Patient error : a preliminary taxonomy

PURPOSE Current research on errors in health care focuses almost exclusively on system and clinician error. It tends to exclude how patients may create errors that influence their health. We aimed to identify the types of errors that patients can contribute and help manage, especially in primary care. METHODS Eleven nominal group interviews of patients and primary health care professionals were held in Auckland, New Zealand, during late 2007. Group members reported and helped to classify types of potential error by patients. We synthesized the ideas that emerged from the nominal groups into a taxonomy of patient error. RESULTS Our taxonomy is a 3-level system encompassing 70 potential types of patient error. The first level classifies 8 categories of error into 2 main groups: action errors and mental errors. The action errors, which result in part or whole from patient behavior, are attendance errors, assertion errors, and adherence errors. The mental errors, which are errors in patient thought processes, comprise memory errors, mindfulness errors, misjudgments, and—more distally—knowledge deficits and attitudes not conducive to health. CONCLUSION The taxonomy is an early attempt to understand and recognize how patients may err and what clinicians should aim to influence so they can help patients act safely. This approach begins to balance perspectives on error but requires further research. There is a need to move beyond seeing patient, clinician, and system errors as separate categories of error. An important next step may be research that attempts to understand how patients, clinicians, and systems interact to cocreate and reduce errors.

Evaluating ITS interventions at railway level crossings using a driving simulator

This paper assesses Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) to identify safety systems that are most likely to reduce driver errors at railway crossings. ITS technologies have been integrated in order to develop improved evaluation tools to reduce crashes at railway crossings. Although emerging technologies, knowledge, innovative interventions have been introduced to change driver behaviour, there is a lack of research on the impact of integrating ITS technologies and transportation simulation on drivers. The outcomes of ITS technologies for complementing traditional signage were compared with those of current safety systems (passive and active) at railway crossings. Three ITS technologies are compared with current treatments, in terms of compliance rate and vehicle speed profiles. It is found that ITS technologies improve compliance rate by 17~30% and also encourage drivers to slow down earlier compared to current passive and active crossings when there is a train approaching the railway crossings.

Distinguishing between mean-field, moment dynamics and stochastic descriptions of birth-death-movement processes

Mathematical descriptions of birth–death–movement processes are often calibrated to measurements from cell biology experiments to quantify tissue growth rates. Here we describe and analyze a discrete model of a birth–death-movement process applied to a typical two–dimensional cell biology experiment. We present three different descriptions of the system: (i) a standard mean–field description which neglects correlation effects and clustering; (ii) a moment dynamics description which approximately incorporates correlation and clustering effects, and; (iii) averaged data from repeated discrete simulations which directly incorporates correlation and clustering effects. Comparing these three descriptions indicates that the mean–field and moment dynamics approaches are valid only for certain parameter regimes, and that both these descriptions fail to make accurate predictions of the system for sufficiently fast birth and death rates where the effects of spatial correlations and clustering are sufficiently strong. Without any method to distinguish between the parameter regimes where these three descriptions are valid, it is possible that either the mean–field or moment dynamics model could be calibrated to experimental data under inappropriate conditions, leading to errors in parameter estimation. In this work we demonstrate that a simple measurement of agent clustering and correlation, based on coordination number data, provides an indirect measure of agent correlation and clustering effects, and can therefore be used to make a distinction between the validity of the different descriptions of the birth–death–movement process.

Monotonous trend estimation of deck displacement for automatic landing of rotorcraft UAVs

This paper presents a novel and practical procedure for estimating the mean deck height to assist in automatic landing operations of a Rotorcraft Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (RUAV) in harsh sea environments. A modified Prony Analysis (PA) procedure is outlined to deal with real-time observations of deck displacement, which involves developing an appropriate dynamic model to approach real deck motion with parameters identified through implementing the Forgetting Factor Recursive Least Square (FFRLS) method. The model order is specified using a proper order-selection criterion based on minimizing the summation of accumulated estimation errors. In addition, a feasible threshold criterion is proposed to separate the dominant components of deck displacement, which results in an accurate instantaneous estimation of the mean deck position. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed recursive procedure exhibits satisfactory estimation performance when applied to real-time deck displacement measurements, making it well suited for integration into ship-RUAV approach and landing guidance systems.

Cone signals and activity in myopia and emmetropia

Myopia (short-sightedness) is a common ocular disorder of children and young adults. Studies primarily using animal models have shown that the retina controls eye growth and the outer retina is likely to have a key role. One theory is that the proportion of L (long-wavelength-sensitive) and M (medium-wavelength-sensitive) cones is related to myopia development; with a high L/M cone ratio predisposing individuals to myopia. However, not all dichromats (persons with red-green colour vision deficiency) with extreme L/M cone ratios have high refractive errors. We predict that the L/M cone ratio will vary in individuals with normal trichromatic colour vision but not show a systematic difference simply due to refractive error. The aim of this study was to determine if L/M cone ratios in the central 30° are different between myopic and emmetropic young, colour normal adults. Information about L/M cone ratios was determined using the multifocal visual evoked potential (mfVEP). The mfVEP can be used to measure the response of visual cortex to different visual stimuli. The visual stimuli were generated and measurements performed using the Visual Evoked Response Imaging System (VERIS 5.1). The mfVEP was measured when the L and M cone systems were separately stimulated using the method of silent substitution. The method of silent substitution alters the output of three primary lights, each with physically different spectral distributions to control the excitation of one or more photoreceptor classes without changing the excitation of the unmodulated photoreceptor classes. The stimulus was a dartboard array subtending 30° horizontally and 30° vertically on a calibrated LCD screen. The m-sequence of the stimulus was 215-1. The N1-P1 amplitude ratio of the mfVEP was used to estimate the L/M cone ratio. Data were collected for 30 young adults (22 to 33 years of age), consisting of 10 emmetropes (+0.3±0.4 D) and 20 myopes (–3.4±1.7 D). The stimulus and analysis techniques were confirmed using responses of two dichromats. For the entire participant group, the estimated central L/M cone ratios ranged from 0.56 to 1.80 in the central 3°-13° diameter ring and from 0.94 to 1.91 in the more peripheral 13°-30° diameter ring. Within 3°-13°, the mean L/M cone ratio of the emmetropic group was 1.20±0.33 and the mean was similar, 1.20±0.26, for the myopic group. For the 13°-30° ring, the mean L/M cone ratio of the emmetropic group was 1.48±0.27 and it was slightly lower in the myopic group, 1.30±0.27. Independent-samples t-test indicated no significant difference between the L/M cone ratios of the emmetropic and myopic group for either the central 3°-13° ring (p=0.986) or the more peripheral 13°-30° ring (p=0.108). The similar distributions of estimated L/M cone ratios in the sample of emmetropes and myopes indicates that there is likely to be no association between the L/M cone ratio and refractive error in humans.

Spatio-temporal modelling of ultrafine particle number concentration

This thesis developed semi-parametric regression models for estimating the spatio-temporal distribution of outdoor airborne ultrafine particle number concentration (PNC). The models developed incorporate multivariate penalised splines and random walks and autoregressive errors in order to estimate non-linear functions of space, time and other covariates. The models were applied to data from the "Ultrafine Particles from Traffic Emissions and Child" project in Brisbane, Australia, and to longitudinal measurements of air quality in Helsinki, Finland. The spline and random walk aspects of the models reveal how the daily trend in PNC changes over the year in Helsinki and the similarities and differences in the daily and weekly trends across multiple primary schools in Brisbane. Midday peaks in PNC in Brisbane locations are attributed to new particle formation events at the Port of Brisbane and Brisbane Airport.

Ageing, technology anxiety and intuitive use of complex interfaces

This paper presents the outcome of a study that investigated the relationships between technology prior experience, self-efficacy, technology anxiety, complexity of interface (nested versus flat) and intuitive use in older people. The findings show that, as expected, older people took less time to complete the task on the interface that used a flat structure when compared to the interface that used a complex nested structure. All age groups also used the flat interface more intuitively. However, contrary to what was hypothesised, older age groups did better under anxious conditions. Interestingly, older participants did not make significantly more errors compared with younger age groups on either interface structures.

Cyclin A/CDK2 regulates multiple G2 phase pathways

The cell cycle is a carefully choreographed series of phases that when executed successfully will allow the complete replication of the genome and the equal division of the genome and other cellular content into two independent daughter cells. The inability of the cell to execute cell division successfully can result in either checkpoint activation to allow repair and/or apoptosis and/or mutations/errors that may or may not lead to tumourgenesis. Cyclin A/CDK2 is the primary cyclin/CDK regulating G2 phase progression of the cell cycle. Cyclin A/CDK2 activity peaks in G2 phase and its inhibition causes a G2 phase delay that we have termed 'the cyclin A/CDK2 dependent G2 delay'. Understanding the key pathways that are involved in the cyclin A/CDK2 dependent G2 delay has been the primary focus of this study. Characterising the cyclin A/CDK2 dependent G2 delay revealed accumulated levels of the inactive form of the mitotic regulator, cyclin B/CDK1. Surprisingly, there was also increased microtubule nucleation at the centrosomes, and the centrosomes stained for markers of cyclin B/CDK1 activity. Both microtubule nucleation at the centrosomes and phosphoprotein markers were lost with short-term treatment of CDK1/2 inhibition. Cyclin A/CDK2 localised at the centrosomes in late G2 phase after separation of the centrosomes but before the start of prophase. Thus G2 phase cyclin A/CDK2 controls the timing of entry into mitosis by controlling the subsequent activation of cyclin B/CDK1, but also has an unexpected role in coordinating the activation of cyclin B/CDK1 at the centrosome and in the nucleus. In addition to regulating the timing of cyclin B/CDK1 activation and entry into mitosis in the unperturbed cell cycle, cyclin A/CDK2 also was shown to have a role in G2 phase checkpoint recovery. Known G2 phase regulators were investigated to determine whether they had a role in imposing the cyclin A/ CDK2 dependent G2 delay. Examination of the critical G2 checkpoint arrest protein, Chk1, which also has a role during unperturbed G2/M phases revealed the presence of activated Chk1 in G2 phase, in a range of cell lines. Activated Chk1 levels were shown to accumulate in cyclin A/CDK2 depleted/inhibited cells. Further investigations revealed that Chk1, but not Chk2, depletion could reverse the cyclin A/CDK2 dependent G2 delay. It was confirmed that the accumulative activation of Chk1 was not a consequence of DNA damage induced by cyclin A depletion. The potential of cyclin A/CDK2 to regulate Chk1 revealed that the inhibitory phosphorylations, Ser286 and Ser301, were not directly catalysed by cyclin A/CDK2 in G2 phase to regulate mitotic entry. It appeared that the ability of cyclin A/CDK2 to regulate cyclin B/CDK1 activation impacted cyclin B/CDK1s phosphorylation of Chk1 on Ser286 and Ser301, thereby contributing to the delay in G2/M phase progression. Chk1 inhibition/depletion partially abrogated the cyclin A/CDK2 dependent G2 delay, and was less effective in abrogating G2 phase checkpoint suggesting that other cyclin A/CDK2 dependent mechanisms contributed to these roles of cyclin A/CDK2. In an attempt to identify these other contributing factors another G2/M phase regulator known to be regulated by cyclin A/CDK2, Cdh1 and its substrates Plk1 and Claspin were examined. Cdh1 levels were reduced in cyclin A/CDK2 depleted/inhibited cells although this had little effect on Plk1, a known Cdh1 substrate. However, the level of another substrate, Claspin, was increased. Cdh1 depletion mimicked the effect of cyclin A depletion but to a weaker extent and was sufficient at increasing Claspin levels similar to the increase caused by cyclin A depletion. Co-depletion of cyclin A and Claspin blocked the accumulation of activated Chk1 normally seen with cyclin A depletion alone. However Claspin depletion alone did not reduce the cyclin A/CDK2 dependent G2 delay but this is likely to be a result of inhibition of S phase roles of Claspin. Together, these data suggest that cyclin A/CDK2 regulates a number of different mechanisms that contribute to G2/M phase progression. Here it has been demonstrated that in normal G2/M progression and possibly to a lesser extent in G2 phase checkpoint recovery, cyclin A/CDK2 regulates the level of Cdh1 which in turn affects at least one of its substrates, Claspin, and consequently results in the increased level of activated Chk1 observed. However, the involvement of Cdh1 and Claspin alone does not explain the G2 phase delay observed with cyclin A/CDK2 depletion/inhibition. It is likely that other mechanisms, possibly including cyclin A/CDK2 regulation of Wee1 and FoxM1, as reported by others, combine with the mechanism described here to regulate normal G2/M phase progression and G2 phase checkpoint recovery. These findings support the critical role for cyclin A/CDK2 in regulating progression into mitosis and suggest that upstream regulators of cyclin A/CDK2 activation will also be critical controllers of this cell cycle transition. The pathways that work to co-ordinate cell cycle progression are very intricate and deciphering these pathways, required for normal cell cycle progression, is key to understanding tumour development. By understanding cell cycle regulatory pathways it will allow the identification of the pathway/s and their mechanism/s that become affected in tumourgenesis. This will lead to the development of better targeted therapies, inferring better efficacy with fewer side effects than commonly seen with the use of traditional therapies, such as chemotherapy. Furthermore, this has the potential to positively impact the development of personalised medicines and the customisation of healthcare.

A method of extracting switching loss from a high efficiency MOSFET based half bridge converter

The measurement of losses in high efficiency / high power converters is difficult. Measuring the losses directly from the difference between the input and output power results in large errors. Calorimetric methods are usually used to bypass this issue but introduce different problems, such as, long measurement times, limited power loss measurement range and/or large set up cost. In this paper the total losses of a converter are measured directly and switching losses are exacted. The measurements can be taken with only three multimeters and a current probe and a standard bench power supply. After acquiring two or three power loss versus output current sweeps, a series of curve fitting processes are applied and the switching losses extracted.

Quantification of ebullitive and diffusive methane release to atmosphere from a water storage

Accurately quantifying total freshwater storage methane release to atmosphere requires the spatial–temporal measurement of both diffusive and ebullitive emissions. Existing floating chamber techniques provide localised assessment of methane flux, however, significant errors can arise when weighting and extrapolation to the entire storage, particularly when ebullition is significant. An improved technique has been developed that compliments traditional chamber based experiments to quantify the storage-scale release of methane gas to atmosphere through ebullition using the measurements from an Optical Methane Detector (OMD) and a robotic boat. This provides a conservative estimate of the methane emission rate from ebullition along with the bubble volume distribution. It also georeferences the area of ebullition activity across entire storages at short temporal scales. An assessment on Little Nerang Dam in Queensland, Australia, demonstrated whole storage methane release significantly differed spatially and throughout the day. Total methane emission estimates showed a potential 32-fold variation in whole-of-dam rates depending on the measurement and extrapolation method and time of day used. The combined chamber and OMD technique showed that 1.8–7.0% of the surface area of Little Nerang Dam is accounting for up to 97% of total methane release to atmosphere throughout the day. Additionally, over 95% of detectable ebullition occurred in depths less than 12 m during the day and 6 m at night. This difference in spatial and temporal methane release rate distribution highlights the need to monitor significant regions of, if not the entire, water storage in order to provide an accurate estimate of ebullition rates and their contribution to annual methane emissions.

Building an augmented map for road risk assessment

Recent road safety statistics show that the decades-long fatalities decreasing trend is stopping and stagnating. Statistics further show that crashes are mostly driven by human error, compared to other factors such as environmental conditions and mechanical defects. Within human error, the dominant error source is perceptive errors, which represent about 50% of the total. The next two sources are interpretation and evaluation, which accounts together with perception for more than 75% of human error related crashes. Those statistics show that allowing drivers to perceive and understand their environment better, or supplement them when they are clearly at fault, is a solution to a good assessment of road risk, and, as a consequence, further decreasing fatalities. To answer this problem, currently deployed driving assistance systems combine more and more information from diverse sources (sensors) to enhance the driver's perception of their environment. However, because of inherent limitations in range and field of view, these systems' perception of their environment remains largely limited to a small interest zone around a single vehicle. Such limitations can be overcomed by increasing the interest zone through a cooperative process. Cooperative Systems (CS), a specific subset of Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS), aim at compensating for local systems' limitations by associating embedded information technology and intervehicular communication technology (IVC). With CS, information sources are not limited to a single vehicle anymore. From this distribution arises the concept of extended or augmented perception. Augmented perception allows extending an actor's perceptive horizon beyond its "natural" limits not only by fusing information from multiple in-vehicle sensors but also information obtained from remote sensors. The end result of an augmented perception and data fusion chain is known as an augmented map. It is a repository where any relevant information about objects in the environment, and the environment itself, can be stored in a layered architecture. This thesis aims at demonstrating that augmented perception has better performance than noncooperative approaches, and that it can be used to successfully identify road risk. We found it was necessary to evaluate the performance of augmented perception, in order to obtain a better knowledge on their limitations. Indeed, while many promising results have already been obtained, the feasibility of building an augmented map from exchanged local perception information and, then, using this information beneficially for road users, has not been thoroughly assessed yet. The limitations of augmented perception, and underlying technologies, have not be thoroughly assessed yet. Most notably, many questions remain unanswered as to the IVC performance and their ability to deliver appropriate quality of service to support life-saving critical systems. This is especially true as the road environment is a complex, highly variable setting where many sources of imperfections and errors exist, not only limited to IVC. We provide at first a discussion on these limitations and a performance model built to incorporate them, created from empirical data collected on test tracks. Our results are more pessimistic than existing literature, suggesting IVC limitations have been underestimated. Then, we develop a new CS-applications simulation architecture. This architecture is used to obtain new results on the safety benefits of a cooperative safety application (EEBL), and then to support further study on augmented perception. At first, we confirm earlier results in terms of crashes numbers decrease, but raise doubts on benefits in terms of crashes' severity. In the next step, we implement an augmented perception architecture tasked with creating an augmented map. Our approach is aimed at providing a generalist architecture that can use many different types of sensors to create the map, and which is not limited to any specific application. The data association problem is tackled with an MHT approach based on the Belief Theory. Then, augmented and single-vehicle perceptions are compared in a reference driving scenario for risk assessment,taking into account the IVC limitations obtained earlier; we show their impact on the augmented map's performance. Our results show that augmented perception performs better than non-cooperative approaches, allowing to almost tripling the advance warning time before a crash. IVC limitations appear to have no significant effect on the previous performance, although this might be valid only for our specific scenario. Eventually, we propose a new approach using augmented perception to identify road risk through a surrogate: near-miss events. A CS-based approach is designed and validated to detect near-miss events, and then compared to a non-cooperative approach based on vehicles equiped with local sensors only. The cooperative approach shows a significant improvement in the number of events that can be detected, especially at the higher rates of system's deployment.

Understanding pedestrian behaviour at railway level crossings : is there a need for more research?

Aim Collisions between trains and pedestrians are the most likely to result in severe injuries and fatalities when compared to other types of rail crossing accidents. Currently, there is a growing emphasis towards developing effective interventions designed to reduce the prevalence of train–pedestrian collisions. This paper reviews what is currently known regarding the personal and environmental factors that contribute to train–pedestrian collisions, particularly among high-risk groups. Method Studies that reported on the prevalence and characteristics of pedestrian accidents at railway crossings up until June 2012 were searched in electronic databases. Results Males, school children and older pedestrians (and those with disabilities) are disproportionately represented in fatality databases. However, a main theme to emerge is that little is known about the origins of train–pedestrian collisions (especially compared to train–vehicle collisions). In particular, whether collisions result from engaging in deliberate violations versus making decisional errors. This subsequently limits the corresponding development of effective and targeted interventions for high-risk groups as well as crossing locations. Finally, it remains unclear what combination of surveillance and deterrence-based and education-focused campaigns are required to produce lasting reductions in train–pedestrian fatality rates. This paper provides direction for future research into the personal and environmental origins of collisions as well as the development of interventions that aim to attract pedestrians’ attention and ensure crossing rules are respected.

Choroidal thickness in childhood

Purpose To examine choroidal thickness (ChT) and its spatial distribution across the posterior pole in pediatric subjects with normal ocular health and minimal refractive error. Methods ChT was assessed using spectral domain optical coherence tomography (OCT) in 194 children aged between 4-12 years, with spherical equivalent refractive errors between +1.25 and -0.50 DS. A series of OCT scans were collected, imaging the choroid along 4 radial scan lines centered on the fovea (each separated by 45°). Frame averaging was used to reduce noise and enhance chorio-scleral junction visibility. The transverse scale of each scan was corrected to account for magnification effects associated with axial length. Two independent masked observers manually segmented the OCT images to determine ChT at foveal centre, and averaged across a series of perifoveal zones over the central 5 mm. Results The average subfoveal ChT was 330 ± 65 µm (range 189-538 µm), and was significantly influenced by age (p=0.04). The ChT of the 4 to 6 year old age group (312 ± 62 µm) was significantly thinner compared to the 7 to 9 year olds (337 ± 65 µm, p<0.05) and bordered on significance compared to the 10 to 12 year olds (341 ± 61 µm, p=0.08). ChT also exhibited significant variation across the posterior pole, being thicker in more central regions. The choroid was thinner nasally and inferiorly compared to temporally and superiorly. Multiple regression analysis revealed age, axial length and anterior chamber depth were significantly associated with subfoveal ChT (p<0.001). Conclusions ChT increases significantly from early childhood to adolescence. This appears to be a normal feature of childhood eye growth.

Dependence of residual amplitude noise in electro-optic phase modulators on the intensity distribution of the incident field

Our results demonstrate that photorefractive residual amplitude modulation (RAM) noise in electro-optic modulators (EOMs) can be reduced by modifying the incident beam intensity distribution. Here we report an order of magnitude reduction in RAM when beams with uniform intensity (flat-top) profiles, generated with an LCOS-SLM, are used instead of the usual fundamental Gaussian mode (TEM00). RAM arises from the photorefractive amplified scatter noise off the defects and impurities within the crystal. A reduction in RAM is observed with increasing intensity uniformity (flatness), which is attributed to a reduction in space charge field on the beam axis. The level of RAM reduction that can be achieved is physically limited by clipping at EOM apertures, with the observed results agreeing well with a simple model. These results are particularly important in applications where the reduction of residual amplitude modulation to 10^-6 is essential.

The wrong tool for the job? The predictive powers of the DBQ in a sample of Queensland motorists

Introduction This study reports on the application of the Manchester Driver Behaviour Questionnaire (DBQ) to examine the self-reported driving behaviours (e.g., speeding, errors & aggressive manoeuvres) and predict crash involvement among a sample of general Queensland motorists. Material and Methods Surveys were completed by 249 general motorists on-line or via a pen-and-paper format. Results A factor analysis revealed a three factor solution for the DBQ which was consistent with previous Australian-based research. It accounted for 40.5% of the total variance, although some cross-loadings were observed on nine of the twenty items. The internal reliability of the DBQ was satisfactory. However, multivariate analysis using the DBQ revealed little predictive ability of the tool to predict crash involvement or demerit point loss e.g. violation notices. Rather, exposure to the road was found to be predictive of crashes, although speeding did make a small contribution to those who recently received a violation notice. Conclusions Taken together, the findings contribute to a growing body of research that raises questions about the predictive ability of the most widely used driving assessment tool globally. Ongoing research (which also includes official crash and offence outcomes) is required to better understand the actual contribution that the DBQ can make to understanding and improving road safety. Future research should also aim to confirm whether this lack of predictive efficacy originates from broader issues inherent within self-report data (e.g., memory recall problems) or issues underpinning the conceptualisation of the scale.