Fossil resource depletion and climate change emissions: the role of physical constrictions

[spa] En lo que concierne al cambio climático, los pronósticos de cercanos picos de combustible fósiles parecen buenas noticias pues la mayoría de las emisiones proceden de la quema de combustibles fósiles. Sin embargo, esto podría resultar engañoso de confirmarse las enormes estimaciones de reservas de carbón pues puede divisarse un intercambio de combustible fósiles con baja concentración de carbono (petróleo y gas) por otros de mayor (carbón). Ciñéndonos a esta hipótesis desarrollamos escenarios donde tan pronto el petróleo y el gas natural alcanzan su cénit la extracción de carbón crece lo necesario para compensar el descenso de los primeros. Estimamos las emisiones que se deriva de tales supuestos y las comparamos con el peor escenario del IPCC. Si bien dicho escenario parece improbable concluimos que los picos de petróleo y gas no son suficientes para evitar peligrosas sendas de gases de efecto invernadero. Las concentraciones de CO2 halladas superan con creces las 450 ppm sin signos de remisión.

Identifying the best body mass index metric to assess adiposity change in children.

OBJECTIVE: Although dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DEXA) is the preferred method to estimate adiposity, body mass index (BMI) is often used as a proxy. However, the ability of BMI to measure adiposity change among youth is poorly evidenced. This study explored which metrics of BMI change have the highest correlations with different metrics of DEXA change. METHODS: Data were from the Quebec Adipose and Lifestyle Investigation in Youth cohort, a prospective cohort of children (8-10 years at recruitment) from Québec, Canada (n=557). Height and weight were measured by trained nurses at baseline (2008) and follow-up (2010). Metrics of BMI change were raw (ΔBMIkg/m(2) ), adjusted for median BMI (ΔBMIpercentage) and age-sex-adjusted with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention growth curves expressed as centiles (ΔBMIcentile) or z-scores (ΔBMIz-score). Metrics of DEXA change were raw (total fat mass; ΔFMkg), per cent (ΔFMpercentage), height-adjusted (fat mass index; ΔFMI) and age-sex-adjusted z-scores (ΔFMz-score). Spearman's rank correlations were derived. RESULTS: Correlations ranged from modest (0.60) to strong (0.86). ΔFMkg correlated most highly with ΔBMIkg/m(2) (r = 0.86), ΔFMI with ΔBMIkg/m(2) and ΔBMIpercentage (r = 0.83-0.84), ΔFMz-score with ΔBMIz-score (r = 0.78), and ΔFMpercentage with ΔBMIpercentage (r = 0.68). Correlations with ΔBMIcentile were consistently among the lowest. CONCLUSIONS: In 8-10-year-old children, absolute or per cent change in BMI is a good proxy for change in fat mass or FMI, and BMI z-score change is a good proxy for FM z-score change. However change in BMI centile and change in per cent fat mass perform less well and are not recommended.

Transitional effects of a pension system change in Spain

This paper studies the output effects, transition costs and the change in pension benefits derived from the substitution of the current unfunded pension system by a fully funded pension system financed through mandatory savings.These effects are estimated by using reduced versions of the neoclassical and endogenous growth frameworks. Because of the greater capital accumulation during the transition phase, final output increases by 23,6% (neoclassicalframework); and a 24,5-31,5% (endogenous growth framework). The initial revenue loss for the government would represent a 4,8% of the GDP, raising very slowly during the transition period. Given the new growth rates, rates of return ofphysical capital, and financial intermediation costs, we have that the capitalization pension benefits obtained by all 30-contribution-year worker would be more than twice than those that guarantee the financial sustainability of thepublic pension system

French version of the Family Attitude Scale: Psychometric properties and relation of attitudes to the respondent's psychiatric status.

The Family Attitude Scale (FAS) is a self-report measure of critical or hostile attitudes and behaviors towards another family member, and demonstrates an ability to predict relapse in psychoses. Data are not currently available on a French version of the scale. The present study developed a French version of the FAS, using a large general population sample to test its internal structure, criterion validity and relationships with the respondents' symptoms and psychiatric diagnoses, and examined the reciprocity of FAS ratings by respondents and their partners. A total of 2072 adults from an urban population undertook a diagnostic interview and completed self-report measures, including an FAS about their partner. A subset of participants had partners who also completed the FAS. Confirmatory factor analyses revealed an excellent fit by a single-factor model, and the FAS demonstrated a strong association with dyadic adjustment. FAS scores of respondents were affected by their anxiety levels and mood, alcohol and anxiety diagnoses, and moderate reciprocity of attitudes and behaviors between the partners was seen. The French version of the FAS has similarly strong psychometric properties to the original English version. Future research should assess the ability of the French FAS to predict relapse of psychiatric disorders.

Entropy change of martensitic transformations in Cu-based shape-memory alloys

We have investigated the different contributions to the entropy change at the martensitic transition of different families of Cu-based shape-memory alloys. The total entropy change has been obtained through calorimetric measurements. By measuring the evolution of the magnetic susceptibility with temperature, the entropy change associated with conduction electrons has been evaluated. The contribution of the anharmonic vibrations of the lattice has also been estimated using various parameters associated with the anharmonic behavior of these alloys, collected from the literature. The results found in the present work have been compared to values published for the martensitic transition of group-IV metals. For Cu-based alloys, both electron and anharmonic contributions have been shown to be much smaller than the overall entropy change. This finding demonstrates that the harmonic vibrations of the lattice are the most relevant contribution to the stability of the bcc phase in Cu-based alloys.

Entropy change and magnetocaloric effect in Gd5(SixGe1-x)4

Isothermal magnetization curves up to 23 T have been measured in Gd5Si1.8Ge2.2. We show that the values of the entropy change at the first-order magnetostructural transition, obtained from the Clausius-Clapeyron equation and the Maxwell relation, are coincident, provided the Maxwell relation is evaluated only within the transition region and the maximum applied field is high enough to complete the transition. These values are also in agreement with the entropy change obtained from differential scanning calorimetry. We also show that a simple phenomenological model based on the temperature and field dependence of the magnetization accounts for these results.

Magnetic field induced entropy change and magnetoelasticity in Ni-Mn-Ga alloys

The magnetocaloric effect that originates from the martensitic transition in the ferromagnetic Ni-Mn-Gashape-memory alloy is studied. We show that this effect is controlled by the magnetostructural coupling at boththe martensitic variant and magnetic domain length scales. A large entropy change induced by moderatemagnetic fields is obtained for alloys in which the magnetic moment of the two structural phases is not verydifferent. We also show that this entropy change is not associated with the entropy difference between themartensitic and the parent phase arising from the change in the crystallographic structure which has beenfound to be independent of the magnetic field within this range of fields.