Poisson, Poisson-gamma and zero-inflated regression models of motor vehicle crashes: balancing statistical fit and theory

There has been considerable research conducted over the last 20 years focused on predicting motor vehicle crashes on transportation facilities. The range of statistical models commonly applied includes binomial, Poisson, Poisson-gamma (or negative binomial), zero-inflated Poisson and negative binomial models (ZIP and ZINB), and multinomial probability models. Given the range of possible modeling approaches and the host of assumptions with each modeling approach, making an intelligent choice for modeling motor vehicle crash data is difficult. There is little discussion in the literature comparing different statistical modeling approaches, identifying which statistical models are most appropriate for modeling crash data, and providing a strong justification from basic crash principles. In the recent literature, it has been suggested that the motor vehicle crash process can successfully be modeled by assuming a dual-state data-generating process, which implies that entities (e.g., intersections, road segments, pedestrian crossings, etc.) exist in one of two states—perfectly safe and unsafe. As a result, the ZIP and ZINB are two models that have been applied to account for the preponderance of “excess” zeros frequently observed in crash count data. The objective of this study is to provide defensible guidance on how to appropriate model crash data. We first examine the motor vehicle crash process using theoretical principles and a basic understanding of the crash process. It is shown that the fundamental crash process follows a Bernoulli trial with unequal probability of independent events, also known as Poisson trials. We examine the evolution of statistical models as they apply to the motor vehicle crash process, and indicate how well they statistically approximate the crash process. We also present the theory behind dual-state process count models, and note why they have become popular for modeling crash data. A simulation experiment is then conducted to demonstrate how crash data give rise to “excess” zeros frequently observed in crash data. It is shown that the Poisson and other mixed probabilistic structures are approximations assumed for modeling the motor vehicle crash process. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that under certain (fairly common) circumstances excess zeros are observed—and that these circumstances arise from low exposure and/or inappropriate selection of time/space scales and not an underlying dual state process. In conclusion, carefully selecting the time/space scales for analysis, including an improved set of explanatory variables and/or unobserved heterogeneity effects in count regression models, or applying small-area statistical methods (observations with low exposure) represent the most defensible modeling approaches for datasets with a preponderance of zeros

Differences in the performance of safety performance functions estimated for total crash count and for crash count by crash type

In recent years the development and use of crash prediction models for roadway safety analyses have received substantial attention. These models, also known as safety performance functions (SPFs), relate the expected crash frequency of roadway elements (intersections, road segments, on-ramps) to traffic volumes and other geometric and operational characteristics. A commonly practiced approach for applying intersection SPFs is to assume that crash types occur in fixed proportions (e.g., rear-end crashes make up 20% of crashes, angle crashes 35%, and so forth) and then apply these fixed proportions to crash totals to estimate crash frequencies by type. As demonstrated in this paper, such a practice makes questionable assumptions and results in considerable error in estimating crash proportions. Through the use of rudimentary SPFs based solely on the annual average daily traffic (AADT) of major and minor roads, the homogeneity-in-proportions assumption is shown not to hold across AADT, because crash proportions vary as a function of both major and minor road AADT. For example, with minor road AADT of 400 vehicles per day, the proportion of intersecting-direction crashes decreases from about 50% with 2,000 major road AADT to about 15% with 82,000 AADT. Same-direction crashes increase from about 15% to 55% for the same comparison. The homogeneity-in-proportions assumption should be abandoned, and crash type models should be used to predict crash frequency by crash type. SPFs that use additional geometric variables would only exacerbate the problem quantified here. Comparison of models for different crash types using additional geometric variables remains the subject of future research.

Proof of causation in informed consent cases : establishing what the plaintiff would have done

A degree of judicial caution in accepting the assertion of a plaintiff as to what he or she would have done, if fully informed of risks, is clearly evident upon a review of decisions applying the common law. Civil liability legislation in some jurisdictions now precludes assertion evidence by a plaintiff. Although this legislative change was seen as creating a significant challenge for plaintiffs seeking to discharge the onus of proof of establishing causation in such cases, recent decisions suggest a more limited practical effect. While a plaintiff’s ex post facto assertions as to what he or she would have done if fully informed of risks may now be inadmissible, objective and subjective evidence as to the surrounding facts and circumstances, in particular the plaintiff’s prior attitudes and conduct, and the assertion evidence of others remains admissible. Given the court’s reliance on both objective and subjective evidence, statistical evidence may be of increasing importance.

A study of heuristic approach on station track allocation in mainline railways

Station track allocation is the critical component in the overall railway timetabling. Because of its intrinsic complexity and lack of modeling on station track layouts and train movement within station, analytical approach to attain optimal solution is not feasible. This study investigates the possibilities of applying a heuristic approach and identifies possible difficulties in practice. It is the first and important step to resolve one of the burning issues in the mainline railway operation in China.

Application of reinforcement learning in an open railway access market price negotiation

In an open railway access market price negotiation, it is feasible to achieve higher cost recovery by applying the principles of price discrimination. The price negotiation can be modeled as an optimization problem of revenue intake. In this paper, we present the pricing negotiation based on reinforcement learning model. A negotiated-price setting technique based on agent learning is introduced, and the feasible applications of the proposed method for open railway access market simulation are discussed.

Modelling issues on the railway resource management process using multi-agent system

Many infrastructure and necessity systems such as electricity and telecommunication in Europe and the Northern America were used to be operated as monopolies, if not state-owned. However, they have now been disintegrated into a group of smaller companies managed by different stakeholders. Railways are no exceptions. Since the early 1980s, there have been reforms in the shape of restructuring of the national railways in different parts of the world. Continuous refinements are still conducted to allow better utilisation of railway resources and quality of service. There has been a growing interest for the industry to understand the impacts of these reforms on the operation efficiency and constraints. A number of post-evaluations have been conducted by analysing the performance of the stakeholders on their profits (Crompton and Jupe 2003), quality of train service (Shaw 2001) and engineering operations (Watson 2001). Results from these studies are valuable for future improvement in the system, followed by a new cycle of post-evaluations. However, direct implementation of these changes is often costly and the consequences take a long period of time (e.g. years) to surface. With the advance of fast computing technologies, computer simulation is a cost-effective means to evaluate a hypothetical change in a system prior to actual implementation. For example, simulation suites have been developed to study a variety of traffic control strategies according to sophisticated models of train dynamics, traction and power systems (Goodman, Siu and Ho 1998, Ho and Yeung 2001). Unfortunately, under the restructured railway environment, it is by no means easy to model the complex behaviour of the stakeholders and the interactions between them. Multi-agent system (MAS) is a recently developed modelling technique which may be useful in assisting the railway industry to conduct simulations on the restructured railway system. In MAS, a real-world entity is modelled as a software agent that is autonomous, reactive to changes, able to initiate proactive actions and social communicative acts. It has been applied in the areas of supply-chain management processes (García-Flores, Wang and Goltz 2000, Jennings et al. 2000a, b) and e-commerce activities (Au, Ngai and Parameswaran 2003, Liu and You 2003), in which the objectives and behaviour of the buyers and sellers are captured by software agents. It is therefore beneficial to investigate the suitability or feasibility of applying agent modelling in railways and the extent to which it might help in developing better resource management strategies. This paper sets out to examine the benefits of using MAS to model the resource management process in railways. Section 2 first describes the business environment after the railway 2 Modelling issues on the railway resource management process using MAS reforms. Then the problems emerge from the restructuring process are identified in section 3. Section 4 describes the realisation of a MAS for railway resource management under the restructured scheme and the feasible studies expected from the model.

Stakeholder engagement by governance networks

As the problems involving infrastructure delivery have become more complex and contentious, there has been an acknowledgement that these problems cannot be resolved by any one body working alone. This understanding has driven multi-sectoral collaboration and has led to an expansion of the set of actors, including stakeholders, who are now involved in delivery of infrastructure projects and services. However, more needs to be understood about how to include stakeholders in these processes and ways of developing the requisite combination of stakeholders to achieve effective outcomes. This thesis draws on stakeholder theory and governance network theory to obtain insights into how three multi-level networks within the Roads Alliance in Queensland engage with stakeholders in the delivery of complex and sensitive infrastructure services and projects. New knowledge about stakeholders will be obtained by testing a model of Stakeholder Salience and Engagement which combines and extends the stakeholder identification and salience theory, ladder of stakeholder management and engagement and the model of stakeholder engagement and moral treatment of stakeholders. By applying this model, the broad research question: “Who or what decides how stakeholders are engaged by governance networks delivering public outcomes?” will be addressed. The case studies will test a theoretical model of stakeholder salience and engagement which links strategic decisions about stakeholder salience with the quality and quantity of engagement strategies for engaging different types of stakeholders. A multiple embedded case study design has been selected as the overall approach to explore, describe, explain and evaluate how stakeholder engagement occurs in three governance networks delivering road infrastructure in Queensland. The research design also incorporates a four stage approach to data collection: observations, stakeholder analysis, telephone survey questionnaire and semi-structured interviews. The outcomes of this research will contribute to and extend stakeholder theory by showing how stakeholder salience impacts on decisions about the types of engagement processes implemented. Governance network theory will be extended by showing how governance networks interact with stakeholders through the concepts of stakeholder salience and engagement. From a practical perspective this research will provide governance networks with an indication of how to optimise engagement with different types of stakeholders. 2

Enhancing acoustic emission signals from multi-cylinder diesel engine

This paper presents techniques which can be viewed as pre-processing step towards diagnosis of faults in a small size multi-cylinder diesel engine. Preliminary analysis of the acoustic emission (AE) signals is outlined, including time-frequency analysis, selection of optimum frequency band. Some results of applying mean field independent component analysis (MFICA) to separate the AE root mean square (RMS) signals are also outlined. The results on separation of RMS signals show this technique has the potential of increasing the probability to successfully identify the AE events associated with the various mechanical events.

Governmentality and the reflection of legal educators : assessment practices as a case study

This paper presents a conceptual framework, informed by Foucault’s work on governmentality, which allows for new kinds of reflection on the practice of legal education. Put simply, this framework suggests that legal education can be understood as a form of government that relies on a specific rationalisation and programming of the activities of legal educators, students, and administrators, and is implemented by harnessing specific techniques and bodies of ‘know-how’. Applying this framework to assessment at three Australian law schools, this paper highlights how assessment practices are rationalised, programmed, and implemented, and points out how this government shapes students’ legal personae. In particular, this analysis focuses on the governmental effects of pedagogical discourses that are dominant within the design and scholarship of legal education. It demonstrates that the development of pedagogically-sound regimes of assessment has contributed to a reformulation of the terrain of government, by providing the conditions under which forms of legal personae may be more effectively shaped, and extending the power relations that achieve this. This analysis provides legal educators with an original way of reflecting on the power effects of teaching the law, and new opportunities for thinking about what is possible in legal education.

Optimism about safety and group-serving interpretations of safety among pedestrians and cyclists in relation to road use in general and under low light conditions

Drivers are known to be optimistic about their risk of crash involvement, believing that they are less likely to be involved in a crash than other drivers. However, little comparative research has been conducted among other road users. In addition, optimism about crash risk is conceptualised as applying only to an individual’s assessment of his or her personal risk of crash involvement. The possibility that the self-serving nature of optimism about safety might be generalised to the group-level as a cyclist or a pedestrian, i.e., becoming group-serving rather than self-serving, has been overlooked in relation to road safety. This study analysed a subset of data collected as part of a larger research project on the visibility of pedestrians, cyclists and road workers, focusing on a set of questionnaire items administered to 406 pedestrians, 838 cyclists and 622 drivers. The items related to safety in various scenarios involving drivers, pedestrians and cyclists, allowing predictions to be derived about group differences in agreement with items based on the assumption that the results would exhibit group-serving bias. Analysis of the responses indicated that specific hypotheses about group-serving interpretations of safety and responsibility were supported in 22 of the 26 comparisons. When the nine comparisons relevant to low lighting conditions were considered separately, seven were found to be supported. The findings of the research have implications for public education and for the likely acceptance of messages which are inconsistent with current assumptions and expectations of pedestrians and cyclists. They also suggest that research into group-serving interpretations of safety, even for temporary roles rather than enduring groups, could be fruitful. Further, there is an implication that gains in safety can be made by better educating road users about the limitations of their visibility and the ramifications of this for their own road safety, particularly in low light.

Mechanical properties of advanced tissue engineering scaffold architectures

In tissue engineering, porous scaffolds are used as a temporal support for tissue regeneration through cell adhesion, proliferation and differentiation. Besides applying a suitable material that is both biocompatible and biodegradable, the architectural design of the porous scaffold can be of essential for successful tissue regeneration. The architecture is of great influence on mechanical properties and transport properties of nutrients and metabolites1.

The role of bricolage and resource constraints in high potential sustainability ventures

Sustainability decisions and their impacts may be among the greatest challenges facing the world in the 21st century (Davos 2000). Apart from adaptation on the part of established organizations these challenges are arguably going to require solutions developed by new actors However, young ventures have only recently begun generating research interest within sustainability literature (Shepherd et al. 2009). In particular, little is known about resource behaviours of these ventures and how they adapt to substantial resource constraints. One promising theory that has been identified as a way that some entrepreneurs manage constraints is bricolage: a construct defined as “making do by applying combinations of the resources at hand to new problems and opportunities” (Baker and Nelson 2005: 333). Bricolage may be critical as the means of continued venture success as these ventures are frequently developed in severe resource constraint, owing to higher levels of technical sophistication (Rothaermel and Deeds 2006). Further, they are often developed by entrepreneurs committed to personal and social goals of resourcefulness, including values that focus on conservation rather than consumption of resources (Shepherd et al. 2009). In this paper, using seven novel cases of high potential sustainability firms from CAUSEE we consider how constraints impact resource behaviours and further illustrate and extend bricolage domains previously developed by Baker and Nelson (2005) with recommendations for theory and practice provided.

Modernising charity : steps to an alternative architecture for common law charity jurisprudence

This chapter addresses the question, how can the common law concept of charity law be modernised? There are difficulties with the present jurisprudential conception. The focus of the chapter is not on those difficulties, however, but rather on the development of an alternative architecture for common law jurisprudence. The conclusion to which the chapter comes is that charity law can be modernised by a series of steps to include all civil society organisations. It is possible if the ‘technical’ definition of charitable purpose is abandoned in favour of a contemporary, not technical concept of charitiable purpose. This conclusion is reached by proposing a framework, developed from the common law concept of charities, that reconciles into a cohesive jurisprudential architecture all of the laws applying to civil society organisations, not just charities. In this section, first the argument is contextualised in an idea of society and located in a gap in legal theory. An analogy is then offered to introduce the problems in the legal theory applying, not just to charities, but more broadly to civil society organisations. The substantive challenge of mapping an alternative jurisprudence is then taken in steps. The final substantive section conceptualises the changes inherent in a move beyond charities to a jurisprudence centred on civil society organisations and how this would bring legal theory into line with sectoral analysis in other disciplines.

Analysis of cardiac and epileptic signals using higher order spectra

The theory of nonlinear dyamic systems provides some new methods to handle complex systems. Chaos theory offers new concepts, algorithms and methods for processing, enhancing and analyzing the measured signals. In recent years, researchers are applying the concepts from this theory to bio-signal analysis. In this work, the complex dynamics of the bio-signals such as electrocardiogram (ECG) and electroencephalogram (EEG) are analyzed using the tools of nonlinear systems theory. In the modern industrialized countries every year several hundred thousands of people die due to sudden cardiac death. The Electrocardiogram (ECG) is an important biosignal representing the sum total of millions of cardiac cell depolarization potentials. It contains important insight into the state of health and nature of the disease afflicting the heart. Heart rate variability (HRV) refers to the regulation of the sinoatrial node, the natural pacemaker of the heart by the sympathetic and parasympathetic branches of the autonomic nervous system. Heart rate variability analysis is an important tool to observe the heart's ability to respond to normal regulatory impulses that affect its rhythm. A computerbased intelligent system for analysis of cardiac states is very useful in diagnostics and disease management. Like many bio-signals, HRV signals are non-linear in nature. Higher order spectral analysis (HOS) is known to be a good tool for the analysis of non-linear systems and provides good noise immunity. In this work, we studied the HOS of the HRV signals of normal heartbeat and four classes of arrhythmia. This thesis presents some general characteristics for each of these classes of HRV signals in the bispectrum and bicoherence plots. Several features were extracted from the HOS and subjected an Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) test. The results are very promising for cardiac arrhythmia classification with a number of features yielding a p-value < 0.02 in the ANOVA test. An automated intelligent system for the identification of cardiac health is very useful in healthcare technology. In this work, seven features were extracted from the heart rate signals using HOS and fed to a support vector machine (SVM) for classification. The performance evaluation protocol in this thesis uses 330 subjects consisting of five different kinds of cardiac disease conditions. The classifier achieved a sensitivity of 90% and a specificity of 89%. This system is ready to run on larger data sets. In EEG analysis, the search for hidden information for identification of seizures has a long history. Epilepsy is a pathological condition characterized by spontaneous and unforeseeable occurrence of seizures, during which the perception or behavior of patients is disturbed. An automatic early detection of the seizure onsets would help the patients and observers to take appropriate precautions. Various methods have been proposed to predict the onset of seizures based on EEG recordings. The use of nonlinear features motivated by the higher order spectra (HOS) has been reported to be a promising approach to differentiate between normal, background (pre-ictal) and epileptic EEG signals. In this work, these features are used to train both a Gaussian mixture model (GMM) classifier and a Support Vector Machine (SVM) classifier. Results show that the classifiers were able to achieve 93.11% and 92.67% classification accuracy, respectively, with selected HOS based features. About 2 hours of EEG recordings from 10 patients were used in this study. This thesis introduces unique bispectrum and bicoherence plots for various cardiac conditions and for normal, background and epileptic EEG signals. These plots reveal distinct patterns. The patterns are useful for visual interpretation by those without a deep understanding of spectral analysis such as medical practitioners. It includes original contributions in extracting features from HRV and EEG signals using HOS and entropy, in analyzing the statistical properties of such features on real data and in automated classification using these features with GMM and SVM classifiers.

The first global entertainment company : explaining Pathe's dominance in the pre-Hollywood film industry

For almost a decade before Hollywood existed, French firm Pathe towered over the early film industry with estimates of its share of all films sold around the world varying between 50-70%. Pathe was the first global entertainment company. This paper analyses its rise to market leadership by applying a theoretical framework drawn from the business literature on causes of industry dominance, which provides insights into how firms acquire and maintain market dominance and in this case the film industry. This paper uses evidence presented by film historians to argue that Pathe "fits" the expected theoretical model of a dominant firm because it had a marketing orientation, used an effective quality-based competitive strategy and possessed the six critical marketing capabilities that business research shows enable the best performing firms to consistently outperform rivals.