Climate change and carbon markets: implications for developing countries

While the Kyoto Protocol provided a framework for reducing the greenhouse gas emissions of industrialized nations, current climate change negotiations envisage future commitments for major co2 emitters among developing countries. This document uses an updated version of the gtap-e general equilibrium model to analyse the economic implications of reducing carbon emissions under different carbon trading scenarios. The participation of developing countries such as China and India would reduce emissions trading costs. Impacts in Latin America would depend on whether a country is an energy exporter or importer and whether the United States reduces emissions. Welfare impacts might be negative depending on the carbon trading scheme adopted and a country’s trading partners.

The effects of climate change on the coasts of Latin America and the Caribbean: Climate variability, dynamics and trends

This effort to study the effects of climate change in the coastal areas of Latin America and the Caribbean has been divided into four main parts in line with the comprehensive risk-assessment methodology developed. The outputs of this regional study are presented in four core documents: an analysis of coastal dynamics and climate variability, a study on the vulnerability of coastal areas, an evaluation of the impacts of climate change and an exploration of how all these different factors can be brought together in an assessment of the risks of the impacts of climate change on the region’s coastal areas. The overall objective of this study is to compile the specific types of information required in order to analyse the economic impacts of climate change in the coastal areas of Latin America and the Caribbean. The area covered by the study encompasses the coastlines of Latin America and the Caribbean (an area totalling approximately 72,182 km in length).

An assessment of the economic impact of Climate Change on the Macroeconomy in the Caribbean

Between 2008 and 2011, the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) worked on a project to assess the economic impact of climate change in the Caribbean. The overall aim is to prepare the Caribbean region to better respond to climate change, while fostering a regional approach to reducing carbon emissions by 2050. This study updates the report on the impact of climate change on the macroeconomy at the regional level and will focus on 9 countries: Aruba, the Bahamas, Barbados, Curacao, the Dominican Republic, Montserrat, Jamaica, Saint Lucia and Trinidad and Tobago.

Financing for climate change in Latin America and the Caribbean in 2014

Quantifying the resources mobilized to tackle climate change makes it possible to ascertain the region’s status in this area and the opportunities it offers. It provides countries with the detailed information they need to move forward and prepare to meet the objectives of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). With accurate, up-to-date information on climate finance flows, countries can define their strategies for the transition to more sustainable development scenarios with a smaller environmental footprint and fiscal agents can identify gaps between supply and demand for specific financial instruments. The hope is that, rather than investment by fund providers and managers in sustainable initiatives with a smaller environmental footprint being an exception or anomaly, it will become a business model that gradually decouples economic development, investment and social inclusion from greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.

Tracking climatically suitable areas for an endemic Cerrado snake under climate change

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Climate Change and Water Resources Management: A Federal Perspective

Many challenges, including climate change, face the Nation’s water managers. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has provided estimates of how climate may change, but more understanding of the processes driving the changes, the sequences of the changes, and the manifestation of these global changes at different scales could be beneficial. Since the changes will likely affect fundamental drivers of the hydrological cycle, climate change may have a large impact on water resources and water resources managers. The purpose of this interagency report prepared by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation), and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is to explore strategies to improve water management by tracking, anticipating, and responding to climate change. The key points below briefly summarize the chapters in this report and represent underlying assumptions needed to address the many impacts of climate change.

Science and the Climate Change Debacle

As I write this on the first business day of 2010, I find myself thinking about the importance of respecting alternative views --- not only alternative political views, but also alternative scientific views. Good science requires that we understand the limits of knowledge and continuously seek the truth through respectful questioning, replication and review. In the climate change debate, which recently culminated in a disappointing and largely ineffective conference in Copenhagen, these salient principles of science were grossly violated. Well respected climate scientists proceeded well beyond the limits of their knowledge and became policy advocates. They demeaned anyone who dared to disagree with their findings or to suggest that limiting CO2 emissions may not be the best policy choice at the present time. Disagreeing with the “experts” became disrespected professional behavior, even within the academic community. This approach has not served the interests of anyone very well.

Evidence for Millennial-Scale Climate Change During Marine Isotope Stages 2 and 3 at Little Lake, Western Oregon, U.S.A.

Pollen and geochemical data from Little Lake, western Oregon, suggest several patterns of millennial-scale environmental change during marine isotope stage (MIS) 2 (14,100–27,600 cal yr B.P.) and the latter part of MIS 3 (27,600–42,500 cal yr B.P.). During MIS 3, a series of transitions between warm- and cold-adapted taxa indicate that temperatures oscillated by ca. 2±–4±C every 1000–3000 yr. Highs and lows in summer insolation during MIS 3 are generally associated with the warmest and coldest intervals. Warm periods at Little Lake correlate with warm sea-surface temperatures in the Santa Barbara Basin. Changes in the strength of the subtropical high and the jet stream may account for synchronous changes at the two sites. During MIS 2, shifts between mesic and xeric subalpine forests suggest changes in precipitation every 1000–3000 yr. Increases in Tsuga heterophylla pollen at 25,000 and 22,000 cal yr B.P. imply brief warmings. Minimum summer insolation and maximum global ice-volumes during MIS 2 correspond to cold and dry conditions. Fluctuations in precipitation at Little Lake do not correlate with changes in the Santa Barbara Basin and may be explained by variations in the strength of the glacial anticyclone and the position of the jet stream.

Climate Change Policy: The Waxman-Markey Bill

The Waxman-Markey Bill is a comprehensive national climate and energy legislation designed to reduce global warming pollution and transition to a clean energy economy. In order to accomplish the first goal, the bill introduces a cap-and-trade program.

Carbon and nitrogen stock and fluxes in coastal Atlantic Forest of southeast Brazil: potential impacts of climate change on biogeochemical functioning

The Atlantic Forest is one of the most important biomes of Brazil. Originally covering approximately 1.5 million of km(2), today this area has been reduced to 12% of its original size. Climate changes may alter the structure and the functioning of this tropical forest. Here we explore how increases in temperature and changes in precipitation distribution could affect dynamics of carbon and nitrogen in coastal Atlantic Forest of the southeast region of Brazil The main conclusion of this article is that the coastal Atlantic Forest has high stocks of carbon and nitrogen above ground, and especially, below ground. An increase in temperature may transform these forests from important carbon sinks to carbon sources by increasing loss of carbon and nitrogen to the atmosphere. However, this conclusion should be viewed with caution because it is based on limited information. Therefore, more studies are urgently needed to enable us to make more accurate predictions.

Pollination services at risk: Bee habitats will decrease owing to climate change in Brazil

Native bees are important providers of pollination services, but there are cumulative evidences of their decline. Global changes such as habitat losses, invasions of exotic species and climate change have been suggested as the main causes of the decline of pollinators. In this study, the influence of climate change on the distribution of 10 species of Brazilian bees was estimated with species distribution modelling. We used Maxent algorithm (maximum entropy) and two different scenarios, an optimistic and a pessimistic, to the years 2050 and 2080. We also evaluated the percentage reduction of species habitat based on the future scenarios of climate change through Geographic Information System (GIS). Results showed that the total area of suitable habitats decreased for all species but one under the different future scenarios. The greatest reductions in habitat area were found for Melipona bicolor bicolor and Melipona scutellaris, which occur predominantly in areas related originally to Atlantic Moist Forest. The species analysed have been reported to be pollinators of some regional crops and the consequence of their decrease for these crops needs further clarification. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Identifying the areas to preserve passion fruit pollination service in Brazilian Tropical Savannas under climate change

The aim of this study was to identify future distribution areas and propose actions to preserve passion fruit pollination service under a scenario of future climate change. We used four species of Xylocopa bees that are important for passion fruit pollination in Brazilian Tropical Savannas. We also used the known forage plant species (33 species) that are associated with this same area, since passion fruit flowers provide only nectar for bees and only during their blossoming period. We used species distribution modeling to predict the potential areas of occurrence for each bee and plant based on the current day distribution and a future climate scenario (moderate projections of climate change to 2050). We used a geographic information system to classify the models and to analyze the future areas for both groups of species. The current day distribution map showed that Xylocopa and plant species occurred primarily in the southern and central-eastern areas of the Brazilian Tropical Savannas. In the north, Xylocopa species only occurred in a small area between the states of Maranhão and Piauí while forage plant species were only observed in the northern part of the Tocantins State. However, both future scenarios (bees and plants) showed a shift in distribution, with occurrence predominantly detected in the northern areas of Brazilian Tropical Savannas. Possible conservation areas and the use of appropriate agricultural practices were suggested to ensure the maintenance of the bee/plant focal species.