Handling uncertainty in a medical study of dietary intake during pregnancy

This paper is concerned with handling uncertainty as part of the analysis of data from a medical study. The study is investigating connections between the birth weight of babies and the dietary intake of their mothers. Bayesian belief networks were used in the analysis. Their perceived benefits include (i) an ability to represent the evidence emerging from the evolving study, dealing effectively with the inherent uncertainty involved; (ii) providing a way of representing evidence graphically to facilitate analysis and communication with clinicians; (iii) helping in the exploration of the data to reveal undiscovered knowledge; and (iv) providing a means of developing an expert system application.

Knowledge-based risk assessment under uncertainty in engineering projects

In this paper we describe how an evidential-reasoner can be used as a component of risk assessment of engineering projects using a direct way of reasoning. Guan & Bell (1991) introduced this method by using the mass functions to express rule strengths. Mass functions are also used to express data strengths. The data and rule strengths are combined to get a mass distribution for each rule; i.e., the first half of our reasoning process. Then we combine the prior mass and the evidence from the different rules; i.e., the second half of the reasoning process. Finally, belief intervals are calculated to help in identifying the risks. We apply our evidential-reasoner on an engineering project and the results demonstrate the feasibility and applicability of this system in this environment.

Risk assessment of E-Commerce projects using evidential reasoning

The purpose of this study is to develop a decision making system to evaluate the risks in E-Commerce (EC) projects. Competitive software businesses have the critical task of assessing the risk in the software system development life cycle. This can be conducted on the basis of conventional probabilities, but limited appropriate information is available and so a complete set of probabilities is not available. In such problems, where the analysis is highly subjective and related to vague, incomplete, uncertain or inexact information, the Dempster-Shafer (DS) theory of evidence offers a potential advantage. We use a direct way of reasoning in a single step (i.e., extended DS theory) to develop a decision making system to evaluate the risk in EC projects. This consists of five stages 1) establishing knowledge base and setting rule strengths, 2) collecting evidence and data, 3) determining evidence and rule strength to a mass distribution for each rule; i.e., the first half of a single step reasoning process, 4) combining prior mass and different rules; i.e., the second half of the single step reasoning process, 5) finally, evaluating the belief interval for the best support decision of EC project. We test the system by using potential risk factors associated with EC development and the results indicate that the system is promising way of assisting an EC project manager in identifying potential risk factors and the corresponding project risks.

La cultura homérica en la Escenografía del Seiscientos: "Il Greco in Troia" y "La caduta del regno dell´Amazzoni"

Sería imposible hacer una enumeración de festejos, espectáculos y representaciones teatrales, que a lo largo de la época moderna, tuvieron como argumento las historias narradas por la literatura homérica. Incontables, pero todas ellas buscaban el don de la elocuencia que tenían desde que en la Antigüedad empezaron a reeditarse. Apenas un iglo después de la recopilación de relatos orales que quedaron hilvanados bajo los títulos de la Iliada y la Odisea –si se acepta la autoría de ese personaje mítico que fue Homero en torno al siglo VIII antes de Cristo–, tiranos y oligarcas atisbaron de forma visionaria las posibilidades que aportaban las tramas en las que se vieron envueltos dioses y héroes. La mitología olímpica no sólo sirvió al propósito de la unificación panhelénica de la nación de naciones que era Grecia, en torno a un mundo de creencias común en el marco de los grandes santuario, sino que además, las vicisitudes de los principales personajes, como Paris, Aquiles, Héctor, Ulises, Pentesilea, Eneas, Agamenón, Andrómaca, Casandra y Helena, proporcionaron un repertorio de modelos de conducta y un protocolo ceremonial en sociedad extremadamente útil. Piedad, fidelidad, excelencia, belleza, sumisión, virtudes morales que habían de “adornar” por igual a gobernantes y a ciudadanos, garantizaban un nuevo orden en la Hélade, constituyendo asimismo las notas distintivas con respecto a los anquilosados y monolíticos Imperios hegemónicos en la zona de Oriente Próximo, Egipcio y Babilónico o Persa, respectivamente. Se propone el análisis de la incidencia iconológica de tales asuntos a partir de la revisión escenográfica de dos libretos para dos representaciones teatrales italianas de finales del Seicento, de los que se encuentran sendos ejemplares en la Biblioteca Nacional de Madrid: Il Greco in Troia y La caduta del regno dell´amazzone.

Young Women’s Positive and Negative Perceptions of Self in Northern Ireland

This paper represents analysis of one aspect of a larger research project examining the everyday lives and experiences of young women in Northern Ireland. As an introductory exercise within focus groups, 48 young women considered and discussed the good and not so good things about being a young woman in Northern Ireland. Through these accounts many issues emerged, some in direct contrast and contradiction to one another. The area focused upon for the purpose of this paper is the body, particularly with regard to body image (self-expression versus pressure) and becoming a woman (growing up versus menarche). The aim is to illustrate that what young women cite as being potentially positive aspects of growing up or being a young woman often have negative experiences and implications attached to them. In light of the advancements made by young women in Northern Irish society, an opening of opportunities and their awareness of the persistence of gendered messages regarding their bodies, many young women are of the belief that such messages have less impact upon them today and that gender is a barrier that can be overcome. It is illustrated and argued here, however, that dominant cultural messages regarding women’s bodies are more subtle, confusing and perhaps pervasive than they ever have been. As a consequence, this has created more pressure and confusion for young women and tensions exist in terms of young women’s beliefs and their actions. In light of these research findings, this paper considers practice implications for those working with and for young women.

Once a Criminal, Always a Criminal?: ‘Redeemability’ and the Psychology of Punitive Public Attitudes

Several studies have sought to link punitive public attitudes to attribution style and/or lay theories of crime. This research finds that those who believe criminal acts are the result of freely chosen and willful behavior are more likely to be punitive than those who feel crime is the result of external circumstances and constraints. These analyses focus on only one dimension of attributions: locus of control (internal/external). In this analysis, we include a second dimension, thought to be a better predictor of attitudes in social psychological research: stability/instability. In addition to measuring lay theories of crime causation, we also test for “belief in redeemability” (or beliefs about the ability of deviants to change their ways). Our hypothesis is that this other dimension of personal attributions (stability/instability) may be as critical in explaining support for highly punitive criminal justice policies as beliefs about criminal responsibility. We find evidence supportive of this model in an analysis of data from postal survey of residents of six areas in England.

International order flows: Explaining equity and exchange rate returns

Macroeconomic models of equity and exchange rate returns perform poorly at high frequencies. The proportion of daily returns that these models explain is essentially zero. Instead of relying on macroeconomic determinants, we model equity price and exchange rate behavior based on a concept from microstructure – order flow. The international order flows are derived from belief changes of different investor groups in a two-country setting. We obtain a structural relationship between equity returns, exchange rate returns and their relationship to home and foreign equity market order flow. To test the model we construct daily aggregate order flow data from 800 million equity trades in the U.S. and France from 1999 to 2003. Almost 60% of the daily returns in the S&P100 index are explained jointly by exchange rate returns and aggregate order flows in both markets. As predicted by the model, daily exchange rate returns and order flow into the French market have significant incremental explanatory power for the daily S&P returns. The model implications are also validated for intraday returns.

Troubled Geographies: A Spatial History of Religion and Society in Ireland

Ireland’s landscape is marked by fault lines of religious, ethnic, and political identity that have shaped its troubled history. Troubled Geographies maps this history by detailing the patterns of change in Ireland from 16th century attempts to “plant” areas of Ireland with loyal English Protestants to defend against threats posed by indigenous Catholics, through the violence of the latter part of the 20th century and the rise of the “Celtic Tiger.” The book is concerned with how a geography laid down in the 16th and 17th centuries led to an amalgam based on religious belief, ethnic/national identity, and political conviction that continues to shape the geographies of modern Ireland. Troubled Geographies shows how changes in religious affiliation, identity, and territoriality have impacted Irish society during this period. It explores the response of society in general and religion in particular to major cultural shocks such as the Famine and to long term processes such as urbanization.

Disaggregating conservative Protestant groups in Northern Ireland: Overlapping categories and the importance of a born-again self-identification

Rather than treating conservative Protestantism as a homogenous phenomenon, recent literature has underlined the importance of disaggregating this group to illuminate important attitudinal and behavioral differences between conservative Protestants. However, the methods used to empirically operationalize conservative Protestantism have not always been able to capture variations within the groupings. Based on analysis of the 2004 Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey, we argue that religious self-identification is a more useful way of analyzing conservative Protestant subgroups than denomination or religious belief. We show that many of these identifications are overlapping, rather than stand-alone, religious group identifications. Moreover, the identification category of born-again has seldom been included in surveys. We find having a born-again identification to be a better predictor than the more frequently asked fundamentalist and evangelical categories of the religious and social beliefs that are seen as indicative of conservative Protestantism.

Ist patriotischer Nationalstolz wünschenswert? Eine differenzierte Analyse seiner psychologischen Bedeutung

Previous studies found that patriotic national pride (e.g., pride in democracy) - as opposed to nationalistic national pride (e.g., pride in being German) - has an attenuating effect on ethnocentrism, which is desirable from a democratic standpoint. Here it is hypothesized (1) that patriotic pride can be ascribed to the three components national identification, importance of democratic aspects of Germany, and belief in existence of democratic aspects of Germany, and (2) that these components exert in part conflicting effects on ethnocentrism and other variables. In two questionnaire studies (N-1 = 121, N-2 = 150) it is shown that (1) the three components do predict patriotic national pride and (2) the democratically desirable effects of patriotic pride trace back primarily to the importance of democratic aspects. In conclusion, from a democratic standpoint, it is positive valuation of democratic aspects and not patriotic pride that should be nurtured.

Zur kognitiven Konstruktion von (Un-)Gerechtigkeit militärischer Gewalt: Die moralische Beurteilung des Kosovo-Kriegs

With reference to the Kosovo war, we examined how the (un-)justness of military intervention is cognitively constructed. Four types of reinterpretation were hypothesized to relate to positive evaluation of the intervention: minimisation of negative consequences of NATO's intervention, denial of responsibility of the Western countries for the war, blame of Yugoslavia, and justification of the intervention through positive motives. As determinants of evaluation of the war, belief in a just world, militarism-pacifism, authoritarianism, and diffuse political support were taken into account. Hypotheses were tested with 165 university students using structural equation modelling. Consistent with our assumptions, the four types of reinterpretation related strongly to positive evaluation of the intervention, showing their relevance with regard to military intervention. Further, the assessed political attitudes influenced evaluation of the war while, contrary to predictions, belief in a just world did not. The causal status of the reinterpretations and the interplay of belief in a just world and political attitudes are discussed.

Background beliefs and evidence interpretation

In this paper we argue that it is often adaptive to use one’s background beliefs when interpreting information that, from a normative point of view, is incomplete. In both of the experiments reported here participants were presented with an item possessing two features and were asked to judge, in the light of some evidence concerning the features, to which of two categories it was more likely that the item belonged. It was found that when participants received evidence relevant to just one of these hypothesised categories (i.e. evidence that did not form a Bayesian likelihood ratio) they used their background beliefs to interpret this information. In Experiment 2, on the other hand, participants behaved in a broadly Bayesian manner when the evidence they received constituted a completed likelihood ratio. We discuss the circumstances under which participants, when making their judgements, consider the alternative hypothesis. We conclude with a discussion of the implications of our results for an understanding of hypothesis testing, belief revision, and categorisation.

Modelling Patient Duration of Stay to Facilitate Resource Management of Geriatric Hospitals

A fundamental aspect of health care management is the effective allocation of resources. This is of particular importance in geriatric hospitals where elderly patients tend to have more complex needs. Hospital managers would benefit immensely if they had advance knowledge of patient duration of stay in hospital. Managers could assess the costs of patient care and make allowances for these in their budget. In this paper, we tackle this important problem via a model which predicts the duration of stay distribution of patients in hospital. The approach uses phase-type distributions conditioned on a Bayesian belief network.

The circle in the relationship between space and body. Photo-essay based on Isidro Blasco and the BAPNE method

This article demonstrates a visual study on the educational space in which the teaching of body percussion is carried out in universities. The methodological framework is chosen by the Visual Arts Based Educational Research, using the work of an artist as a conceptual and methodological model. The research remains notable (1) due to the theoretical reference to the BAPNE method, (2) due to the visual reference to the work of Isidro Blasco – especially with the piece “Shanghai Planet 2009” - ;(3) due to the parallelisms established between the object of study in this investigation -the spatial analysis- and the focuses of interest revealed by the art critics in relation to the work of this artist. By means of a visual speech formed with 7 photo-collages the relationship between body and educational space is visualized in the basic disposition of circular learning. The visual constructions by way of photo-collage and their aesthetic charge brings us closer to the intimacy of the educational space, in the style in which it is distributed to the students in the music classroom, the materialization of interpersonal relationships, the occupied and empty volumes.

About infamy: the filthiness of Art and its diogenic disease

In this paper, we postulate the direct relationship that exists between waste production and artistic objects; its manufacturing system, consumption, and subsequent waste. What arises in this relationship then, is another character of interest –and that will serve as a reference to compare its modus operandi with the place of artists and the arts–, in this sick world, the Diogenes. The obsessed that lives among the garbage. The absurdity of the conquest of the infinite of the illogical within the logical. The amount clouded and blinded, nothing is enjoyed, nothing is appreciated; the countless abandons its place in the memory –memorable– and there only exists a pathological accumulation, mountains of garbage, desires to hold on to vital faith of the belief of doing Something for themselves. Working just to work and building something that will not last, like a sand castle, accumulation of detritus and dust. A new logic is born, the enjoyment of diseases and emptiness, the destruction of a world without a history. «Artists of the world, abandon! You have nothing to lose but your own professions!» (Kaprow, 2007, p. 37).