Twelve-month psychosis-predictive value of the ultra-high risk criteria in children and adolescents

Objective The validity of current ultra-high risk (UHR) criteria is under-examined in help-seeking minors, particularly, in children below the age of 12 years. Thus, the present study investigated predictors of one-year outcome in children and adolescents (CAD) with UHR status. Method Thirty-five children and adolescents (age 9–17 years) meeting UHR criteria according to the Structured Interview for Psychosis-Risk Syndromes were followed-up for 12 months. Regression analyses were employed to detect baseline predictors of conversion to psychosis and of outcome of non-converters (remission and persistence of UHR versus conversion). Results At one-year follow-up, 20% of patients had developed schizophrenia, 25.7% had remitted from their UHR status that, consequently, had persisted in 54.3%. No patient had fully remitted from mental disorders, even if UHR status was not maintained. Conversion was best predicted by any transient psychotic symptom and a disorganized communication score. No prediction model for outcome beyond conversion was identified. Conclusions Our findings provide the first evidence for the predictive utility of UHR criteria in CAD in terms of brief intermittent psychotic symptoms (BIPS) when accompanied by signs of cognitive impairment, i.e. disorganized communication. However, because attenuated psychotic symptoms (APS) related to thought content and perception were indicative of non-conversion at 1-year follow-up, their use in early detection of psychosis in CAD needs further study. Overall, the need for more in-depth studies into developmental peculiarities in the early detection and treatment of psychoses with an onset of illness in childhood and early adolescence was further highlighted.

Reference values for digital X-ray radiogrammetry parameters in children and adolescents in comparison to estimates in patients with distal radius fractures.

The first objective of this study was to determine normative digital X-ray radiogrammetry (DXR) values, based on original digital images, in a pediatric population (aged 6-18 years). The second aim was to compare these reference data with patients suffering from distal radius fractures, whereas both cohorts originated from the same geographical region and were evaluated using the same technical parameters as well as inclusion and exclusion criteria. DXR-BMD and DXR-MCI of the metacarpal bones II-IV were assessed on standardized digital hand radiographs, without printing or scanning procedures. DXR parameters were estimated separately by gender and among six age groups; values in the fracture group were compared to age- and gender-matched normative data using Student's t tests and Z scores. In the reference cohort (150 boys, 138 girls), gender differences were found in bone mineral density (DXR-BMD), with higher values for girls from 11 to 14 years and for boys from 15 to 18 years (p < 0.05). Girls had higher normative metacarpal index (DXR-MCI) values than boys, with significant differences at 11-14 years (p < 0.05). In the case-control investigation, the fracture group (95 boys, 69 girls) presented lower DXR-BMD at 15-18 years in boys and 13-16 years in girls vs. the reference cohort (p < 0.05); DXR-MCI was lower at 11-18 years in boys and 11-16 years in girls (p < 0.05). Mean Z scores in the fracture group for DXR-BMD were -0.42 (boys) and -0.46 (girls), and for DXR-MCI were -0.51 (boys) and -0.53 (girls). These findings indicate that the fully digital DXR technique can be accurately applied in pediatric populations ≥ 6 years of age. The lower DXR-BMD and DXR-MCI values in the fracture group suggest promising early identification of individuals with increased fracture risk, without the need for additional radiation exposure, enabling the initiation of prevention strategies to possibly reduce the incidence of osteoporosis later in life.

Body fat distribution and serum lipids in children and adolescents

Previous studies of normal children have linked body fat but not body fat distribution (BFD), to higher blood pressures, lipids, and insulin resistance (Berenson et al., 1988) BFD is a well-established risk factor for cardiovascular disease in adults (Björntorp, 1988). This study investigates the relation of BFD and serum lipids at baseline in children from Project HeartBeat!, a study of the growth and development of cardiovascular risk factors in 678 children in three cohorts measured initially at ages 8, 11, and 14 years. Initially, two of four indices of BFD were significantly related to the lipids: ratio of upper to lower body skinfolds (ln US:LS) and conicity (C Index). A factor analysis reduced the information in the serum lipids to two vectors: (1) total cholesterol + LDL-cholesterol and (2) HDL-cholesterol − triglycerides, which together accounted for 85% of the lipid variation. Using each serum lipid and vector as separate dependent variables, linear and quadratic regression models were constructed to examine the predictive ability of the two BFD variables, controlling for total body fat, gender, ethnicity (Black, non-Black) and maturation. Linear models provided an acceptable fit. Percent body fat (%BF) was a significant predictor in each and every lipid model, independent of age, maturation, or ethnicity (p ≤ 0.05). No BFD variable entered the equation for total or LDL-cholesterol, although there was a significant maturity by BFD interaction for LDL (ln US:LS was a significant predictor in more mature individuals). Both %BF and BFD (by way of Conicity) were significant predictors of HDL-cholesterol and triglycerides (p ≤ 0.01). All models were statistically significant at a high level (p ≤ 0.01), but adjusted R 2's for all models were low (0.05–0.15). Body fat distribution is a significant predictor of lipids in normal children, but secondarily to %BF, and for LDL-cholesterol in particular, the relation is dependent on maturity status. ^

Systematic review of interventions designed to reduce screen time in children and adolescents

This descriptive systematic review describes intervention trials for children and youth that targeted screen time (ST) as a way to prevent or control obesity and measured ST, and at least one of the following: physical activity, dietary intake, and adiposity. Both “hands-on” (e.g., video games) and “hands free” (e.g., television viewing) ST were included. Published, completed intervention trials (k=12), not-yet-published, completed trials (k=6), and in-progress trials (k=11) were identified through searches of electronic databases, including trial registries and bibliographies of eligible study reports. Study characteristics of the 29 identified trials were coded and presented in evidence tables. Considerable attention was paid to the type of ST addressed, measures used, and the type of interventions. Based on the number of in-progress and not-yet-published trials, the number of completed, published reports will double in the next three years. Most of the studies were funded by federal sources. General populations, not restricted by race, gender, or weight status, were targets of most interventions with children ages 9-12 yeas as the modal age group. Most trials used randomized control trials in which the majority of control or comparison group received an intervention. The mean number of participants was 242.8 (SD=314.7) and interventions were delivered over an average of 10.5 months and consisted of approximately 16 sessions, with a total time of about eight hours. The majority of completed trials evaluate each of the four constructs, however, most studies have more than one measure to assess each construct (e.g., BMI and tricep skinfold thickness to evaluate adiposity) and rarely did studies use the same measures. This is likely why the majority of studies produced at least one significant intervention effect on each outcome that was assessed. The four major outcomes should be evaluated in all interventions attempting to reduce screen time in order to determine the mechanisms involved that may contribute to obesity. More importantly researchers should work together to determine the best measures to evaluate the four main constructs to allow studies to be compared. Another area for consensus is the definition of ST. ^

Determining associations and assessing methodological issues in a case-control study of hazardous air pollutants and neural tube defects

Recent studies have reported positive associations between maternal exposures to air pollutants and several adverse birth outcomes. However, there have been no assessments of the association between environmental hazardous air pollutants (HAPs) such as benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylene (BTEX) and neural tube defects (NTDs) a common and serious group of congenital malformations. Before examining this association, two important methodological questions must be addressed: (1) is maternal residential movement likely to result in exposure misclassification and (2) is it appropriate to lump defects of the neural tube, such as anencephaly and spina bifida, into a composite disease endpoint (i.e., NTDs). ^ Data from the National Birth Defects Prevention Study and Texas Birth Defects Registry were used to: (1) assess the extent to which change of residence may result in exposure misclassification when exposure is based on the address at delivery; (2) formally assess heterogeneity of the associations between known risk factors for NTDs, using polytomous logistic regression; and (3) conduct a case-control study assessing the association between ambient air levels of BTEX and the risk of NTDs among offspring. ^ Regarding maternal residential mobility, this study suggests address at delivery was not significantly different from using address at conception when assigning quartile of benzene exposure (OR 1.0, 95% CI 0.9, 1.3). On the question of effect heterogeneity among NTDs, the effect estimates for infant sex P = 0.017), maternal body mass index P = 0.016), and folate supplementation P = 0.050) were significantly different for anencephaly and spina bifida, suggesting it is often more appropriate to assess potential risk factors among subgroups of NTDs. For the main study question on the association between environmental HAPs and NTDs, mothers who have offspring with isolated spina bifida are 2.4 times likely to live in areas with the highest benzene levels (95% CI 1.1, 5.0). However, no other significant associations were observed.^ This project is the first to include not only an assessment of the relationship between environmental levels of BTEX and NTDs, but also two separate studies addressing important methodological issues associated with this question. Our results contribute to the growing body of evidence regarding air pollutant exposure and adverse birth outcomes. ^

Effectiveness of dietary intervention in children and adolescents with elevated blood pressure

Hypertension is a known risk factor for cardiovascular disease in adults. Essential hypertension in children and adolescents is increasing in prevalence in the United States, and hypertension in children may track into adulthood. This increasing prevalence is attributed to the trends of increasing overweight and obese children and adolescents. Family history and being of African-American/black descent may predispose youth to elevated blood pressure. Interventions targeted to reduce and treat hypertension in youth include non-pharmaceutical interventions such as weight reduction, increased physical activity, and dietary changes and pharmaceutical treatment when indicated. The effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions is well documented in adults, but there are limited studies with regards to children and adolescents, specifically in the arena of dietary interventions. Lifestyle modifications such as dietary interventions are the mainstay of recommended treatment for those children and adolescents with prehypertension or stage 1 hypertension. Given the association of being overweight and hypertension, efficacy of dietary interventions are of interest because of reduced cost, easy implementation and potential for multiple beneficial outcomes such as reduced weight and reduction of other metabolic or cardiovascular derangements. Barriers to dietary interventions often include socioeconomic status, ethnicity, personal, and external factors. The goal of this systematic review of the literature is to identify interventions targeted to children and adolescents that focus on recommended dietary changes related to blood pressure. Dietary interventions found for this review mostly focused on a particular nutrient or food group with the one notable exception that focused on the DASH pattern of eating. The effects of the interventions on blood pressure varied, but overall dietary modifications can be achieved in youth and can serve a role in producing positive outcomes on blood pressure. Increasing potassium and following a DASH diet seemed to provide the most clinically significant results. Further studies are still needed to evaluate long-term effectiveness and to contribute more supporting evidence for particular modifications in these age cohorts.^

Does exhaled nitric oxide predict asthma exacerbation in children?

Asthma is a chronic complex disorder of the respiratory tract that affects millions of people globally, a large percentage of which are children. Triggered by a host of factors such as allergens and changes in temperature, the pathophysiologic and clinical indices vary among patients and have contributed to difficulties in overall management of asthma. Shortly after exhaled nitric oxide (eNO) was discovered in higher concentrations in asthma patients, it was shown to be superior to other markers such as PEFR, FEV1 and sputum eosinophils in screening asthma patients. Studies have also noted promising results regarding the use of eNO to predict asthma exacerbation in adults while in children, asthma symptoms have been observed to be good predictors of asthma exacerbation. Currently however, the potential of eNO as a predictor of asthma exacerbation in children is yet to be examined. The objective of this study was to assess eNO potential to predict asthma exacerbation in children by examining the relationship between eNO and changes in pulmonary function, asthma symptoms and rescue medication use.^ The primary study "Air Toxics and Asthma in Children" (ATAC), recruited children aged 9 to 14 years with labile persistent asthma diagnosed at least one year earlier. The data obtained from 30 study participants, included exhaled nitric oxide concentration, PEFR, FEV1, asthma symptoms and frequency of emergency medication use.^ Descriptive statistics, Pearson's and Spearman's correlation tests were followed by a simple linear regression in which eNO was the independent (predictor) variable while FEV1, PEFR, asthma symptoms and frequency of emergency medication use were the dependent (outcome) variables.^ Results showed that eNO was associated with percent change in FEV1, day time wheeze, night time shortness of breath, but correlated only weakly with PEFR, amplitude percent of mean PEFR, FEV1, percent change in FEV1 and asthma symptoms.^ Further research is imperative to better define the role of eNO and understand intrinsic pathologic mechanisms towards asthma management in children.^

A descriptive study of the sociodemographic, health and developmental factors associated with slow learning in children from upper to middle social class families in Texas

"Slow Learners" is a term used to describe children with an IQ range of 70-89 on a standardized individual intelligence test (i.e. with a standard deviation of either 15 or 16). They have above retarded, but below average intelligence and potential to learn. If the factors associated with the etiology of slow learning in children can be identified, it may be possible to hypothesize causal relationships which can be tested by intervention studies specifically designed to prevent slow learning. If effective, these may ultimately reduce the incidence of school dropouts and their cost to society. To date, there is little information about variables which may be etiologically significant. In an attempt to identify such etiologic factors this study examines the sociodemographic characteristics, prenatal history (hypertension, smoking, infections, medication, vaginal bleeding, etc.), natal history (length of delivery, Apgar score, birth trauma, resuscitation, etc.), neonatal history (infections, seizures, head trauma, etc.), developmental history (health problems, developmental milestones and growth during infancy and early childhood), and family history (educational level of the parents, occupation, history of similar condition in the family, etc.) of a series of children defined as slow learners. The study is limited to children from middle to high socioeconomic families in order to exclude the possible confounding variable of low socioeconomic status, and because a descriptive study of this group has not been previously reported. ^

The use of the computerized and revised vital record in conducting etiologic studies on neural tube defects

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the adequacy of computerized vital records in Texas for conducting etiologic studies on neural tube defects (NTDs), using the revised and expanded National Centers for Health Statistics vital record forms introduced in Texas in 1989.^ Cases of NTDs (anencephaly and spina bifida) among Harris County (Houston) residents were identified from the computerized birth and death records for 1989-1991. The validity of the system was then measured against cases ascertained independently through medical records and death certificates. The computerized system performed poorly in its identification of NTDs, particularly for anencephaly, where the false positive rate was 80% with little or no improvement over the 3-year period. For both NTDs the sensitivity and predictive value positive of the tapes were somewhat higher for Hispanic than non-Hispanic mothers.^ Case control studies were conducted utilizing the tape set and the independently verified data set, using controls selected from the live birth tapes. Findings varied widely between the data sets. For example, the anencephaly odds ratio for Hispanic mothers (vs. non-Hispanic) was 1.91 (CI = 1.38-2.65) for the tape file, but 3.18 (CI = 1.81-5.58) for verified records. The odds ratio for diabetes was elevated for the tape set (OR = 3.33, CI = 1.67-6.66) but not for verified cases (OR = 1.09, CI = 0.24-4.96), among whom few mothers were diabetic. It was concluded that computerized tapes should not be solely relied on for NTD studies.^ Using the verified cases, Hispanic mother was associated with spina bifida, and Hispanic mother, teen mother, and previous pregnancy terminations were associated with anencephaly. Mother's birthplace, education, parity, and diabetes were not significant for either NTD.^ Stratified analyses revealed several notable examples of statistical interaction. For anencephaly, strong interaction was observed between Hispanic origin and trimester of first prenatal care.^ The prevalence was 3.8 per 10,000 live births for anencephaly and 2.0 for spina bifida (5.8 per 10,000 births for the combined categories). ^

Planning and implementation efficacy as a determinant of health risk communication outcomes: Case studies of the U.S. Public Health Service (PHS)

This study was conducted under the auspices of the Subcommittee on Risk Communication and Education of the Committee to Coordinate Environmental Health and Related Programs (CCEHRP) to determine how Public Health Service (PHS) agencies are communicating information about health risk, what factors contributed to effective communication efforts, and what specific principles, strategies, and practices best promote more effective health risk communication outcomes.^ Member agencies of the Subcommittee submitted examples of health risk communication activities or decisions they perceived to be effective and some examples of cases they thought had not been as effective as desired. Of the 10 case studies received, 7 were submitted as examples of effective health risk communication, and 3, as examples of less effective communication.^ Information contained in the 10 case studies describing the respective agencies' health risk communication strategies and practices was compared with EPA's Seven Cardinal Rules of Risk Communication, since similar rules were not found in any PHS agency. EPA's rules are: (1) Accept and involve the public as a legitimate partner. (2) Plan carefully and evaluate your efforts. (3) Listen to the public's specific concerns. (4) Be honest, frank, and open. (5) Coordinate and collaborate with other credible sources. (6) Meet the needs of the media. (7) Speak clearly and with compassion.^ On the basis of case studies analysis, the Subcommittee, in their attempts to design and implement effective health risk communication campaigns, identified a number of areas for improvement among the agencies. First, PHS agencies should consider developing a focus specific to health risk communication (i.e., office or specialty resource). Second, create a set of generally accepted practices and guidelines for effective implementation and evaluation of PHS health risk communication activities and products. Third, organize interagency initiatives aimed at increasing awareness and visibility of health risk communication issues and trends within and between PHS agencies.^ PHS agencies identified some specific implementation strategies the CCEHRP might consider pursuing to address the major recommendations. Implementation strategies common to PHS agencies emerged in the following five areas: (1) program development, (2) building partnerships, (3) developing training, (4) expanding information technologies, and (5) conducting research and evaluation. ^

Attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder symptoms and lead exposure in children: A systematic review of literature

Blood lead levels > 10 µg/dL are known to affect various areas of the brain that influence behavior and cause many other health problems in children. As a result, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) set the blood lead action level at 10 µg/dL. However, recent research provides evidence that blood lead levels <10 µg/dL also may lead to behavioral problems in children. With the recent increase in diagnosis of Attention-Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) in children in the U.S. it is important to determine possible environmental toxins such as lead that may play a role in causing ADHD symptoms. The aim of this systematic review of the literature was to identify recent published studies that examine an association between blood lead levels < 10 µg/dL and ADHD symptoms in children in order to summarize their findings and describe major gaps in the literature. Although available research is limited, the articles reviewed indicate that blood lead at levels much below the CDC action level of 10 µg/dL may affect a child's level of attention, hyperactivity, impulsivity and ADHD diagnosis. Additional prospective research is warranted in order to inform the revision of current blood lead action levels as well as better elucidate the relationship between lead and ADHD diagnoses.^

Longitudinal and logistic analysis of endocrine hormone profiles, physical maturation, and candidate genes related to pubertal events in children

Children who experience early pubertal development have an increased risk of developing cancer (breast, ovarian, and testicular), osteoporosis, insulin resistance, and obesity as adults. Early pubertal development has been associated with depression, aggressiveness, and increased sexual prowess. Possible explanations for the decline in age of pubertal onset include genetics, exposure to environmental toxins, better nutrition, and a reduction in childhood infections. In this study we (1) evaluated the association between 415 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) from hormonal pathways and early puberty, defined as menarche prior to age 12 in females and Tanner Stage 2 development prior to age 11 in males, and (2) measured endocrine hormone trajectories (estradiol, testosterone, and DHEAS) in relation to age, race, and Tanner Stage in a cohort of children from Project HeartBeat! At the end of the 4-year study, 193 females had onset of menarche and 121 males had pubertal staging at age 11. African American females had a younger mean age at menarche than Non-Hispanic White females. African American females and males had a lower mean age at each pubertal stage (1-5) than Non-Hispanic White females and males. African American females had higher mean BMI measures at each pubertal stage than Non-Hispanic White females. Of the 415 SNPs evaluated in females, 22 SNPs were associated with early menarche, when adjusted for race ( p<0.05), but none remained significant after adjusting for multiple testing by False Discovery Rate (p<0.00017). In males, 17 SNPs were associated with early pubertal development when adjusted for race (p<0.05), but none remained significant when adjusted for multiple testing (p<0.00017). ^ There were 4955 hormone measurements taken during the 4-year study period from 632 African American and Non-Hispanic White males and females. On average, African American females started and ended the pubertal process at a younger age than Non-Hispanic White females. The mean age of Tanner Stage 2 breast development in African American and Non-Hispanic White females was 9.7 (S.D.=0.8) and 10.2 (S.D.=1.1) years, respectively. There was a significant difference by race in mean age for each pubertal stage, except Tanner Stage 1 for pubic hair development. Both Estradiol and DHEAS levels in females varied significantly with age, but not by race. Estradiol and DHEAS levels increased from Tanner Stage 1 to Tanner Stage 5.^ African American males had a lower mean age at each Tanner Stage of development than Non-Hispanic White males. The mean age of Tanner Stage 2 genital development in African American and Non-Hispanic White males was 10.5 (S.D.=1.1) and 10.8 (S.D.=1.1) years, respectively, but this difference was not significant (p=0.11). Testosterone levels varied significantly with age and race. Non-Hispanic White males had higher levels of testosterone than African American males from Tanner Stage 1-4. Testosterone levels increased for both races from Tanner Stage 1 to Tanner Stage 5. Testosterone levels had the steepest increase from ages 11-15 for both races. DHEAS levels in males varied significantly with age, but not by race. DHEAS levels had the steepest increase from ages 14-17. ^ In conclusion, African American males and females experience pubertal onset at a younger age than Non-Hispanic White males and females, but in this study, we could not find a specific gene that explained the observed variation in age of pubertal onset. Future studies with larger study populations may provide a better understanding of the contribution of genes in early pubertal onset.^

Epidemiology of Acute Lung Injury and Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome in children in Vietnam

Acute Lung Injury (ALI) and Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS) are life- threatening disorders that can result from many severe conditions and diseases. Since the American European Consensus Conference established the internationally accepted definition of ALI and ARDS, the epidemiology of pediatric ALI/ARDS has been described in some developed countries. In the developing world, however, there are very few data available regarding the burden, etiologies, management, outcome, and factors associated with outcomes of ALI/ARDS in children. ^ Therefore, we conducted this observational, clinical study to estimate the prevalence and case mortality rate of ALI/ARDS among a cohort of patients admitted to the pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) of the National Hospital of Pediatrics in Hanoi, the largest children's hospital in Vietnam. Etiologies and predisposing factors, and management strategies for pediatric ALI/ARDS were described. In addition, we determined the prevalence of HIV infection among children with ALI/ARDS in Vietnam. We also identified the causes of mortality and predictors of mortality and prolonged mechanical ventilation of children with ALI/ARDS. ^ A total of 1,051 patients consecutively admitted to the pediatric intensive care unit from January 2011 to January 2012 were screened daily for development of ALI/ARDS using the American-European Consensus Conference Guidelines. All identified patients with ALI/ARDS were followed until hospital discharge or death in the hospital. Patients' demographic and clinical data were collected. Multivariable logistic regression models were developed to identify independent predictors of mortality and other adverse outcome of ALI/ARDS. ^ Prevalence of ALI and ARDS was 9.6% (95% confidence interval, 7.8% to 11.4%) and 8.8% (95% confidence interval, 7.0% to 10.5%) of total PICU admissions, respectively. Infectious pneumonia and sepsis were the most common causes of ALI/ARDS accounting for 60.4% and 26.7% of cases, respectively. Prevalence of HIV infection among children with ALI/ARDS was 3.0%. The case fatality rate of ALI/ARDS was 63.4% (95% confidence interval, 53.8% to 72.9%). Multiple organ failure and refractory hypoxemia were the main causes of death. Independent predictors of mortality and prolonged mechanical ventilation were male gender, duration of intensive care stay prior to ALI/ARDS diagnosis, level of oxygenation defect measured by PaO2/FiO2 ratio at ALI/ARDS diagnosis, presence of non-pulmonary organ dysfunction at day one and day three after ALI/ARDS diagnosis, and presence of hospital acquired infection. ^ The results of this study demonstrated that ALI/ARDS was a common and severe condition in children in Vietnam. The level of both pulmonary and non-pulmonary organ damage influenced survival of patients with ALI/ARDS. Strategies for preventing ALI/ARDS and for clinical management of the disease are necessary to reduce the associated risks.^

Data quality in trauma transfusion studies and the impact of missing data on predicting massive transfusion

Maximizing data quality may be especially difficult in trauma-related clinical research. Strategies are needed to improve data quality and assess the impact of data quality on clinical predictive models. This study had two objectives. The first was to compare missing data between two multi-center trauma transfusion studies: a retrospective study (RS) using medical chart data with minimal data quality review and the PRospective Observational Multi-center Major Trauma Transfusion (PROMMTT) study with standardized quality assurance. The second objective was to assess the impact of missing data on clinical prediction algorithms by evaluating blood transfusion prediction models using PROMMTT data. RS (2005-06) and PROMMTT (2009-10) investigated trauma patients receiving ≥ 1 unit of red blood cells (RBC) from ten Level I trauma centers. Missing data were compared for 33 variables collected in both studies using mixed effects logistic regression (including random intercepts for study site). Massive transfusion (MT) patients received ≥ 10 RBC units within 24h of admission. Correct classification percentages for three MT prediction models were evaluated using complete case analysis and multiple imputation based on the multivariate normal distribution. A sensitivity analysis for missing data was conducted to estimate the upper and lower bounds of correct classification using assumptions about missing data under best and worst case scenarios. Most variables (17/33=52%) had <1% missing data in RS and PROMMTT. Of the remaining variables, 50% demonstrated less missingness in PROMMTT, 25% had less missingness in RS, and 25% were similar between studies. Missing percentages for MT prediction variables in PROMMTT ranged from 2.2% (heart rate) to 45% (respiratory rate). For variables missing >1%, study site was associated with missingness (all p≤0.021). Survival time predicted missingness for 50% of RS and 60% of PROMMTT variables. MT models complete case proportions ranged from 41% to 88%. Complete case analysis and multiple imputation demonstrated similar correct classification results. Sensitivity analysis upper-lower bound ranges for the three MT models were 59-63%, 36-46%, and 46-58%. Prospective collection of ten-fold more variables with data quality assurance reduced overall missing data. Study site and patient survival were associated with missingness, suggesting that data were not missing completely at random, and complete case analysis may lead to biased results. Evaluating clinical prediction model accuracy may be misleading in the presence of missing data, especially with many predictor variables. The proposed sensitivity analysis estimating correct classification under upper (best case scenario)/lower (worst case scenario) bounds may be more informative than multiple imputation, which provided results similar to complete case analysis.^

Case studies of the effects of a total solar eclipse on weather with varying degrees of cloud cover using a local numerical weather prediction model

The importance of renewable energies for the European electricity market is growing rapidly. This presents transmission grids and the power market in general with new challenges which stem from the higher spatiotemporal variability of power generation. This uncertainty is due to the fact that renewable power production results from weather phenomena, thus making it difficult to plan and control. We present a sensitivity study of a total solar eclipse in central Europe in March. The weather in Germany and Europe was modeled using the German Weather Service's local area models COSMO-DE and COSMO-EU, respectively (http://www.cosmo-model.org/). The simulations were performed with and without considering a solar eclipse for the following 3 situations: 1. An idealized, clear-sky situation for the entire model area (Europe, COSMO-EU) 2. A real weather situation with mostly cloudy skies (Germany, COSMO-DE) 3. A real weather situation with mostly clear skies (Germany, COSMO-DE) The data should help to evaluate the effects of a total solar eclipse on the weather in the planetary boundary layer. The results show that a total solar eclipse has significant effects particularly on the main variables for renewable energy production, such as solar irradiation and temperature near the ground.