A BAYESIAN SHRINKAGE MODEL FOR INCOMPLETE LONGITUDINAL BINARY DATA WITH APPLICATION TO THE BREAST CANCER PREVENTION TRIAL

We consider inference in randomized studies, in which repeatedly measured outcomes may be informatively missing due to drop out. In this setting, it is well known that full data estimands are not identified unless unverified assumptions are imposed. We assume a non-future dependence model for the drop-out mechanism and posit an exponential tilt model that links non-identifiable and identifiable distributions. This model is indexed by non-identified parameters, which are assumed to have an informative prior distribution, elicited from subject-matter experts. Under this model, full data estimands are shown to be expressed as functionals of the distribution of the observed data. To avoid the curse of dimensionality, we model the distribution of the observed data using a Bayesian shrinkage model. In a simulation study, we compare our approach to a fully parametric and a fully saturated model for the distribution of the observed data. Our methodology is motivated and applied to data from the Breast Cancer Prevention Trial.

A unified approach to modeling multivariate binary data using copulas over partitions

Many seemingly disparate approaches for marginal modeling have been developed in recent years. We demonstrate that many current approaches for marginal modeling of correlated binary outcomes produce likelihoods that are equivalent to the proposed copula-based models herein. These general copula models of underlying latent threshold random variables yield likelihood based models for marginal fixed effects estimation and interpretation in the analysis of correlated binary data. Moreover, we propose a nomenclature and set of model relationships that substantially elucidates the complex area of marginalized models for binary data. A diverse collection of didactic mathematical and numerical examples are given to illustrate concepts.

DESIGN AND IMPLEMENT DYNAMIC PROGRAMMING BASED DISCRETE POWER LEVEL SMART HOME SCHEDULING USING FPGA

With the development and capabilities of the Smart Home system, people today are entering an era in which household appliances are no longer just controlled by people, but also operated by a Smart System. This results in a more efficient, convenient, comfortable, and environmentally friendly living environment. A critical part of the Smart Home system is Home Automation, which means that there is a Micro-Controller Unit (MCU) to control all the household appliances and schedule their operating times. This reduces electricity bills by shifting amounts of power consumption from the on-peak hour consumption to the off-peak hour consumption, in terms of different “hour price”. In this paper, we propose an algorithm for scheduling multi-user power consumption and implement it on an FPGA board, using it as the MCU. This algorithm for discrete power level tasks scheduling is based on dynamic programming, which could find a scheduling solution close to the optimal one. We chose FPGA as our system’s controller because FPGA has low complexity, parallel processing capability, a large amount of I/O interface for further development and is programmable on both software and hardware. In conclusion, it costs little time running on FPGA board and the solution obtained is good enough for the consumers.

On Graphically Checking Goodness-of-fit of Binary Logistic Regression Models

OBJECTIVES: This paper is concerned with checking goodness-of-fit of binary logistic regression models. For the practitioners of data analysis, the broad classes of procedures for checking goodness-of-fit available in the literature are described. The challenges of model checking in the context of binary logistic regression are reviewed. As a viable solution, a simple graphical procedure for checking goodness-of-fit is proposed. METHODS: The graphical procedure proposed relies on pieces of information available from any logistic analysis; the focus is on combining and presenting these in an informative way. RESULTS: The information gained using this approach is presented with three examples. In the discussion, the proposed method is put into context and compared with other graphical procedures for checking goodness-of-fit of binary logistic models available in the literature. CONCLUSION: A simple graphical method can significantly improve the understanding of any logistic regression analysis and help to prevent faulty conclusions.

Context-Oriented Programming

Context-dependent behavior is becoming increasingly important for a wide range of application domains, from pervasive computing to common business applications. Unfortunately, mainstream programming languages do not provide mechanisms that enable software entities to adapt their behavior dynamically to the current execution context. This leads developers to adopt convoluted designs to achieve the necessary runtime flexibility. We propose a new programming technique called Context-oriented Programming (COP) which addresses this problem. COP treats context explicitly, and provides mechanisms to dynamically adapt behavior in reaction to changes in context, even after system deployment at runtime. In this paper we lay the foundations of COP, show how dynamic layer activation enables multi-dimensional dispatch, illustrate the application of COP by examples in several language extensions, and demonstrate that COP is largely independent of other commitments to programming style.

Setting Inventory Levels of CONWIP Flow Lines via Linear Programming

This paper treats the problem of setting the inventory level and optimizing the buffer allocation of closed-loop flow lines operating under the constant-work-in-process (CONWIP) protocol. We solve a very large but simple linear program that models an entire simulation run of a closed-loop flow line in discrete time to determine a production rate estimate of the system. This approach introduced in Helber, Schimmelpfeng, Stolletz, and Lagershausen (2011) for open flow lines with limited buffer capacities is extended to closed-loop CONWIP flow lines. Via this method, both the CONWIP level and the buffer allocation can be optimized simultaneously. The first part of a numerical study deals with the accuracy of the method. In the second part, we focus on the relationship between the CONWIP inventory level and the short-term profit. The accuracy of the method turns out to be best for such configurations that maximize production rate and/or short-term profit.

Fuzzy Multi-Objective Linear Programming and Simulation Approach to the Development of Valid and Realistic Master Production Schedule

Master production schedule (MPS) plays an important role in an integrated production planning system. It converts the strategic planning defined in a production plan into the tactical operation execution. The MPS is also known as a tool for top management to control over manufacture resources and becomes input of the downstream planning levels such as material requirement planning (MRP) and capacity requirement planning (CRP). Hence, inappropriate decision on the MPS development may lead to infeasible execution, which ultimately causes poor delivery performance. One must ensure that the proposed MPS is valid and realistic for implementation before it is released to real manufacturing system. In practice, where production environment is stochastic in nature, the development of MPS is no longer simple task. The varying processing time, random event such as machine failure is just some of the underlying causes of uncertainty that may be hardly addressed at planning stage so that in the end the valid and realistic MPS is tough to be realized. The MPS creation problem becomes even more sophisticated as decision makers try to consider multi-objectives; minimizing inventory, maximizing customer satisfaction, and maximizing resource utilization. This study attempts to propose a methodology for MPS creation which is able to deal with those obstacles. This approach takes into account uncertainty and makes trade off among conflicting multi-objectives at the same time. It incorporates fuzzy multi-objective linear programming (FMOLP) and discrete event simulation (DES) for MPS development.

Using Dynamic Programming Decomposition for Revenue Management with Opaque Products

Opaque products enable service providers to hide specific characteristics of their service fulfillment from the customer until after purchase. Prominent examples include internet-based service providers selling airline tickets without defining details, such as departure time or operating airline, until the booking has been made. Owing to the resulting flexibility in resource utilization, the traditional revenue management process needs to be modified. In this paper, we extend dynamic programming decomposition techniques widely used for traditional revenue management to develop an intuitive capacity control approach that allows for the incorporation of opaque products. In a simulation study, we show that the developed approach significantly outperforms other well-known capacity control approaches adapted to the opaque product setting. Based on the approach, we also provide computational examples of how the share of opaque products as well as the degree of opacity can influence the results.

ProFormA: An XML-based exchange format for programming tasks

Unterstützungssysteme für die Programmierausbildung sind weit verbreitet, doch gängige Standards für den Austausch von allgemeinen (Lern-) Inhalten und Tests erfüllen nicht die speziellen Anforderungen von Programmieraufgaben wie z. B. den Umgang mit komplexen Einreichungen aus mehreren Dateien oder die Kombination verschiedener (automatischer) Bewertungsverfahren. Dadurch können Aufgaben nicht zwischen Systemen ausgetauscht werden, was aufgrund des hohen Aufwands für die Entwicklung guter Aufgaben jedoch wünschenswert wäre. In diesem Beitrag wird ein erweiterbares XML-basiertes Format zum Austausch von Programmieraufgaben vorgestellt, das bereits von mehreren Systemen prototypisch genutzt wird. Die Spezifikation des Austauschformats ist online verfügbar [PFMA].