Is the observed persistence spurious? A test for fractional integration versus short memory and structural breaks

Although it is commonly accepted that most macroeconomic variables are nonstationary, it is often difficult to identify the source of the non-stationarity. In particular, it is well-known that integrated and short memory models containing trending components that may display sudden changes in their parameters share some statistical properties that make their identification a hard task. The goal of this paper is to extend the classical testing framework for I(1) versus I(0)+ breaks by considering a a more general class of models under the null hypothesis: non-stationary fractionally integrated (FI) processes. A similar identification problem holds in this broader setting which is shown to be a relevant issue from both a statistical and an economic perspective. The proposed test is developed in the time domain and is very simple to compute. The asymptotic properties of the new technique are derived and it is shown by simulation that it is very well-behaved in finite samples. To illustrate the usefulness of the proposed technique, an application using inflation data is also provided.

Firm investment in imperfect capital markets: A structural estimation

We set up a dynamic model of firm investment in which liquidity constraintsenter explicity into the firm's maximization problem. The optimal policyrules are incorporated into a maximum likelihood procedure which estimatesthe structural parameters of the model. Investment is positively related tothe firm's internal financial position when the firm is relatively poor. This relationship disappears for wealthy firms, which can reach theirdesired level of investment. Borrowing is an increasing function of financial position for poor firms. This relationship is reversed as a firm's financial position improves, and large firms hold little debt.Liquidity constrained firms may be unused credits lines and the capacity toinvest further if they desire. However the fear that liquidity constraintswill become binding in the future induces them to invest only when internalresources increase.We estimate the structural parameters of the model and use them to quantifythe importance of liquidity constraints on firms' investment. We find thatliquidity constraints matter significantly for the investment decisions of firms. If firms can finance investment by issuing fresh equity, rather than with internal funds or debt, average capital stock is almost 35% higher overa period of 20 years. Transitory shocks to internal funds have a sustained effect on the capital stock. This effect lasts for several periods and ismore persistent for small firms than for large firms. A 10% negative shock to firm fundamentals reduces the capital stock of firms which face liquidityconstraints by almost 8% over a period as opposed to only 3.5% for firms which do not face these constraints.

Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis

We develop and estimate a structural model of inflation that allowsfor a fraction of firms that use a backward looking rule to setprices. The model nests the purely forward looking New KeynesianPhillips curve as a particular case. We use measures of marginalcosts as the relevant determinant of inflation, as the theorysuggests, instead of an ad-hoc output gap. Real marginal costsare a significant and quantitatively important determinant ofinflation. Backward looking price setting, while statisticallysignificant, is not quantitatively important. Thus, we concludethat the New Keynesian Phillips curve provides a good firstapproximation to the dynamics of inflation.

Structural covariance of superficial white matter in mild Alzheimer's disease compared to normal aging.

INTRODUCTION: Interindividual variations in regional structural properties covary across the brain, thus forming networks that change as a result of aging and accompanying neurological conditions. The alterations of superficial white matter (SWM) in Alzheimer's disease (AD) are of special interest, since they follow the AD-specific pattern characterized by the strongest neurodegeneration of the medial temporal lobe and association cortices. METHODS: Here, we present an SWM network analysis in comparison with SWM topography based on the myelin content quantified with magnetization transfer ratio (MTR) for 39 areas in each hemisphere in 15 AD patients and 15 controls. The networks are represented by graphs, in which nodes correspond to the areas, and edges denote statistical associations between them. RESULTS: In both groups, the networks were characterized by asymmetrically distributed edges (predominantly in the left hemisphere). The AD-related differences were also leftward. The edges lost due to AD tended to connect nodes in the temporal lobe to other lobes or nodes within or between the latter lobes. The newly gained edges were mostly confined to the temporal and paralimbic regions, which manifest demyelination of SWM already in mild AD. CONCLUSION: This pattern suggests that the AD pathological process coordinates SWM demyelination in the temporal and paralimbic regions, but not elsewhere. A comparison of the MTR maps with MTR-based networks shows that although, in general, the changes in network architecture in AD recapitulate the topography of (de)myelination, some aspects of structural covariance (including the interhemispheric asymmetry of networks) have no immediate reflection in the myelination pattern.

Cis-trans interactions of cell surface receptors: biological roles and structural basis.

Cell surface receptors bind ligands expressed on other cells (in trans) in order to communicate with neighboring cells. However, an increasing number of cell surface receptors are found to also interact with ligands expressed on the same cell (in cis). These observations raise questions regarding the biological role of such cis interactions. Specifically, it is important to know whether cis and trans binding have distinct functional effects and, if so, how a single cell discriminates between interactions in cis versus trans. Further, what are the structural features that allow certain cell surface receptors to engage ligand both on the same as well as on an apposed cell membrane? Here, we summarize known examples of receptors that display cis-trans binding and discuss the emerging diversity of biological roles played by these unconventional two-way interactions, along with their structural basis.

Non-stationary job search when jobs are not forever: A structural estimation

This paper considers a job search model where the environment is notstationary along the unemployment spell and where jobs do not lastforever. Under this circumstance, reservation wages can be lower thanwithout separations, as in a stationary environment, but they can alsobe initially higher because of the non-stationarity of the model. Moreover,the time-dependence of reservation wages is stronger than with noseparations. The model is estimated structurally using Spanish data forthe period 1985-1996. The main finding is that, although the decrease inreservation wages is the main determinant of the change in the exit ratefrom unemployment for the first four months, later on the only effect comesfrom the job offer arrival rate, given that acceptance probabilities areroughly equal to one.

What is what?: A simple time-domain test of long-memory vs. structural breaks

This paper proposes a new time-domain test of a process being I(d), 0 < d = 1, under the null, against the alternative of being I(0) with deterministic components subject to structural breaks at known or unknown dates, with the goal of disentangling the existing identification issue between long-memory and structural breaks. Denoting by AB(t) the different types of structural breaks in the deterministic components of a time series considered by Perron (1989), the test statistic proposed here is based on the t-ratio (or the infimum of a sequence of t-ratios) of the estimated coefficient on yt-1 in an OLS regression of ?dyt on a simple transformation of the above-mentioned deterministic components and yt-1, possibly augmented by a suitable number of lags of ?dyt to account for serial correlation in the error terms. The case where d = 1 coincides with the Perron (1989) or the Zivot and Andrews (1992) approaches if the break date is known or unknown, respectively. The statistic is labelled as the SB-FDF (Structural Break-Fractional Dickey- Fuller) test, since it is based on the same principles as the well-known Dickey-Fuller unit root test. Both its asymptotic behavior and finite sample properties are analyzed, and two empirical applications are provided.

On the structural difference between the evolutionary approach of Young and that of Kandori, Mailath and Rob

We provide robust examples of symmetric two-player coordination games in normal form that reveal that equilibrium selection bythe evolutionary model of Young (1993) is essentially different from equilibrium selection by the evolutionary model of Kandori, Mailath and Rob (1993).

Anàlisi geomètrica del Diaclasat de les Guilleries en el sector de la Vall del Ter entre els embassaments del Pasteral i Susqueda (Girona)

The Guilleries are a small and mountainous area located in the north-westem part of the Catalonian Coastal Ranges where metamorphic and igneous Paleozoic rocks are exposed. After the main hercynian folding this area was affected by a brittle deformation that is mainly manifested by the intrusion of a very large number of dykes of granodiorite and the development of a complex joint system. Trends of dykes indicate that their intrusion was related to a SE-NW extension, whose estimated value is 40% on an average. This extension seems to stand, although without any associated igneous event, with the development of NE-SW directed joints which make the main set. Five families more were developed later, onegently-dipping and fou upright; the latter trending roughly SE-NW, ENE-WSW, ESE-WNW and N-S. AU the joint sets appear in the metasedimentary Paleozoic rocks and in the hercynian intrusive bodies. Concerning the ages, joints that belong to the NE-SW and SE-NW directed sets and also those slightly dipping have been attributed to the late-hercynian times and all the other are considered to be later

Identification of optimal structural connectivity using functional connectivity and neural modeling.

The complex network dynamics that arise from the interaction of the brain's structural and functional architectures give rise to mental function. Theoretical models demonstrate that the structure-function relation is maximal when the global network dynamics operate at a critical point of state transition. In the present work, we used a dynamic mean-field neural model to fit empirical structural connectivity (SC) and functional connectivity (FC) data acquired in humans and macaques and developed a new iterative-fitting algorithm to optimize the SC matrix based on the FC matrix. A dramatic improvement of the fitting of the matrices was obtained with the addition of a small number of anatomical links, particularly cross-hemispheric connections, and reweighting of existing connections. We suggest that the notion of a critical working point, where the structure-function interplay is maximal, may provide a new way to link behavior and cognition, and a new perspective to understand recovery of function in clinical conditions.

La zonación estructural del hercínico del Pirineo Central en el anticlinorio de la Pallaresa

The Pyrenees are an alpine chain with hercynian basement rocks that outcrop in a large area called the Axial Zone. These rocks have been involved in the alpine deformation events although their main structural features resulted from the Hercynian orogeny. A relevant characteristic of the Hercynian basement is a change in structural style in depth which has been commonly studied and interpreted in the Pallaresa Anticlinorium, in the Central Pyrenees. This anticlinorium is a complex hercynian structural unit whose southern part belongs to the suprastructure whereas the northern part corresponds mostly to a transition zone between the infrastructure and the suprastructure. Rocks of the suprastructure show a steeply dipping slaty cleavage as the dominant structure, which is overprinting folds and thrusts rarely going with pervasive deformation. The transition zone results from a slaty cleavage, very often close to the bedding, overprinted by one or two steep crenulation cleavages. A gradual boundary exists between both structural levels and it can be observed that the deformation developing slaty cleavage in the suprastructure grades to a crenulation foliation in the transition zone. The gradual character of that boundary, as seen in the northern end of the transition zone, suggests that the southern sharp boundary is not original. That boundary is interpreted as a northward dipping inverse fault, possibly with Alpine age. That fault causes a relative uplift of the rocks of the transition zone and gives this sharp boundary with the suprastructural levels. It provokes the asymmetry in the Pallaresa anticlinorium

Compositional and structural variabilities of Mg-rich iron oxide spinels from tuffite

Maghemite (γFe2O3) from tuffite is exceptionally rich in Mg, relatively to most of those reportedly found in other mafic lithosystems. To investigate in detail the compositional and structural variabilities of this natural magnetic iron oxide, sets of crystals were isolated from samples collected at different positions in a tuffite weathering mantle. These sets of crystal were individually powdered and studied by X-ray diffractometry, Mössbauer spectroscopy, magnetization measurements and chemical analysis. Lattice parameter of the cubic cell (a0) was found to vary from 0.834(1) to 0.8412(1) nm. Lower a0-values are characteristic of maghemite whereas higher ones are related to a magnetite precursor. FeO content ranges up to 17 mass % and spontaneous magnetization ranges from 8 to 32 J T-1 kg-1. Zero-field room temperature Mössbauer spectra are rather complex, indicating that the hyperfine field distributions due to Fe3+ and mixed valence Fe3+/2+ overlap. The structural variabilities of the (Mg, Ti)-rich iron oxide spinels is essentially related to the range of chemical composition of its precursor (Mg, Ti)-rich magnetite, and probably to the extent to which it has been oxidized during transformation in soil.

Contribution to the geology of Southern Turkey: new insights from the Mersin mélanges and from the Lycian and Antalya nappes

Abstract The study of fossil Tethyan continental margins implies the consideration of the oceanic domains to which they were connected. The advent of plate tectonics confirmed the importance of the detection of accretion-related mélanges. Ophiolitic mélanges are derived from both an upper ophiolitic obducting plate and a lower oceanic plate. Besides ophiolitic elements, the mélanges may incorporate parts of a magmatic arc and dismembered fragments of a passive continental margin. As the lower plate usually totally disappears during the obduction process, it can only be reconstructed from its elements found in the mélanges. Because of their key location at active margin boundaries, preserved accretion-related mélanges provide strong constraints on the geological evolution of former oceanic domains and their adjacent margins. The identification of Palaeotethyan remnants as accretionary series or reworked during the Late Triassic Eo-Cimmerian event, as well as the recognition of HugluPindos marginal sequences in southern Turkey and in the external Hellenides represent the main achievements of this work, making possible to establish new palaeogeographical correlations. The Mersin mélanges (Turkey), together with the Antalya and Mamonia (Cyprus) domains, are characterized by a series of exotic units found now south of the main Taurus range and compose the South-Taurides Exotic Units. The Mersin mélanges are subdivided in a Triassic and a Late Cretaceous unit. These units consist of the remnants of three major Tethyan oceans, the Palaeotethys, the Neotethys and the Huglu-Pindos. The definition and inventory of the Upper Antalya Nappes (Turkey) are still a matter of controversies and often conflicting interpretations. The recognition of Campanian radiolarians on top of the Kerner Gorge unit directly overlain by the Ordovician Seydi§ehir Fm. of the Tahtah Dag Nappe outlines a tectonic contact and demonstrates that the Upper Antalya Nappes system is composed of three different nappes, the Kerner Gorge, Bakirli and the Tahtah Dag nappes. Additionally, a limestone block in a doubtful tectonic position at the base of the Upper Antalya Nappes yielded for the first time two middle Viséan associations of foraminifers and problematic algae. The Tavas Nappe in the Lycian Nappes (Turkey) is classically divided into the Karadag, Teke Dere, Köycegiz and Haticeana units. As for the Mersin mélanges, the Tavas Nappe is highly composite and includes dismembered units belonging to the Palaeotethyan, Neotethyan and HugluPindos realms. The Karadag unit consists of a Gondwana-type platform succession ranging from the Late Devonian to the Late Triassic. It belongs to the Cimmerian Taurus terrane and was part of the northern passive margin of the Neotethys. The Teke Dere unit is composed of different parts of the Palaeotethyan succession including Late Carboniferous OIB-type basalts, Carboniferous MORB-type basalts, an Early Carboniferous siliciclastic series and a Middle Permian arc sequence. The microfauna and microflora identified in different horizons within the Teke Dere unit share strong biogeographical affinities with the northern Palaeotethyan borders. Kubergandian limestones in primary contact above the Early Carboniferous siliciclastics yielded a rich and diverse microfauna and microflora also identified in reworked cobbles within the Late Triassic Gevne Fm. of the Aladag unit (Turkey). The sedimentological evolution of the Köycegiz and Haticeana series is in many points similar to classical Pindos sequences. These series originated in the Huglu-Pindos Ocean along the northern passive margin of the Anatolian (Turkish transect) and Sitia-Pindos (Greek transect) terranes. Conglomerates at the base of the Lentas Unit in southern Crete (Greece) yielded a microfauna and microflora presenting also strong affinities with the northern borders of the Palaeotethys. This type of reworked sediments at the base of Pindos-like series would suggest a derivation from the Palaeotethyan active margin. -Résumé (French abstract) L'étude des marges continentales fossiles de l'espace téthysien implique d'étudier les domaines océaniques qui y étaient rattachés. Les progrès de la tectonique des plaques ont confirmé l'importance de la reconnaissance des mélanges d'accrétion. Les mélanges ophiolitiques dérivent d'une plaque supérieure ophiolitique qui obducte, et d'une plaque inférieure océanique. En plus d'éléments ophiolitiques, les mélanges peuvent aussi incorporer des parties d'un arc magmatique, ou des fragments d'une marge continentale passive. Comme la plaque inférieure disparaît généralement complètement durant le processus d'obduction, elle ne peut être reconstruite qu'au travers de ses éléments trouvés dans les mélanges. A cause de leur situation aux limites de marges actives, les mélanges d'accrétion bien préservés permettent de contraindre l'évolution géologique d'anciens océans et de leurs marges. L'identification de vestiges de la Paléotéthys en série d'accrétion ou remaniés lors de l'orogenèse éo-cimmérienne au Trias supérieur, ainsi que l'observation de séquences marginales de Huglu-Pinde en Turquie du sud et dans les Hellénides externes représentent les principaux résultats de ce travail, permettant d'établir de nouvelles corrélations paléogéographiques. Les mélanges de Mersin (Turquie), avec les domaines d'Antalya et de Mamonia (Chypre), sont caractérisés par des unités exotiques se trouvant au sud de la chaîne taurique, et forment les Unités Exotiques Sud-Tauriques. Les mélanges de Mersin sont subdivisés en une unité triasique, et une autre du Crétacé supérieur. Ces unités comprennent les reliques de trois principaux océans téthysiens, la Paléotéthys, la Néotéthys et Huglu-Pinde. L'inventaire et la définition des nappes supérieures d'Antalya (Turquie) sont encore matière à controverse et donne lieu à des interprétations conflictuelles. La découverte de radiolaires campaniens au sommet de l'unité de la Gorge de Kemer, directement recouverts par la formation ordovicienne de Seydisehir de la nappe du Tahtali Dag met en évidence un contact tectonique et démontre que les nappes supérieures sont composées de trois différentes nappes, celle de la Gorge de Kemer, celle du Bakirli et celle Tahtali Dag. De plus, un bloc de calcaire dont la position tectonique demeure incertaine à la base des nappes supérieures a fourni pour la première fois deux associations viséennes de foraminifères et d'algues problématiques. La nappe de Tavas dans les nappes lyciennes (Turquie) est séparée en unités du Karadag, du Teke Dere, de Köycegiz et d'Haticeana. Comme pour les mélanges de Mersin, la nappe de Tavas est composite et inclut des unités appartenant à la Paléotéthys, à la Néotéthys et à Huglu-Pinde. L'unité du Karadag est une plateforme carbonatée de type Gondwana se développant du Dévonien supérieur au Trias supérieur. Elle appartient au domaine cimmérien du Taurus et formait la marge nord de la Néotéthys. L'unité du Teke Dere est composée de différentes écailles paléotéthysiennes et inclut des basaltes d'île océanique du Carbonifère supérieur, des basaltes de ride océanique du Carbonifère, une série siliciclastique du Carbonifère supérieur et un arc du Permien moyen. Les microfaunes et -flores trouvées à différents niveaux de la série du Teke Dere partagent de fortes affinités paléogéographiques avec les marges nord de la Paléotéthys. Des calcaires du Kubergandien en contact primaire au-dessus de la série siliciclastique a donné de riches microfaunes et -flores, également identifiées dans des galets remaniés dans la formation de Gevne du Trias supérieur de l'Aladag. L'évolution sédimentologique des séries de Köycegiz et d'Haticeana sont très similaires aux séries classiques du Pinde. Ces séquences prennent leur racine dans l'océan de Huglu-Pinde, le long de la marge passive nord anatolienne (profil turc) et de la marge de Sitia-Pinde (profil grec). Des conglomérats à la base de l'unité de Lentas au sud de la Crète (Grèce) ont donné des microfaunes et flores partageant également de fortes similitudes avec les bordures nord de la Paléotéthys. Le type de sédiments remaniés à la base d'unités de type Pinde suggère une dérivation depuis la marge active de la Paléotéthys. -Résumé grand public (non-specialized abstract) Au début du 20ème siècle, Alfred Wegener bouleverse les croyances géologiques de l'époque et publie plusieurs articles sur la dérive ou la translation des continents. En utilisant des arguments géographiques (similarités des lignes de côte), paléontologiques (faunes et flores similaires) et climatiques (dépôts tropicaux et glaciaires), Wegener explique qu'il y a plusieurs millions d'années, les terres émergées actuelles ne devaient former qu'un seul et grand continent. La fin du 20ème siècle verra l'avènement de la théorie de la tectonique des plaques suite à la reconnaissance du cycle de Wilson, des rides médio-océaniques, des anomalies magnétiques dans les océans et des sutures océaniques qui représentent les reliques d'océans disparus. Le Cycle de Wilson se caractérise par une suite d'évènements géologiques majeurs pouvant se résumer de la manière suivante : (1) séparation d'un craton continental en deux parties, créant une limite de plaque divergente. C'est ce que l'on appelle un rift; (2) développement et croissance d'un océan entre ces deux blocs. Des roches magmatiques remontent à la surface de la terre et forment une chaîne de montagne sous-marine que l'on appelle ride médio-océanique ou dorsale. L'océan continue de se développer, et des sédiments se déposent à sa surface formant la suite ophiolitique ou trinité de Steinmann; (3) après une phase d'expansion plus ou moins longue, les conditions imposées aux limites des plaques à la surface de la terre changent, et l'océan se met à se refermer par disparition progressive (subduction) de sa croûte océanique sous une croûte continentale par exemple. Ceci crée une nouvelle limite de plaque, convergente cette fois; (4) la subduction de la plaque océanique sous la plaque continentale provoque une remontée de magma formant des chaînes volcaniques à la surface de la Terre ; (5) une fois que la plaque océanique a complètement disparu, les deux blocs préalablement séparés par l'océan font collision, formant ainsi une chaîne de montagne. Les chaînes de montagnes sont de manière générale formées par un empilement plus ou moins complexe de nappes. C'est au coeur de certaines de ces nappes que se trouvent les vestiges de l'océan disparu. Un des objectifs de ce travail était la recherche de ces vestiges dans le domaine téthysien de la Méditerranée orientale. Pour ce faire, nous avons parcourus une grande partie du sud de la Turquie, nous sommes allés à Chypre, dans le Sultanat d'Oman, en Iran, en Crète, et nous avons visités quelques îles grecques du Dodécanèse. La région de la Méditerranée orientale est une zone qui a été tectoniquement très active, et qui continue de l'être de nos jours par des phénomènes de subduction (ex. les volcans de Santorin), et par des mouvements coulissants entre des plaques continentales (ex. la faille nord-anatolienne) qui donnent régulièrement lieu à des tremblements de terre. Pour le géologue, la complexité de ces zones d'étude réside dans le fait que les chaînes de montagne actuelles ne contiennent en général pas seulement les restes d'un océan, mais bien de plusieurs bassins océaniques qui se sont succédés dans l'espace et dans le temps. Les nappes qui se trouvent au sud de la Turquie et dans le Dodécanèse forment un important jalon dans la chaîne alpine qui s'étend depuis les Alpes jusque dans l'Himalaya. L'idée d'un continuum au coeur de ce système se basait principalement sur l'âge des océans et sur la reconnaissance de similarités dans l'évolution des séries sédimentaires. La localisation des vestiges de la Paléotéthys ainsi que l'identification des séries sédimentaires ayant appartenu à l'océan de HugluPinde repris sous forme de nappes en Turquie et en Grèce sont cruciales pour permettre de bonnes corrélations locales et régionales. La reconnaissance, la compréhension et l'interprétation de ces séries sédimentaires permettront d'élaborer un modèle d'évolution géodynamique régional, s'appuyant sur des faits de terrains indiscutables, et prenant en compte les contraintes globales que ce genre d'exercice implique.