969 resultados para Chance.


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As architects and designers we have a responsibility to provide an inclusive built environment. For the Autistic Spectrum Disorder (ASD) sufferer however, the built environment can be a frightening and confusing place, difficult to negotiate and tolerate. The challenge of integrating more fully into society is denied by an alienating built environment. This barrier can be magnified for ASD pupils in a poorly designed school, where their environment can further distance them from learning. Instead, if more at ease in their surroundings, in an ASD friendly environment, the ASD pupil stands a greater chance of doing better.

Whilst researchers have looked at the classroomenvironment, the transition of classroom to corridor andbeyond has so far been largely ignored. However, theneed for a well-considered threshold between class andcorridor needs to be considered. In this regard, threshold is much more than a doorway, but instead an event that demands a carefully considered place. The following paper firstly outlines why threshold as place andevent for the ASD pupil should be given consideration. It then goes onto highlight, through case studies in anIrish context, the opportunities for aiding the ASD pupil integrating in a mainstream school environment throughsensitive use of threshold. Finally it highlights inconclusion, some of the benefits for an enriched school environment for all pupils, if considering threshold as design generator.The objective is straightforward. By increasing awareness of the relationship between the ASD child and the built environment it will hopefully facilitate greater inclusion of the ASD pupil into mainstream education and society at large.

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BACKGROUND: Inappropriate prescribing is a well-documented problem in older people. The new screening tools, STOPP (Screening Tool of Older Peoples' Prescriptions) and START (Screening Tool to Alert doctors to Right Treatment) have been formulated to identify potentially inappropriate medications (PIMs) and potential errors of omissions (PEOs) in older patients. Consistent, reliable application of STOPP and START is essential for the screening tools to be used effectively by pharmacists. OBJECTIVE: To determine the interrater reliability among a group of clinical pharmacists in applying the STOPP and START criteria to elderly patients' records. METHODS: Ten pharmacists (5 hospital pharmacists, 5 community pharmacists) were given 20 patient profiles containing details including the patients' age and sex, current medications, current diagnoses, relevant medical histories, biochemical data, and estimated glomerular filtration rate. Each pharmacist applied the STOPP and START criteria to each patient record. The PIMs and PEOs identified by each pharmacist were compared with those of 2 academic pharmacists who were highly familiar with the application of STOPP and START. An interrater reliability analysis using the k statistic (chance corrected measure of agreement) was performed to determine consistency between pharmacists. RESULTS: The median ? coefficients for hospital pharmacists and community pharmacists compared with the academic pharmacists for STOPP were 0.89 and 0.88, respectively, while those for START were 0.91 and 0.90, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Interrater reliability of STOPP and START tools between pharmacists working in different sectors is good. Pharmacists working in both hospitals and in the community can use STOPP and START reliably during their everyday practice to identify PIMs and PEOs in older patients.

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We present a detailed analysis of time-resolved optical spectra of the ZZ Ceti white dwarf, HS 0507+0434B. Using the wavelength dependence of observed mode amplitudes, we deduce the spherical degree, l, of the modes, most of which have l = 1. The presence of a large number of combination frequencies (linear sums or differences of the real modes) enabled us not only to test theoretical predictions but also to indirectly infer spherical and azimuthal degrees of real modes that had no observed splittings. In addition to the above, we measure line-of-sight velocities from our spectra. We find only marginal evidence for periodic modulation associated with the pulsation modes: at the frequency of the strongest mode in the lightcurve, we measure an amplitude of 2.6 +/- 1.0 kms(-1), which has a probability of 2% of being due to chance; for the other modes, we find lower values. Our velocity amplitudes and upper limits are smaller by a factor of two compared to the amplitudes found in ZZ Psc. We find that this is consistent with expectations based on the position of HS 0507+0434B in the instability strip. Combining all the available information from data such as ours is a first step towards constraining atmospheric properties in a convectionally unstable environment from an observational perspective.

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Here we present a novel experimental approach to examine the relationship between diversity and ecosystem Function. We develop four null predictive models, with which to differentiate between the 'sampling effect' - the chance inclusion of a highly productive species, and 'species complementarity' - the complementary use of resources by species that differ in their niche or resource use. We investigate the effects of manipulating species and functional richness on ecosystem function in marine benthic system and using empirical data from our own experiments we illustrate the application of these models.

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This paper describes the result of a project to develop climate adaptation design strategies funded by the UK’s Technology Strategy Board. The aim of the project was to look at the effects of climate change in the distant future (2080) on a vulnerable group such as older people with special needs and see how architectural design strategies and technologies may be used today to help mitigate problems ahead caused by climate change.
Older people are the most vulnerable sector of society and are particularly at risk in extreme weather, either excess cold in winter or continual high temperatures in summer. In the UK it is predicted that average temperatures may rise by as much as 8 degrees in Summer by 2080 and there will be a 20% greater chance of extreme weather events. This will place extreme stress on the building stock which is designed for today’s mild maritime climate.
The project took a current proposal for an extra-care home for the elderly designed to 2010 regulations and developed a road map to 2080 using climate models developed by the UK Meteorological Office. This allowed the current design to be assessed using future climatic data, proposals for improvement of the scheme to be made within existing constraints and also a new scheme to be developed from first principals using this data, and projections of new technologies that will be available. By comparing these schemes, the approach allowed a reassessment of the initial scheme, and allowed a new design to be developed that offered a more flexible solution incorporating future retrofit which allows new renewable technologies for heating, cooling and water storage to be added at a later date.

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Predicting how species distributions might shift as global climate changes is fundamental to the successful adaptation of conservation policy. An increasing number of studies have responded to this challenge by using climate envelopes, modeling the association between climate variables and species distributions. However, it is difficult to quantify how well species actually match climate. Here, we use null models to show that species-climate associations found by climate envelope methods are no better than chance for 68 of 100 European bird species. In line with predictions, we demonstrate that the species with distribution limits determined by climate have more northerly ranges. We conclude that scientific studies and climate change adaptation policies based on the indiscriminate use of climate envelope methods irrespective of species sensitivity to climate may be misleading and in need of revision.

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Architects and designers have a responsibility to provide an inclusive built environment. However for those with a diagnosis of Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD), the built environment can be a frightening and confusing place, difficult to negotiate and tolerate. The challenge of integrating more fully into society is denied by an alienating built environment. For ASD pupils in a poorly designed school, their environment can distance them from learning. Instead, if more at ease in their surroundings, in an ASD-friendly environment, the ASD pupil stands a greater chance of doing better.

However a difficulty exists in that most architects are not knowledgeable in designing for those with ASD. Any available design guidelines for architects tend, because of the inherent difficulties associated with a spectrum, to be general in their information. Therefore, if wanting to provide an ASD-friendly learning environment, there is a need to ensure that teachers, as the experts, can most clearly and effectively impart their knowledge and requirements to architects.

This paper sets out the challenges and difficulties inherent in the design process when designing for ASD. It then sets out an alternative strategy to the usual method of drawing-centric dialogue between teacher and architect by using models instead as a basis for a more common language. An ASD Classroom Design Kit was designed and developed by Queen’s University of Belfast Architecture students. It was then used by ASD teaching staff from the Southern Education and Library Board in Northern Ireland as a case study to trial its effectiveness. The paper outlines how the study was carried out before concluding with reflections by both teaching staff and architect on using the ASD Classroom Design Kit.

It is hoped that this paper will firstly highlight the need for better dialogue between expert and architect when considering ASD and the Built Environment and secondly, that it may encourage others to consider using models to convey their ideas and knowledge when designing, not just for ASD, but for other Special Educational Needs and disabilities.

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This research involved carrying out an online survey using a number of vignettes/scenarios to explore understandings and attitudes to judicial appointments. This sort of survey is relatively novel in this context and provided a useful way of understanding how a range of factors such as merit and seniority, career paths and connections, as well as gender and visibility, are perceived as operating within the appointments system. The research also involved a series of focus group interviews with a number of individuals with various professional backgrounds and at different levels of seniority. These, and a limited number of individual interviews, afforded an opportunity to explore more closely some of the themes arising from the scenarios as well as a chance to look in some depth at some of the views and concerns of a range of members of the legal professions.

Building upon the previous research project, this work was less concerned with revisiting earlier themes and more interested in exploring how the idea of “merit” as a governing factor in judicial appointment is seen as working in practice, and whether it is perceived as being most likely to be found within particular career profiles. We also investigated issues such as the possible development of formal and informal pathways to a judicial career and practical problems such as how an applicant might become known to the senior judiciary, and the importance of this. Overall our interest was primarily in developing an understanding of how gender is perceived to operate in the appointments process and how any barriers to recruiting women, particularly to the senior judiciary, could be further broken down.

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The working process of an architect is not often shown publicly, as the finished buildings, more particularly images and publications on them tend to dominate how architecture is communicated. In this there is something lost. The experience of the building, which is its most valuable aspect, is only possible by being there physically. Photography and other means of representation of architecture can tend to an overly perfected and artificial read of both the building and how the design was produced. In truth the design process for a building is a complex one, full of chance discoveries, multiple abandoned ideas, and refinement which is lateral as well as rational.

When we were asked to exhibit it struck us that we should address this deficit in some small way. These are models made as part of the design process for four projects (an arts centre, a womens refuge, a villa and four artists studios). An important part of our work method is to try to explore the material qualities of the buildings we are working on. To advance this we commonly make models to allow us to make discoveries and to advance the project so that the finished building is imbued with material and spatial character. These models are not made to show the final design of the building but to highlight an aspect that we are interested in exploring, in some cases this is about a space, in others about texture and its relationship to form. We chose these four models as all in some way allowed us to make discoveries about the project being explored. This discovery, once made, is what we value. The model itself serves only to produce this, and once made we can cast off the model and move on. We show them, not as architecture, but as touchstones for ideas out of which architecture may come.

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It has long been recognised that dispersal abilities and environmental factors are important in shaping invertebrate communities, but their relative importance for primary soil community assembly has not yet been disentangled. By studying soil communities along chronosequences on four recently emerged nunataks (ice-free land in glacial areas) in Iceland, we replicated environmental conditions spatially at various geographical distances. This allowed us to determine the underlying factors of primary community assembly with the help of metacommunity theories that predict different levels of dispersal constraints and effects of the local environment. Comparing community assembly of the nunataks with that of non-isolated deglaciated areas indicated that isolation of a few kilometres did not affect the colonisation of the soil invertebrates. When accounting for effects of geographical distances, soil age and plant richness explained a significant part of the variance observed in the distribution of the oribatid mites and collembola communities, respectively. Furthermore, null model analyses revealed less co-occurrence than expected by chance and also convergence in the body size ratio of co-occurring oribatids, which is consistent with species sorting. Geographical distances influenced species composition, indicating that the community is also assembled by dispersal, e.g. mass effect. When all the results are linked together, they demonstrate that local environmental factors are important in structuring the soil community assembly, but are accompanied with effects of dispersal that may "override" the visible effect of the local environment.

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Some commentators worry that a plurinational constitutional order can only ever be an inherently unstable modus vivendi. They fear that the accommodation of sub-state nationalism will tend to undermine the viability of constitutional democracies. This article enlists Ronald Dworkin’s theory of ‘law as integrity’ to show how these concerns might be assuaged. My central claim is that the expressive value of integrity can drive a divided society in the direction of an eventual community of principle, even in the absence of a common political identity. I argue that this model of political community is a more plausible prescription for divided societies than the theory that competing nationalisms might be superseded by constitutional patriotism. I go on to explain, however, that integrity has a better chance of realizing this potential if the generally judge-centric focus of Dworkin’s theory is expanded to make greater room for non-judicial interpretative responsibility. Occasional references are made to the example of Northern Ireland to illustrate my points.

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Integrating evidence from multiple domains is useful in prioritizing disease candidate genes for subsequent testing. We ranked all known human genes (n = 3819) under linkage peaks in the Irish Study of High-Density Schizophrenia Families using three different evidence domains: 1) a meta-analysis of microarray gene expression results using the Stanley Brain collection, 2) a schizophrenia protein-protein interaction network, and 3) a systematic literature search. Each gene was assigned a domain-specific p-value and ranked after evaluating the evidence within each domain. For comparison to this
ranking process, a large-scale candidate gene hypothesis was also tested by including genes with Gene Ontology terms related to neurodevelopment. Subsequently, genotypes of 3725 SNPs in 167 genes from a custom Illumina iSelect array were used to evaluate the top ranked vs. hypothesis selected genes. Seventy-three genes were both highly ranked and involved in neurodevelopment (category 1) while 42 and 52 genes were exclusive to neurodevelopment (category 2) or highly ranked (category 3), respectively. The most significant associations were observed in genes PRKG1, PRKCE, and CNTN4 but no individual SNPs were significant after correction for multiple testing. Comparison of the approaches showed an excess of significant tests using the hypothesis-driven neurodevelopment category. Random selection of similar sized genes from two independent genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of schizophrenia showed the excess was unlikely by chance. In a further meta-analysis of three GWAS datasets, four candidate SNPs reached nominal significance. Although gene ranking using integrated sources of prior information did not enrich for significant results in the current experiment, gene selection using an a priori hypothesis (neurodevelopment) was superior to random selection. As such, further development of gene ranking strategies using more carefully selected sources of information is warranted.

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A set of 138 "mesostics" from Ciaran Carson's novel "The Star Factory" poems derived from the chance determination procedure devised by John Cage and set out in the score of his "Roaratorio: An Irish Circus on Finnegan's Wake," a musical realisation of James Joyce's novel 'Finnegan's Wake." The publication forms part of a portfolio on the project "Owenvarragh: A belfast Circus on The Star Factory", published in the special John Cage issue of this journal.

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We examine mid- to late Holocene centennial-scale climate variability in Ireland using proxy data from peatlands, lakes and a speleothem. A high degree of between-record variability is apparent in the proxy data and significant chronological uncertainties are present. However, tephra layers provide a robust tool for correlation and improve the chronological precision of the records. Although we can find no statistically significant coherence in the dataset as a whole, a selection of high-quality peatland water table reconstructions co-vary more than would be expected by chance alone. A locally weighted regression model with bootstrapping can be used to construct a ‘best-estimate’ palaeoclimatic reconstruction from these datasets. Visual comparison and cross-wavelet analysis of peatland water table compilations from Ireland and Northern Britain show that there are some periods of coherence between these records. Some terrestrial palaeoclimatic changes in Ireland appear to coincide with changes in the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation and solar activity. However, these relationships are inconsistent and may be obscured by chronological uncertainties. We conclude by suggesting an agenda for future Holocene climate research in Ireland. ©2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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The temporal priority principle states that all causes must precede their effects. It is widely assumed that children's causal reasoning is guided by this principle from early in development. However, the empirical studies that have examined children's use of the principle, most of which were conducted some decades ago, in fact show inconsistent findings. Some researchers have argued that 3-year-olds reliably use this principle, whereas others have suggested that it is not until 5 years that children properly grasp the inviolability of the principle. To examine this issue, 100 children, 50 three-year-olds, and 50 four-year-olds, took part in a study in which they had to judge which of two causes yielded an effect. In the task, children saw one event (A), an effect (E), and then another event (B). The events A and B involved the rolling of balls down runways, and the effect E was a Jack-in-a-box popping up. The extent to which E left a visible trace was also varied, because comparisons across previous studies suggested that this may affect performance. As a group, 3- and 4-year-olds performed at above-chance levels, but performance improved with age. The nature of the effect did not have a significant impact on performance. Although some previous studies suggested that 3-year-olds may be more likely to choose B rather than A as a cause due to a recency effect, we found no evidence of this pattern of performance in the younger group. Potential explanations of the age-related improvement in performance are discussed. © 2013 Desmet.