Conception rate of artificially inseminated Holstein cows affected by cloudy vaginal mucus, under intense heat conditions

The objective of this work was to obtain prevalence estimates of cloudy vaginal mucus in artificially inseminated Holstein cows raised under intense heat, in order to assess the effect of meteorological conditions on its occurrence during estrus and to determine its effect on conception rate. In a first study, an association was established between the occurrence of cloudy vaginal mucus during estrus and the conception rate of inseminated cows (18,620 services), raised under intense heat (mean annual temperature of 22°C), at highly technified farms, in the arid region of northern Mexico. In a second study, data from these large dairy operations were used to assess the effect of meteorological conditions throughout the year on the occurrence of cloudy vaginal mucus during artificial insemination (76,899 estruses). The overall rate of estruses with cloudy vaginal mucus was 21.4% (16,470/76,899; 95% confidence interval = 21.1-21.7%). The conception rate of cows with clean vaginal mucus was higher than that of cows with abnormal mucus (30.6 vs. 22%). Prevalence of estruses with cloudy vaginal mucus was strongly dependent on high ambient temperature and markedly higher in May and June. Acceptable conception rates in high milk-yielding Holstein cows can only be obtained with cows showing clear and translucid mucus at artificial insemination.

Plasmapolttoprosessin kehittäminen ja optimointi

Ydinvoimaloidenprimaarivesikierron puhdistukseen käytetään ioninvaihtohartsia. Käytönjälkeen ioninvaihtohartsi luokitellaan matalaja keskiaktiivisiin jätteisiin. Plasmakäsittelyllä käytetyn ioninvaihtohartsin tilavuutta voidaan pienentää sekä sen orgaaninen luonne poistaa. Plasmakäsittelyn tarkoituksena on hapettaa orgaaninen aines oksideiksi, jotka poistuvat prosessista savukaasuina. Epäorgaaninen aines, joka sisältää radioaktiivisen aineksen, on tarkoitus hapettaa oksideiksi ja sulfideiksi, jotka voidaan kerätä talteen tuhkana. Tässä diplomityössä käsitellään käytetyn ioninvaihtohartsin käsittelyyn suunnitellun plasmapolttoprosessin kehittämistä ja optimointia. Ioninvaihtohartsin plasmakäsittelyssä syntyvien reaktiotuotteiden selvittäminen suoritettiin tarkastelemalla ainetaseita sekä aihetta käsitteleviä tutkimuksia. Näiden perusteella parannettiin jäähdytystä, suunniteltiin jatkuvatoiminen syöttömenetelmä sekä laadittiin toimintaalueen reunaehdot laitteistolle. Koelaitteistossa 6,5 kW:n rfteho syötetään sovitinpiirin ja kuparisen induktiokelan kautta plasmaan. Plasmakaasuna on käytetty hapenja argonin seoskaasua. Plasmapolttoa on seurattu massaspektrometrilla, optisella emissiospektrometrilla, lämpösekä painemittareilla. Laskennan ja kokeiden pohjalta selvitettiin optimaalinen seossuhde plasmakaasulle, paineen ja tehon noston vaikutus hartsin polttonopeuteen sekä jatkuvatoimisen syöttömenetelmän edut panostoimiseen syöttöön. Rfgeneraattorin teho rajoitti jatkuvatoimisen polttonopeuden 130 g/h ja hetkellisen polttonopeuden 175 g/h. Radioaktiivisten aineiden pidätys oli 93,5 % cesiumin osalta. Tulosten perusteella 4 kg/h ioninvaihtohartsia polttavan laitteiston tehon lähteeksi tarvitaan 65 kW rfgeneraattori. Palamattoman hartsin ja tuhkan kulkeutuminen partikkelisuodattimille sekä reaktiotuotteena syntyvien rikinoksidien käsittely vaatii vielä jatkotutkimusta.

Estimation of glomerular filtration rate in hospitalized patients : are we overestimating renal function?

Estimer la filtration glomérulaire chez les personnes âgées, tout en tenant compte de la difficulté supplémentaire d'évaluer leur masse musculaire, est difficile et particulièrement important pour la prescription de médicaments. Le taux plasmatique de la creatinine dépend à la fois de la fraction d'élimination rénale et extra-rénale et de la masse musculaire. Actuellement, pour estimer là filtration glomérulaire différentes formules sont utilisées, qui se fondent principalement sur la valeur de la créatinine. Néanmoins, en raison de la fraction éliminée par les voies tubulaires et intestinales la clairance de la créatinine surestime généralement le taux de filtration glomérulaire (GFR). Le but de cette étude est de vérifier la fiabilité de certains marqueurs et algorithmes de la fonction rénale actuellement utilisés et d'évaluer l'avantage additionnel de prendre en considération la masse musculaire mesurée par la bio-impédance dans une population âgée (> 70 ans) et avec une fonction rénale chronique compromise basée sur MDRD eGFR (CKD stades lll-IV). Dans cette étude, nous comparons 5 équations développées pour estimer la fonction rénale et basées respectivement sur la créatinine sérique (Cockcroft et MDRD), la cystatine C (Larsson), la créatinine combinée à la bêta-trace protéine (White), et la créatinine ajustée à la masse musculaire obtenue par analyse de la bio-impédance (MacDonald). La bio-impédance est une méthode couramment utilisée pour estimer la composition corporelle basée sur l'étude des propriétés électriques passives et de la géométrie des tissus biologiques. Cela permet d'estimer les volumes relatifs des différents tissus ou des fluides dans le corps, comme par exemple l'eau corporelle totale, la masse musculaire (=masse maigre) et la masse grasse corporelle. Nous avons évalué, dans une population âgée d'un service interne, et en utilisant la clairance de l'inuline (single shot) comme le « gold standard », les algorithmes de Cockcroft (GFR CKC), MDRD, Larsson (cystatine C, GFR CYS), White (beta trace protein, GFR BTP) et Macdonald (GFR = ALM, la masse musculaire par bio-impédance. Les résultats ont montré que le GFR (mean ± SD) mesurée avec l'inuline et calculée avec les algorithmes étaient respectivement de : 34.9±20 ml/min pour l'inuline, 46.7±18.5 ml/min pour CKC, 47.2±23 ml/min pour CYS, 54.4±18.2ml/min pour BTP, 49±15.9 ml/min pour MDRD et 32.9±27.2ml/min pour ALM. Les courbes ROC comparant la sensibilité et la spécificité, l'aire sous la courbe (AUC) et l'intervalle de confiance 95% étaient respectivement de : CKC 0 68 (055-0 81) MDRD 0.76 (0.64-0.87), Cystatin C 0.82 (0.72-0.92), BTP 0.75 (0.63-0.87), ALM 0.65 (0.52-0.78). ' En conclusion, les algorithmes comparés dans cette étude surestiment la GFR dans la population agee et hospitalisée, avec des polymorbidités et une classe CKD lll-IV. L'utilisation de l'impédance bioelectrique pour réduire l'erreur de l'estimation du GFR basé sur la créatinine n'a fourni aucune contribution significative, au contraire, elle a montré de moins bons résultats en comparaison aux autres equations. En fait dans cette étude 75% des patients ont changé leur classification CKD avec MacDonald (créatinine et masse musculaire), contre 49% avec CYS (cystatine C), 56% avec MDRD,52% avec Cockcroft et 65% avec BTP. Les meilleurs résultats ont été obtenus avec Larsson (CYS C) et la formule de Cockcroft.

Relationships of basal metabolic rate, relative testis size and cycle length of spermatogenesis in shrews (Mammalia, Soricidae).

The aim of the present study was to determinate the cycle length of spermatogenesis in three species of shrew, Suncus murinus, Sorex coronatus and Sorex minutus, and to assess the relative influence of variation in basal metabolic rate (BMR) and mating system (level of sperm competition) on the observed rate of spermatogenesis, including data of shrew species studied before (Sorex araneus, Crocidura russula and Neomys fodiens). The dynamics of sperm production were determined by tracing 5-bromodeoxyuridine in the DNA of germ cells. As a continuous scaling of mating systems is not evident, the level of sperm competition was evaluated by the significantly correlated relative testis size (RTS). The cycle durations estimated by linear regression were 14.3 days (RTS 0.3%) in Suncus murinus, 9.0 days (RTS 0.5%) in Sorex coronatus and 8.5 days (RTS 2.8%) in Sorex minutus. In regression and multiple regression analyses including all six studied species of shrew, cycle length was significantly correlated with BMR (r2=0.73) and RTS (r2=0.77). Sperm competition as an ultimate factor obviously leads to a reduction in the time of spermatogenesis in order to increase sperm production. BMR may act in the same way, independently or as a proximate factor, revealed by the covariation, but other factors (related to testes size and thus to mating system) may also be involved.

Reexamination of the relationship of resting metabolic rate to fat-free mass and to the metabolically active components of fat-free mass in humans.

The ratio of resting metabolic rate (RMR) to fat-free mass (FFM) is often used to compare individuals of different body sizes. Because RMR has not been well described over the full range of FFM, a literature review was conducted among groups with a wide range of FFM. It included 31 data sets comprising a total of 1111 subjects: 118 infants and preschoolers, 323 adolescents, and 670 adults; FFM ranged from 2.8 to 106 kg. The relationship of RMR to FFM was found to be nonlinear and average slopes of the regression equations of the three groups differed significantly (P less than 0.0001). For only the youngest group did the intercept approach zero. The lower slopes of RMR on FFM, at higher measures of FFM, corresponded to relatively greater proportions of less metabolically active muscle mass and to lesser proportions of more metabolically active nonmuscle organ mass. Because the contribution of FFM to RMR is not constant, an arithmetic error is introduced when the ratio of RMR to FFM is used. Hence, alternative methods should be used to compare individuals with markedly different FFM.

Development of Rouble Exchange Rate in Russia

NORDIn julkaisu 45 käsittelee ruplan kehitystä. Vuonna 1998 rupla kärsi rajusta rahanarvon alenemisesta, minkä jälkiseuraksena investointi alkoi Venäjällä kasvaa. Uusi devalvoitu ruplan vaihtokurssi toi hintakilpailykykyä paikalliselle teollisuudelle. Tämän lisäksi Venäjän öljyn vientihintojen nousu ja maakaasujakelu ovat edesauttaneet taloudellista kasvua viime aikoina. Tämän noususuhdanteen vallitessa inflaatiopaine on pysynyt korkealla. Hinnannousut ovat olleet korkeampia kuinEU:ssa, Venäjän pääkauppakumppanilla. Kuitenkin, ruplan/euron vaihtokurssit ovat pysyneet nimellisesti melko vakaina tällä vuosikymmenellä. Tämä tarkoittaa, että todellisuudessa rupla vahvistuu euroa vastaan, mikä heikentää Venäjän kansainvälistä kilpailykykyä.

Numerical and ExperimentalModelling of Gas Flow and Heat Transfer in the Air Gap of An Electric Machine

This work deals with the cooling of high-speed electric machines, such as motors and generators, through an air gap. It consists of numerical and experimental modelling of gas flow and heat transfer in an annular channel. Velocity and temperature profiles are modelled in the air gap of a high-speed testmachine. Local and mean heat transfer coefficients and total friction coefficients are attained for a smooth rotor-stator combination at a large velocity range. The aim is to solve the heat transfer numerically and experimentally. The FINFLO software, developed at Helsinki University of Technology, has been used in the flow solution, and the commercial IGG and Field view programs for the grid generation and post processing. The annular channel is discretized as a sector mesh. Calculation is performed with constant mass flow rate on six rotational speeds. The effect of turbulence is calculated using three turbulence models. The friction coefficient and velocity factor are attained via total friction power. The first part of experimental section consists of finding the proper sensors and calibrating them in a straight pipe. After preliminary tests, a RdF-sensor is glued on the walls of stator and rotor surfaces. Telemetry is needed to be able to measure the heat transfer coefficients at the rotor. The mean heat transfer coefficients are measured in a test machine on four cooling air mass flow rates at a wide Couette Reynolds number range. The calculated values concerning the friction and heat transfer coefficients are compared with measured and semi-empirical data. Heat is transferred from the hotter stator and rotor surfaces to the coolerair flow in the air gap, not from the rotor to the stator via the air gap, althought the stator temperature is lower than the rotor temperature. The calculatedfriction coefficients fits well with the semi-empirical equations and precedingmeasurements. On constant mass flow rate the rotor heat transfer coefficient attains a saturation point at a higher rotational speed, while the heat transfer coefficient of the stator grows uniformly. The magnitudes of the heat transfer coefficients are almost constant with different turbulence models. The calibrationof sensors in a straight pipe is only an advisory step in the selection process. Telemetry is tested in the pipe conditions and compared to the same measurements with a plain sensor. The magnitudes of the measured data and the data from the semi-empirical equation are higher for the heat transfer coefficients than thenumerical data considered on the velocity range. Friction and heat transfer coefficients are presented in a large velocity range in the report. The goals are reached acceptably using numerical and experimental research. The next challenge is to achieve results for grooved stator-rotor combinations. The work contains also results for an air gap with a grooved stator with 36 slots. The velocity field by the numerical method does not match in every respect the estimated flow mode. The absence of secondary Taylor vortices is evident when using time averagednumerical simulation.

Towards desired crystalline product properties: In-situ monitoring of batch crystallization

The objective of industrial crystallization is to obtain a crystalline product which has the desired crystal size distribution, mean crystal size, crystal shape, purity, polymorphic and pseudopolymorphic form. Effective control of the product quality requires an understanding of the thermodynamics of the crystallizing system and the effects of operation parameters on the crystalline product properties. Therefore, obtaining reliable in-line information about crystal properties and supersaturation, which is the driving force of crystallization, would be very advantageous. Advanced techniques, such asRaman spectroscopy, attenuated total reflection Fourier transform infrared (ATR FTIR) spectroscopy, and in-line imaging techniques, offer great potential for obtaining reliable information during crystallization, and thus giving a better understanding of the fundamental mechanisms (nucleation and crystal growth) involved. In the present work, the relative stability of anhydrate and dihydrate carbamazepine in mixed solvents containing water and ethanol were investigated. The kinetics of the solvent mediated phase transformation of the anhydrate to hydrate in the mixed solvents was studied using an in-line Raman immersion probe. The effects of the operation parameters in terms of solvent composition, temperature and the use of certain additives on the phase transformation kineticswere explored. Comparison of the off-line measured solute concentration and the solid-phase composition measured by in-line Raman spectroscopy allowedthe identification of the fundamental processes during the phase transformation. The effects of thermodynamic and kinetic factors on the anhydrate/hydrate phase of carbamazepine crystals during cooling crystallization were also investigated. The effect of certain additives on the batch cooling crystallization of potassium dihydrogen phosphate (KDP) wasinvestigated. The crystal growth rate of a certain crystal face was determined from images taken with an in-line video microscope. An in-line image processing method was developed to characterize the size and shape of thecrystals. An ATR FTIR and a laser reflection particle size analyzer were used to study the effects of cooling modes and seeding parameters onthe final crystal size distribution of an organic compound C15. Based on the obtained results, an operation condition was proposed which gives improved product property in terms of increased mean crystal size and narrowersize distribution.

Differences in phasic development rate amongst wheat cultivars independent of responses to photoperiod and vernalization. A viewpoint of the intrinsic earliness hypothesis

Differences amongst wheat cultivars in the rate of reproductive development are largely dependent on differences in their sensitivity to photoperiod and vernalization. However, when these responses are accounted for, by growing vernalized seedlings under long photoperiods, cultivars can still differ markedly in time to ear emergence. Control of rate of development by this ‘third factor’ has been poorly understood and is variously referred to as intrinsic earliness, earliness in the narrow sense, basic vegetative period, earliness per se, and basic development rate. Certain assumptions are made in the concept of intrinsic earliness. They are that differences in intrinsic earliness (i) are independent of the responses of the cultivars to photoperiod and vernalization, (ii) apply only to the length of the vegetative period up to floral initiation (as suggested by several authors), (iii) are maintained under different temperatures, measured either in days or degree days. As a consequence of this, the ranking of cultivars (from intrinsically early to intrinsically late) must be maintained at different temperatures. This paper, by the re-analysis of published data, examines the extent to which these assumptions can be supported. Although it is shown that intrinsic earliness operates independently of photoperiod and vernalization responses, the other assumptions were not supported. The differences amongst genotypes in time to ear emergence, grown under above-optimum vernalization and photoperiod (that is when the response to these factors is saturated), were not exclusively due to parallel differences in the length of the vegetative phase, and the length of the reproductive phase was independent of that of the vegetative phase. Thus, it would be possible to change the relative allocation of time to vegetative and reproductive periods with no change in the full period to ear emergence. The differences in intrinsic earliness between cultivars were modified by the temperature regime under which they were grown, i.e. the difference between cultivars (both considering the full phase to ear emergence or some sub-phases) was not a constant amount of time or thermal time at different temperatures. In addition, in some instances genotypes changed their ranking for ‘intrinsic earliness’ depending on the temperature regime. This was interpreted to mean that while all genotypes are sensitive to temperature they differ amongst themselves in the extent of that sensitivity. Therefore, ‘intrinsic earliness’ should not be considered as a static genotypic characteristic, but the result of the interaction between the genotype and temperature. Intrinsic earliness is therefore likely to be related to temperature sensitivity. Some implications of these conclusions for plant breeding and crop simulation modelling are discussed.

Barley development as affected by rate of change of photoperiod

The rate of leaf appearance of barley varies substantially with time of sowing. This variation has been related to both the length and the rate of change of photoperiod at the time of plant emergence. An outdoor pot experiment was conducted to test if rate of change of photoperiod directly affects phasic development and rate of leaf emergence of spring barley. Two photoperiod-sensitive cultivars (Bandulla and Galleon) were subjected to five photoperiod regimes: two constant photoperiods, of 14 and 15·5 h, and three different rates of change of photoperiod of c. 2, 9 and 13 min/day from seedling emergence to awn initiation. Photoperiod treatments significantly affected the duration from seedling emergence to awn initiation in both cultivars. Rate of change of photoperiod did not affect the rate of development towards awn initiation independently of the absolute daylength it produced. Although Bandulla had a longer duration than Galleon at any photoperiod regime, the cultivars did not vary in their sensitivity to photoperiod. When this phase was divided into the leaf initiation (LI) and spikelet initiation (SI) phases, it was evident that the sensitivity to photoperiod was not constant, being in general higher during the SI than during the LI phase. However, the magnitude of the change in sensitivity was cultivar-dependent, indicating that sensitivity to photoperiod during the different phases could be under independent genetic control. Final numbers of primordia (leaves together with maximum spikelet number) were negatively affected by increasing photoperiods, but once again, there was no evidence of any effect of the rate of change of photoperiod which was independent of the average photoperiod. Both cultivars showed similar sensitivities for final leaf number but maximum spikelet number was more sensitive to photoperiod in Galleon than in Bandulla. Highly significant linear relationships between leaf number and thermal time were found for all combinations of cultivars and photoperiod regimes (r2 > 0·98). The rate of leaf appearance (RLA) was similar for both cultivars (c. 0·0185 leaves/°Cd) and did not alter during plant development or in response to the change in photoperiod at awn initiation. The range in RLA was greater for Galleon (0·0170–0·0205 leaves/°Cd) than for Bandulla (0·0173–0·0186 leaves/°Cd). Neither of these cultivars exhibited a significant relationship between rate of leaf emergence and photoperiod or rate of change of photoperiod. The lack of significant relationships between RLA and length or rate of change of photoperiod is in contrast with previous reports using time of sowing as a main treatment.

Selection response of growth rate in rabbits for meat production

Genetic and environmental trends in 2 lines of rabbit (B and R) selected on individual weight gain (WG) from weaning (4 wk) to slaughter (11 wk) were estimated using mixed model methodology. Line B was derived from the California breed and line R was a synthetic of stock of different origin. The data were collected from a single herd and comprised 7 718 individuals in line B and 9 391 in line R, the lines having 12 and 9 generations of selection respectively. Realized responses in the 2 lines were 2.7% and 2.2% of the initial mean per year respectively and showed that selection on WG was effective but was less than expected. Selection on slaughter weight (SW) and effects of selection on other economic traits are discussed. It is concluded that selection on either WG or SW is a simple method for improving growth rate in rabbit sire line stocks.

The impact of a register on the management of neonatal cooling in Switzerland.

BACKGROUND: Therapeutic hypothermia following hypoxic ischaemic encephalopathy in term infants was introduced into Switzerland in 2005. Initial documentation of perinatal and resuscitation details was poor and neuromonitoring insufficient. In 2011, a National Asphyxia and Cooling Register was introduced. AIMS: To compare management of cooled infants before and after introduction of the register concerning documentation, neuromonitoring, cooling methods and evaluation of temperature variability between cooling methods. STUDY DESIGN: Data of cooled infants before the register was in place (first time period: 2005-2010) and afterwards (second time period: 2011-2012) was collected with a case report form. RESULTS: 150 infants were cooled during the first time period and 97 during the second time period. Most infants were cooled passively or passively with gel packs during both time periods (82% in 2005-2010 vs 70% in 2011-2012), however more infants were cooled actively during the second time period (18% versus 30%). Overall there was a significant reduction in temperature variability (p < 0.001) comparing the two time periods. A significantly higher proportion of temperature measurements within target temperature range (72% versus 77%, p < 0.001), fewer temperature measurements above (24% versus 7%, p < 0.001) and more temperatures below target range (4% versus 16%, p < 0.001) were recorded during the second time period. Neuromonitoring improved after introduction of the cooling register. CONCLUSION: Management of infants with HIE improved since introducing the register. Temperature variability was reduced, more temperature measurements in the target range and fewer temperature measurements above target range were observed. Neuromonitoring has improved, however imaging should be performed more often.

Associations of baroreflex sensitivity, heart rate variability, and initial orthostatic hypotension with prenatal and recent postnatal methylmercury exposure in the Seychelles Child Development Study at age 19 years.

BACKGROUND: A few studies have suggested an association between prenatal exposure to methylmercury and decreased heart rate variability (HRV) related to autonomic heart function, but no study has examined this association using baroreflex sensitivity (BRS). In this study we assessed the distribution of BRS and immediate orthostatic hypotension (IOH) in young Seychellois adults and their associations with exposure to prenatal and recent postnatal methylmercury. METHODS: Subjects in the Seychelles Child Development Study (SCDS) main cohort were evaluated at age 19 years. Non-invasive beat-to-beat blood pressure (BP) monitoring (Finapres, Ohmeda) was performed at rest and during active standing in 95 consecutive subjects. Recent postnatal mercury exposure was measured in subjects' hair at the age of 19 years and prenatal exposure in maternal hair grown during pregnancy. BRS was estimated by sequence analysis to identify spontaneous ascending and descending BP ramps. HRV was estimated by the following markers: PNN50 (relative numbers of normal-to-normal intervals which are shorter by more than 50 ms than the immediately following normal-to-normal intervals); rMSSD (root mean of the squared sum of successive interval differences); LF/HF (low frequency/high frequency component ratio); ratio of the mean expiratory/inspiratory RR intervals (EI ratio); and the ratio between the longest RR interval 30 s after active standing and the shortest RR interval at 15 s (Max30/Min15). IOH was estimated by the deepest BP fall within the first 15 s after active standing up. RESULTS: Prenatal MeHg exposures were similar in boys and girls (6.7±4.3, 6.7±3.8 ng/g) but recent postnatal mercury levels were higher in males than females (11.2±5.8 vs 7.9±4.3 ng/g, p=0.003). Markers of autonomic heart rate control were within the normal range (BRS: 24.8±7 ms/mm Hg, PNN50: 24.9±6.8%, rMSSD: 68±22, LF/HF: 0.61±0.28) in both sexes. After standing, 51.4% of subjects had a transient systolic BP drop>40 mm Hg, but only 5.3% reported dizziness or had syncope. Prenatal and recent postnatal MeHg levels, overall, were not associated with BRS, E/I ratio, PNN50, rMSSD, LF/HF ratio, Max30/Min15 ratio, and IOH. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides no support for the hypothesis that prenatal or recent postnatal MeHg exposure from fish consumption is associated with impaired autonomic heart rate control.

European cancer mortality predictions for the year 2015 : does lung cancer have the highest death rate in EU women?

BACKGROUND: Cancer mortality statistics for 2015 were projected from the most recent available data for the European Union (EU) and its six more populous countries. Prostate cancer was analysed in detail. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Population and death certification data from stomach, colorectum, pancreas, lung, breast, uterus, prostate, leukaemias and total cancers were obtained from the World Health Organisation database and Eurostat. Figures were derived for the EU, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain and the UK. Projected 2015 numbers of deaths by age group were obtained by linear regression on estimated numbers of deaths over the most recent time period identified by a joinpoint regression model. RESULTS: A total of 1 359 100 cancer deaths are predicted in the EU in 2015 (766 200 men and 592 900 women), corresponding to standardised death rates of 138.4/100 000 men and 83.9/100 000 women, falling 7.5% and 6%, respectively, since 2009. In men, predicted rates for the three major cancers (lung, colorectum and prostate) are lower than in 2009, falling 9%, 5% and 12%. Prostate cancer showed predicted falls of 14%, 17% and 9% in the 35-64, 65-74 and 75+ age groups. In women, breast and colorectal cancers had favourable trends (-10% and -8%), but predicted lung cancer rates rise 9% to 14.24/100 000 becoming the cancer with the highest rate, reaching and possibly overtaking breast cancer rates-though the total number of deaths remain higher for breast (90 800) than lung (87 500). Pancreatic cancer has a negative outlook in both sexes, rising 4% in men and 5% in women between 2009 and 2015. CONCLUSIONS: Cancer mortality predictions for 2015 confirm the overall favourable cancer mortality trend in the EU, translating to an overall 26% fall in men since its peak in 1988, and 21% in women, and the avoidance of over 325 000 deaths in 2015 compared with the peak rate.