Model development for capercaillie (Tetrao urogallus) habitat in the Jura Mountains (Western Switzerland)

Capercaillie, Tetrao urogallus, is a threatened species in central Europe, and Swiss populations declined 40 to 50 % between 1970 and 1985. Capercaillie are sensitive to forest structure, and loss of habitat is a major cause of their decline. Knowledge of habitat characteristics is therefore essential for capercaillie conservation. Here, we present models predicting capercaillie probability of occurrence, based on relevant structural habitat variables. Models were built using multiple logistic regression analyses on capercaillie presence/absence data. Vegetation survey was carried out in July 1999 in a 170-km2 forested area (Jura mountains, canton de Vaud, western Switzerland) inhabited by capercaillie and presence/absence of the species was assessed according to dropping presence/absence. The survey was based on 10-m-radius sample plots each in a 1-km2 forest patch (n = 76 with capercaillie droppings, n = 80 without). A first model included seven out of 27 measured habitat variables and a second model only four. The latter model best represents practical needs. It includes three variables which had a negative impact on capercaillie presence: tree and shrub covers and spruce, Picea excelsa, shrub cover, and one which had a positive effect: bilberry, Vaccinium myrtillus, cover, highlighting that capaercaillie selected open forest with high bilberry abundance. The model can be used to map potential capercaillie habitat distribution and to manage the habitat in favour of capercaillie (protection and adapted forestry practices) in the Swiss Jura mountains.

Patient expectations at a multicultural out-patient clinic in Switzerland.

BACKGROUND: Recognizing patient expectation is considered as an important objective for primary care physicians. A number of studies suggest that failure to identify patient expectations can lead to patient dissatisfaction with care, lack of compliance and inappropriate use of medical resources. It has been suggested that identifying patient expectations in multicultural contexts can be especially challenging. OBJECTIVES: The aim of the study was to compare health care expectations of Swiss and immigrant patients attending the out-patient clinic of a Swiss university hospital and to assess physicians' ability to identify their patients' expectations. METHODS: Over a 3-month period, all patients attending the out-patient clinic at a Swiss university hospital were requested to complete pre-consultation surveys. Their physicians were requested to complete post-consultation surveys. Outcome measures were patients' self-rated health, resort to prior home treatment, patients' expectations of the consultation, physicians' perception of their patients' expectations and agreement between patients and physicians. RESULTS: We analysed 343 questionnaires completed by patients prior to their consultation (> 50% immigrants) and 333 questionnaires completed by their physicians after the consultation. Most expectations were shared by all patients. Physicians had inaccurate perceptions of their patients' expectations, regardless of patients' origin. CONCLUSIONS: Our study found no evidence that immigrant patients' expectations differed from those of Swiss patients, nor that physicians had more difficulty identifying expectations of immigrant patients. However, physicians in our study were generally poor at identifying patients' expectations, and therefore inter-group differences may be difficult to detect. Our results point to the need to strengthen physicians' general communication skills which should then serve as a foundation for more specific, cross-cultural communication training.

Sport and alcohol: An emergency department study in Switzerland.

The aim of the present study was to empirically determine whether: (a) sport injuries were associated with alcohol consumption before the injury (acute intake) and with usual consumption patterns (chronic high intake and heavy intake on single occasions); (b) the risk of sport injuries related to alcohol consumption differs from that of other injuries; and (c) there are differences between the sexes and between types of sport. Data from 8694 patients attending the emergency department of Lausanne University Hospital between 1 January 2003 and 30 June 2004 were analysed. Of those patients, 4861 came to the hospital because of an injury and 885 patients were identified as having a sport injury (18.2%). Logistic regression was used to estimate the odds ratios of injury relating to alcohol consumption. With increasingly acute intake, the risk of sport and other injuries increased (sports injury and alcohol use in the 6 h before injury compared with no use: odds ratio=4.29, 7.46, and 14.75 for low, medium, and high alcohol use among women, and 2.81, 3.39, and 1.64 for low, medium, and high alcohol use among men). Alcohol consumption was associated with an increasingly higher risk of sport injuries compared with other injuries among women (consumption 6 h before injury: odds ratio=1.12, 1.23, and 1.56 for low, medium, and high alcohol use), but not men (odds ratio=1.17, 0.83, and 0.23 for low, medium, and high alcohol use). Regarding usual consumption patterns, those men and women injured while exercising were more often at-risk drinkers (men: 44%; women: 25%) compared with those injured during other activities (men: 37%; women: 13%). The results indicate that both men and women, but particularly women, should not practise sports after alcohol ingestion. The study raises questions as to whether sport should be generally promoted as an alternative to alcohol consumption in prevention programmes. Whereas some sports seem to be protective (e.g. endurance and fitness sport) for risky alcohol use, the majority are not. It is important to note, however, that we do not dismiss the beneficial effects of practising for an individual's health. The other positive aspect of practising, namely interacting socially with others, may come at the price of an increased alcohol use, particularly in a wet culture like Switzerland where any social contact is often accompanied by alcohol consumption.

Compliance with the Swiss Society for Nutrition's dietary recommendations in the population of Geneva, Switzerland: a 10-year trend study (1999-2009).

The trends in compliance with the dietary recommendations of the Swiss Society for Nutrition in the Geneva population were assessed for the period from 1999 to 2009 using 10 cross-sectional, population-based surveys (Bus Santé study) with a total of 9,320 participants aged 35 to 75 years (50% women). Dietary intake was assessed using a self-administered, validated, semi-quantitative food frequency questionnaire. Trends were assessed by logistic regression adjusting for age, smoking status, education, and nationality using survey year as the independent variable. After excluding participants with extreme intakes, the percentage of participants with a cholesterol intake of <300 mg/day increased from 40.8% in 1999 to 43.6% in 2009 for men (multivariate-adjusted P for trend=0.04) and from 57.8% to 61.4% in women (multivariate-adjusted P for trend=0.06). Calcium intake >1 g/day decreased from 53.3% to 46% in men and from 47.6% to 40.7% in women (multivariate-adjusted P for trend<0.001). Adequate iron intake decreased from 68.3% to 65.3% in men and from 13.3% to 8.4% in women (multivariate-adjusted P for trend<0.001). Conversely, no significant changes were observed for carbohydrates, protein, total fat (including saturated, monounsaturated, and polyunsaturated fatty acids), fiber, and vitamins D and A. We conclude that the quality of the Swiss diet did not improve between 1999 and 2009 and that intakes deviate substantially from expert recommendations for health promotion and chronic disease risk reduction.

Predictive analysis and mapping of indoor radon concentrations in Switzerland

It is estimated that around 230 people die each year due to radon (222Rn) exposure in Switzerland. 222Rn occurs mainly in closed environments like buildings and originates primarily from the subjacent ground. Therefore it depends strongly on geology and shows substantial regional variations. Correct identification of these regional variations would lead to substantial reduction of 222Rn exposure of the population based on appropriate construction of new and mitigation of already existing buildings. Prediction of indoor 222Rn concentrations (IRC) and identification of 222Rn prone areas is however difficult since IRC depend on a variety of different variables like building characteristics, meteorology, geology and anthropogenic factors. The present work aims at the development of predictive models and the understanding of IRC in Switzerland, taking into account a maximum of information in order to minimize the prediction uncertainty. The predictive maps will be used as a decision-support tool for 222Rn risk management. The construction of these models is based on different data-driven statistical methods, in combination with geographical information systems (GIS). In a first phase we performed univariate analysis of IRC for different variables, namely the detector type, building category, foundation, year of construction, the average outdoor temperature during measurement, altitude and lithology. All variables showed significant associations to IRC. Buildings constructed after 1900 showed significantly lower IRC compared to earlier constructions. We observed a further drop of IRC after 1970. In addition to that, we found an association of IRC with altitude. With regard to lithology, we observed the lowest IRC in sedimentary rocks (excluding carbonates) and sediments and the highest IRC in the Jura carbonates and igneous rock. The IRC data was systematically analyzed for potential bias due to spatially unbalanced sampling of measurements. In order to facilitate the modeling and the interpretation of the influence of geology on IRC, we developed an algorithm based on k-medoids clustering which permits to define coherent geological classes in terms of IRC. We performed a soil gas 222Rn concentration (SRC) measurement campaign in order to determine the predictive power of SRC with respect to IRC. We found that the use of SRC is limited for IRC prediction. The second part of the project was dedicated to predictive mapping of IRC using models which take into account the multidimensionality of the process of 222Rn entry into buildings. We used kernel regression and ensemble regression tree for this purpose. We could explain up to 33% of the variance of the log transformed IRC all over Switzerland. This is a good performance compared to former attempts of IRC modeling in Switzerland. As predictor variables we considered geographical coordinates, altitude, outdoor temperature, building type, foundation, year of construction and detector type. Ensemble regression trees like random forests allow to determine the role of each IRC predictor in a multidimensional setting. We found spatial information like geology, altitude and coordinates to have stronger influences on IRC than building related variables like foundation type, building type and year of construction. Based on kernel estimation we developed an approach to determine the local probability of IRC to exceed 300 Bq/m3. In addition to that we developed a confidence index in order to provide an estimate of uncertainty of the map. All methods allow an easy creation of tailor-made maps for different building characteristics. Our work is an essential step towards a 222Rn risk assessment which accounts at the same time for different architectural situations as well as geological and geographical conditions. For the communication of 222Rn hazard to the population we recommend to make use of the probability map based on kernel estimation. The communication of 222Rn hazard could for example be implemented via a web interface where the users specify the characteristics and coordinates of their home in order to obtain the probability to be above a given IRC with a corresponding index of confidence. Taking into account the health effects of 222Rn, our results have the potential to substantially improve the estimation of the effective dose from 222Rn delivered to the Swiss population.

Trends in cancer mortality in Switzerland, 1951-1984.

Trends in overall age-standardized, truncated (35-64 years) and age-specific (40 to 49) cancer death certification rates in Switzerland from 1951 to 1984 were analysed. There was a substantial rise in lung cancer mortality in males, with an over 100% increase in overall rates. Thus, in the early 1980's, lung cancer alone accounted for 26% of all cancer deaths in Swiss males. However, male lung cancer rates tended to level off in subsequent cohorts starting from younger middle age in the late 1960's. In females, lung cancer mortality was approximately ten times lower than in males, but rates had been consistently rising since the late 1960's in all age groups. Declines were observed for several neoplasms of the digestive tract: besides stomach (overall decline 68% in males, 77% in females), trends were markedly downwards also for oesophageal cancer in males (-57%), and there was some moderate fall for intestinal sites in both sexes and gallbladder in females. Several trends for other common neoplasms were similar to those observed in other developed countries, such as the declines for (cervix) uteri, the general stability for breast cancer, or the increases in pancreatic cancer and (melanoma) of the skin. A peculiar feature of Swiss data, besides the marked decline in oesophageal cancer in males, was the consistent downward trend in thyroid cancer for both sexes. Thus, overall age-standardized total cancer mortality over the last three decades was moderately upwards in Swiss males, but consistently downwards in females. Male trends were more reassuring in middle age, chiefly in consequence of the flattening in lung cancer rises. Possible interpretations of these trends in terms of aetiological hypotheses (i.e., changes in alcohol drinking and improvements in diet for oesophageal cancer, or reduced prevalence of iodine deficiency for thyroid neoplasms) are discussed.

Contrôle d'une épidémie d'entérocoques résistant à la vancomycine dans plusieurs hôpitaux de Suisse romande [Control of an outbreak of vancomycin-resistant enterococci in several hospitals of western Switzerland].

An outbreak of vancomycin-resistant enterococci (VRE) occurred in 2011 in several hospitals of western Switzerland. Given that VRE can spread rapidly within hospitals and due to the potential transfer of resistance genes to other nosocomial pathogens like MRSA, stringent control measures were implemented. Excellent coordination of control measures between partner healthcare settings was successful in stopping the outbreak.

Exploring the periodicity of cardiovascular events in Switzerland: variation in deaths and hospitalizations across seasons, day of the week and hour of the day.

PURPOSE: The purpose of this study is to explore the periodical patterns of events and deaths related to cardiovascular disease (CVD), acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and stroke in Swiss adults (≥ 18 years). METHODS: Mortality data for period 1969-2007 (N=869,863 CVD events) and hospitalization data for period 1997-2008 (N=959,990 CVD events) were used. The annual, weekly and circadian distribution of CVD-related deaths and events were assessed. Multivariate analysis was conducted using multinomial logistic regression adjusting for age, gender and calendar year and considering deaths from respiratory diseases, accidents or other causes as competitive events. RESULTS: CVD deaths and hospitalizations occurred less frequently in the summer months. Similar patterns were found for AMI and stroke. No significant weekly variation for CVD deaths was found. Stratification by age and gender showed subjects aged <65 years to present a higher probability of dying on Mondays and Saturday, only for men. This finding was confirmed after multivariate adjustment. Finally, a circadian variation in CVD mortality was observed, with a first peak in the morning (8-12 am) and a smaller second peak in the late afternoon (2-6 pm). This pattern persisted after multivariate adjustment and was more pronounced for AMI than for stroke. CONCLUSION: There is a periodicity of hospitalizations and deaths related to CVD, AMI and stroke in Switzerland. This pattern changes slightly according to the age and sex of the subjects. Although the underlying mechanisms are not fully identified, preventive measures should take into account these aspects to develop better strategies of prevention and management of CVD.