Human and climatic impact on mires: a case study of Les Amburnex mire, Swiss Jura Mountains

Modern period long-term human and climatic impacts on a small mire in the Jura Mountains were assessed using testate amoebae, macrofossils and pollen. This multiproxy data analysis permitted detailed interpretations of local and regional environmental change and thus a partial disentanglement of the different variables that influence long-term mire development. From the Middle Ages until a.d. 1700 the mire vegetation was characterised by ferns, Caltha and Vaccinium, but then abruptly changed into the modern vegetation characterised by Cyperaceae, Potentilla and Sphagnum. The cause for this change was most probably deforestation, possibly enhanced by climatic cooling. A decrease in trampling intensity by domestic animals from a.d. 1950 onwards allowed Sphagnum growth and climatic warming in the a.d. 1980s and 1990s may have been responsible for considerable changes in the species composition. The mire investigated is an example of the rapid changes in mire vegetation and peat development that occurred throughout the central European mountain region during the past centuries as a result of changing climate and land-use practice. These processes are still active today and will determine the future development of high-altitude mires.

Rapid responses of high-mountain vegetation to early Holocene environmental changes in the Swiss Alps

1 The Early Holocene sediment of a lake at tree line (Gouillé Rion, 2343 m a.s.l.) in the Swiss Central Alps was sampled for plant macrofossils. Thin (0.5 cm) slices, representing time intervals of c. 50 years each from 11 800 to 7800 cal. year bp, were analysed and the data compared with independent palaeoclimatic proxies to study vegetational responses to environmental change. 2 Alpine plant communities (e.g. with Salix herbacea) were established at 11 600–11 500 cal. year bp, when oxygen-isotope records showed that temperatures increased by c. 3–4 °C within decades. Larix decidua trees reached the site at c. 11 350 cal. year bp, probably in response to further warming by 1–2 °C. Forests dominated by L. decidua persisted until 9600 cal. year bp, when Pinus cembra became more important. 3 The dominance of Larix decidua for two millennia is explained by dry summer conditions, and possibly low winter temperatures, which favoured it over the late-successional Pinus cembra. Environmental conditions were a result of variations in the earth's orbit, leading to a maximum of summer and a minimum of winter solar radiation. Other heliophilous and drought-adapted species, such as Dryas octopetala and Juniperus nana, could persist in the open L. decidua forests, but were out-competed when the shade-tolerant P. cembra expanded. 4 The relative importance of Larix decidua decreased during periods of diminished solar radiation at 11 100, 10 100 and 9400 cal. year bp. Stable concentrations of L. decidua indicate that these percentage oscillations were caused by temporary increases of Pinus cembra, Dryas octopetala and Juniperus nana that can be explained by increases in moisture and/or decreases in summer temperature. 5 The final collapse of Larix decidua at 8400 cal. year bp was possibly related to abrupt climatic cooling as a consequence of a large meltwater input to the North Atlantic. Similarly, the temporary exclusion of Pinus cembra from tree line at 10 600–10 200 cal. year bp may be related to slowing down of thermohaline circulation at 10 700–10 300 cal. year bp. 6 Our results show that tree line vegetation was in dynamic equilibrium with climate, even during periods of extraordinarily rapid climatic change. They also imply that forecasted global warming may trigger rapid upslope movements of the tree line of up to 800 m within a few decades or centuries at most, probably inducing large-scale displacements of plant species as well as irrecoverable biodiversity losses.

Plant regeneration directs changes in grassland composition after extreme drought: a 13-year study in southern Switzerland

1. The cover of plant species was recorded annually from 1988 to 2000 in nine spatially replicated plots in a species-rich, semi-natural meadow at Negrentino (southern Alps). This period showed large climatic variation and included the centennial maximum and minimum frequency of days with ≥ 10 mm of rain. 2. Changes in species composition were compared between three 4-year intervals characterized by increasingly dry weather (1988–91), a preceding extreme drought (1992–95), and increasingly wet weather (1997–2000). Redundancy analysis and anova with repeated spatial replicates were used to find trends in vegetation data across time. 3. Recruitment capacity, the potential for fast clonal growth and seasonal expansion rate were determined for abundant taxa and tested in general linear models (GLM) as predictors for rates of change in relative cover of species across the climatically defined 4-year intervals. 4. Relative cover of the major growth forms present, graminoids and forbs, changed more in the period following extreme drought than at other times. Recruitment capacity was the only predictor of species’ rates of change. 5. Following perturbation, re-colonization was the primary driver of vegetation dynamics. The dominant grasses, which lacked high recruitment from seed, therefore decreased in relative abundance. This effect persisted until the end of the study and may represent a lasting response to an extreme climatic event.

The Early Spörer Minimum – A Period of Extraordinary Climate and Socio-economic Changes in Western and Central Europe

Throughout the last millennium, mankind was affected by prolonged deviations from the climate mean state. While periods like the Maunder Minimum in the 17th century have been assessed in greater detail, earlier cold periods such as the 15th century received much less attention due to the sparse information available. Based on new evidence from different sources ranging from proxy archives to model simulations, it is now possible to provide an end-to-end assessment about the climate state during an exceptionally cold period in the 15th century, the role of internal, unforced climate variability and external forcing in shaping these extreme climatic conditions, and the impacts on and responses of the medieval society in Central Europe. Climate reconstructions from a multitude of natural and human archives indicate that, during winter, the period of the early Spörer Minimum (1431–1440 CE) was the coldest decade in Central Europe in the 15th century. The particularly cold winters and normal but wet summers resulted in a strong seasonal cycle that challenged food production and led to increasing food prices, a subsistence crisis, and a famine in parts of Europe. As a consequence, authorities implemented adaptation measures, such as the installation of grain storage capacities, in order to be prepared for future events. The 15th century is characterised by a grand solar minimum and enhanced volcanic activity, which both imply a reduction of seasonality. Climate model simulations show that periods with cold winters and strong seasonality are associated with internal climate variability rather than external forcing. Accordingly, it is hypothesised that the reconstructed extreme climatic conditions during this decade occurred by chance and in relation to the partly chaotic, internal variability within the climate system.

Simulated temperature changes as a result of Antarctic ice sheet growth and CO2 reduction

During the Middle Miocene climate transition about 14 million years ago, the Antarctic ice sheet expanded to near-modern volume. Surprisingly, this ice sheet growth was accompanied by a warming in the surface waters of the Southern Ocean, whereas a slight deep-water temperature increase was delayed by more than 200 thousand years. Here we use a coupled atmosphere-ocean model to assess the relative effects of changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration and ice sheet growth on regional and global temperatures. In the simulations, changes in the wind field associated with the growth of the ice sheet induce changes in ocean circulation, deep-water formation and sea-ice cover that result in sea surface warming and deep-water cooling in large swaths of the Atlantic and Indian ocean sectors of the Southern Ocean. We interpret these changes as the dominant ocean surface response to a 100-thousand-year phase of massive ice growth in Antarctica. A rise in global annual mean temperatures is also seen in response to increased Antarctic ice surface elevation. In contrast, the longer-term surface and deep-water temperature trends are dominated by changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration. We therefore conclude that the climatic and oceanographic impacts of the Miocene expansion of the Antarctic ice sheet are governed by a complex interplay between wind field, ocean circulation and the sea-ice system.

Separating ITCZ- and ENSO-related rainfall changes in the Galápagos over the last 3 kyr using D/H ratios of multiple lipid biomarkers

We present a 3000-yr rainfall reconstruction from the Galápagos Islands that is based on paired biomarker records from the sediment of El Junco Lake. Located in the eastern equatorial Pacific, the climate of the Galápagos Islands is governed by movements of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). We use a novel method for reconstructing past ENSO- and ITCZ-related rainfall changes through analysis of molecular and isotopic biomarker records representing several types of plants and algae that grow under differing climatic conditions. We propose that ?D values of dinosterol, a sterol produced by dinoflagellates, record changes in mean rainfall in El Junco Lake, while dD values of C34 botryococcene, a hydrocarbon unique to the green alga Botryococcus braunii, record changes in rainfall associated with moderate-to-strong El Niño events. We use these proxies to infer changes in mean rainfall and El Niño-related rainfall over the past 3000 yr. During periods in which the inferred change in El Niño-related rainfall opposed the change in mean rainfall, we infer changes in the amount of ITCZ-related rainfall. Simulations with an idealized isotope hydrology model of El Junco Lake help illustrate the interpretation of these proxy reconstructions. Opposing changes in El Niño- and ITCZ-related rainfall appear to account for several of the largest inferred hydrologic changes in El Junco Lake. We propose that these reconstructions can be used to infer changes in frequency and/or intensity of El Niño events and changes in the position of the ITCZ in the eastern equatorial Pacific over the past 3000 yr. Comparison with El Junco Lake sediment grain size records indicates general agreement of inferred rainfall changes over the late Holocene.

Response of nannoplankton to major changes in sea-surface temperature at the South Chatham Rise, southeastern New Zealand

A high-resolution history of paleoceanographic changes in the subpolar waters of the southern margin of the Subtropical Convergence Zone during the last 130 kyr, is present in foraminiferal assemblages of DSDP Site 594. The foraminifera indicate that sea-surface temperatures during the Last Interglacial Climax were warmer than today, and that between substage 5d through to the end of isotope stage 2, temperatures were mostly cooler than Holocene temperatures. The paleotemperatures suggest that (1) the Subtropical Convergence was located over the site during substage 5e, later moving further north, then moving southwards to near the site during the Holocene, and (2) the Polar Front was positioned over the Site during glacial stages 6, 4, 2 and possibly parts of stage 3. Several major events are indicated by the nannofloral assemblages during these large changes in sea-surface temperature and associated reorganization of ocean circulation. First, the time-progressive trends between E. huxleyi and medium to large Gephyrocupsa are unique to this site, with E. huxleyi dominating over medium Gephyrocupsa during stages 5c-a, middle part of stage 4 and after the middle point of stage 3. This unusual trend may (at least partly) be caused by the shift of the Polar Front across the site. Second, upwelling flora (E. huxleyi and small placoliths) increase in abundance during stages 1, 3 and 5, suggesting that upwelling or disturbance of water stratification took place during the interglacials. Thirdly, there are no significant differences between the distribution patterns of the various morphotypes of medium to large Gephyrocupsu, and the combined value of all medium Gephyrocupsu increases in abundance during glacials (stages 2 and 4 and the end of stage 6), similar to the abundance trends in benthic foraminifera. Finally, subordinate nannofossil taxa also show distinctive climatic trends during the last glacial cycle: (1) Syrucosphaera spp. are present in increased abundance during warmer extremes in climate (substages 5e, 5a, and stage 1); (2) Coccolithus pelagicus and Culcidiscus leptoporus dominate the subordinate nannofossil taxa, and their relative proportions seem to provide a useful paleoceanographic index, with C. pelagicus dominating when the Polar Front Zone is over the site (stages 6, 4 and 2), whilst C. leptoporus is relatively more abundant when the STC is positioned over the site (stages 1 and 5e). Increased abundance of C. pelagicus also can indicate intensified coastal upwelling.

Siliceous microfossil assemblage and accumulation rate variations across the Middle Eocene Climatic Optimum at ODP Site 171-1051

The Middle Eocene Climatic Optimum (MECO; ~ 40 million years ago [Ma]) is one of the most prominent transient global warming events in the Paleogene. Although the event is well documented in geochemical and isotopic proxy records at many locations, the marine biotic response to the MECO remains poorly constrained. We present new high-resolution, quantitative records of siliceous microplankton assemblages from the MECO interval of Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 1051 in the subtropical western North Atlantic Ocean, which are interpreted in the context of published foraminiferal and bulk carbonate stable isotope (d18O and d13C) records. High diatom, radiolarian and silicoflagellate accumulation rates between 40.5 and 40.0 Ma are interpreted to reflect an ~ 500 thousand year (kyr) interval of increased nutrient supply and resultant surface-water eutrophication that was associated with elevated sea-surface temperatures during the prolonged onset of the MECO. Relatively low pelagic siliceous phytoplankton sedimentation accompanied the peak MECO warming interval and the termination of the MECO during an ~ 70 kyr interval centered at ~ 40.0 Ma. Following the termination of the MECO, an ~ 200-kyr episode of increased siliceous plankton abundance indicates enhanced nutrient levels between ~ 39.9 and 39.7 Ma. Throughout the Site 1051 record, abundance and accumulation rate fluctuations in neritic diatom taxa are similar to the trends observed in pelagic taxa, implying either similar controls on diatom production in the neritic and pelagic zones of the western North Atlantic or fluctuations in sea level and/or shelf accommodation on the North American continental margin to the west of Site 1051. These results, combined with published records based on multiple proxies, indicate a geographically diverse pattern of surface ocean primary production changes across the MECO. Notably, however, increased biosiliceous accumulation is recorded at both ODP Sites 1051 and 748 (Southern Ocean) in response to MECO warming. This may suggest that increased biosiliceous sediment accumulation, if indeed a widespread phenomenon, resulted from higher continental silicate weathering rates and an increase in silicic acid supply to the oceans over several 100 kyr during the MECO.

Characteristics and changes of thermokarst lakes in Canada, Russia and Sweden

Peat plateaus are widespread at high northern latitudes and are important soil organic carbon reservoirs. A warming climate can cause either increased ground subsidence (thermokarst) resulting in lake formation or increased drainage as the permafrost thaws. A better understanding of spatiotemporal variations in these landforms in relation to climate change is important for predicting the future thawing permafrost carbon feedback. In this study, dynamics in thermokarst lake extent during the last 35-50 years has been quantified through time series analysis of aerial photographs and high-resolution satellite images (IKONOS/QuickBird) in three peat plateau complexes, spread out across the northern circumpolar region along a climatic and permafrost gradient. From the mid-1970s until the mid-2000s there has been an increase in mean annual air temperature, winter precipitation, and ground temperature in all three study areas. The two peat plateaus located in the continuous and discontinuous permafrost zones, respectively, where mean annual air temperatures are below -5°C and ground temperatures are -2°C or colder, have experienced small changes in thermokarst lake extent. In the peat plateau located in the sporadic permafrost zone where the mean annual air temperature is around -3°C, and the ground temperature is close to 0°C, lake drainage and infilling with fen vegetation has been extensive and many new thermokarst lakes have formed. In a future progressively warmer and wetter climate permafrost degradation can cause significant impacts on landscape composition and greenhouse gas exchange also in areas with extensive peat plateaus, which presently still experience stable permafrost conditions.

Benthic foraminiferal response to the emergence of the Isthmus of Panama and coincident paleoceanographic changes

Late Cenozoic benthic foraminiferal faunas from the Caribbean Deep Sea Drilling Project (DSDP) Site 502 (3052 m) and East Pacific DSDP Site 503 (3572 m) were analyzed to interpret bottom-water masses and paleoceanographic changes occurring as the Isthmus of Panama emerged. Major changes during the past 7 Myr occur at 6.7-6.2, 3.4, 2.0, and 1.1 Ma in the Caribbean and 6.7-6.4, 4.0-3.2, 2.1, 1.4, and 0.7 Ma in the Pacific. Prior to 6.7 Ma, benthic foraminiferal faunas at both sites indicate the presence of Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW). After 6.7 Ma benthic foraminiferal faunas indicate a shift to warmer water masses: North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) in the Caribbean and Pacific Deep Water (PDW) in the Pacific. Flow of NADW may have continued across the rising sill between the Caribbean and Pacific until 5.6 Ma when the Pacific benthic foraminiferal faunas suggest a decrease in bottom-water temperatures. After 5.6 Ma deep-water to intermediate-water flow across the sill appears to have stopped as the bottom-water masses on either side of the sill diverge. The second change recorded by benthic foraminiferal faunas occurs at 3.4 Ma in the Caribbean and 4.0-3.2 Ma in the Pacific. At this time the Caribbean is flooded with cold AABW, which is either gradually warmed or is replaced by Glacial Bottom Water (GBW) at 2.0 Ma and by NADW at 1.1 Ma. These changes are related to global climatic events and to the depth of the sill between the Caribbean and Atlantic rather than the rising Isthmus of Panama. Benthic foraminiferal faunas at East Pacific Site 503 indicate a gradual change from cold PDW to warmer PDW between 4.0 and 3.2 Ma. The PDW is replaced by the warmer, poorly oxygenated PIW at 2.1 Ma. Although the PDW affects the faunas during colder intervals between 1.4 and 0.7 Ma, the PIW remains the principal bottom-water mass in the Guatemala Basin of the East Pacific.

Drought risk assessment as changes in the potential stand yield classes and potential forest production for Sitka spruce, Scots pine, and pedunculate oak over the next 80 years in the Great Britain

Probabilistic climate data have become available for the first time through the UK Climate Projections 2009, so that the risk of tree growth change can be quantified. We assess the drought risk spatially and temporally using drought probabilities and tree species vulnerabilities across Britain. We assessed the drought impact on the potential yield class of three major tree species (Picea sitchensis, Pinus sylvestris, and Quercus robur) which presently cover around 59% (400,700 ha) of state-managed forests, across lowland and upland sites. Here we show that drought impacts result mostly in reduced tree growth over the next 80 years when using b1, a1b and a1fi IPCC emissions scenarios. We found a maximum reduction of 94% but also a maximum increase of 56% in potential stand yield class in the 2080s from the baseline climate (1961-1990). Furthermore, potential production over the national forest estate for all three species in the 2080s may decrease due to drought by 42% in the lowlands and 32% in the uplands in comparison to the baseline climate. Our results reveal that potential tree growth and forest production on the national forest estate in Britain is likely to reduce, and indicate where and when adaptation measures are required. Moreover, this paper demonstrates the value of probabilistic climate projections for an important economic and environmental sector.

Trends in climatic variables and future reference evapotranspiration in Duero Valley (Spain)

The impact of climate change and its relation with evapotranspiration was evaluated in the Duero River Basin (Spain). The study shows possible future situations 50 yr from now from the reference evapotranspiration (ETo). The maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), dew point (Td), wind speed (U) and net radiation (Rn) trends during the 1980–2009 period were obtained and extrapolated with the FAO-56 Penman-Montheith equation to estimate ETo. Changes in stomatal resistance in response to increases in CO2 were also considered. Four scenarios were done, taking the concentration of CO2 and the period analyzed (annual or monthly) into consideration. The scenarios studied showed the changes in ETo as a consequence of the annual and monthly trends in the variables Tmax, Tmin, Td, U and Rn with current and future CO2 concentrations (372 ppm and 550 ppm). The future ETo showed increases between 118 mm (11 %) and 55 mm (5 %) with respect to the current situation of the river basin at 1042 mm. The months most affected by climate change are May, June, July, August and September, which also coincide with the maximum water needs of the basin’s crops