Estimating Intra-Party Preferences: Comparing Speeches to Votes

Well-established methods exist for measuring party positions, but reliable means for estimating intra-party preferences remain underdeveloped. While most efforts focus on estimating the ideal points of individual legislators based on inductive scaling of roll call votes, this data suffers from two problems: selection bias due to unrecorded votes and strong party discipline, which tends to make voting a strategic rather than a sincere indication of preferences. By contrast, legislative speeches are relatively unconstrained, as party leaders are less likely to punish MPs for speaking freely as long as they vote with the party line. Yet, the differences between roll call estimations and text scalings remain essentially unexplored, despite the growing application of statistical analysis of textual data to measure policy preferences. Our paper addresses this lacuna by exploiting a rich feature of the Swiss legislature: on most bills, legislators both vote and speak many times. Using this data, we compare text-based scaling of ideal points to vote-based scaling from a crucial piece of energy legislation. Our findings confirm that text scalings reveal larger intra-party differences than roll calls. Using regression models, we further explain the differences between roll call and text scalings by attributing differences to constituency-level preferences for energy policy.

Hamlet's Mobility: The Reception of Shakespeare's Tragedy in US-American and Canadian Narrative Fiction

This essay presents a comprehensive study of how Hamlet figures in North American fiction. Gabriele Rippl takes her cue from Stephen Greenblatt’s notion of Shakespeare’s ‘theatrical mobility’ (Greenblatt, Cultural Mobility. Cambridge University Press, 2010). This initial mobility, based on the playwright’s own borrowings, appears to facilitate, or even instigate further migrations. Rippl proceeds to give an overview of adaptations of Shakespeare’s Hamlet in the USA and Canada, thus providing an insight into the historical and cultural uses to which the play has been put by authors such as John Updike or Margaret Atwood. Phenomena such as the ‘republicanization’ of Shakespeare (James Fenimore Cooper), or his appropriation for a feminist counter-discourse in Canada circumscribe a space for the negotiation of cultural and political identities.

Similar outcome of upfront-unrelated and matched sibling stem cell transplantation in idiopathic paediatric aplastic anaemia. A study on behalf of the UK Paediatric BMT Working Party, Paediatric Diseases Working Party and Severe Aplastic Anaemia Working Party of EBMT

Abstract We explored the feasibility of unrelated donor haematopoietic stem cell transplant (HSCT) upfront without prior immunosuppressive therapy (IST) in paediatric idiopathic severe aplastic anaemia (SAA). This cohort was then compared to matched historical controls who had undergone first-line therapy with a matched sibling/family donor (MSD) HSCT (n = 87) or IST with horse antithymocyte globulin and ciclosporin (n = 58) or second-line therapy with unrelated donor HSCT post-failed IST (n = 24). The 2-year overall survival in the upfront cohort was 96 ± 4% compared to 91 ± 3% in the MSD controls (P = 0·30) and 94 ± 3% in the IST controls (P = 0·68) and 74 ± 9% in the unrelated donor HSCT post-IST failure controls (P = 0·02).The 2-year event-free survival in the upfront cohort was 92 ± 5% compared to 87 ± 4% in MSD controls (P = 0·37), 40 ± 7% in IST controls (P = 0·0001) and 74 ± 9% in the unrelated donor HSCT post-IST failure controls (n = 24) (P = 0·02). Outcomes for upfront-unrelated donor HSCT in paediatric idiopathic SAA were similar to MSD HSCT and superior to IST and unrelated donor HSCT post-IST failure. Front-line therapy with matched unrelated donor HSCT is a novel treatment approach and could be considered as first-line therapy in selected paediatric patients who lack a MSD. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

On Voters' Attitudes Towards Unemployment Insurance Subsidies across Regions: A Canadian Simulation

The Canadian unemployment insurance program is designed to reflect the varying risk of joblessness across regions. Regions that are considered low-risk areas subsidize higher risk ones. A region's risk is typically proxied by its relative unemployment rate. We use a dynamic, heterogeneous-agent model calibrated to Canada to analyze voters preferences between a uniformly generous unemployment insurance and the current system with asymmetric generosity. We find that Canada's unusual unemployment insurance system is surprisingly close to what voters would choose in spite of the possibilities of moral hazard and self-insurance through asset build-up.

Dynamic Stock Market Interactions between the Canadian, Mexican, and the United States Markets: The NAFTA Experience

This paper explores the dynamic linkages that portray different facets of the joint probability distribution of stock market returns in NAFTA (i.e., Canada, Mexico, and the US). Our examination of interactions of the NAFTA stock markets considers three issues. First, we examine the long-run relationship between the three markets, using cointegration techniques. Second, we evaluate the dynamic relationships between the three markets, using impulse-response analysis. Finally, we explore the volatility transmission process between the three markets, using a variety of multivariate GARCH models. Our results also exhibit significant volatility transmission between the second moments of the NAFTA stock markets, albeit not homogenous. The magnitude and trend of the conditional correlations indicate that in the last few years, the Mexican stock market exhibited a tendency toward increased integration with the US market. Finally, we do note that evidence exists that the Peso and Asian financial crises as well as the stock-market crash in the US affect the return and volatility time-series relationships.

Das geheime Bataillon : eine Untersuchung über das kommunistische Verhalten zur Labour-Party

von Harold J. Laski

Na 1 Nachlass Max Horkheimer, 652 - Vorlesungen: "National Socialism", "Autoritarian doctrines and modern European institutions", "Eclipse of Reason" (p. IX 35a.1-2-IX 36.1-5b)

"National Socialism": 1. Ankündigung einer Vorlesungsreihe November/Dezember 1941 von: Herbert Marcuse, A.R.L. Gurland, Franz Neumann, Otto Kirchheimer, Frederick Pollock. a) als Typoskript verfielfältigt, 1 Blatt, b) Typoskript, 1 Blatt; 2. Antwortbrief auf Einladungen zur Vorlesungsreihe, von Neilson, William A.; Packelis, Alexander H.; Michael, Jerome; McClung Lee, Alfred; Youtz, R.P.; Ginsburg, Isidor; Ganey, G.; Nunhauer, Arthur. 8 Blätter; "Autoritarian doctrines and modern European institutions" (1924): 1. Vorlesungs-Ankündigung Typoskript, 2 Blatt; 2. Ankündigungen der Vorlesungen von Neumann, Franz L.: "Stratification and Dominance in Germany"; "Bureaucracy as a Social and Political Institution", Typoskript, 2 Blatt; 3. Evans, Austin P.: 1 Brief (Abschrift) an Frederick Pollock, New York, 26.2.1924; "Eclipse of Reason", Fünf Vorlesungen 1943/44:; 1. I. Lecture. a) Typoskript mit eigenhändigen Korrekturen, 38 Blatt b) Typoskript, 29 Blatt c) Typoskript mit eigenhändigen und handschriftlichen Korrekturen, 31 Blatt d) Teilstück, Typoskript mit eigenhändigen Korrekturen, 2 Blatt e) Entwürfe, Typoskript mit eigenhändigen Korrekturen, 6 Blatt; 2. II. Lecture. a) Typoskript mit eigenhändigen Korrekturen, 27 Blatt, b) Typoskript mit handschriftlichen Korrekturen, 37 Blatt; 3. III. Lecture. Typoskript mit eigenhändigen Korrekturen, 27 Blatt; 4. IV. Lecture. Typoskript mit eigenhändigen Korrekturen, 23 Blatt; 5. V. Lecture. a) Typoskript mit eigenhändigen Korrekturen, 25 Blatt, b) Teilstücke, Typoskript mit eigenhändigen und handschriftlichen Korrekturen, 3 Blatt;

Na 1 Nachlass Max Horkheimer, 653 - Vorlesungen: "Eclipse of Reason"; "Society and Reason" (p. IX 36.6-12)

6. Vorlesungen 1. - 5. mit dem Titel "Society and Reason". a) Typoskript mit handschriftlichen Randbemerkungen von Theodor W. Adorno, 139 Blatt b) Typoskript, 139 Blatt; 7. Teilstück, Typoskript mit eigenhändigen Korrekturen, 1 Blatt; 8. Eigenhändige Notizen, 4 Blatt; 9. Stichworte zu den Vorlesungen I-III. Typoskript mit eigenhändigen Ergänzungen, 2 Blatt a) Einladungskarte zur Vorlesungsreihe "Society and Reason". Als Typoskript vervielfältigt, 1 Blatt b) Gliederung. Typoskript, 1 Blatt; 10. "Über Probleme des wissenschaftlichen Stils". Reaktion auf ein Schriftstück (aus einem Brief an Friedrich Pollock). a) Typoskript, datiert: 28.11.1943, 3 Blatt b) Max Horkheimer: 1 Brief an Friedrich Pollock, ohne Ort, 28.11.1943, 5 Blatt; 11. Columbia University, New York: 1 Brief (Abschrift) an Max Horkheimer, New York, 5.3.1943, und Stichworte zu den Vorlesungen, 2 Blatt; 12. Zeitungsausschnitt, 1 Blatt.;

The epidemiology of Hepatitis B and Hepatitis C virus infection among college students who are not US/Canadian born in Houston

Introduction. A vast majority of studies conducted in both developed and developing nations have focused on the epidemiology of HBV (Hepatitis B virus) and HCV (Hepatitis C virus) in high-risk populations; low-risk populations have been neglected. Recently Hwang et al conducted a unique large cross-sectional study in American university students that focused on cosmetic procedures and drug use for acquiring these infections among a low-risk young adult population In Houston. ^ Methods. This study is a secondary data analysis of the cross-sectional study conducted by Hwang et al. Data for this anonymous study were collected from 7,960 college students, among whom were the 2,561 non US/Canadian born students included in this study. All students completed a self-administered questionnaire and provided a blood sample. The epidemiology of HBV/HCV and risk factors for acquiring HBV/HCV infection was studied by comparing those with HBV/HCV infection versus those without. Both univariate and multivariate logistic regression was used to analyze the data. ^ Results. Overall prevalence of HBV and HCV infections were 22% and 0.8% respectively. By multivariable analysis, the factors that were independently associated with increased prevalence of HBV infection were increasing age per year (OR=1.06, 95% C.I=1.04-1.08), Black or Asian race (OR=6.21, 95% C.I=3.14-12.27), history of household contact with hepatitis (OR=1.87, 95% C.I=1.15-3.05), and having sexual partner with hepatitis (OR=5.20, 95% C.I=1.5-18.00). For HCV these factors included increasing age per year (OR= 1.08, 95% C.I=1.03-1.14), history of blood transfusion prior to 1991 (OR=25.45, 95% C.I=7.58-85.40), and Injection drug use. (OR=78.15, 95% C.I=12.19-500.85). Cosmetic procedures like tattooing were not significant risk factors for either HBV or HCV infection. ^ Conclusions. In a low-risk adult foreign born population, cosmetic procedures are not significant risk factors for HBV or HCV infection. The prevention strategies of these infections in this population should focus on safe sexual practices/abstinence and HBV vaccination should be provided to adolescents and sexually active adults. ^

Journeying Beyond the Balcony to the Block Party and Up to 50,000 Feet: Disparities in Children’s Health and Healthcare

Invited Commentary on “Observations from the Balcony: Directions for Pediatric Health Disparities Research and Policy".

Current measurements below the ice in Eclipse Sound

Velocity and direction of the current under the sea ice of the EcIipse Sound between Baffin lsland and Bylot Island were measured with specially developed devices and registered on a recorder. During the period of registration (May-June 1972) an easterly current of 5-7 cm/s superimposed by tidal and local influences (max. 12 cm/s) was found. In addition , measurements of friction between steelcone surfaces und corresponding conical ice bores are reported on. The plotted results show the influence of ice-temperature, surface quality and in some cases the influence of time.

Occurrence and geochemistry of lake-bottom manganiferous deposits in Canadian lakes

It is the purpose of this paper to record information concerning the distribution and occurrence of manganiferous concretions and other manganese oxide deposits that develop on certain lake bottoms. During the summer of 1935 several days were devoted to a study of this type of lake bottom deposit in various parts of Nova Scotia. Lake studies in Ontario have extended the known distribution from lakes on or near the Atlantic coast to lakes in southern Ontario. During the writer's first work on lacustrine manganiferous deposits the concretions of manganese oxide which were found were almost entirely limited to the relatively shallow parts of the lakes examined. Other lakes are now known where the manganese oxide appears to occur only in the maximum depths.

Concentrations of natural and anthropogenic organohalogens in water and air samples in the Canadian Arctic during IPY (2007-2008)

Shipboard measurements of organohalogen compounds in air and surface seawater were conducted in the Canadian Arctic in 2007-2008. Study areas included the Labrador Sea, Hudson Bay, and the southern Beaufort Sea. High volume air samples were collected at deck level (6 m), while low volume samples were taken at 1 and 15 m above the water or ice surface. Water samples were taken within 7 m. Water concentration ranges (pg/L) were as follows: alpha-hexachlorocyclohexane (alpha-HCH) 465-1013, gamma-HCH 150-254, hexachlorobenzene (HCB) 4.0-6.4, 2,4-dibromoanisole (DBA) 8.5-38, and 2,4,6-tribromoanisole (TBA) 4.7-163. Air concentration ranges (pg/m**3) were as follows: alpha-HCH 7.5-48, gamma-HCH 2.1-7.7, HCB 48-71, DBA 4.8-25, and TBA 6.4-39. Fugacity gradients predicted net deposition of HCB in all areas, while exchange directions varied for the other chemicals by season and locations. Net evasion of alpha-HCH from Hudson Bay and the Beaufort Sea during open water conditions was shown by air concentrations that averaged 14% higher at 1 m than 15 m. No significant difference between the two heights was found over ice cover. The alpha-HCH in air over the Beaufort Sea was racemic in winter (mean enantiomer fraction, EF = 0.504 ± 0.008) and nonracemic in late spring-early summer (mean EF = 0.476 ± 0.010). This decrease in EF was accompanied by a rise in air concentrations due to volatilization of nonracemic alpha-HCH from surface water (EF = 0.457 ± 0.019). Fluxes of chemicals during the southern Beaufort Sea open water season (i.e., Leg 9) were estimated using the Whitman two-film model, where volatilization fluxes are positive and deposition fluxes are negative. The means ± SD (and ranges) of net fluxes (ng/m**2/d) were as follows: alpha-HCH 6.8 ± 3.2 (2.7-13), gamma-HCH 0.76 ± 0.40 (0.26-1.4), HCB -9.6 ± 2.7 (-6.1 to -15), DBA 1.2 ± 0.69 (0.04-2.0), and TBA 0.46 ± 1.1 ng/m**2/d (-1.6 to 2.0).