Estimating loss to follow-up in HIV-infected patients on antiretroviral therapy: the effect of the competing risk of death in Zambia and Switzerland

Background Loss to follow-up (LTFU) is common in antiretroviral therapy (ART) programmes. Mortality is a competing risk (CR) for LTFU; however, it is often overlooked in cohort analyses. We examined how the CR of death affected LTFU estimates in Zambia and Switzerland. Methods and Findings HIV-infected patients aged ≥18 years who started ART 2004–2008 in observational cohorts in Zambia and Switzerland were included. We compared standard Kaplan-Meier curves with CR cumulative incidence. We calculated hazard ratios for LTFU across CD4 cell count strata using cause-specific Cox models, or Fine and Gray subdistribution models, adjusting for age, gender, body mass index and clinical stage. 89,339 patients from Zambia and 1,860 patients from Switzerland were included. 12,237 patients (13.7%) in Zambia and 129 patients (6.9%) in Switzerland were LTFU and 8,498 (9.5%) and 29 patients (1.6%), respectively, died. In Zambia, the probability of LTFU was overestimated in Kaplan-Meier curves: estimates at 3.5 years were 29.3% for patients starting ART with CD4 cells <100 cells/µl and 15.4% among patients starting with ≥350 cells/µL. The estimates from CR cumulative incidence were 22.9% and 13.6%, respectively. Little difference was found between naïve and CR analyses in Switzerland since only few patients died. The results from Cox and Fine and Gray models were similar: in Zambia the risk of loss to follow-up and death increased with decreasing CD4 counts at the start of ART, whereas in Switzerland there was a trend in the opposite direction, with patients with higher CD4 cell counts more likely to be lost to follow-up. Conclusions In ART programmes in low-income settings the competing risk of death can substantially bias standard analyses of LTFU. The CD4 cell count and other prognostic factors may be differentially associated with LTFU in low-income and high-income settings.

Longer term clinical and virological outcome of sub-Saharan African participants on antiretroviral treatment in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study

Persons from sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are increasingly enrolled in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS). Cohorts from other European countries showed higher rates of viral failure among their SSA participants. We analyzed long-term outcomes of SSA versus North Western European participants.

Bilateral total extraperitoneal inguinal hernia repair (TEP) has outcomes similar to those for unilateral TEP: population-based analysis of prospective data of 6,505 patients

Whether bilateral total extraperitoneal (TEP) inguinal hernia repair is associated with worse outcomes than unilateral TEP continues to be a matter of debate. This study aimed to compare different outcomes of large cohorts of patients undergoing bilateral versus unilateral TEP.

Genetic variation in the PNPLA3 gene is associated with alcoholic liver injury in caucasians

A recent genome-wide study revealed an association between variation in the PNPLA3 gene and liver fat content. In addition, the PNPLA3 single-nucleotide polymorphism rs738409 (M148I) was reported to be associated with advanced alcoholic liver disease in alcohol-dependent individuals of Mestizo descent. We therefore evaluated the impact of rs738409 on the manifestation of alcoholic liver disease in two independent German cohorts. Genotype and allele frequencies of rs738409 (M148I) were determined in 1,043 alcoholic patients with or without alcoholic liver injury and in 376 at-risk drinkers from a population-based cohort. Relative to alcoholic patients without liver damage (n = 439), rs738409 genotype GG was strongly overrepresented in patients with alcoholic liver cirrhosis (n = 210; OR 2.79; P(genotype) = 1.2 × 10(-5) ; P(allelic) = 1.6 × 10(-6) ) and in alcoholic patients without cirrhosis but with elevated alanine aminotransferase levels (n = 219; OR 2.33; P(genotype) = 0.0085; P(allelic) = 0.0042). The latter, biochemically defined association was confirmed in an independent population-based cohort of at-risk drinkers with a median alcohol intake of 300 g/week (OR 4.75; P(genotype) = 0.040; P(allelic) = 0.022), and for aspartate aminotransferase (AST) levels. Frequencies of allele PNPLA3 rs738409(G) in individuals with steatosis and normal alanine aminotransferase (ALT) and AST levels were lower than in alcoholics without steatosis and normal ALT/AST (P(combined) = 0.03). The population attributable risk of cirrhosis in alcoholic carriers of allele PNPLA3 rs738409(G) was estimated at 26.6%. CONCLUSION: Genotype PNPLA3 rs738409(GG) is associated with alcoholic liver cirrhosis and elevated aminotransferase levels in alcoholic Caucasians.

Participation, characteristics and retention rates of HIV-positive immigrants in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study

Data from observational cohorts may be influenced by population structure and loss to follow-up (LTFU). Quality of care may be associated with participation in cohort networks. We aimed to study the participation, characteristics and retention rates of immigrants in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS).

Estimating the net contribution of interleukin-28B variation to spontaneous hepatitis C virus clearance

The identification of associations between interleukin-28B (IL-28B) variants and the spontaneous clearance of hepatitis C virus (HCV) raises the issues of causality and the net contribution of host genetics to the trait. To estimate more precisely the net effect of IL-28B genetic variation on HCV clearance, we optimized genotyping and compared the host contributions in multiple- and single-source cohorts to control for viral and demographic effects. The analysis included individuals with chronic or spontaneously cleared HCV infections from a multiple-source cohort (n = 389) and a single-source cohort (n = 71). We performed detailed genotyping in the coding region of IL-28B and searched for copy number variations to identify the genetic variant or haplotype carrying the strongest association with viral clearance. This analysis was used to compare the effects of IL-28B variation in the two cohorts. Haplotypes characterized by carriage of the major alleles at IL-28B single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were highly overrepresented in individuals with spontaneous clearance versus those with chronic HCV infections (66.1% versus 38.6%, P = 6 × 10(-9) ). The odds ratios for clearance were 2.1 [95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.6-3.0] and 3.9 (95% CI = 1.5-10.2) in the multiple- and single-source cohorts, respectively. Protective haplotypes were in perfect linkage (r(2) = 1.0) with a nonsynonymous coding variant (rs8103142). Copy number variants were not detected. CONCLUSION: We identified IL-28B haplotypes highly predictive of spontaneous HCV clearance. The high linkage disequilibrium between IL-28B SNPs indicates that association studies need to be complemented by functional experiments to identify single causal variants. The point estimate for the genetic effect was higher in the single-source cohort, which was used to effectively control for viral diversity, sex, and coinfections and, therefore, offered a precise estimate of the net host genetic contribution.

LUPA: a European initiative taking advantage of the canine genome architecture for unravelling complex disorders in both human and dogs

The domestic dog offers a unique opportunity to explore the genetic basis of disease, morphology and behaviour. Humans share many diseases with our canine companions, making dogs an ideal model organism for comparative disease genetics. Using newly developed resources, genome-wide association studies in dog breeds are proving to be exceptionally powerful. Towards this aim, veterinarians and geneticists from 12 European countries are collaborating to collect and analyse the DNA from large cohorts of dogs suffering from a range of carefully defined diseases of relevance to human health. This project, named LUPA, has already delivered considerable results. The consortium has collaborated to develop a new high density single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) array. Mutations for four monogenic diseases have been identified and the information has been utilised to find mutations in human patients. Several complex diseases have been mapped and fine mapping is underway. These findings should ultimately lead to a better understanding of the molecular mechanisms underlying complex diseases in both humans and their best friend.

Cancer classification using the Immunoscore: a worldwide task force

Prediction of clinical outcome in cancer is usually achieved by histopathological evaluation of tissue samples obtained during surgical resection of the primary tumor. Traditional tumor staging (AJCC/UICC-TNM classification) summarizes data on tumor burden (T), presence of cancer cells in draining and regional lymph nodes (N) and evidence for metastases (M). However, it is now recognized that clinical outcome can significantly vary among patients within the same stage. The current classification provides limited prognostic information, and does not predict response to therapy. Recent literature has alluded to the importance of the host immune system in controlling tumor progression. Thus, evidence supports the notion to include immunological biomarkers, implemented as a tool for the prediction of prognosis and response to therapy. Accumulating data, collected from large cohorts of human cancers, has demonstrated the impact of immune-classification, which has a prognostic value that may add to the significance of the AJCC/UICC TNM-classification. It is therefore imperative to begin to incorporate the 'Immunoscore' into traditional classification, thus providing an essential prognostic and potentially predictive tool. Introduction of this parameter as a biomarker to classify cancers, as part of routine diagnostic and prognostic assessment of tumors, will facilitate clinical decision-making including rational stratification of patient treatment. Equally, the inherent complexity of quantitative immunohistochemistry, in conjunction with protocol variation across laboratories, analysis of different immune cell types, inconsistent region selection criteria, and variable ways to quantify immune infiltration, all underline the urgent requirement to reach assay harmonization. In an effort to promote the Immunoscore in routine clinical settings, an international task force was initiated. This review represents a follow-up of the announcement of this initiative, and of the J Transl Med. editorial from January 2012. Immunophenotyping of tumors may provide crucial novel prognostic information. The results of this international validation may result in the implementation of the Immunoscore as a new component for the classification of cancer, designated TNM-I (TNM-Immune).

Gender differences in survival among adult patients starting antiretroviral therapy in South Africa: a multicentre cohort study

Background Increased mortality among men on antiretroviral therapy (ART) has been documented but remains poorly understood. We examined the magnitude of and risk factors for gender differences in mortality on ART. Methods and Findings Analyses included 46,201 ART-naïve adults starting ART between January 2002 and December 2009 in eight ART programmes across South Africa (SA). Patients were followed from initiation of ART to outcome or analysis closure. The primary outcome was mortality; secondary outcomes were loss to follow-up (LTF), virologic suppression, and CD4+ cell count responses. Survival analyses were used to examine the hazard of death on ART by gender. Sensitivity analyses were limited to patients who were virologically suppressed and patients whose CD4+ cell count reached >200 cells/µl. We compared gender differences in mortality among HIV+ patients on ART with mortality in an age-standardised HIV-negative population. Among 46,201 adults (65% female, median age 35 years), during 77,578 person-years of follow-up, men had lower median CD4+ cell counts than women (85 versus 110 cells/µl, p<0.001), were more likely to be classified WHO stage III/IV (86 versus 77%, p<0.001), and had higher mortality in crude (8.5 versus 5.7 deaths/100 person-years, p<0.001) and adjusted analyses (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR] 1.31, 95% CI 1.22–1.41). After 36 months on ART, men were more likely than women to be truly LTF (AHR 1.20, 95% CI 1.12–1.28) but not to die after LTF (AHR 1.04, 95% CI 0.86–1.25). Findings were consistent across all eight programmes. Virologic suppression was similar by gender; women had slightly better immunologic responses than men. Notably, the observed gender differences in mortality on ART were smaller than gender differences in age-standardised death rates in the HIV-negative South African population. Over time, non-HIV mortality appeared to account for an increasing proportion of observed mortality. The analysis was limited by missing data on baseline HIV disease characteristics, and we did not observe directly mortality in HIV-negative populations where the participating cohorts were located. Conclusions HIV-infected men have higher mortality on ART than women in South African programmes, but these differences are only partly explained by more advanced HIV disease at the time of ART initiation, differential LTF and subsequent mortality, and differences in responses to treatment. The observed differences in mortality on ART may be best explained by background differences in mortality between men and women in the South African population unrelated to the HIV/AIDS epidemic.

Mean CD4 cell count changes in patients failing a first-line antiretroviral therapy in resource-limited settings

Background Changes in CD4 cell counts are poorly documented in individuals with low or moderate-level viremia while on antiretroviral treatment (ART) in resource-limited settings. We assessed the impact of on-going HIV-RNA replication on CD4 cell count slopes in patients treated with a first-line combination ART. Method Naïve patients on a first-line ART regimen with at least two measures of HIV-RNA available after ART initiation were included in the study. The relationships between mean CD4 cell count change and HIV-RNA at 6 and 12 months after ART initiation (M6 and M12) were assessed by linear mixed models adjusted for gender, age, clinical stage and year of starting ART. Results 3,338 patients were included (14 cohorts, 64% female) and the group had the following characteristics: a median follow-up time of 1.6 years, a median age of 34 years, and a median CD4 cell count at ART initiation of 107 cells/μL. All patients with suppressed HIV-RNA at M12 had a continuous increase in CD4 cell count up to 18 months after treatment initiation. By contrast, any degree of HIV-RNA replication both at M6 and M12 was associated with a flat or a decreasing CD4 cell count slope. Multivariable analysis using HIV-RNA thresholds of 10,000 and 5,000 copies confirmed the significant effect of HIV-RNA on CD4 cell counts both at M6 and M12. Conclusion In routinely monitored patients on an NNRTI-based first-line ART, on-going low-level HIV-RNA replication was associated with a poor immune outcome in patients who had detectable levels of the virus after one year of ART.

Parvovirus 4 infection and clinical outcome in high-risk populations

Parvovirus 4 (PARV4) is a DNA virus frequently associated with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections, but its clinical significance is unknown. We studied the prevalence of PARV4 antibodies in 2 cohorts of HIV- and HCV-infected individuals (n = 469) and the correlations with disease status. We found that PARV4 infection frequently occurred in individuals exposed to bloodborne viruses (95% in HCV-HIV coinfected intravenous drug users [IDUs]). There were no correlations between PARV4 serostatus and HCV outcomes. There was, however, a significant association with early HIV-related symptoms, although because this was tightly linked to both HCV status and clinical group (IDU), the specific role of PARV4 is not yet clear.

Subclinical hyperthyroidism and the risk of coronary heart disease and mortality

Data from prospective cohort studies regarding the association between subclinical hyperthyroidism and cardiovascular outcomes are conflicting.We aimed to assess the risks of total and coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality, CHD events, and atrial fibrillation (AF) associated with endogenous subclinical hyperthyroidism among all available large prospective cohorts.

Who Will Provide Long-Term Care in the Future?

Projects that long-term-care delivery system will face substantial barriers in the future in finding staff to provide services even without an increase in demand due to public or private insurance. Shift of the economy toward skilled service jobs; Changing demography of the work force; Policy elements and cohorts effects that shape the demand for long-term care personnel in the year 2000 and beyond.

Risk Factors for Physical Restraint Use in Nursing Homes: The Impact of the Nursing Home Reform Act

This study examined the impact of the Nursing Home Reform Act of 1987 on resident-and-facility-level risk factors for physical restraint use in nursing homes. Data on the 1990 and 1993 cohorts were obtained from 268 facilities in 10 states, and data on a 1996 cohort were obtained from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, which sampled more than 800 nursing homes nationwide. Multivariate logistic regression models were generated for each cohort to identify the impact of resident- and facility-level risk factors for restraint use. The results indicate that the use of physical restraints continues to decline. Thirty-six percent of the 1990 cohort, 26 percent of the 1993 cohort, and 17 percent of the 1996 cohort were physically restrained. Although there was a reduced rate of restraint use from 1990 to 1996, similar resident-level factors but different facility-level factors were associated with restraint use at different points in time.

Huntington's like conditions in China, A review of published Chinese cases

Background: Knowledge about HD in China is lacking in the international literature. We have therefore analyzed the Chinese literature to thoroughly explore the clinical characteristics of Huntington disease in China. Methods: A computer-based online search of China National Knowledge Infrastructure was performed to review case reports concerning HD published between January 1980 and April of 2011, and the clinical characteristics were extracted. Results: A total of 92 studies involving 279 patients (157 males and 122 females) were collected, 82.0% of which were from provinces of North China. Most of the cases (97.8%) had a family history of HD, and paternal inheritance (65.5%) was higher than maternal inheritance (34.5%). Onset age was 35.8 (± 11.8) years, death occurred with 45.6 (± 13.5) years after a course of 11.6 (± 5.6) years. Involuntary movements were the most frequent reported presentation (found in 52.3%, including 64.4% in the entire body, 19.8% in the upper limbs, and 13.7% in the head and face). Psychiatric symptoms at onset were reported in 16.1%, and cognitive impairment in 1.8%. With disease progression, 99.6% of patients had abnormal movements, 67.9% cognitive impairment, and 35.0% suffered psychiatric symptoms. Of the reported patients, only 22 underwent IT15 gene testing with positive results. Conclusion: HD is a well-reported entity in Chinese medical literature, however, only a small number of instances have been proven by molecular diagnosis. Most of the features resemble what is known in other countries. The highly predominant motor presentation, and the higher male prevalence as well as the apparent concentration in Northern China may be due to observational bias. There is therefore a need to prospectively examine cohorts of patients with appropriate comprehensive assessment tools including genetic testing.