Procesos de privatización del agua en América Latina: análisis y seguimiento de la interacción estratégica entre movimientos sociales versus multinacionales en Bolivia, Uruguay y México. Período 2000 – 2006

El presente escrito, constituye una aproximación a los procesos de privatización del agua en América Latina. Lo anterior, en el marco de la acción colectiva, específicamente de los movimientos sociales y su interacción estratégica con oponentes como las compañías multinacionales, las organizaciones financieras internacionales y el Estado. Tomando como referencia las luchas ocurridas en Bolivia, Uruguay y México, con especial énfasis en La Guerra del Agua en Cochabamba (Bolivia).

Uso del gas como recurso estratégico en la política exterior rusa. Análisis de caso Ucrania periodo 2000-2010

Estudio de caso que busca evaluar el uso del gas natural dentro de la política exterior rusa como recurso estratégico en las relaciones con Ucrania. Se describe y analiza cómo la importancia geoestratégica de Ucrania genera una percepción de seguridad y relevancia económica en Rusia, por esta razón la Federación utiliza el gas natural como mecanismo de presión frente al Estado ucraniano para satisfacer sus intereses nacionales en función de los elementos mencionados anteriormente.Todo lo anterior a través de la Teoría del Heartland desarrollada por Halford Mackinder y El Concepto de Área Pivote de Zbigniew Brzezinski para determinar cómo se genera la importancia del Estado ucraniano frente a Rusia

Aproximacón al cálculo del crecimiento real de Colombia: aportes metodológicos para la inclusión en las cuentas nacionales de los impactos del agotamiento del carbón y del gas natural

The integrated accounting system considers the natural resource depletion issues. We analyze the difference between this system and the traditional national accounting system, using data from the mining sector in Colombia (natural gas and coal). Results show that by including the impact of these two resources exhaustion, the traditional GDP would be overestimated; while it grew at an annual rate of 2.2% for the period 1995-2005, adjusted GDP would show a grow rate of 1.3%, reflecting costs on real country growth. These results open a debate given the current proposal of basing part of economic growth in Colombia on mining.

The need of sustainable buildings construction in the Kingdom of Bahrain

This thesis is aimed to initiate implementing sustainable building construction in the kingdom of Bahrain, i.e. Building-Integration PhotoVoltaic (BIPV) or Wind Energy (BIWE). It highlights the main constrains that discourage such modern concept in building and construction. Three groups have been questioned using a questionnaire. These are the policy and decision makers, the leading consultants and the contractors. The main constrains of the dissemination of BIVP and BIWE, according to the policy and decision makers, are: lack of knowledge and awareness of the public in sustainable technology, low cost of electricity, low cost of gas and oil and difficulty in applying local environmental taxes. The consultants had attributed the constrains to ignorance of life cycle cost of PV and Wind turbines systems, lack of education and knowledge in sustainable design, political system, shortage of markets importing sustainable technologies and client worries in profitability and pay-back period. The contractors are found to be very enthusiastic and ready to take over any sustainable building project and prefer to have a construction manger to coordinate between the design and contracting team. Design and Build is found the favorable procurement method in Bahrain for conducting BIPV or BIWE projects.

An efficient flux difference splitting algorithm for unsteady duct flows of a real gas

A numerical scheme is presented for the solution of the Euler equations of compressible flow of a real gas in a single spatial coordinate. This includes flow in a duct of variable cross-section, as well as flow with slab, cylindrical or spherical symmetry, as well as the case of an ideal gas, and can be useful when testing codes for the two-dimensional equations governing compressible flow of a real gas. The resulting scheme requires an average of the flow variables across the interface between cells, and this average is chosen to be the arithmetic mean for computational efficiency, which is in contrast to the usual “square root” averages found in this type of scheme. The scheme is applied with success to five problems with either slab or cylindrical symmetry and for a number of equations of state. The results compare favourably with the results from other schemes.

The full-spectrum correlated-k method for longwave atmospheric radiative transfer using an effective Planck function

The correlated k-distribution (CKD) method is widely used in the radiative transfer schemes of atmospheric models and involves dividing the spectrum into a number of bands and then reordering the gaseous absorption coefficients within each one. The fluxes and heating rates for each band may then be computed by discretizing the reordered spectrum into of order 10 quadrature points per major gas and performing a monochromatic radiation calculation for each point. In this presentation it is shown that for clear-sky longwave calculations, sufficient accuracy for most applications can be achieved without the need for bands: reordering may be performed on the entire longwave spectrum. The resulting full-spectrum correlated k (FSCK) method requires significantly fewer monochromatic calculations than standard CKD to achieve a given accuracy. The concept is first demonstrated by comparing with line-by-line calculations for an atmosphere containing only water vapor, in which it is shown that the accuracy of heating-rate calculations improves approximately in proportion to the square of the number of quadrature points. For more than around 20 points, the root-mean-squared error flattens out at around 0.015 K/day due to the imperfect rank correlation of absorption spectra at different pressures in the profile. The spectral overlap of m different gases is treated by considering an m-dimensional hypercube where each axis corresponds to the reordered spectrum of one of the gases. This hypercube is then divided up into a number of volumes, each approximated by a single quadrature point, such that the total number of quadrature points is slightly fewer than the sum of the number that would be required to treat each of the gases separately. The gaseous absorptions for each quadrature point are optimized such that they minimize a cost function expressing the deviation of the heating rates and fluxes calculated by the FSCK method from line-by-line calculations for a number of training profiles. This approach is validated for atmospheres containing water vapor, carbon dioxide, and ozone, in which it is found that in the troposphere and most of the stratosphere, heating-rate errors of less than 0.2 K/day can be achieved using a total of 23 quadrature points, decreasing to less than 0.1 K/day for 32 quadrature points. It would be relatively straightforward to extend the method to include other gases.

Power to the people: working-class demand for household power in 1930s Britain

The 1930s witnessed an intense struggle between gas and electricity suppliers for the working class market, where the incumbent utility—gas—was also a reasonably efficient (and cheaper) General Purpose Technology for most domestic uses. Local monopolies for each supplier boosted substitution effects between fuel types—as alternative fuels constituted the only local competition. Using newly-rediscovered returns from a major national household expenditure survey, we employ geographically-determined instrumental variables, more commonly used in the industrial organization literature, to show that gas provided a significant competitor, tempering electricity prices, while electricity demand was also responsive to marketing initiatives.

The full-spectrum correlated k method for longwave atmospheric radiative transfer: treatment of gaseous overlap

The correlated k-distribution (CKD) method is widely used in the radiative transfer schemes of atmospheric models, and involves dividing the spectrum into a number of bands and then reordering the gaseous absorption coefficients within each one. The fluxes and heating rates for each band may then be computed by discretizing the reordered spectrum into of order 10 quadrature points per major gas, and performing a pseudo-monochromatic radiation calculation for each point. In this paper it is first argued that for clear-sky longwave calculations, sufficient accuracy for most applications can be achieved without the need for bands: reordering may be performed on the entire longwave spectrum. The resulting full-spectrum correlated k (FSCK) method requires significantly fewer pseudo-monochromatic calculations than standard CKD to achieve a given accuracy. The concept is first demonstrated by comparing with line-by-line calculations for an atmosphere containing only water vapor, in which it is shown that the accuracy of heating-rate calculations improves approximately in proportion to the square of the number of quadrature points. For more than around 20 points, the root-mean-squared error flattens out at around 0.015 K d−1 due to the imperfect rank correlation of absorption spectra at different pressures in the profile. The spectral overlap of m different gases is treated by considering an m-dimensional hypercube where each axis corresponds to the reordered spectrum of one of the gases. This hypercube is then divided up into a number of volumes, each approximated by a single quadrature point, such that the total number of quadrature points is slightly fewer than the sum of the number that would be required to treat each of the gases separately. The gaseous absorptions for each quadrature point are optimized such they minimize a cost function expressing the deviation of the heating rates and fluxes calculated by the FSCK method from line-by-line calculations for a number of training profiles. This approach is validated for atmospheres containing water vapor, carbon dioxide and ozone, in which it is found that in the troposphere and most of the stratosphere, heating-rate errors of less than 0.2 K d−1 can be achieved using a total of 23 quadrature points, decreasing to less than 0.1 K d−1 for 32 quadrature points. It would be relatively straightforward to extend the method to include other gases.

The case of negative day-ahead electricity prices

In recent years, Germany has significantly increased its share of electricity produced from renewable sources, which is mainly due to the Renewable Energy Act (EEG). The EEG substantially impacts the dynamics of intra-day electricity prices by increasing the likelihood of negative prices. In this paper, we present a non-Gaussian process to model German intra-day electricity prices and propose an estimation procedure for this model. Most importantly, our model is able to generate extreme positive and negative spikes. A simulation study demonstrates the ability of our model to capture the characteristics of the data.

Applicability of molecular simulations for modelling the adsorption of the greenhouse gas CF4 on carbons

Tetrafluoromethane, CF4, is powerful greenhouse gas, and the possibility of storing it in microporous carbon has been widely studied. In this paper we show, for the first time, that the results of molecular simulations can be very helpful in the study of CF4 adsorption. Moreover, experimental data fit to the results collected from simulations. We explain the meaning of the empirical parameters of the supercritical Dubinin–Astakhov model proposed by Ozawa and finally the meaning of the parameter k of the empirical relation proposed by Amankwah and Schwarz.

CASCADE: An Agent Based Framework For Modeling The Dynamics Of Smart Electricity Systems

The Complex Adaptive Systems, Cognitive Agents and Distributed Energy (CASCADE) project is developing a framework based on Agent Based Modelling (ABM). The CASCADE Framework can be used both to gain policy and industry relevant insights into the smart grid concept itself and as a platform to design and test distributed ICT solutions for smart grid based business entities. ABM is used to capture the behaviors of diff erent social, economic and technical actors, which may be defi ned at various levels of abstraction. It is applied to understanding their interactions and can be adapted to include learning processes and emergent patterns. CASCADE models ‘prosumer’ agents (i.e., producers and/or consumers of energy) and ‘aggregator’ agents (e.g., traders of energy in both wholesale and retail markets) at various scales, from large generators and Energy Service Companies down to individual people and devices. The CASCADE Framework is formed of three main subdivisions that link models of electricity supply and demand, the electricity market and power fl ow. It can also model the variability of renewable energy generation caused by the weather, which is an important issue for grid balancing and the profi tability of energy suppliers. The development of CASCADE has already yielded some interesting early fi ndings, demonstrating that it is possible for a mediating agent (aggregator) to achieve stable demandfl attening across groups of domestic households fi tted with smart energy control and communication devices, where direct wholesale price signals had previously been found to produce characteristic complex system instability. In another example, it has demonstrated how large changes in supply mix can be caused even by small changes in demand profi le. Ongoing and planned refi nements to the Framework will support investigation of demand response at various scales, the integration of the power sector with transport and heat sectors, novel technology adoption and diffusion work, evolution of new smart grid business models, and complex power grid engineering and market interactions.

Dominant role of greenhouse-gas forcing in the recovery of Sahel rainfall

Sahelian summer rainfall, controlled by the West African monsoon, exhibited large-amplitude multidecadal variability during the twentieth century. Particularly important was the severe drought of the 1970s and 1980s, which had widespread impacts1–6. Research into the causes of this drought has identified anthropogenic aerosol forcing3,4,7 and changes in sea surface temperatures (SSTs; refs 1,2,6,8–11) as the most important drivers. Since the 1980s, there has been some recovery of Sahel rainfall amounts2–6,11–14, although not to the pre-drought levels of the 1940s and 1950s. Here we report on experiments with the atmospheric component of a state-of-the-art global climate model to identify the causes of this recovery. Our results suggest that the direct influence of higher levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere was the main cause, with an additional role for changes in anthropogenic aerosol precursor emissions. We find that recent changes in SSTs, although substantial, did not have a significant impact on the recovery. The simulated response to anthropogenic greenhouse-gas and aerosol forcing is consistent with a multivariate fingerprint of the observed recovery, raising confidence in our findings. Although robust predictions are not yet possible, our results suggest that the recent recovery in Sahel rainfall amounts is most likely to be sustained or amplified in the near term.

Glacial-interglacial temperature change in the tropical West Pacific: a comparison of stalagmite-based paleo-thermometers

In the tropics, geochemical records from stalagmites have so far mainly been used to qualitatively reconstruct changes in precipitation, but several new methods to reconstruct past temperatures from stalagmite material have emerged recently: i) liquid–vapor homogenization of fluid inclusion water ii) noble gas concentrations in fluid inclusion water, iii) the partitioning of oxygen isotopes between fluid inclusion water and calcite, and iv) the abundance of the 13C18O16O (‘clumped’) isotopologue in calcite. We present, for the first time, a direct comparison of these four paleo-thermometers by applying them to a fossil stalagmite covering nearly two glacial–interglacial cycles (Marine Isotope Stages (MIS) 12–9) and to two modern stalagmites, all from northern Borneo. The temperature estimates from the different methods agree in most cases within errors for both the old and recent samples; reconstructed formation temperatures of the recent samples match within 2-sigma errors with measured cave temperatures. However, slight but systematic deviations are observed between noble gas and liquid–vapor homogenization temperatures. Whereas the temperature sensitivity of fluid inclusion δ18O and clumped isotopes is currently debated, we find that the calibration of Tremaine et al. (2011) for fluid inclusion δ18O and a synthetic calcite-based clumped isotope calibration (Ziegler et al., in prep.) yield temperature estimates consistent with the other methods. All methods (with the potential exception of clumped isotopes) show excellent agreement on the amplitude of glacial–interglacial temperature change, indicating temperature shifts of 4–5 °C. This amplitude is similar to the amplitude of Mg/Ca-based regional sea surface temperature records, when correcting for sea level driven changes in cave elevation. Our reconstruction of tropical temperature evolution over the time period from 440 to 320 thousand years ago (ka) adds support to the view that climate sensitivity to varying greenhouse forcing is substantial also in the deep tropics.

Electricity derivatives pricing with forward-looking information

In order to increase overall transparency on key operational information, power transmission system operators publish an increasing amount of fundamental data, including forecasts of electricity demand and available capacity. We employ a fundamental model for electricity prices which lends itself well to integrating such forecasts, while retaining ease of implementation and tractability to allow for analytic derivatives pricing formulae. In an extensive futures pricing study, the pricing performance of our model is shown to further improve based on the inclusion of electricity demand and capacity forecasts, thus confirming the general importance of forward-looking information for electricity derivatives pricing. However, we also find that the usefulness of integrating forecast data into the pricing approach is primarily limited to those periods during which electricity prices are highly sensitive to demand or available capacity, whereas the impact is less visible when fuel prices are the primary underlying driver to prices instead.

Two case studies of sulfate scavenging processes in the Amazon region (Rondonia)

The scavenging processes of chemical species have been previously studied with numerical modeling, in order to understand the gas and particulate matter intra-reservoir transferences. In this study, the atmospheric (RAMS) and scavenging (B.V.2) models were used, in order to simulate sulfate concentrations in rainwater using scavenging processes as well as the local atmospheric conditions obtained within the LBA Project in the State of Rondonia, during a dry-to-wet transition season. Two case studies were conducted. The RAMS atmospheric simulation of these events presented satisfactory results, showing the detailed microphysical processes of clouds in the Amazonian region. On the other hand, with cloud entrainments, observed values have been overestimated. Modeled sulfate rainwater concentration, using exponential decay and cloud heights of 16 km and no entrainments, presented the best results, reaching 97% of the observed value. The results, using shape parameter 5, are the best, improving the overall result. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.