The EU-China Bilateral Investment Agreement: Between High Hopes and Real Challenges. Security Policy Brief No. 68, February 2016

In 2012, negotiations over an EU–China bilateral investment agreement were launched to fully tap into the potential of bilateral investments. This policy brief gives an overview of the current negotiation process and argues that the high hopes advanced politically and economically in the agreement must be weighed against the many challenges and obstacles the negotiations face, regarding current events in EU–China relations, in global trade and investment regimes, and the limits of EU competencies. Strategically, the agreement could be important, as it offers the potential to strengthen the EU’s global economic relevance. This brief concludes that there is much to gain if the EU follows a coordinated approach and remains mindful of these (potential) obstacles.

Neogene radiolarian datum levels in the equatorial Indian and Pacific Oceans

Fifty radiolarian events of early Pleistocene and Neogene age were identified in an E-W transect of equatorial DSDP sites, extending from the Gulf of Panama to the western Pacific and eastern Indian Oceans. Our objective was to document the degree of synchroneity or time-transgressiveness of stratigraphically-useful datum levels from this geologic time interval. We restricted our study to low latitudes within which morphological variations of individual taxa are minimal, the total assemblage diversity remains high, and stratigraphic continuity is well-documented by an independent set of criteria. Each of the five sites chosen (503, 573, 289/586, 214) was calibrated to an "absolute" time scale, using a multiple of planktonic foraminiferal, nannofossil, and diatom datum levels which have been independently correlated to the paleomagnetic polarity time scale in piston core material. With these correlations we have assigned "absolute" ages to each radiolarian event, with a precision of 0.1-0.2 m.y. and an accuracy of 0.2-0.4 m.y. On this basis we have classified each of the events as either: (a) synchronous (range of ages <0.4 m.y.); (b) time-transgressive (i.e., range of ages >1.0 m.y.); and (c) not resolvable (range of ages 0.4-1.0 m.y.). Our results show that, among the synchronous datum levels, a large majority (15 out of 19) are last occurrences. Among those events which are clearly time-transgressive, most are first appearances (10 out of 13). In many instances taxa appear to evolve first in the Indian Ocean, and subsequently in the western and eastern Pacific Ocean. This pattern is particularly unexpected in view of the strong east-to-west zonal flow in equatorial latitudes. Three of the time-transgressive events have been used to define zonal boundaries: the first appearances of Spongaster pentas, Diartus hughesi, and D. petterssoni. Our results suggest that biostratigraphic non-synchroneity may be substantial (i.e., greater than 1 m.y.) within a given latitudinal zone; one would expect this effect to be even more pronounced across oceanographic and climatic gradients. We anticipate that the extent of diachroneity may be comparable for diatom, foraminiferal, and nannofossil datum levels as well. If this proves true, global "time scales" may need to be re-formulated on the basis of a smaller number of demonstrably synchronous events.

(Table 1) Carbon- and oxygen-isotopes for bulk sediment carbonate at DSDP Holes 86-577 and 86-577A

We have obtained a detailed carbon-isotope stratigraphy of the Paleocene sections recovered from Deep Sea Drilling Project (DSDP) Holes 577 and 577A. This 13C record is useful in stratigraphically correlating the two holes and in interpreting the magnetostratigraphic data. Comparison with the published data for Site 527 (Southeast Atlantic Ocean) shows that 13C stratigraphy is also valuable for long-distance correlation.

Data compilation of ESOP

The work in this sub-project of ESOP focuses on the advective and convective transforma-tion of water masses in the Greenland Sea and its neighbouring areas. It includes observational work on the sub-mesoscale and analysis of hydrographic data up to the gyre-scale. Observations of active convective plumes were made with a towed chain equipped with up to 80 CTD sensors, giving a horizontal and vertical resolution of the hydrographic fields of a few metres. The observed scales of the penetrative convective plumes compare well with those given by theory. On the mesoscale the structure of homogeneous eddies formed as a result of deep convection was observed and the associated mixing and renewal of the intermediate layers quantified. The relative importance and efficiency of thermal and haline penetrative convection in relation to the surface boundary conditions (heat and salt fluxes and ice cover) and the ambient stratification are studied using the multi year time series of hydro-graphic data in the central Greenland Sea. The modification of the water column of the Greenland Sea gyre through advection from and mixing with water at its rim is assessed on longer time scales. The relative contributions are quantified using modern water mass analysis methods based on inverse techniques. Likewise the convective renewal and the spreading of the Arctic Intermediate Water from its formation area is quantified. The aim is to budget the heat and salt content of the water column, in particular of the low salinity surface layer, and to relate its seasonal and interannual variability to the lateral fluxes and the fluxes at the air-sea-ice interface. This will allow to estimate residence times for the different layers of the Greenland Sea gyre, a quantity important for the description of the Polar Ocean carbon cycle.

(Table 2) Stable isotopes in foraminifers at DSDP Leg 78

Analyses of stable isotopes of monospecific planktonic foraminifers (G. quadrilobatus group) and monogeneric benthic foraminifers (Cibicidoides spp.) from late Neogene Atlantic Site 502 and Pacific Site 503 were conducted in order to determine the paleoceanographic changes resulting from the late Neogene uplift of the Panama Isthmus and from climatic cooling. In general, results at each site are similar to those from previous studies for the late Miocene and late Pliocene time interval, documenting the late Miocene (6 Ma) shift in carbon isotopes and the inferred growth of permanent Northern Hemisphere continental ice sheets beginning about 3.2 Ma. Comparison of Atlantic-Pacific planktonic-benthic isotope data for four stratigraphic intervals (~6-8, ~5-6, ~3-5, and ~2-3 Ma) suggests that increasing isolation of Atlantic and Pacific low-latitude waters may be related to the emergence of the Panama Isthmus. The contrast between Atlantic and Pacific benthic foraminiferal d13C increased in two steps from 0.60 per mil to 1 per mil (the modern contrast) at about 6 Ma and 3 Ma. The first increase (0.15 per mil) may represent the end of previously limited deep-water communication between the Atlantic and Pacific at the present location of Panama. The second increase (0.25 per mil) may be due to increased production of North Atlantic Deep Water. This probably reflects the development of modern deep-sea circulation. The d18O of planktonic foraminifers begins to increase in Atlantic Site 502 at 4.2 Ma and may reflect the increasing salinity of the North Atlantic Ocean arising from diminishing surface-water exchange across Panama. This increase is clearly shown by contrasting the d18O of Atlantic and Pacific planktonic foraminifers, as well as the d18O of planktonic and benthic foraminifers at Site 502. This inferred increase in surface-water salinity begins at the time of increasing provinciality of Atlantic and Pacific planktonic foraminifers.