The role of upper-level dynamics and surface processes for the Pakistan flood of July 2010

In July and August 2010 floods of unprecedented impact afflicted Pakistan. The floods resulted from a series of intense multi-day precipitation events in July and early August. At the same time a series of blocking anticyclones dominated the upper-level flow over western Russia and breaking waves i.e. equatorward extrusions of stratospheric high potential vorticity (PV) air formed along the downstream flank of the blocks. Previous studies suggested that these extratropical upper-level breaking waves were crucial for instigating the precipitation events in Pakistan. Here a detailed analysis is provided of the extratropical forcing of the precipitation. Piecewise PV inversion is used to quantify the extratropical upper-level forcing associated with the wave breaking and trajectories are calculated to study the pathways and source regions of the moisture that precipitated over Pakistan. Limited-area model simulations are carried out to complement the Lagrangian analysis. The precipitation events over Pakistan resulted from a combination of favourable boundary conditions with strong extratropical and monsoonal forcing factors. Above-normal sea-surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean led to an elevated lower-tropospheric moisture content. Surface monsoonal depressions ensured the transport of moist air from the ocean towards northeastern Pakistan. Along this pathway the air parcel humidity increased substantially (60–90% of precipitated moisture) via evapotranspiration from the land surface. Extratropical breaking waves influenced the surface wind field substantially by enhancing the wind component directed towards the mountains which reinforced the precipitation.

Efficacy of Grazing Stockpiled Perennial Forages for Winter Maintenance of Beef Cows

In a three year study, wintering systems utilizing the grazing of stockpiled perennial hay crop forages or corn crop residues were compared to maintaining cows in a drylot. In the summer of 1992, two cuttings of hay were harvested (June 22 and August 2) from three 10-acre fields containing “Johnstone” endophyte-free tall fescue and “Spreador II” alfalfa, and one cutting of hay was harvested from three 10- acre fields of smooth brome grass. “Arlington” red clover was frost-seeded into the smooth bromegrass fields in 1993 and into tall fescue-alfalfa and smooth bromegrass fields into 1994. Two cuttings of hay were harvested from all fields in subsequent years, and three-year average hay yields for tall fescue-alfalfa and smooth bromegrass-red clover were 4,336 and 3,481 pounds per acre, respectively. Regrowth of the forage following the August hay harvest of each year was accumulated for winter grazing. Following a killing frost in each year, two fields of each stockpiled forage were stocked with cows in midgestation at two acres per cow. Two 10-acre fields of corn crop residues were also stocked at two acres per cow, following the grain harvest. Mean dry matter forage yields at the initiation of grazing were 1,853, 2,173 and 5,797 pounds per acre for fields containing tall fescue-alfalfa, smooth bromegrass-red clover, and cornstalks, respectively. A drylot was stocked with 18 cows in 1992 and 1993 and 10 cows in 1994. All cows were fed hay as necessary to maintain a body condition score of five. During grazing, mean losses of organic matter were -6.4, -7.6, and -10.7 pounds per acre per cow from tall fescue-alfalfa, smooth bromegrass-red clover, and cornstalk fields. Average organic matter loss rates from stockpiled forages due to weathering alone were equal to only 30% of the weathering losses of the corn crop residues. In vitro digestibility of both stockpiled forages and cornstalks decreased at equal rates during grazing each year, with respective annual loss rates of .14, .08, and .06% per day. Cows grazing corn crop residues required an average of 1,321 pounds per cow less hay than cows maintained in the drylot to maintain equivalent body condition during the grazing season. Cows grazing tall fescue-alfalfa or smooth bromegrass-red clover had body weight gains and condition score changes equal to cows maintained in a drylot but required 64% and 62% less harvested hay than cows in the drylot during the grazing season. Over the entire stored forage cows grazing tall fescue-alfalfa and smooth bromegrass-red clover required an average of 2,390 and 2,337 pounds per cow less than those maintained in the drylot. Because less hay was needed to maintain cows grazing stockpiled forages, average annual excesses of 5,629 and 3,868 pounds of hay dry matter per cow remained in the stockpiled tall fescue-alfalfa and smooth bromegrass-red clover systems.

Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of traditional and new partner notification technologies for curable sexually transmitted infections: observational study, systematic reviews and mathematical modelling

BACKGROUND Partner notification is essential to the comprehensive case management of sexually transmitted infections. Systematic reviews and mathematical modelling can be used to synthesise information about the effects of new interventions to enhance the outcomes of partner notification. OBJECTIVE To study the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of traditional and new partner notification technologies for curable sexually transmitted infections (STIs). DESIGN Secondary data analysis of clinical audit data; systematic reviews of randomised controlled trials (MEDLINE, EMBASE and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials) published from 1 January 1966 to 31 August 2012 and of studies of health-related quality of life (HRQL) [MEDLINE, EMBASE, ISI Web of Knowledge, NHS Economic Evaluation Database (NHS EED), Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects (DARE) and Health Technology Assessment (HTA)] published from 1 January 1980 to 31 December 2011; static models of clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness; and dynamic modelling studies to improve parameter estimation and examine effectiveness. SETTING General population and genitourinary medicine clinic attenders. PARTICIPANTS Heterosexual women and men. INTERVENTIONS Traditional partner notification by patient or provider referral, and new partner notification by expedited partner therapy (EPT) or its UK equivalent, accelerated partner therapy (APT). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Population prevalence; index case reinfection; and partners treated per index case. RESULTS Enhanced partner therapy reduced reinfection in index cases with curable STIs more than simple patient referral [risk ratio (RR) 0.71; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.56 to 0.89]. There are no randomised trials of APT. The median number of partners treated for chlamydia per index case in UK clinics was 0.60. The number of partners needed to treat to interrupt transmission of chlamydia was lower for casual than for regular partners. In dynamic model simulations, > 10% of partners are chlamydia positive with look-back periods of up to 18 months. In the presence of a chlamydia screening programme that reduces population prevalence, treatment of current partners achieves most of the additional reduction in prevalence attributable to partner notification. Dynamic model simulations show that cotesting and treatment for chlamydia and gonorrhoea reduce the prevalence of both STIs. APT has a limited additional effect on prevalence but reduces the rate of index case reinfection. Published quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) weights were of insufficient quality to be used in a cost-effectiveness study of partner notification in this project. Using an intermediate outcome of cost per infection diagnosed, doubling the efficacy of partner notification from 0.4 to 0.8 partners treated per index case was more cost-effective than increasing chlamydia screening coverage. CONCLUSIONS There is evidence to support the improved clinical effectiveness of EPT in reducing index case reinfection. In a general heterosexual population, partner notification identifies new infected cases but the impact on chlamydia prevalence is limited. Partner notification to notify casual partners might have a greater impact than for regular partners in genitourinary clinic populations. Recommendations for future research are (1) to conduct randomised controlled trials using biological outcomes of the effectiveness of APT and of methods to increase testing for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and STIs after APT; (2) collection of HRQL data should be a priority to determine QALYs associated with the sequelae of curable STIs; and (3) standardised parameter sets for curable STIs should be developed for mathematical models of STI transmission that are used for policy-making. FUNDING The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Stricture of the Afferent Isoperistaltic Tubular Segment: A Late and Rare Cause of Bilateral Dilation of the Upper Urinary Tract After Ileal Bladder Substitution

OBJECTIVE To evaluate the etiology and treatment of bilateral hydronephrosis not responding to bladder substitute drainage after ileal bladder substitution using an afferent isoperistaltic tubular segment. MATERIALS AND METHODS A retrospective analysis was performed of a consecutive series of 739 patients who had undergone bladder substitution from April 1985 to August 2012. RESULTS Of the 739 ileal bladder substitute patients, 10 (1.4%) developed bilateral hydronephrosis unresponsive to complete bladder substitute drainage. The etiology was stenosis of the afferent isoperistaltic tubular segment. The median interval to presentation was 131 months (range 45-192). The incidence of afferent tubular segment stenosis was significantly higher in the 61 ileal bladder substitute patients with recurrent urinary tract infection (9 [15%]) than in the 678 without recurrent urinary tract infection (1 [0.15%]; P <.001). Urine cultures revealed mixed infections (34%), Escherichia coli (18%), Staphylococcus aureus (13%), enterococci (11%), Candida (8%), Klebsiella (8%), and others (8%). Seven patients underwent 10 endourologic interventions, only 1 of which was successful (10%). After failed endourologic treatment, 7 open surgical revisions with resection of the stricture were performed, with all 7 (100%) successful. CONCLUSION Bilateral dilation of the upper urinary tract after ileal orthotopic bladder substitution unresponsive to complete bladder substitute drainage is likely to be caused by stenosis of the afferent isoperistaltic tubular segment. The stenosis occurs almost exclusively in patients with long-lasting, recurrent urinary tract infection and can develop many years after the ileal bladder substitution. Minimally invasive endourologic treatment is usually unsuccessful; however, open surgical revision offers excellent results.

THE DESIGN AND DEVELOPMENT OF A SURVEY INSTRUMENT FOR THE ASSESSMENT OF OCCUPATIONAL STRESS

Using stress and coping as a unifying theoretical concept, a series of five models was developed in order to synthesize the survey questions and to classify information. These models identified the question, listed the research study, described measurements, listed workplace data, and listed industry and national reference data.^ A set of 38 instrument questions was developed within the five coping correlate categories. In addition, a set of 22 stress symptoms was also developed. The study was conducted within two groups, police and professors, on a large university campus. The groups were selected because their occupations were diverse, but they were a part of the same macroenvironment. The premise was that police officers would be more highly stressed than professors.^ Of a total study group of 80, there were 37 respondents. The difference in the mean stress responses was observable between the two groups. Not only were the responses similar within each group, but the stress level of response was also similar within each group. While the response to the survey instrument was good, only 3 respondents answered the stress symptom survey properly. It was determined that none of the 37 respondents believed that they were ill. This perception of being well was also evidenced by the grand mean of the stress scores of 2.76 (3.0 = moderate stress). This also caused fewer independent variables to be entered in the multiple regression model.^ The survey instrument was carefully designed to be universal. Universality is the ability to transcend occupational or regional definitions as applied to stress. It is the ability to measure responses within broad categories such as physiological, emotional, behavioral, social, and cognitive functions without losing the ability to measure the detail within the individual questions, or the relationships between questions and categories.^ Replication is much easier to achieve with standardized categories, questions, and measurement procedures such as those developed for the universal survey instrument. Because the survey instrument is universal it can be used as an analytical device, an assessment device, a basic tool for planning and a follow-up instrument to measure individual response to planned reductions in occupational stress. (Abstract shortened with permission of author.) ^

Evidence of trepanation in Late Iron Age Switzerland (420–240BC)

In Europe the procedure of trepanation is known since the Neolithic and is still practiced today in East African native tribes. Trepanation is the oldest known surgical intervention and is defined as the intentional penetration of the cranial vault with removal of piece of a skull bone. Therefore, it is believed that neurosurgery is one of the world’s oldest professions. In this study two skulls with lesions from the Late Iron Age cemetery of Münsingen (420–240 BC), Switzerland, are presented. Aim of the study was to analyse the lesions and to assess whether they were caused by surgical interventions. Sex and age of the individuals were determined by current morphologic-anthropological methods. Radiological examinations were performed with a multislice CT-scanner. Different trepanation methods and signs of healing are discussed. In Switzerland about 33 skulls with possible trepanations dating from Neolithic to medieval times are known and are presented in a short review. Studies of ancient surgical interventions provide important information of pre- and early historic populations. Trepanations of the skull such as the presented cases prove a profound understanding of the human body in ancient times.