An inter-hemispheric comparison of the tropical storm response to global warming

Model studies do not agree on future changes in tropical cyclone (TC) activity on regional scales. We aim to shed further light on the distribution, frequency, intensity, and seasonality of TCs that society can expect at the end of the twenty-first century in the Southern hemisphere (SH). Therefore, we investigate TC changes simulated by the atmospheric model ECHAM5 with T213 (~60 km) horizontal resolution. We identify TCs in present-day (20C; 1969–1990) and future (21C; 2069–2100) time slice simulations, using a tracking algorithm based on vorticity at 850 hPa. In contrast to the Northern hemisphere (NH), where tropical storm numbers reduce by 6 %, there is a more dramatic 22 % reduction in the SH, mainly in the South Indian Ocean. While an increase of static stability in 21C may partly explain the reduction in tropical storm numbers, stabilization cannot alone explain the larger SH drop. Large-scale circulation changes associated with a weakening of the Tropical Walker Circulation are hypothesized to cause the strong decrease of cyclones in the South Indian Ocean. In contrast the decrease found over the South Pacific appears to be partly related to increased vertical wind shear, which is possibly associated with an enhanced meridional sea surface temperature gradient. We find the main difference between the hemispheres in changes of the tropical cyclones of intermediate strength with an increase in the NH and a decrease in the SH. In both hemispheres the frequency of the strongest storms increases and the frequency of the weakest storms decreases, although the increase in SH intense storms is marginal.

Atmospheric impact of Arctic Sea ice loss in a coupled ocean–atmosphere simulation

The atmospheric response to an idealized decline in Arctic sea ice is investigated in a novel fully coupled climate model experiment. In this experiment two ensembles of single-year model integrations are performed starting on 1 April, the approximate start of the ice melt season. By perturbing the initial conditions of sea ice thickness (SIT), declines in both sea ice concentration and SIT, which result in sea ice distributions that are similar to the recent sea ice minima of 2007 and 2012, are induced. In the ice loss regions there are strong (~3 K) local increases in sea surface temperature (SST); additionally, there are remote increases in SST in the central North Pacific and subpolar gyre in the North Atlantic. Over the central Arctic there are increases in surface air temperature (SAT) of ~8 K due to increases in ocean–atmosphere heat fluxes. There are increases in SAT over continental North America that are in good agreement with recent changes as seen by reanalysis data. It is estimated that up to two-thirds of the observed increase in SAT in this region could be related to Arctic sea ice loss. In early summer there is a significant but weak atmospheric circulation response that projects onto the summer North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). In early summer and early autumn there is an equatorward shift of the eddy-driven jet over the North Atlantic as a result of a reduction in the meridional temperature gradients. In winter there is no projection onto a particular phase of the NAO.

Decadal predictions with the HiGEM high resolution global coupled climate model: description and basic evaluation

This paper describes the development and basic evaluation of decadal predictions produced using the HiGEM coupled climate model. HiGEM is a higher resolution version of the HadGEM1 Met Office Unified Model. The horizontal resolution in HiGEM has been increased to 1.25◦ × 0.83◦ in longitude and latitude for the atmosphere, and 1/3◦ × 1/3◦ globally for the ocean. The HiGEM decadal predictions are initialised using an anomaly assimilation scheme that relaxes anomalies of ocean temperature and salinity to observed anomalies. 10 year hindcasts are produced for 10 start dates (1960, 1965,..., 2000, 2005). To determine the relative contributions to prediction skill from initial conditions and external forcing, the HiGEM decadal predictions are compared to uninitialised HiGEM transient experiments. The HiGEM decadal predictions have substantial skill for predictions of annual mean surface air temperature and 100 m upper ocean temperature. For lead times up to 10 years, anomaly correlations (ACC) over large areas of the North Atlantic Ocean, the Western Pacific Ocean and the Indian Ocean exceed values of 0.6. Initialisation of the HiGEM decadal predictions significantly increases skill over regions of the Atlantic Ocean,the Maritime Continent and regions of the subtropical North and South Pacific Ocean. In particular, HiGEM produces skillful predictions of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre for up to 4 years lead time (with ACC > 0.7), which are significantly larger than the uninitialised HiGEM transient experiments.

Phylogeography and evolutionary history of dengue virus type 3

In this study, we revisited the phylogeography of the three of major DENV-3 genotypes and estimated its rate of evolution, based on the analysis of the envelope (E) gene of 200 strains isolated from 31 different countries around the world over a time period of 50 years (1956-2006). Our phylogenetic analysis revealed a geographical subdivision of DENV-3 population in several country-specific clades. Migration patterns of the main DENV-3 genotypes showed that genotype I was mainly circumspect to the maritime portion of Southeast-Asia and South Pacific, genotype 11 stayed within continental areas in South-East Asia, while genotype III spread across Asia, East Africa and into the Americas. No evidence for rampant co-circulation of distinct genotypes in a single locality was found, suggesting that some factors, other than geographic proximity, may limit the continual dispersion and reintroduction of new DENV-3 variants. Estimates of the evolutionary rate revealed no significant differences among major DENV-3 genotypes. The mean evolutionary rate of DENV-3 in areas with long-term endemic transmissions (i.e., Indonesia and Thailand) was similar to that observed in the Americas, which have been experiencing a more recent dengue spread. We estimated the origin of DENV-3 virus around 1890, and the emergence of current diversity of main DENV-3 genotypes between the middle 1960s and the middle 1970s, coinciding with human population growth, urbanization, and massive human movement, and with the description of the first cases of DENV-3 hemorrhagic fever in Asia. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An exploratory study on how to improve the economy of American Samoa

Deep in the South Pacific region about 2,300 miles southwest of the Hawaiian islands1 lies a United States territory that many Americans have never heard of nor known anything about. However, some famous Americans such as Troy Polamalu of the Pittsburgh Steelers, semi retired professional wrestler Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson, and Hawaii Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard have genealogical roots there. More importantly, many of the Territory’s sons and daughters have served and lost their lives for the United States flag and the cause of freedom around the world. This place is called American Samoa, a collection of seven islands that if glued together would have a total landmass of approximately 76 square miles, just a tad bigger than the capital city of the United States. According to the United States Census Bureau, there were 55,519 residents of American Samoa in 2010.1 The majority of them are ethnic Samoans, a Polynesian sect that traces its history back to early migrants from Southeast Asia who settled the islands around 1500 B.C.2 3 The climate is warm all year long and the forests along the mountains are ripe with vegetation. The main island is Tutuila with its beautiful and coveted landlocked harbor that was used as a coaling station by the United States naval ships during World War II. In fact, it was the Pago Pago Harbor that diminished the impact of the 2009 Tsunami that devastated the Samoan islands by channeling the waters of the Pacific Ocean towards the end of the harbor instead of flooding many other villages surrounding the Pago Pago Bay area. Lives and property were destroyed near the end of the Harbor but it could have been worse for the entire Bay area. Locally grown foods include coconut, taro, banana, guava, sugar cane, papaya, yam, pineapple, and breadfruit. It is completely surrounded by the Pacific Ocean from which the locals obtain a variety of seafood. There is a popular saying in Samoa that goes, “In Samoa, it is impossible to starve 1 American Samoa Department of Commerce, 2012 Statistical Yearbook, http://www.doc.as/wpcontent/uploads/2011/06/2012-Statistical-Yearbook-1.pdf 2 U.S. Census Bureau News, U.S. Census Bureau Releases 2010 Census Population Counts for American Samoa, http://www.census.gov/2010census/news/releases/operations/cb11-cn177.html (Aug. 24, 2011). 3 3 J. Robert Shaffer, American Samoa: 100 Years Under the United States Flag (Honolulu, Hawaii: Island Heritage Publishing, 2000), 34. 4 because people live off of the land’s and the ocean’s abundant resources.” To the west of American Samoa lies a larger group of four islands that make up the Sovereign State of Samoa, which became independent from New Zealand in 1962. Samoa and American Samoa share the same language, culture, and religion but are divided by government and political systems. The focus of this study will be on American Samoa, which became a United States territory in 1900 when the principal chiefs of Tutuila (the largest island in American Samoa) ceded the islands to the United States.

A technique for the capture of free-ranging marsh deer (blastocerus dichotomus)

The marsh deer (Blastocerus dichotomus) is an endangered species froth the marshlands of central South America. Its population has declined in several regions due to the loss of available habitat caused by human activities, especially the construction of hydroelectric darns. The capture of individual deer is critical for research programs and population management. This report describes a novel live-capture technique, which uses a helicopter to drive the animals into a terrain that restricts their movement such as thick vegetation or deep water (60-120 cm in depth). Following confinement, animals are manually restrained. The short pursuit time (median = 2 thin), low mortality rate (0.82-3.28%), and the absence of injury to both the capture team and animals suggest that this method is appropriate for the safe capture of this species. Body temperature correlated with the pursuit time (R-2 = 0.15) but was not significantly altered with pursuit times <3 min.

Seleção de progênies de meios-irmãos do composto Isanão VF-1 de milho na safra e safrinha

O aumento significativo da produção de milho na segunda safra no Brasil, principalmente no centro-sul do país, têm estimulado os programas de melhoramento da cultura a selecionar genótipos que sejam adaptáveis às condições climáticas das diferentes épocas de semeadura. Nesse sentido, o objetivo do presente trabalho foi quantificar a interação progênies x épocas de semeadura e verificar seus reflexos no progresso genético com o uso de índice de seleção multivariado para seleção de progênies do Composto Isanão VF-1 de milho. As semeaduras foram realizadas na segunda safra em 2004 e na primeira safra do ano agrícola 2004/05. Foram utilizadas 71 progênies de meios irmãos avaliadas em blocos ao acaso, com três repetições. Os caracteres avaliados foram: altura de plantas, altura de espigas, tombamento, prolificidade e rendimento de grãos. Realizaram-se a decomposição da interação progênies x épocas e foram estimados os ganhos pelo índice de seleção descrito por Mulamba e Mock. Houve predomínio da interação do tipo simples para maioria dos caracteres, exceto para prolificidade, que revelou 86% de interação do tipo complexa. Pelo índice de Mulamba e Mock, os ganhos proporcionais mais adequados para o conjunto de caracteres avaliados foi obtido pelos pesos econômicos atribuídos por tentativas. Os ganhos preditos foram de 1,41, 0,86, -13,03, 9,54 e 16,12% para altura de planta, altura de espiga, tombamento, prolificidade e rendimento de grãos, respectivamente.

Eventos adversos: análise de um instrumento de notificação utilizado no gerenciamento de enfermagem

A direção de enfermagem de um hospital universitário terciário da região Centro-Sul do Estado de São Paulo, visando a segurança do paciente e o estabelecimento de meio de comunicação entre equipe e direção, implementou em janeiro de 2004 o Boletim de Notificação de Eventos Adversos. O objetivo deste estudo foi analisar a utilização deste instrumento de comunicação e identificar: frequência, tipo, natureza e período dos incidentes/eventos adversos. Realizou-se análise descritiva dos dados de 826 boletins elaborados no período de janeiro/2004 a junho/2006. Verificou-se adesão à utilização do instrumento. Predominaram notificações de ocorrências assistenciais, embora notificações administrativas tenham apresentado número crescente de registros. Eventos adversos mais frequentes relacionaram-se à medicação, quedas, cateteres, sondas/drenos e integridade da pele. A praticidade do instrumento viabilizou sua utilização também por auxiliares e técnicos de enfermagem. A análise sistematizada e acompanhamento dos eventos adversos associados aos recursos de comunicação mostraram-se fundamentais para a segurança do paciente.

Vernalização e corte do terço apical dos bulbos na produção e qualidade de sementes de cebola

The onion (Allium cepa L.) belongs to the family Alliaceae, and the second vegetables in economic importance. It horticultural culture of high relevance, in central-south and in the far south, is highlighting the states of São Paulo, Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina and Parana. The bulbificacion only begins when the combination of the determinants of bulbificacion (photoperiod and temperature) of each cultivar is reached. It Can be grown in tropical regions with the use of vernalization of the bulbs. The objective of this study is to identify the efficiency in the production of seed, onion depending on the cut or not the bulb before the period of vernalization. The analysis of the variables consisted: humidity; number of seeds; mass of seeds for umbel; umbels number; number of seeds for umbel; total number of flowers and of fecundated flowers; number of seeds for capsule; total mass of seeds; emergency percentage; vigor percentage; index of emergency speed and mass of 100 seeds humidity; number of seeds; mass of seeds for umbel; umbels number; number of seeds for umbel; total number of flowers and of fecundated flowers; number of seeds for capsule; total mass of seeds; emergency percentage; vigor percentage; index of emergency speed and mass of 100 seeds, using the cultivars Baia Periforme and Texas Grano. The experimental design was randomized blocks with four replicates, there was 80 plants for replicate, each parcel was conduced with 20 plants distributed in 4 lines of 5 plants with spacing of 20cm between plants and lines which was avaliated the 6 central plants. The seeds production not variated between cultivars Texas Grano e Baia Periforme. The cultivar Texas Grano showed seeds with more physiological quality. The cut or not cut of the bulbs not changed the physiological quality of the seeds. But utilization of whole bulbs resulted more yield of seeds with more flowers number and fertilized flower in Baia Periforme, more value of the total mass of seeds, number of seeds by plant and number and mass of seed by umbel in two cultivars.

Paisagem natural paleógena da bacia sedimentar de São Paulo no município de guarulhos, estado de São Paulo

Paleogene sediments of this region represent a significant source of water for urban, industrial and agricultural activities. This basin is part of the Southeastern Brazilian Continental Rift, which occupies a large portion of this geographical area. This study aims to present the evolution of the natural Paleogene landscape, through an analysis of its stratigraphic intcrops and underground portions based on the concept of facies and facies associations. A total of nine clastic and separate lithofacies were recognized and grouped into two main facies associations. These data suggest the existence of two depositional interdigitated systems: fluvial braided fans, which were predominant in parts of the northern and central area, and another composed of lacustrine sediments found in its central-south region. The paleogeography herein outlined will help considerably in the detection of new areas for mineral and water resources prospection, as well as in urban planning projects of this region.

Herpetofauna, municipality of Porto Murtinho, Chaco region, state of Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil

Among the physiographic regions included in the central South American diagonal of open formations, the Chaco, with some endemic species, represents the southernmost dry area. In Brazil, the Chaco is found in southwestern corner of Mato Grosso do Sul state, mostly in the municipality of Porto Murtinho along the Paraguay and Apa rivers. From February 2008 to December 2009, we carried out an inventory of amphibians and reptiles in Porto Murtinho, using pitfall traps, time-limited searches, and occasional encounters. A total of 34 amphibian and 39 reptile species were registered. Although some typical Chacoan species were found, most of the species are open area dwellers that also occur in other open biomes, such as the Cerrado and Caatinga. © 2010 Check List and Authors.

Avaliação da capacidade de uso da terra da bacia do córrego do cavalheiro - Analândia, SP

Environmental factors are important in agriculture and need to be considered for getting good degree of development and reasonable efficiency, by reducing their operating costs. To this end, land use shall be appropriated to the conditions offered by the physical elements of the landscape. By facing such questions, this paper aims is to present of mapping the ability of land use of the hydrographic basins Cavalheiro Stream basin (in the city of Analândia - São Paulo State - Brazil) which presents serious erosion problems. Besides it aims to assess if the current land use in this area is consistent with the identified land use ability. For this we have made a cartographic document that spatializes the various classes of usability and its main restrictions. The correlative analysis between that document and land use data showed that Cavalheiro Stream's current use is predominantly inappropriate with the usability of land, which was identified from the physical attributes of the studied area, except for a few sites that are used for forestry and pasture placed in Western, Eastern and Central-South.

Estudos limnológicos de balneabilidade no Parque Natural Municipal Cachoeira da Marta (Botucatu, SP, Brasil): relação com possíveis fontes poluidoras

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Avaliação dos impactos provocados pela descarga de efluente tratado na microbacia do Cintra - Botucatu SP

Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Energia na Agricultura) - FCA

A expansão da agroindústria sucroalcooleira e a questão do desenvolvimento da microrregião de Dracena-SP

Pós-graduação em Geografia - FCT