Problems with binary pattern measures for flood model evaluation

As the calibration and evaluation of flood inundation models are a prerequisite for their successful application, there is a clear need to ensure that the performance measures that quantify how well models match the available observations are fit for purpose. This paper evaluates the binary pattern performance measures that are frequently used to compare flood inundation models with observations of flood extent. This evaluation considers whether these measures are able to calibrate and evaluate model predictions in a credible and consistent way, i.e. identifying the underlying model behaviour for a number of different purposes such as comparing models of floods of different magnitudes or on different catchments. Through theoretical examples, it is shown that the binary pattern measures are not consistent for floods of different sizes, such that for the same vertical error in water level, a model of a flood of large magnitude appears to perform better than a model of a smaller magnitude flood. Further, the commonly used Critical Success Index (usually referred to as F<2 >) is biased in favour of overprediction of the flood extent, and is also biased towards correctly predicting areas of the domain with smaller topographic gradients. Consequently, it is recommended that future studies consider carefully the implications of reporting conclusions using these performance measures. Additionally, future research should consider whether a more robust and consistent analysis could be achieved by using elevation comparison methods instead.

Teaching programming to beginners in a massive open online course

The University of Reading’s first Massive Open Online Course (MOOC) “Begin Programming: Build your first mobile game” (#FLMobiGame) was offered in Autumn 2013 on the FutureLearn platform. This course used a simple Android game framework to present basic programming concepts to complete beginners. The course attracted wide interest from all age groups. The course presented opportunities and challenges to both participants and educators. While some participants had difficulties accessing content some others had trouble grasping the concepts and applying them in a real program. Managing forums was cumbersome with the limited facilities supported by the Beta-platform. A healthy community was formed around the course with the support of social media. The case study reported here is part of an ongoing research programme exploring participants’ MOOC engagement and experience using a grounded, ethnographical approach.

Precise analysis of array usage in scientific programs

The automatic transformation of sequential programs for efficient execution on parallel computers involves a number of analyses and restructurings of the input. Some of these analyses are based on computing array sections, a compact description of a range of array elements. Array sections describe the set of array elements that are either read or written by program statements. These sections can be compactly represented using shape descriptors such as regular sections, simple sections, or generalized convex regions. However, binary operations such as Union performed on these representations do not satisfy a straightforward closure property, e.g., if the operands to Union are convex, the result may be nonconvex. Approximations are resorted to in order to satisfy this closure property. These approximations introduce imprecision in the analyses and, furthermore, the imprecisions resulting from successive operations have a cumulative effect. Delayed merging is a technique suggested and used in some of the existing analyses to minimize the effects of approximation. However, this technique does not guarantee an exact solution in a general setting. This article presents a generalized technique to precisely compute Union which can overcome these imprecisions.

Virtualization for cost-effective teaching of assembly language programming

A virtual system that emulates an ARM-based processor machine has been created to replace a traditional hardware-based system for teaching assembly language. The proposed virtual system integrates, in a single environment, all the development tools necessary to deliver introductory or advanced courses on modern assembly language programming. The virtual system runs a Linux operating system in either a graphical or console mode on a Windows or Linux host machine. No software licenses or extra hardware are required to use the virtual system, thus students are free to carry their own ARM emulator with them on a USB memory stick. Institutions adopting this, or a similar virtual system, can also benefit by reducing capital investment in hardware-based development kits and enable distance learning courses.

Bit-index sort: a fast non-comparison integer sorting algorithm for permutations

This paper describes a fast integer sorting algorithm, herein referred as Bit-index sort, which is a non-comparison sorting algorithm for partial per-mutations, with linear complexity order in execution time. Bit-index sort uses a bit-array to classify input sequences of distinct integers, and exploits built-in bit functions in C compilers supported by machine hardware to retrieve the ordered output sequence. Results show that Bit-index sort outperforms in execution time to quicksort and counting sort algorithms. A parallel approach for Bit-index sort using two simultaneous threads is included, which obtains speedups up to 1.6.

Sample size considerations in active-control non-inferiority trials with binary data based on the odds ratio

This paper presents an approximate closed form sample size formula for determining non-inferiority in active-control trials with binary data. We use the odds-ratio as the measure of the relative treatment effect, derive the sample size formula based on the score test and compare it with a second, well-known formula based on the Wald test. Both closed form formulae are compared with simulations based on the likelihood ratio test. Within the range of parameter values investigated, the score test closed form formula is reasonably accurate when non-inferiority margins are based on odds-ratios of about 0.5 or above and when the magnitude of the odds ratio under the alternative hypothesis lies between about 1 and 2.5. The accuracy generally decreases as the odds ratio under the alternative hypothesis moves upwards from 1. As the non-inferiority margin odds ratio decreases from 0.5, the score test closed form formula increasingly overestimates the sample size irrespective of the magnitude of the odds ratio under the alternative hypothesis. The Wald test closed form formula is also reasonably accurate in the cases where the score test closed form formula works well. Outside these scenarios, the Wald test closed form formula can either underestimate or overestimate the sample size, depending on the magnitude of the non-inferiority margin odds ratio and the odds ratio under the alternative hypothesis. Although neither approximation is accurate for all cases, both approaches lead to satisfactory sample size calculation for non-inferiority trials with binary data where the odds ratio is the parameter of interest.

Sex differences in the programming effects of prenatal stress on psychopathology and stress responses: an evolutionary perspective

There is strong evidence from animal studies that prenatal stress has different effects on male and female offspring. In general, although not always, prenatal stress increases anxiety, depression and stress responses, both hypothalamic–pituitary–adrenal and cardiovascular, in female offspring rather than in male. Males are more likely to show learning and memory deficits. There have been few studies so far in humans which differentiate effects of prenatal stress on male and female psychopathology. Some studies support the animal models, but the evidence is inconsistent. The mediating mechanisms for any sex specific effects are little understood, but there is evidence that placental function can differ depending on the sex of the fetus. We suggest that there may be an evolutionary reason for any sex differences in the long term effects of prenatal stress. In a stressful environment it may be adaptive for females, who are more likely to stay in one place and look after children, to be more vigilant, alert to danger and thus show more stress responsiveness. This can give rise to a more anxious or depressed phenotype. With males it may be more adaptive to go out and explore new environments, compete with other males, and be more aggressive. For this it may help to be less responsive to external stressors. More research is needed into sex differences in the effects of prenatal stress in humans, to test these ideas.

Evidence for sex differences in fetal programming of physiological stress reactivity in infancy

Associations between low birth weight and prenatal anxiety and later psychopathology may arise from programming effects likely to be adaptive under some, but not other, environmental exposures and modified by sex differences. If physiological reactivity, which also confers vulnerability or resilience in an environment-dependent manner, is associated with birth weight and prenatal anxiety, it will be a candidate to mediate the links with psychopathology. From a general population sample of 1,233 first-time mothers recruited at 20 weeks gestation, a sample of 316 stratified by adversity was assessed at 32 weeks and when their infants were aged 29 weeks (N = 271). Prenatal anxiety was assessed by self-report, birth weight from medical records, and vagal reactivity from respiratory sinus arrhythmia during four nonstressful and one stressful (still-face) procedure. Lower birth weight for gestational age predicted higher vagal reactivity only in girls (interaction term, p = .016), and prenatal maternal anxiety predicted lower vagal reactivity only in boys (interaction term, p = .014). These findings are consistent with sex differences in fetal programming, whereby prenatal risks are associated with increased stress reactivity in females but decreased reactivity in males, with distinctive advantages and penalties for each sex.

Maternal antenatal anxiety, postnatal stroking and emotional problems in children: outcomes predicted from pre and postnatal programming hypotheses

Background Mothers' self-reported stroking of their infants over the first weeks of life modifies the association between prenatal depression and physiological and emotional reactivity at 7 months, consistent with animal studies of the effects of tactile stimulation. We now investigate whether the effects of maternal stroking persist to 2.5 years. Given animal and human evidence for sex differences in the effects of prenatal stress we compare associations in boys and girls. Method From a general population sample of 1233 first-time mothers recruited at 20 weeks gestation we drew a random sample of 316 for assessment at 32 weeks, stratified by reported inter-partner psychological abuse, a risk indicator for child development. Of these mothers, 243 reported at 5 and 9 weeks how often they stroked their infants, and completed the Child Behavior Checklist (CBCL) at 2.5 years post-delivery. Results There was a significant interaction between prenatal anxiety and maternal stroking in the prediction of CBCL internalizing (p = 0.001) and anxious/depressed scores (p < 0.001). The effects were stronger in females than males, and the three-way interaction prenatal anxiety × maternal stroking × sex of infant was significant for internalizing symptoms (p = 0.003). The interactions arose from an association between prenatal anxiety and internalizing symptoms only in the presence of low maternal stroking. Conclusions The findings are consistent with stable epigenetic effects, many sex specific, reported in animal studies. While epigenetic mechanisms may be underlying the associations, it remains to be established whether stroking affects gene expression in humans.

Fetal programming of adipose tissue function: an evolutionary perspective

Obesity is an escalating threat of pandemic proportions and has risen to such unrivaled prominence in such a short period of time that it has come to define a whole generation in many countries around the globe. The burden of obesity, however, is not equally shared among the population, with certain ethnicities being more prone to obesity than others, while some appear to be resistant to obesity altogether. The reasons behind this ethnic basis for obesity resistance and susceptibility, however, have remained largely elusive. In recent years, much evidence has shown that the level of brown adipose tissue thermogenesis, which augments energy expenditure and is negatively associated with obesity in both rodents and humans, varies greatly between ethnicities. Interestingly, the incidence of low birth weight, which is associated with an increased propensity for obesity and cardiovascular disease in later life, has also been shown to vary by ethnic background. This review serves to reconcile ethnic variations in BAT development and function with ethnic differences in birth weight outcomes to argue that the variation in obesity susceptibility between ethnic groups may have its origins in the in utero programming of BAT development and function as a result of evolutionary adaptation to cold environments.

Generalised golden ratios over integer alphabets

It is a well known result that for β ∈ (1,1+√52) and x ∈ (0,1β−1) there exists uncountably many (ǫi)∞i=1 ∈ {0,1}N such that x = P∞i=1ǫiβ−i. When β ∈ (1+√52,2] there exists x ∈ (0,1β−1) for which there exists a unique (ǫi)∞i=1 ∈ {0,1}N such that x=P∞i=1ǫiβ−i. In this paper we consider the more general case when our sequences are elements of {0, . . . , m}N. We show that an analogue of the golden ratio exists and give an explicit formula for it.

Enzymatically-triggered, isothermally responsive polymers: re-programming poly(oligoethylene glycols) to respond to phosphatase

Polymers which can respond to externally applied stimuli have found much application in the biomedical field due to their (reversible) coil–globule transitions. Polymers displaying a lower critical solution temperature are the most commonly used, but for blood-borne (i.e., soluble) biomedical applications the application of heat is not always possible, nor practical. Here we report the design and synthesis of poly(oligoethylene glycol methacrylate)-based polymers whose cloud points are easily varied by alkaline phosphatase-mediated dephosphorylation. By fine-tuning the density of phosphate groups on the backbone, it was possible to induce an isothermal transition: A change in solubility triggered by removal of a small number of phosphate esters from the side chains activating the LCST-type response. As there was no temperature change involved, this serves as a model of a cell-instructed polymer response. Finally, it was found that both polymers were non cytotoxic against MCF-7 cells (at 1 mg·mL–1), which confirms promise for biomedical applications.