970 resultados para Ambiguidade causal


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Cognitive impairment has emerged as a major driver of disability in old age, with profound effects on individual well-being and decision making at older ages. In the light of policies aimed at postponing retirement ages, an important question is whether continued labour supply helps to maintain high levels of cognition at older ages. We use data of older men from the US Health and Retirement Study to estimate the effect of continued labour market participation at older ages on later-life cognition. As retirement itself is likely to depend on cognitive functioning and may thus be endogenous, we use offers of early retirement windows as instruments for retirement in econometric models for later-life cognitive functioning. These offers of early retirement are legally required to be nondiscriminatory and thus, inter alia, unrelated to cognitive functioning. At the same time, these offers of early retirement options are significant predictors of retirement. Although the simple ordinary least squares estimates show a negative relationship between retirement duration and various measures of cognitive functioning, instrumental variable estimates suggest that these associations may not be causal effects. Specifically, we find no clear relationship between retirement duration and later-life cognition for white-collar workers and, if anything, a positive relationship for blue-collar workers. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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L'homocystéine est un molécule potentiellement atherogénique et est considéré comme facteur de risque indépendant pour les maladies cardiovasculaires. Pour les patients avec une maladie rénale chronique ou en général avec une fonction rénale diminuée le taux d'homocystéine dans le sérum est élevé. L'acide urique est associé avec un risque augmenté de développer une maladie rénale et prédit la mortalité pour les patients avec une maladie rénale chronique. Le but de cette étude était d'évaluer l'association entre des taux sériques d'homocystéine élevés est la présence d'une fonction rénale diminuée, exprimé par une filtration glomérulaire diminuée ou une albuminurie dans une sélection de la population de Lausanne. Nous avons aussi investigué l'effet de l'acide urique sur cette relation. Pour évaluer si l'association entre l'homocystéine est l'albuminurie pourra être causal, nous avons en même temps investigué l'association entra l'albuminurie est le polymorphisme du gène de la methylènetetrafolate réductase (MTHFR) fortement corrélé avec les taux sériques de l'homocystéine. L'étude CoLaus est transversale et basée sur la population. Elle représente une sélection aléatoire, non stratifié de la population générale de la ville de Lausanne, Suisse, âgée 35-75 ans (n=56.694). 5913 personnes étaient incluses dans l'analyse. La prévalence de l'albuminurie augmente dans les catégories de taux sériques croissants d'homocystéine. L'acide urique est associé avec la concentration sérique de l'homocystéine. Hyperhomocystéinémie et des taux sérique d'acide urique augmentés sont associés avec l'albuminurie, indépendant de l'hypertonie et du diabète. Dans cette étude basée sur une large population, l'association entre des taux sérique elevés d'homocystéine et la prévalence augmentée de l'albuminurie est indépendante de la fonction glomérulaire, indiquant que cette association n'est pas simplement la conséquence de la fonction rénale réduite. Hyperhomocystéinémie est associé avec un risque doublé pour une albuminurie, ce qu'est similaire au risque associé à l'hypertonie ou au diabète type 2. Cette association est indépendante de l'acide urique. Ce résultat suggère que l'hyperhomocystéinémie est un marqueur indépendant des la dysfonction rénale. Individus avec le polymorphisme du MTHFR associé avec des concentrations sériques élevées d'homocystéine sont associé avec un risque augmenté pour une albuminurie. Tous ces résultats supportent l'hypothèse que l'homocystéine cause des dommages rénaux.

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La pneumònia adquirida a la comunitat (PAC) és una patologia molt prevalent, l´etiologia de la qual ve donada per les característiques de la regió geogràfica, de l'agent causal i del pacient. L'estudi de cadascuna d'elles és fonamental per al seu correcte abordatge terapèutic. Ens vam proposar estudiar els canvis de l'agent causal de la PAC en funció de l'estacionalitat i la influència dels canvis climàtics de la nostra àrea geogràfica. Material i mètode: Estudi prospectiu longitudinal de pacients ingressats per PAC des de Gener de 2008 a Desembre de 2009. Analitzem dades sociodemogràfiques, comorbiditat, gravetat, agent etiològic, complicacions i mortalitat. Correlacionem la temperatura mitjana, la precipitació acumulada mitjana i el caràcter de la precipitació per S. pneumoniae i Legionella pneumophila en cada estació de l'any. Anàlisi estadística: Xi quadrat, t de Student per mostres independents, anàlisi de la variància i correlació de Spearman. Resultats: Incloem 155 pacients, 63.9% homes i 54.8% majors de 65 anys. La major incidència de PAC va ser a l'hivern. Streptococcus pneumoniae va ser l'agent causal més freqüent en totes les estacions de l'any a excepció de l'estiu, que va ser Legionella pneumophila. Observem una correlació significativa entre la menor temperatura mitjana estacional i l'etiologia pneumocòccica i al revés quan l'agent causal va ser Legionella pneumophila. No obstant això, no trobem diferències etiològiques per estacions en relació amb la humitat ambiental. Conclusions: En la nostra àrea, Streptococcus pneumoniae és l'agent etiològic més freqüent a l'hivern amb baixes temperatures mentre que a l'estiu, amb altes temperatures, és Legionella pneumophila.

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Existeix un debat continu sobre la rellevància del Virus del papiloma humà (VPH) en l’etiopatogènia de la psoriasi. S’ha reportat un elevat percentatge de detecció de VPH en pacients psoriàsics, sobretot el VPH5 i 36, suggerint que podrien correspondre a l’antigen causal de la cascada inmunològica. El propòsit de l’estudi és utilitzar un mètode ampli per a la detecció d’ADN tant de beta com gamma-papilomavirus en 30 biòpsies de pell psoriàsica i 30 biòpsies de pell sana. Avaluarem si els VPH són detectats de forma més freqüent en pell psoriàsica en comparació amb pell sana, i quins són els VPH específics més sobreexpresats.

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This paper investigates the impact of television on internal migration in Indonesia. We exploit the differential introduction of private television throughout the country and the variation in signal reception due to topography to estimate the causal effect of media exposure. Our estimates reveal important long and short run effects. An increase of one standard deviation in the number of private TV channels received in the area of residence reduces future inter-provincial migration by 1.7-2.7 percentage points, and all migration (inter and intra-provincial) by 4-7.4 percentage points. Short run effects are slightly smaller, but still sizeable and statistically significant. We also show that respondents less exposed to private TV are more likely to consider themselves among the poorest groups of the society. As we discuss in a stylized model of migration choice under imperfect information, these findings are consistent with Indonesia citizens over-estimating the net gains from internal migration.

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Early consumption of full servings of alcohol and early experience of drunkenness have been linked with alcohol-related harmful effects in adolescence, as well as adult health and social problems. On the basis of secondary analysis of county-level prevalence data, the present study explored the current pattern of drinking and drunkenness among 15- and 16-year-old adolescents in 40 European and North American countries. Data from the 2006 Health Behavior in School Children survey and the European School Survey Project on Alcohol and other Drugs were used. The potential role of alcohol control and policy measures in explaining variance in drinking patterns across countries was also examined. Policy measures and data on adult consumption patterns were taken from the WHO Global Information System on Alcohol and Health, Eurostat and the indicator of alcohol control policy strength developed by Brand DA, Saisana M, Rynn LA et al. [(2007) Comparative analysis of alcohol control policies in 30 countries. PLoS Med 4:e151.]. We found that a non-significant trend existed whereby higher prices and stronger alcohol controls were associated with a lower proportion of weekly drinking but a higher proportion of drunkenness. It is important that future research explores the causal relationships between alcohol policy measures and alcohol consumption patterns to determine whether strict policies do in fact have any beneficial effect on drinking patterns, or rather, lead to rebellion and an increased prevalence of binge drinking.

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Almost all individuals (182) belonging to an Amazonian riverine population (Portuchuelo, RO, Brazil) were investigated for ascertaining data on epidemiological aspects of malaria. Thirteen genetic blood polymorphisms were investigated (ABO, MNSs, Rh, Kell, and Duffy systems, haptoglobins, hemoglobins, and the enzymes glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase, glyoxalase, phosphoglucomutase, carbonic anhydrase, red cell acid phosphatase, and esterase D). The results indicated that the Duffy system is associated with susceptibility to malaria, as observed in other endemic areas. Moreover, suggestions also arose indicating that the EsD and Rh loci may be significantly associated with resistance to malaria. If statistical type II errors and sample stratification could be ruled out, hypotheses on the existence of a causal mechanism or an unknown closely linked locus involved in susceptibility to malaria infection may explain the present findings.

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Mendelian randomization refers to the random allocation of alleles at the time of gamete formation. In observational epidemiology, this refers to the use of genetic variants to estimate a causal effect between a modifiable risk factor and an outcome of interest. In this review, we recall the principles of a "Mendelian randomization" approach in observational epidemiology, which is based on the technique of instrumental variables; we provide simulations and an example based on real data to demonstrate its implications; we present the results of a systematic search on original articles having used this approach; and we discuss some limitations of this approach in view of what has been found so far.

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BACKGROUND: Vitamin D insufficiency has been associated with the occurrence of various types of cancer, but causal relationships remain elusive. We therefore aimed to determine the relationship between genetic determinants of vitamin D serum levels and the risk of developing hepatitis C virus (HCV)-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). METHODOLOGYPRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Associations between CYP2R1, GC, and DHCR7 genotypes that are determinants of reduced 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25[OH]D3) serum levels and the risk of HCV-related HCC development were investigated for 1279 chronic hepatitis C patients with HCC and 4325 without HCC, respectively. The well-known associations between CYP2R1 (rs1993116, rs10741657), GC (rs2282679), and DHCR7 (rs7944926, rs12785878) genotypes and 25(OH)D3 serum levels were also apparent in patients with chronic hepatitis C. The same genotypes of these single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that are associated with reduced 25(OH)D3 serum levels were found to be associated with HCV-related HCC (P = 0.07 [OR = 1.13, 95% CI = 0.99-1.28] for CYP2R1, P = 0.007 [OR = 1.56, 95% CI = 1.12-2.15] for GC, P = 0.003 [OR = 1.42, 95% CI = 1.13-1.78] for DHCR7; ORs for risk genotypes). In contrast, no association between these genetic variations and liver fibrosis progression rate (P>0.2 for each SNP) or outcome of standard therapy with pegylated interferon-α and ribavirin (P>0.2 for each SNP) was observed, suggesting a specific influence of the genetic determinants of 25(OH)D3 serum levels on hepatocarcinogenesis. CONCLUSIONSSIGNIFICANCE: Our data suggest a relatively weak but functionally relevant role for vitamin D in the prevention of HCV-related hepatocarcinogenesis.

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c-Jun N-terminal kinases (SAPK/JNKs) are activated by inflammatory cytokines, and JNK signaling is involved in insulin resistance and beta-cell secretory function and survival. Chronic high glucose concentrations and leptin induce interleukin-1beta (IL-1beta) secretion from pancreatic islets, an event that is possibly causal in promoting beta-cell dysfunction and death. The present study provides evidence that chronically elevated concentrations of leptin and glucose induce beta-cell apoptosis through activation of the JNK pathway in human islets and in insulinoma (INS 832/13) cells. JNK inhibition by the dominant inhibitor JNK-binding domain of IB1/JIP-1 (JNKi) reduced JNK activity and apoptosis induced by leptin and glucose. Exposure of human islets to leptin and high glucose concentrations leads to a decrease of glucose-induced insulin secretion, which was partly restored by JNKi. We detected an interplay between the JNK cascade and the caspase 1/IL-1beta-converting enzyme in human islets. The caspase 1 gene, which contains a potential activating protein-1 binding site, was up-regulated in pancreatic sections and in isolated islets from type 2 diabetic patients. Similarly, cultured human islets exposed to high glucose- and leptin-induced caspase 1 and JNK inhibition prevented this up-regulation. Therefore, JNK inhibition may protect beta-cells from the deleterious effects of high glucose and leptin in diabetes.

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PURPOSE: Not in Education, Employment, or Training (NEET) youth are youth disengaged from major social institutions and constitute a worrying concern. However, little is known about this subgroup of vulnerable youth. This study aimed to examine if NEET youth differ from other contemporaries in terms of personality, mental health, and substance use and to provide longitudinal examination of NEET status, testing its stability and prospective pathways with mental health and substance use. METHODS: As part of the Cohort Study on Substance Use Risk Factors, 4,758 young Swiss men in their early 20s answered questions concerning their current professional and educational status, personality, substance use, and symptomatology related to mental health. Descriptive statistics, generalized linear models for cross-sectional comparisons, and cross-lagged panel models for longitudinal associations were computed. RESULTS: NEET youth were 6.1% at baseline and 7.4% at follow-up with 1.4% being NEET at both time points. Comparisons between NEET and non-NEET youth showed significant differences in substance use and depressive symptoms only. Longitudinal associations showed that previous mental health, cannabis use, and daily smoking increased the likelihood of being NEET. Reverse causal paths were nonsignificant. CONCLUSIONS: NEET status seemed to be unlikely and transient among young Swiss men, associated with differences in mental health and substance use but not in personality. Causal paths presented NEET status as a consequence of mental health and substance use rather than a cause. Additionally, this study confirmed that cannabis use and daily smoking are public health problems. Prevention programs need to focus on these vulnerable youth to avoid them being disengaged.

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Dietary salt intakes are well in excess of nutritional requirements in most countries worldwide. There is now an overwhelming scientific consensus, based on observational studies and clinical trials over the past 40 years, that salt intake in excess of physiological requirements plays a critical causal role in the rise in blood pressure with age and the development of essential hypertension.

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Rotaviruses have been implicated as the major causal agents of acute diarrhoea in mammals and fowls. Experimental rotavirus infection have been associated to a series of sub-cellular pathologic alterations leading to cell lysis which may represent key functions in the pathogenesis of the diarrhoeic disease. The current work describes the cytopathic changes in cultured MA-104 cells infected by a simian (SA-11) and a porcine (1154) rotavirus strains. Trypan blue exclusion staining showed increased cell permeability after infection by both strains, as demonstrated by cell viability. This effect was confirmed by the leakage of infected cells evaluated by chromium release. Nuclear fragmentation was observed by acridine orange and Wright staining but specific DNA cleavage was not detected. Ultrastructural changes, such as chromatin condensation, cytoplasm vacuolisation, and loss of intercellular contact were shown in infected cells for both strains. In situ terminal deoxynucleotidyl transferase (Tunel) assay did not show positive result. In conclusion, we demonstrated that both strains of rotavirus induced necrosis as the major degenerative effect.

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BACKGROUND: Here, we aimed to determine the prevalence of erectile dysfunction (ED) among HIV-infected men and its association with components of antiretroviral therapy. METHODS: Cross-sectional data on sexual dysfunction were collected in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS) between December 2009 and November 2010. Multilevel logistic regression models were used to estimate the association between ED and exposure to 24 different antiretroviral drugs from four drug classes. RESULTS: During the study period, 5,194 of 5,539 eligible men in the SHCS had a follow-up visit; 4,064 men answered a question on ED for the first time. Among these men, ED was experienced often by 459 (11%), sometimes by 543 (13%), rarely by 389 (10%), never by 2,526 (62%) and 147 (4%) did not know. ED was associated with older age, an earlier HIV diagnosis and depression. No association was found with any drug class; however, ED was associated with cumulative exposure to either zalcitabine (OR 1.29 per year of use; 95% CI 1.07, 1.55) or enfuvirtide (OR 1.28; 95% CI 1.08, 1.52). CONCLUSIONS: Around 1 in 10 men in the SHCS reported often experiencing ED. We found no association between ED and any drug class, but those exposed to zalcitabine or enfurvitide (drugs no longer or rarely used) were more likely to report ED; this second association was probably not causal.

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Alcohol is responsible for a significant portion of the global burden of disease. There is widespread concern reported in the media and other sources about drinking trends among young people, particularly heavy episodic or “binge” drinking. Prominent among policy responses, in the UK and elsewhere, have been attempts to manage antisocial behaviour related to intoxication in public spaces. Much less attention has been given to the longer term effects of excessive drinking in adolescence on later adult health and well-being. Some studies suggest that individuals “mature out” of late adolescent drinking behaviour, whilst others identify enduring effects on drinking and broader health and social outcomes in adulthood. If adolescent drinking does not cause later difficulties in adulthood then intervention approaches aimed at addressing the acute consequences of alcohol, such as unintentional injuries and anti-social behaviour, may be the most appropriate solution. If causal relationships do exist, however, this approach will not address the cumulative harms produced by alcohol, unless such intervention successfully modifies the long-term relationship with alcohol, which seems unlikely. To address this issue a systematic review of cohort studies was conducted, as this approach provides the strongest observational study design to evaluate evidence for causal inference.This resource was contributed by The National Documentation Centre on Drug Use.