the bed elevation modifications generated by the simplistic equations reflected a good approximation of the observed patterns of spatial erosion despite its overestimation of erosion depths. The effect of uncertainty on channel long-profile variability only affected the local flood dynamics and did not significantly affect the friction sensitivity and flood inundation mapping. The results imply that hydraulic models generally do not need to account for within event morphodynamic changes of the type and magnitude modelled, as these have a negligible impact that is smaller than other uncertainties, e.g. boundary conditions. Instead morphodynamic change needs to happen over a series of events to become large enough to change the hydrodynamics of floods in supply limited gravel-bed rivers like the one used in this research.

Multi‐method global sensitivity analysis (MMGSA) for modelling floodplain hydrological processes

When studying hydrological processes with a numerical model, global sensitivity analysis (GSA) is essential if one is to understand the impact of model parameters and model formulation on results. However, different definitions of sensitivity can lead to a difference in the ranking of importance of the different model factors. Here we combine a fuzzy performance function with different methods of calculating global sensitivity to perform a multi-method global sensitivity analysis (MMGSA). We use an application of a finite element subsurface flow model (ESTEL-2D) on a flood inundation event on a floodplain of the River Severn to illustrate this new methodology. We demonstrate the utility of the method for model understanding and show how the prediction of state variables, such as Darcian velocity vectors, can be affected by such a MMGSA. This paper is a first attempt to use GSA with a numerically intensive hydrological model.

Sensitivity of simulated regional Arctic climate to the choice of coupled model domain

The climate over the Arctic has undergone changes in recent decades. In order to evaluate the coupled response of the Arctic system to external and internal forcing, our study focuses on the estimation of regional climate variability and its dependence on large-scale atmospheric and regional ocean circulations. A global ocean–sea ice model with regionally high horizontal resolution is coupled to an atmospheric regional model and global terrestrial hydrology model. This way of coupling divides the global ocean model setup into two different domains: one coupled, where the ocean and the atmosphere are interacting, and one uncoupled, where the ocean model is driven by prescribed atmospheric forcing and runs in a so-called stand-alone mode. Therefore, selecting a specific area for the regional atmosphere implies that the ocean–atmosphere system can develop ‘freely’ in that area, whereas for the rest of the global ocean, the circulation is driven by prescribed atmospheric forcing without any feedbacks. Five different coupled setups are chosen for ensemble simulations. The choice of the coupled domains was done to estimate the influences of the Subtropical Atlantic, Eurasian and North Pacific regions on northern North Atlantic and Arctic climate. Our simulations show that the regional coupled ocean–atmosphere model is sensitive to the choice of the modelled area. The different model configurations reproduce differently both the mean climate and its variability. Only two out of five model setups were able to reproduce the Arctic climate as observed under recent climate conditions (ERA-40 Reanalysis). Evidence is found that the main source of uncertainty for Arctic climate variability and its predictability is the North Pacific. The prescription of North Pacific conditions in the regional model leads to significant correlation with observations, even if the whole North Atlantic is within the coupled model domain. However, the inclusion of the North Pacific area into the coupled system drastically changes the Arctic climate variability to a point where the Arctic Oscillation becomes an ‘internal mode’ of variability and correlations of year-to-year variability with observational data vanish. In line with previous studies, our simulations provide evidence that Arctic sea ice export is mainly due to ‘internal variability’ within the Arctic region. We conclude that the choice of model domains should be based on physical knowledge of the atmospheric and oceanic processes and not on ‘geographic’ reasons. This is particularly the case for areas like the Arctic, which has very complex feedbacks between components of the regional climate system.

Feedbacks and mechanisms affecting the global sensitivity of glaciers to climate change

Mass loss by glaciers has been an important contributor to sea level rise in the past, and is projected to contribute a substantial fraction of total sea level rise during the 21st century. Here, we use a model of the world's glaciers to quantify equilibrium sensitivities of global glacier mass to climate change, and to investigate the role of changes in glacier hypsometry for long-term mass changes. We find that 21st century glacier-mass loss is largely governed by the glacier's response to 20th century climate change. This limits the influence of 21st century climate change on glacier-mass loss, and explains why there are relatively small differences in glacier-mass loss under greatly different scenarios of climate change. The projected future changes in both temperature and precipitation experienced by glaciers are amplified relative to the global average. The projected increase in precipitation partly compensates for the mass loss caused by warming, but this compensation is negligible at higher temperature anomalies since an increasing fraction of precipitation at the glacier sites is liquid. Loss of low-lying glacier area, and more importantly, eventual complete disappearance of glaciers, strongly limit the projected sea level contribution from glaciers in coming centuries. The adjustment of glacier hypsometry to changes in the forcing strongly reduces the rates of global glacier-mass loss caused by changes in global mean temperature compared to rates of mass loss when hypsometric changes are neglected. This result is a second reason for the relatively weak dependence of glacier-mass loss on future climate scenario, and helps explain why glacier-mass loss in the first half of the 20th century was of the same order of magnitude as in the second half of the 20th century, even though the rate of warming was considerably smaller.

Enhanced MALDI MS sensitivity by weak base additives and glycerol sample coating

The concept of rationally designing MALDI matrices has been extended to the next “whole sample” level. These studies have revealed some unexpected and exploitable insights in improving MALDI sensitivity. It is shown that (i) additives which only provide additional laser energy absorption are best to be avoided; (ii) the addition of proton donors in the form of protonated weak bases can be highly beneficial; (iii) the addition of glycerol for coating crystalline samples is highly recommended. Overall, analytical sensitivity has been significantly increased compared to the current “gold” standards in MALDI MS, and new insights into the mechanisms and processes of MALDI have been gained.

Sensitivity of a coupled climate model to canopy interception capacity

The canopy interception capacity is a small but key part of the surface hydrology, which affects the amount of water intercepted by vegetation and therefore the partitioning of evaporation and transpiration. However, little research with climate models has been done to understand the effects of a range of possible canopy interception capacity parameter values. This is in part due to the assumption that it does not significantly affect climate. Near global evapotranspiration products now make evaluation of canopy interception capacity parameterisations possible. We use a range of canopy water interception capacity values from the literature to investigate the effect on climate within the climate model HadCM3. We find that the global mean temperature is affected by up to -0.64 K globally and -1.9 K regionally. These temperature impacts are predominantly due to changes in the evaporative fraction and top of atmosphere albedo. In the tropics, the variations in evapotranspiration affect precipitation, significantly enhancing rainfall. Comparing the model output to measurements, we find that the default canopy interception capacity parameterisation overestimates canopy interception loss (i.e. canopy evaporation) and underestimates transpiration. Overall, decreasing canopy interception capacity improves the evapotranspiration partitioning in HadCM3, though the measurement literature more strongly supports an increase. The high sensitivity of climate to the parameterisation of canopy interception capacity is partially due to the high number of light rain-days in the climate model that means that interception is overestimated. This work highlights the hitherto underestimated importance of canopy interception capacity in climate model hydroclimatology and the need to acknowledge the role of precipitation representation limitations in determining parameterisations.

Endothelial function and insulin sensitivity during acute non-esterified fatty acid elevation: effects of fat composition and gender

Background and Aims: We have reported that adverse effects on flow-mediated dilation of an acute elevation of non-esterified fatty acids rich in saturated fat (SFA) are reversed following addition of long-chain (LC) n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA), and hypothesised that these effects may be mediated through alterations in insulin signalling pathways. In a subgroup, we explored the effects of raised NEFA enriched with SFA, with or without LC n-3 PUFA, on whole body insulin sensitivity (SI) and responsiveness of the endothelium to insulin infusion. Methods and Results: Thirty adults (mean age 27.8 y, BMI 23.2 kg/m2) consumed oral fat loads on separate occasions with continuous heparin infusion to elevate NEFA between 60-390 min. For the final 150 min, a hyperinsulinaemic-euglycaemic clamp was performed, whilst FMD and circulating markers of endothelial function were measured at baseline, pre-clamp (240 min) and post-clamp (390 min). NEFA elevation during the SFA-rich drinks was associated with impaired FMD (P=0.027) whilst SFA+LC n-3 PUFA improved FMD at 240 min (P=0.003). In males, insulin infusion attenuated the increase in FMD with SFA+LC n-3 PUFA (P=0.049), with SI 10% greater with SFA+LC n-3 PUFA than SFA (P=0.041). Conclusion: This study provides evidence that NEFA composition during acute elevation influences both FMD and SI, with some indication of a difference by gender. However our findings are not consistent with the hypothesis that the effects of fatty acids on endothelial function and SI operate through a common pathway. Trial registered at clinicaltrials.gov, NCT01351324.