779 resultados para Coherent and convex risk measure
Resumo:
The learning gap created by summer vacation creates a significant breach in the learning cycle, where student achievement levels decrease over the course ofthe summer (Cooper et aI., 2000). In a review of 39 studies, Cooper and colleagues (1996) specified that the summer learning shortfall equals at least one month loss of instruction as measured by grade level equivalents on standardized test scores. Specifically, the achievement gap has a more profound effect on children as they grow older, where there is a steady deterioration in knowledge and skills sustained during the summer months (Cooper et aI., 1996; Kerry & Davies, 1998). While some stakeholders believe that the benefits of a summer vacation overshadow the reversing effect on achievement, it is the impact of the summer learning gap on vulnerable children, including children who are disadvantaged as a result of requiring special educational needs, children from low socioeconomic backgrounds, and children learning English as a second language, that is most problematic. More specifically, research has demonstrated that it is children's literacy-based skills that are most affected during the summer months. Children from high socioeconomic backgrounds recurrently showed gains in reading achievement over the summer whereas disadvantaged children repeatedly illustrate having significant losses. Consequently, the summer learning gap was deemed to exaggerate the inequality experienced by children from low socioeconomic backgrounds. Ultimately, the summer learning gap was found to have the most profound on vulnerable children, placing these children at an increased chance for academic failure. A primary feature of this research project was to include primary caregivers as authentic partners in a summer family literacy program fabricated to scaffold their children's literacy-based needs. This feature led to the research team adapting and implementing a published study entitled, Learning Begins at Home (LBH): A Research-Based Family Literacy Program Curriculum. Researchers at the Ontario Institute designed this program for the Study of Education, University of Toronto. The LBH program capitalized on incorporating the flexibility required to make the program adaptable to meet the needs of each participating child and his or her primary caregiver. As it has been well documented in research, the role primary caregivers have in an intervention program are the most influential on a child's future literacy success or failure (Timmons, 2008). Subsequently, a requirement for participating in the summer family literacy program required the commitment of one child and one of his or her primary caregivers. The primary caregiver played a fundamental role in the intervention program through their participation in workshop activities prior to and following hands on work with their child. The purpose of including the primary caregiver as an authentic partner in the program was to encourage a definitive shift in the family, whereby caregivers would begin to implement literacy activities in their home on a daily basis. The intervention program was socially constructed through the collaboration of knowledge. The role ofthe author in the study was as the researcher, in charge of analyzing and interpreting the results of the study. There were a total of thirty-six (36) participants in the study; there were nineteen (19) participants in the intervention group and seventeen (17) participants in the control group. All of the children who participated in the study were enrolled in junior kindergarten classrooms within the Niagara Catholic District School Board. Once children were referred to the program, a Speech and Language Pathologist assessed each individual child to identify if they met the eligibility requirements for participation in the summer family literacy intervention program. To be eligible to participate, children were required to demonstrate having significant literacy needs (i.e., below 25%ile on the Test of Preschool Early Literacy described below). Children with low incident disabilities (such as Autism or Intellectual Disabilities) and children with significant English as a Second Language difficulties were excluded from the study. The research team utilized a standard pre-test-post-test comparison group design whereby all participating children were assessed with the Test of Preschool Early Literacy (Lonigan et aI., 2007), and a standard measure of letter identification and letter sound understanding. Pre-intervention assessments were conducted two weeks prior to the intervention program commencing, and the first set of the post-intervention assessments were administered immediately following the completion of the intervention program. The follow-up post-intervention assessments took place in December 2010 to measure the sustainability of the gains obtained from the intervention program. As a result of the program, all of the children in the intervention program scored statistically significantly higher on their literacy scores for Print Knowledge, Letter Identification, and Letter Sound Understanding scores than the control group at the postintervention assessment point (immediately following the completion of the program) and at the December post-intervention assessment point. For Phonological Awareness, there was no statistically significant difference between the intervention group and the control at the postintervention assessment point, however, there was a statistically significant difference found between the intervention group and the control group at the December post-intervention assessment point. In general, these results indicate that the summer family literacy intervention program made an immediate impact on the emergent literacy skills of the participating children. Moreover, these results indicate that the summer family literacy intervention program has the ability to foster the emergent literacy skills of vulnerable children, potentially reversing the negative effect the summer learning gap has on these children.
Resumo:
This paper examines risk taking and CEO excess compensation problems in U.S firms to determine their impact on shareholders wealth. Literature suggests a positive effect of CEO incentive risk and strong corporate governance on CEO risk taking. Furthermore, the strong governance mitigates excess compensation problem. Controlling for governance quality and incentive risk, I provide empirical evidence of a significant association between risk taking and CEO excess compensation. When I also control for pay-performance sensitivity (delta) and feedback effects of incentive compensation on CEO risk taking, I find that higher use of incentive pay encourages risk taking, and due to a high exposure to risk CEOs draws excess compensation. Furthermore, I find that the excess compensation problem is more serious with CEOs taking high risk than with those taking low risk. Finally, I find that CEO risk taking also has structural impacts on CEO compensation
Resumo:
The primary objective of this non-experimental study was to examine the differences based on obesity-related health risk in terms of physical activity, sedentary behaviour and well-being in adults. Participants (N = 50; Mage = 38.50, SDage = 14.21) were asked to wear a SenseWear Armband (SWA) across a seven day monitoring period followed by a questionnaire package. Using the National Institute of Health’s (1998) criteria, participants were classified as either least, increased, or high risk based on waist circumference and Body Mass Index scores. Differences between these classifications were found in the amount of time spent in active energy expenditure for bouts of ten minutes or more (p = .002); specifically between least and high risk (p < .05). No other differences (p > .05) emerged. Participants’ also perceived the SWA as a practical and worthwhile device. Overall, these findings provide practical applications and future directions for health promotional research.
Resumo:
Cancer du poumon associé à l’exposition au nickel, au chrome VI et au cadmium dans le milieu de travail utilisant deux études populationnelles cas-témoins à Montréal. Au début des années 1990, le nickel, le chrome VI et le cadmium ont été classés en tant qu’agents cancérigènes de classe 1 par le CIRC (Centre International de Recherche sur le Cancer). Cependant, les résultats des études ayant permis la classification de ces métaux n’ont pas toujours été reproduits, et d’importantes questions demeurent quant aux effets de ces métaux à de faibles niveaux d’exposition. Un plus grand nombre de recherches empiriques est donc nécessaire afin de réaffirmer la cancérogénicité de ces agents, et d’identifier les circonstances dans lesquelles ils peuvent être néfastes. L'objectif de cette étude était d'explorer la relation entre l’exposition à un des métaux (soit le nickel, le chrome VI, ou le cadmium) et les risques subséquents de développer un cancer du poumon chez des travailleurs provenant de différents milieux de travail qui sont exposés à ces métaux à de différents degrés. Deux études cas-témoins de base populationnelle menées à Montréal ont fourni les données nécessaires pour examiner la cancérogénicité de ces métaux. La première étude était menée entre 1979 et 1986 chez des hommes âgés de 35 à 70 ans ayant un cancer dans l’un de 19 sites anatomiques de cancer sélectionnés. La seconde étude était menée entre 1996 et 2001 chez des hommes et des femmes âgés de 35 à 75 ans, avec un diagnostic de tumeur maligne au poumon. Dans ces deux études, les cas ont été recensés dans tous les hôpitaux de l'île de Montréal, tandis que les contrôles populationnels appariés par âge et stratifiés par sexe, ont été sélectionnés des listes électorales. Une entrevue avec chaque sujet a permis d'obtenir un historique d'emploi détaillé ainsi que des informations précises sur les facteurs de risques socio-économiques et personnels. Les descriptions de poste ont été évaluées par une équipe d'experts chimistes et hygiénistes afin de déterminer si le sujet a été exposé à chaque agent, et pour mesurer à la fois la concentration et la durée de chaque exposition, ainsi que l’exposition cumulative tout au long de la vie de chaque participant. Pour déterminer si une exposition à l’un des trois métaux en cause était associée à une augmentation de l'incidence du cancer du poumon, des données ont été analysées par régression logistique : des ajustements ont été effectués pour des facteurs de confusion pertinents incluant un historique détaillé du tabagisme. Des mesures catégoriques d'exposition cumulée ont été également analysées, ainsi que la modification des effets par le tabagisme. Les deux études ont été analysées séparément, puis par la suite combinées afin d'augmenter la puissance statistique. Les niveaux d'exposition mesurés dans cette population ne semblaient pas poser un excès de risque de cancer du poumon pour les travailleurs exposés au chrome VI. Cependant, ceux qui ont été exposés au nickel ont subi une augmentation significative du risque, et ce, quel que soit leur niveau d'exposition. Le risque de développer un cancer du poumon suite à une exposition au cadmium était élevé, mais pas de manière significative. Pour chacun des trois métaux, le risque de cancer du poumon était très élevé parmi les non-fumeurs, mais pas parmi les fumeurs. L’effet combiné du tabagisme et de l’exposition aux métaux était compatible avec un excès de risque additif. Cependant, les intervalles de confiance dans cette étude tendaient à être larges, et une faiblesse de puissance statistique peut limiter l’interprétation de certains résultats. Cette étude est unique dans la mesure où elle a fourni des preuves empiriques sur les risques de développer le cancer du poumon liés aux faibles niveaux d’exposition au nickel, au chrome VI, ou au cadmium provenant de divers contextes de travail. Dans la plupart des autres études, la majorité des expositions pertinentes n’ont pas été bien contrôlées. À l'inverse, cette étude a bénéficié de la collecte et de la disponibilité d'information détaillée concernant le tabagisme et d’autres facteurs de risque. Les résultats de cette étude ont d'importantes conséquences pour la santé publique, tant au niveau de la détermination des risques pour les travailleurs actuellement exposés à ces métaux, qu'au niveau de l’évaluation des risques pour la population en général, elle-même exposée à ces métaux par le biais de la pollution et de la fumée de cigarette. Cette analyse contribuera fort probablement à une réévaluation par le CIRC de la cancérogénicité de ces métaux. L'exploration de la relation entre les risques de cancer du poumon et l'exposition au nickel, au chrome VI et au cadmium est donc opportune et pertinente.
Resumo:
Objectifs: Évaluer l’association entre l’exposition récréative, professionnelle et globale au soleil et le risque de cancer de la prostate (CaP). Méthodes: Dans le contexte d’une étude cas-témoins sur le CaP menée à Montréal, Canada, des entrevues ont été complétées auprès de 1371 cas incidents de CaP diagnostiqués en 2005-2009, et 1479 témoins de la population générale. Des questionnaires détaillés ont permis d’obtenir de l’information sur la fréquence et la durée de participation à toute activité extérieure lors des loisirs durant l’âge adulte, ainsi qu’une description de chaque emploi tenu au cours de la vie. Une matrice emploi-exposition canadienne a été appliquée à chaque emploi afin d’assigner un niveau d’exposition professionnelle au soleil. Des indices cumulatifs de l’exposition au soleil basés sur le nombre d’événements récréatifs, la durée d’exposition professionnelle, ainsi qu’un indice d’exposition global ont été développés. La régression logistique a été utilisée pour estimer l’association entre chaque indice d’exposition et le CaP, en ajustant pour des variables de confusion potentielles. Résultats: Globalement, il n’y avait pas d’association entre chacun des indices d’exposition et le risque de CaP. Certaines tendances en accord avec un risque légèrement plus faible chez les hommes exposés au soleil ont été observées mais les résultats n’étaient pas statistiquement significatifs et il n’y avait pas de relation dose-réponse. Conclusion: Notre étude apporte peu de soutien à l’hypothèse d’une association entre l’exposition au soleil et le risque de développer un cancer de la prostate.
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Background: Sexual risk behaviors associated with poor information on sexuality have contributed to major public health problems in the area of sexual and reproductive health in teenagers and young adults in Colombia. Objective: To measure the perception of changes in sexual and reproductive risk behavior after the use of a teleconsultation service via mobile devices in a sample of young adults. Methods: A before and after observational study was designed, where a mobile application to inquire about sexual and reproductive health was developed. The perception of changes in sexual and reproductive health risk behaviors in a sample of young adults after the use of the application was measured using the validated survey “Family Health International (FHI) – Behavioral Surveillance Survey (BSS) – Survey for Adults between 15 to 40 Years”. Non-probabilistic convenience recruitment was undertaken through the study´s web page. Participants answered the survey online before and after the use of the mobile application for a six month period (intervention). For the inferential analysis, data was divided into three groups (dichotomous data, discrete quantitative data, and ordinal data), to compare the results of the questions between the first and the second survey. For all tests, a confidence interval of 95% was established. For dichotomous data, the Chi-squared test was used. For quantitative data, we used the Student’s t-test, and for ordinal data, the Mann-Whitney-Wilcoxon test. Results: A total of 257 subjects were registered in the study and met the selection criteria. The pre-intervention survey was answered by 232 subjects, and 127 completely answered the post-intervention survey, of which 54.3% did not use the application, leaving an effective population of 58 subjects for analysis. 53% (n=31) were female, and 47% (n=27) were male. The mean age was 21 years, ranging between 18 and 40 years. The differences between the answers on the first and the second survey were not statistically significant. The main risk behaviors identified in the population were homosexual relations, non-use of condoms, sexual relations with non-regular and commercial partners, the use of psychoactive substances, and ignorance about the symptoms of sexually transmitted diseases and HIV transmission. Conclusions: Although there were no differences between the pre- and post-intervention results, the study revealed different risk behaviors among the participating subjects. These findings highlight the importance of promoting educational strategies on this matter and the importance of providing patients with easily accessible tools with reliable health information.
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En este trabajo se implementa una metodología para incluir momentos de orden superior en la selección de portafolios, haciendo uso de la Distribución Hiperbólica Generalizada, para posteriormente hacer un análisis comparativo frente al modelo de Markowitz.
Resumo:
The separation between ownership and the control of capital in banks generates differences in the preferences for risk among shareholders and the manager. These differences could imply a corporate governance problem in banks with a dispersed ownership, since owners fail to exert control in the allocation of capital. In this paper we examine the relationship between the ownership structure and risk for Colombian banks. Our results suggest that a high ownership concentration leads to higher levels of risk.
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Financial integration has been pursued aggressively across the globe in the last fifty years; however, there is no conclusive evidence on the diversification gains (or losses) of such efforts. These gains (or losses) are related to the degree of comovements and synchronization among increasingly integrated global markets. We quantify the degree of comovements within the integrated Latin American market (MILA). We use dynamic correlation models to quantify comovements across securities as well as a direct integration measure. Our results show an increase in comovements when we look at the country indexes, however, the increase in the trend of correlation is previous to the institutional efforts to establish an integrated market in the region. On the other hand, when we look at sector indexes and an integration measure, we find a decreased in comovements among a representative sample of securities form the integrated market.
Resumo:
El treball desenvolupat en aquesta tesi presenta un profund estudi i proveïx solucions innovadores en el camp dels sistemes recomanadors. Els mètodes que usen aquests sistemes per a realitzar les recomanacions, mètodes com el Filtrat Basat en Continguts (FBC), el Filtrat Col·laboratiu (FC) i el Filtrat Basat en Coneixement (FBC), requereixen informació dels usuaris per a predir les preferències per certs productes. Aquesta informació pot ser demogràfica (Gènere, edat, adreça, etc), o avaluacions donades sobre algun producte que van comprar en el passat o informació sobre els seus interessos. Existeixen dues formes d'obtenir aquesta informació: els usuaris ofereixen explícitament aquesta informació o el sistema pot adquirir la informació implícita disponible en les transaccions o historial de recerca dels usuaris. Per exemple, el sistema recomanador de pel·lícules MovieLens (http://movielens.umn.edu/login) demana als usuaris que avaluïn almenys 15 pel·lícules dintre d'una escala de * a * * * * * (horrible, ...., ha de ser vista). El sistema genera recomanacions sobre la base d'aquestes avaluacions. Quan els usuaris no estan registrat en el sistema i aquest no té informació d'ells, alguns sistemes realitzen les recomanacions tenint en compte l'historial de navegació. Amazon.com (http://www.amazon.com) realitza les recomanacions tenint en compte les recerques que un usuari a fet o recomana el producte més venut. No obstant això, aquests sistemes pateixen de certa falta d'informació. Aquest problema és generalment resolt amb l'adquisició d'informació addicional, se li pregunta als usuaris sobre els seus interessos o es cerca aquesta informació en fonts addicionals. La solució proposada en aquesta tesi és buscar aquesta informació en diverses fonts, específicament aquelles que contenen informació implícita sobre les preferències dels usuaris. Aquestes fonts poden ser estructurades com les bases de dades amb informació de compres o poden ser no estructurades com les pàgines web on els usuaris deixen la seva opinió sobre algun producte que van comprar o posseïxen. Nosaltres trobem tres problemes fonamentals per a aconseguir aquest objectiu: 1 . La identificació de fonts amb informació idònia per als sistemes recomanadors. 2 . La definició de criteris que permetin la comparança i selecció de les fonts més idònies. 3 . La recuperació d'informació de fonts no estructurades. En aquest sentit, en la tesi proposada s'ha desenvolupat: 1 . Una metodologia que permet la identificació i selecció de les fonts més idònies. Criteris basats en les característiques de les fonts i una mesura de confiança han estat utilitzats per a resoldre el problema de la identificació i selecció de les fonts. 2 . Un mecanisme per a recuperar la informació no estructurada dels usuaris disponible en la web. Tècniques de Text Mining i ontologies s'han utilitzat per a extreure informació i estructurar-la apropiadament perquè la utilitzin els recomanadors. Les contribucions del treball desenvolupat en aquesta tesi doctoral són: 1. Definició d'un conjunt de característiques per a classificar fonts rellevants per als sistemes recomanadors 2. Desenvolupament d'una mesura de rellevància de les fonts calculada sobre la base de les característiques definides 3. Aplicació d'una mesura de confiança per a obtenir les fonts més fiables. La confiança es definida des de la perspectiva de millora de la recomanació, una font fiable és aquella que permet millorar les recomanacions. 4. Desenvolupament d'un algorisme per a seleccionar, des d'un conjunt de fonts possibles, les més rellevants i fiable utilitzant les mitjanes esmentades en els punts previs. 5. Definició d'una ontologia per a estructurar la informació sobre les preferències dels usuaris que estan disponibles en Internet. 6. Creació d'un procés de mapatge que extreu automàticament informació de les preferències dels usuaris disponibles en la web i posa aquesta informació dintre de l'ontologia. Aquestes contribucions permeten aconseguir dos objectius importants: 1 . Millorament de les recomanacions usant fonts d'informació alternatives que sigui rellevants i fiables. 2 . Obtenir informació implícita dels usuaris disponible en Internet.
Resumo:
Formal and analytical risk models prescribe how risk should be incorporated in construction bids. However, the actual process of how contractors and their clients negotiate and agree on price is complex, and not clearly articulated in the literature. Using participant observation, the entire tender process was shadowed in two leading UK construction firms. This was compared to propositions in analytical models and significant differences were found. 670 hours of work observed in both firms revealed three stages of the bidding process. Bidding activities were categorized and their extent estimated as deskwork (32%), calculations (19%), meetings (14%), documents (13%), off-days (11%), conversations (7%), correspondence (3%) and travel (1%). Risk allowances of 1-2% were priced in some bids and three tiers of risk apportionment in bids were identified. However, priced risks may sometimes be excluded from the final bidding price to enhance competitiveness. Thus, although risk apportionment affects a contractor’s pricing strategy, other complex, microeconomic factors also affect price. Instead of pricing in contingencies, risk was priced mostly through contractual rather than price mechanisms, to reflect commercial imperatives. The findings explain why some assumptions underpinning analytical models may not be sustainable in practice and why what actually happens in practice is important for those who seek to model the pricing of construction bids.
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The article investigates how purchasing intentions among a sample of Italian consumers are influenced by different levels of risk perception and their trust in food-safety information provided by different sources such as the food industry, government agencies, or consumers' associations. The assessment of the determinants of intention to purchase was carried out by estimating a causal model for the chicken case in which attitudes, subjective norms, and perceived risk play a major role in determining buyer's behavior. In particular, the role of trust in influencing risk perception is highlighted either as a general construct or as specific constructs targeting food chain, policy actors, and the media. [EconLit citations: Q130, Q190, D120]. (C) 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
Resumo:
Observation of adverse drug reactions during drug development can cause closure of the whole programme. However, if association between the genotype and the risk of an adverse event is discovered, then it might suffice to exclude patients of certain genotypes from future recruitment. Various sequential and non-sequential procedures are available to identify an association between the whole genome, or at least a portion of it, and the incidence of adverse events. In this paper we start with a suspected association between the genotype and the risk of an adverse event and suppose that the genetic subgroups with elevated risk can be identified. Our focus is determination of whether the patients identified as being at risk should be excluded from further studies of the drug. We propose using a utility function to? determine the appropriate action, taking into account the relative costs of suffering an adverse reaction and of failing to alleviate the patient's disease. Two illustrative examples are presented, one comparing patients who suffer from an adverse event with contemporary patients who do not, and the other making use of a reference control group. We also illustrate two classification methods, LASSO and CART, for identifying patients at risk, but we stress that any appropriate classification method could be used in conjunction with the proposed utility function. Our emphasis is on determining the action to take rather than on providing definitive evidence of an association. Copyright (C) 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Resumo:
The average UK adult consumes less than three portions of fruit and vegetables daily, despite evidence to suggest that consuming five portions daily could help prevent chronic diseases. It is recommended that fruit juice should only count as one of these portions, as juicing removes fibre and releases sugars. However, fruit juices contain beneficial compounds such as vitamin C and flavonoids and could be a useful source of dietary phytochemicals. Two randomised controlled cross-over intervention studies investigating the effects of chronic and acute consumption of commercially-available fruit- and vegetable-puree-based drinks (FVPD) on bioavailability, antioxidant status and CVD risk factors are described. Blood and urine samples were collected during both studies and vascular tone was measured using laser Doppler imaging. In the chronic intervention study FVPD consumption was found to significantly increase dietary carotenoids (P = 0.001) and vitamin C (P = 0.003). Plasma carotenoids were increased (P = 0.001), but the increase in plasma vitamin C was not significant. There were no significant effects on oxidative stress, antioxidant status and other CVD risk factors. In the acute intervention study FVPD were found to increase total plasma nitrate and nitrite (P = 0.001) and plasma vitamin C (P = 0.002). There was no effect on plasma lipids or uric acid, but there was a lower glucose and insulin peak concentration after consumption of the FVPD compared with the sugar-matched control. There was a trend towards increased vasodilation following both chronic and acute FVPD consumption. All volunteers were retrospectively genotyped for the eNOS G298T polymorphism and the effect of genotype on the measurements is discussed. Overall, there was a non-significant trend towards increased endothelium-dependent vasodilation following both acute and chronic FVPD consumption. However, there was a significant time x treatment effect (P < 0.05) of acute FVPD consumption in individuals with the GG variant of the eNOS gene.
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The leptin receptor (LEPR) is associated with insulin resistance, a key feature of metabolic syndrome (MetS). Gene-fatty acid interactions may affect MetS risk. The objective was to investigate the relationship among LEPR polymorphisms, insulin resistance, and MetS risk and whether plasma fatty acids, a biomarker of dietary fatty acids, modulate this. LEPR polymorphisms (rs10493380, rs1137100, rs1137101, rs12067936, rs1805096, rs2025805, rs3790419, rs3790433, rs6673324, and rs8179183), biochemical measurements, and plasma fatty acid profiles were determined in the LIPGENE-SU.VI.MAX study of MetS cases and matched controls (n = 1754). LEPR rs3790433 GG homozygotes had increased MetS risk compared with the minor A allele carriers [odds ratio (OR) = 1.65; 95% CI: 1.05–2.57; P = 0.028], which may be accounted for by their increased risk of elevated insulin concentrations (OR 2.40; 95% CI: 1.28–4.50; P = 0.006) and insulin resistance (OR = 2.15; 95% CI: 1.18–3.90; P = 0.012). Low (less than median) plasma (n-3) and high (n-6) PUFA status exacerbated the genetic risk conferred by GG homozygosity to hyperinsulinemia (OR 2.92–2.94) and insulin resistance (OR 3.40–3.47). Interestingly, these associations were abolished against a high (n-3) or low (n-6) PUFA background. Importantly, we replicated some of these findings in an independent cohort. Homozygosity for the LEPR rs3790433 G allele was associated with insulin resistance, which may predispose to increased MetS risk. Novel gene-nutrient interactions between LEPR rs3790433 and PUFA suggest that these genetic influences were more evident in individuals with low plasma (n-3) or high plasma (n-6) PUFA.