The Devil’s Calculus: Mathematical Models of Civil War

In spite of the movement to turn political science into a real science, various mathematical methods that are now the staples of physics, biology, and even economics are thoroughly uncommon in political science, especially the study of civil war. This study seeks to apply such methods - specifically, ordinary differential equations (ODEs) - to model civil war based on what one might dub the capabilities school of thought, which roughly states that civil wars end only when one side’s ability to make war falls far enough to make peace truly attractive. I construct several different ODE-based models and then test them all to see which best predicts the instantaneous capabilities of both sides of the Sri Lankan civil war in the period from 1990 to 1994 given parameters and initial conditions. The model that the tests declare most accurate gives very accurate predictions of state military capabilities and reasonable short term predictions of cumulative deaths. Analysis of the model reveals the scale of the importance of rebel finances to the sustainability of insurgency, most notably that the number of troops required to put down the Tamil Tigers is reduced by nearly a full order of magnitude when Tiger foreign funding is stopped. The study thus demonstrates that accurate foresight may come of relatively simple dynamical models, and implies the great potential of advanced and currently unconventional non-statistical mathematical methods in political science.

Interrelationships between the structural and functional aspects of social relationships, comorbidity and health related quality of life in breast cancer survivors

It is widely acknowledged in theoretical and empirical literature that social relationships, comprising of structural measures (social networks) and functional measures (perceived social support) have an undeniable effect on health outcomes. However, the actual mechanism of this effect has yet to be clearly understood or explicated. In addition, comorbidity is found to adversely affect social relationships and health related quality of life (a valued outcome measure in cancer patients and survivors). ^ This cross sectional study uses selected baseline data (N=3088) from the Women's Healthy Eating and Living (WHEL) study. Lisrel 8.72 was used for the latent variable structural equation modeling. Due to the ordinal nature of the data, Weighted Least Squares (WLS) method of estimation using Asymptotic Distribution Free covariance matrices was chosen for this analysis. The primary exogenous predictor variables are Social Networks and Comorbidity; Perceived Social Support is the endogenous predictor variable. Three dimensions of HRQoL, physical, mental and satisfaction with current quality of life were the outcome variables. ^ This study hypothesizes and tests the mechanism and pathways between comorbidity, social relationships and HRQoL using latent variable structural equation modeling. After testing the measurement models of social networks and perceived social support, a structural model hypothesizing associations between the latent exogenous and endogenous variables was tested. The results of the study after listwise deletion (N=2131) mostly confirmed the hypothesized relationships (TLI, CFI >0.95, RMSEA = 0.05, p=0.15). Comorbidity was adversely associated with all three HRQoL outcomes. Strong ties were negatively associated with perceived social support; social network had a strong positive association with perceived social support, which served as a mediator between social networks and HRQoL. Mental health quality of life was the most adversely affected by the predictor variables. ^ This study is a preliminary look at the integration of structural and functional measures of social relationships, comorbidity and three HRQoL indicators using LVSEM. Developing stronger social networks and forming supportive relationships is beneficial for health outcomes such as HRQoL of cancer survivors. Thus, the medical community treating cancer survivors as well as the survivor's social networks need to be informed and cognizant of these possible relationships. ^

The role of social support in HIV prevention among young Latino men who have sex with men

The purpose of this formative study was to determine and prioritize the HIV-prevention needs of Latino young men who have sex with men (YMSM) in Chihuahua (Mexico), Texas, and California, based on YMSM and service provider perceptions of the factors affecting the assimilation and implementation of HIV-preventive behaviors. These factors included: perceived social support, identification of the modes of HIV transmission, perceived risk of HIV, perceived norms and attitudes of peers.^ The study, drawn from a secondary data set, was a convenience sample of providers (n=8) and clients (n=15). Participants completed face-to face interviews and a survey instrument. Interviews were analyzed to identify common themes and congruence among client groups, and among clients and providers. Providers’ understanding of theoretical constructs of interventions was also assessed. Survey data were analyzed to determine variable frequencies and their congruence to the qualitative analysis. ^ The results revealed several differences and many commonalities in the assimilation of protective messages. Client and provider perceptions were congruent across all domains. Providers demonstrated intuitive command of theoretical concepts but inconsistently verbalized their application. Both clients and providers recognized Latinos possessed high HIV-knowledge levels, despite inconsistent protective behaviors. Clients and providers consistently identified important reasons leading to inconsistent protective behaviors, such as: lack of access to targeted information and condoms, self-esteem, sexual identification, situational factors, decreased perceived HIV-risk, and concerns about homophobia, stigma, and rejection. Other factors included: poverty, failure to reach disenfranchised populations, and lack of role models/positive parental figures. The principal conclusion of the study was that there is a need for further study to understand the interrelationship between larger socioeconomic issues and consistent protective behaviors.^

The influence of social connectedness and self-esteem on participant retention in a bi-ethnic longitudinal study

In prospective studies it is essential that the study sample accurately represents the target population for meaningful inferences to be drawn. Understanding why some individuals do not participate, or fail to continue to participate, in longitudinal studies can provide an empirical basis for the development of effective recruitment and retention strategies to improve response rates. This study examined the influence of social connectedness and self-esteem on long-term retention of participants, using secondary data from the “San Antonio Longitudinal Study of Aging” (SALSA), a population-based study of Mexican Americans (MAs) and European Americans (EAs) aged over 65 years residing in San Antonio, Texas. We tested the effect of social connectedness, self-esteem and socioeconomic status on participant retention in both ethnic groups. In MAs only, we analyzed whether acculturation and assimilation moderated these associations and/or had a direct effect on participant retention. ^ Low income, low frequency of social contacts and length of recruitment interval were significant predictors of non-completer status. Participants with low levels of social contacts were almost twice as likely as those with high levels of social contacts to be non-completers, even after adjustment for age, sex, ethnic group, education, household income, and recruitment interval (OR = 1.95, 95% CI: 1.26–3.01, p = 0.003). Recruitment interval consistently and strongly predicted non-completer status in all the models tested. Depending on the model, for each year beyond baseline there was a 25–33% greater likelihood of non-completion. The only significant interaction, or moderating, effect observed was between social contacts and cultural values among MAs. Specifically, MAs with both low social contacts and low acculturation on cultural values (i.e., placed high value on preserving Mexican cultural origins) were three and half times more likely to be non-completers compared with MAs in other subgroups comprised of the combination of these variables, even after adjustment for covariates. ^ Long term studies with older and minority participants are challenging for participant retention. Strategies can be designed to enhance retention by paying special attention to participants with low social contacts and, in MAs, participants with both low social contacts and low acculturation on cultural values. Minimizing the time interval between baseline and follow-up recruitment, and maintaining frequent contact with participants during this interval should also be is integral to the study design.^

Get ur 60: A social marketing campaign to promote and facilitate physical activity among Central Texas middle school students

If allowed to continue unabated, the obesity epidemic may lead to the first decline in life expectancy in the developed world (Olshansky et al., 2005). Similar to the relationship between smoking habits in youth and adulthood, obesogenic dietary and physical activity habits in childhood may persist into adulthood (Kelder et al., 2002). Teaching children how to establish healthy eating habits and activity levels, as well as providing them the necessary resources to internalize and maintain these behaviors, may be the key to curbing this epidemic.^ A school-based obesity prevention approach is advantageous for many reasons including exposure to large captive audiences, reduced costs of sustainability and long-term maintenance, and generalizability of models and results across multiple populations. The effectiveness of school-based programs has been researched over the past 20 years, with promising results.^ Social marketing is a program-planning process that “facilitates the acceptance, rejection, modification, abandonment, or maintenance of particular behaviors” (Grier & Bryant, 2005). Social marketing has been shown to be effective in a variety of public health applications including improving diet, increasing physical activity, and preventing substance abuse. It is hypothesized that social marketing could further enhance the effectiveness of the Coordinated Approach To Child Health (CATCH) Central Texas Middle School Project, a school-based obesity prevention program.^ The development, implementation, and initial evaluation of the get ur 60 campaign, to promote the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommended sixty minutes of daily activity, is described in this paper. Various components of the get ur 60 campaign were assessed to evaluate the effectiveness of the campaign during the first semester of implementation. At the end of the spring semester focus groups were held to collect student reactions to the first semester of the get ur 60 campaign.^ The initial results from the first semester of get ur 60 have demonstrated that the campaign as designed was feasible to implement, accepted at all intervention schools, and resulted in a measure of success. ^

Social Workers' Perceptions of Family Preservation Programs

The passage of the Adoptions and Safe Families Act of 1997, with its focus on child safety and concurrent planning, has presented family preservation workers with new challenges and new opportunities. Twenty volunteers from a large comprehensive social service agency were interviewed to determine their experiences with two models of family preservation—Multisystemic Therapy (MST) and Traditional Family Preservation Service (TFPS) or practice as usual. Workers from both programs were able to articulate values consistent with family preservation as important strengths of the programs— keeping families together and empowering families for example. Information from referring agencies was described as variable and not especially useful when working with seriously troubled families, especially as it related to risk and child safety. Both groups indicated that the jargon of family preservation had permeated their agencies, and that working with other agencies was at times a challenge, though for different reasons. Finally, despite some reservations about the effectiveness of short-term treatment with families that face serious challenges, both groups of workers were generally satisfied with family preservation as an approach to practice.

La educación como derecho social básico ¿qué nos queda? : un análisis comparado de la política educativa argentina en los \'90

Este trabajo se propone comparar el contenido dado por el Estado de Bienestar y el Estado neoliberal a un derecho social básico como es la educación, y en términos más generales a la categoría de ciudadanía. Esta comparación, creemos, será especialmente fértil ya que si bien nos acotaremos al estudio de una política especifica, ésta da cuenta de dos modelos antagónicos, no sólo de Estado, sino también de intervención social, de construcción de la ciudadanía y de distribución de ingresos. Tratamos, entonces, a las políticas educativas de estos modelos con el fin de contextualizarlas y realizar un balance de cada uno de estos momentos en lo que respecta a educación, ciudadanía y pérdida de capacidad de ejercicio real de algunos de nuestros derechos y/o desentendimiento por parte del Estado para garantizarlos.

El ciudadano como actor social : debatiendo la participación en el estado actual

El presente artículo analiza desde sus orígenes la conceptualización de la ciudadanía y el impacto de su ejercicio en el ámbito político y social de las sociedades, las respuestas que los Estados modernos han ido dando a las demandas planteadas al constituirse los ciudadanos en actores sociales luchando por sus derechos; los enfoques de diversos autores sobre el contenido de la condición ciudadana tanto en las sociedades modernas como en las actuales y los profundos cambios que la globalización y la cultura posmoderna han producido en la caracterización del ciudadano. Plantea el desarrollo de la ciudadanía en la República Argentina y las distorsiones en su ejercicio producidas por los cambios societales y políticos ocurridos a fines del siglo pasado y principio del presente, a partir de una nueva configuración social marcada por la pobreza y la exclusión; compara los tipos ciudadanos con los modelos societales a que da lugar cada uno y el papel a desempeñar por el Estado ante las demandas como actores sociales que plantea el individuo en los respectivos modelos.

Comparing the quality of three models of postabortion care in public hospitals in Mexico City

artículo publicado en la revista Int Fam Plan Perspect. 2003 Sep;29(3):112-20

Dispositivo metodológico para el estudio de las estrategias de reproducción social de los productores familiares en el agro uruguayo

En este trabajo se presenta el dispositivo metodológico de un estudio de casos múltiple realizado a productores agropecuarios familiares del Litoral Oeste de Uruguay. El estudio, de tipo etnográfico, integra los aportes de los enfoques biográficos y de la metodología Enfoque Global de la Explotación Agropecuaria (metodología EGEA). Se describe como fue diseñada la muestra teórica y la etapa de relevamiento de información para cada caso, que implicó visitas a dieciséis familias de productores agropecuarios ubicados en cuatro contextos territoriales diferentes. Esta línea de investigación tiene como referencia a Pierre Bourdieu, su teoría de la práctica y su sistema de conceptos fundamentales. A partir del análisis de los modelos de funcionamiento estratégico de los casos estudiados, se profundiza en los sistemas de reglas estratégicas comunes y específicas de acuerdo a trayectorias y ciclos familiares. Se presentan resultados preliminares del estudio realizado y algunas consideraciones metodológicas sobre la potencialidad y complementariedad de los enfoques utilizados

Family diversity in social exclusion situations. Results and reflections on research, teaching and knowledge transfer activities

The purpose of this paper is to characterize the configurations of the families that live in contexts of social exclusion; provide conceptualizations of their operation mode; highlight the formative effects that neighborhood interdisciplinary practices with such families produce in the just graduated psychologists, included on the Extension Program. We wish to contribute to produce systematic knowledge that can account for such family configurations as potential receiver of integration policies. We are also interested on transferring the approach to diversity in the training of young professionals, in order not to be regarded as a deviation from ideal models, but as an expression of different strategies built by members of a community, to resolve children breeding and to bear their existences. This work is the result about reflections on productions inside a research fellowship: The complexities that takes the breeding in families who lives in a social exclusion situation; researches about breeding, carried out from signature Developmental Psychology II, and from de interdisciplinary work with psychologically assisted families in twelve suburbs of the city of La Plata (University Extension Program "Free Legal Offices" (Convention between Law and Social Sciences and Psychology Faculties, U.N.L.P.). From a qualitative methodology and an interdisciplinary participation, the results have arrive at the characterization and proposed conceptualizations of the included families and at the same time determine the benefits that brings with the work that articulates research and extension activities for the training of advanced students and young graduates.

La diversidad familiar en situaciones de exclusión social. Resultados y reflexiones sobre actividades de investigación, formación y transferencia de conocimientos

El presente artículo se propone caracterizar las configuraciones familiares que habitan en contextos de exclusión social; aportar conceptualizaciones sobre sus modos de funcionamiento a través de la sistematización de los datos recogidos y destacar los efectos formativos que las prácticas interdisciplinarias barriales con esas familias, van produciendo en los psicólogos recién graduados, a través de una tarea de transferencia del enfoque sobre la diversidad tanto en el interior de las investigaciones como a partir de las intervenciones realizadas con las familias en las tareas de incorporados al Programa de Extensión. Asimismo, nos ha interesado poder efectuar una tarea de transferencia del enfoque sobre la diversidad en la formación de los profesionales jóvenes, tanto en el interior de las investigaciones como en el de las intervenciones realizadas con familias en las tareas de extensión. Este trabajo surge de resultados y reflexiones provenientes de tres fuentes: de lo producido en el marco de una Beca de iniciación a la Investigación; de las investigaciones sobre parentalidad, que desde el año 2001 venimos realizando en la Cátedra de Psicología Evolutiva II y del trabajo interdisciplinario con familias asistidas psicológicamente en el interior del Programa de Extensión Universitaria ?Consultorios Jurídicos Gratuitos?, asentados en doce barrios suburbanos de la ciudad de La Plata (convenio entre la Facultad de Ciencias Jurídicas y Sociales y la Facultad de Psicología, U.N.L.P.) A partir de una metodología cualitativa, con participación interdisciplinaria, los resultados obtenidos han permitido por un lado arribar a la caracterización y conceptualizaciones propuestas acerca de las familias incluidas y al mismo tiempo precisar los beneficios que para la formación de estudiantes avanzados y jóvenes graduados trae aparejado el trabajo que articula actividades de investigación y extensión

Perspectives on guidance and social inclusion in a global society

The world is changing rapidly. People today face numerous challenges in achieving a meaningful and fulfilling life. In many countries, there are enormous systemic barriers to address, such as: massive unemployment, HIV/AIDS, social disintegration, and inadequate infrastructure. One job for life is over. For many it never existed. Old metaphors and old models of career development no longer apply. New ways of thinking about careers are necessary, that take into account the context in which people are living, the reality of today's labour market, and the fact people's career-life journey contains many branching paths, barriers, and obstacles, but also allies and sources of assistance. Flexibility is important, as is keeping options open and making sure the journey is meaningful. Guidance professionals need to begin early, working with other professionals and those seeking assistance to develop attitudes that facilitate people taking charge of their own career-life paths. People need a vision for their life that will drive a purposeful approach to career-life planning and avoid floundering. Helping people achieve that direction can be most effectively accomplished when policy makers and practitioners work together to ensure that effective and accessible services are available for those who need them and when a large part of focus in on addressing the context in which marginalized people work and live.

Dispositivo metodológico para el estudio de las estrategias de reproducción social de los productores familiares en el agro uruguayo

En este trabajo se presenta el dispositivo metodológico de un estudio de casos múltiple realizado a productores agropecuarios familiares del Litoral Oeste de Uruguay. El estudio, de tipo etnográfico, integra los aportes de los enfoques biográficos y de la metodología Enfoque Global de la Explotación Agropecuaria (metodología EGEA). Se describe como fue diseñada la muestra teórica y la etapa de relevamiento de información para cada caso, que implicó visitas a dieciséis familias de productores agropecuarios ubicados en cuatro contextos territoriales diferentes. Esta línea de investigación tiene como referencia a Pierre Bourdieu, su teoría de la práctica y su sistema de conceptos fundamentales. A partir del análisis de los modelos de funcionamiento estratégico de los casos estudiados, se profundiza en los sistemas de reglas estratégicas comunes y específicas de acuerdo a trayectorias y ciclos familiares. Se presentan resultados preliminares del estudio realizado y algunas consideraciones metodológicas sobre la potencialidad y complementariedad de los enfoques utilizados

Family diversity in social exclusion situations. Results and reflections on research, teaching and knowledge transfer activities

The purpose of this paper is to characterize the configurations of the families that live in contexts of social exclusion; provide conceptualizations of their operation mode; highlight the formative effects that neighborhood interdisciplinary practices with such families produce in the just graduated psychologists, included on the Extension Program. We wish to contribute to produce systematic knowledge that can account for such family configurations as potential receiver of integration policies. We are also interested on transferring the approach to diversity in the training of young professionals, in order not to be regarded as a deviation from ideal models, but as an expression of different strategies built by members of a community, to resolve children breeding and to bear their existences. This work is the result about reflections on productions inside a research fellowship: The complexities that takes the breeding in families who lives in a social exclusion situation; researches about breeding, carried out from signature Developmental Psychology II, and from de interdisciplinary work with psychologically assisted families in twelve suburbs of the city of La Plata (University Extension Program "Free Legal Offices" (Convention between Law and Social Sciences and Psychology Faculties, U.N.L.P.). From a qualitative methodology and an interdisciplinary participation, the results have arrive at the characterization and proposed conceptualizations of the included families and at the same time determine the benefits that brings with the work that articulates research and extension activities for the training of advanced students and young graduates.