Learning about Bayesian networks for forensic interpretation : An example based on the "the problem of multiple propositions"

Both, Bayesian networks and probabilistic evaluation are gaining more and more widespread use within many professional branches, including forensic science. Notwithstanding, they constitute subtle topics with definitional details that require careful study. While many sophisticated developments of probabilistic approaches to evaluation of forensic findings may readily be found in published literature, there remains a gap with respect to writings that focus on foundational aspects and on how these may be acquired by interested scientists new to these topics. This paper takes this as a starting point to report on the learning about Bayesian networks for likelihood ratio based, probabilistic inference procedures in a class of master students in forensic science. The presentation uses an example that relies on a casework scenario drawn from published literature, involving a questioned signature. A complicating aspect of that case study - proposed to students in a teaching scenario - is due to the need of considering multiple competing propositions, which is an outset that may not readily be approached within a likelihood ratio based framework without drawing attention to some additional technical details. Using generic Bayesian networks fragments from existing literature on the topic, course participants were able to track the probabilistic underpinnings of the proposed scenario correctly both in terms of likelihood ratios and of posterior probabilities. In addition, further study of the example by students allowed them to derive an alternative Bayesian network structure with a computational output that is equivalent to existing probabilistic solutions. This practical experience underlines the potential of Bayesian networks to support and clarify foundational principles of probabilistic procedures for forensic evaluation.

Nullification of small knots

in the paper we consider the nullification number of small knots with at most 9 crossings. We establish two inequalities (Corollary 2.1) relating the nullification number to other knot invariants and properties of the knot diagram. We show that these inequalities allow us to settle the nullification number for all of the 84 prime knots with at most 9 crossings.

Enquête sur la mode féminine : [plaquette de prestige] / High-Life Taylor ; [texte signé J.R.] ; [ill. de Bernard B. de Monvel, Maurice Leloir, L. Sabattier,...]

Mécénat texte imprimé : Cet ouvrage a été numérisé grâce à Myriam Lenourry

Structure of the ovaries of the Nimba otter shrew, Micropotamogale lamottei, and the Madagascar hedgehog tenrec, Echinops telfairi.

The otter shrews are members of the subfamily Potamogalinae within the family Tenrecidae. No description of the ovaries of any member of this subfamily has been published previously. The lesser hedgehog tenrec, Echinops telfairi, is a member of the subfamily Tenrecinae of the same family and, although its ovaries have not been described, other members of this subfamily have been shown to have ovaries with non-antral follicles. Examination of these two species illustrated that non-antral follicles were characteristic of the ovaries of both species, as was clefting and lobulation of the ovaries. Juvenile otter shrews range from those with only small follicles in the cortex to those with 300- to 400-microm follicles similar to those seen in non-pregnant and pregnant adults. As in other species, most of the growth of the oocyte occurred when follicles had one to two layers of granulosa cells. When larger follicles became atretic in the Nimba otter shrew, hypertrophy of the theca interna produced nodules of glandular interstitial tissue. In the tenrec, the hypertrophying theca interna cells in most large follicles appeared to undergo degeneration. Both species had some follicular fluid in the intercellular spaces between the more peripheral granulosa cells. It is suggested that this fluid could aid in separation of the cumulus from the remaining granulosa at ovulation. The protruding follicles in lobules and absence of a tunica albuginea might also facilitate ovulation of non-antral follicles. Ovaries with a thin-absent tunica albuginea and follicles with small-absent antra are widespread within both the Eulipotyphla and in the Afrosoricida, suggesting that such features may represent a primitive condition in ovarian development. Lobulated and deeply crypted ovaries are found in both groups but are not as common in the Eulipotyphla making inclusion of this feature as primitive more speculative.

Highway Applications for Rammed Aggregate Piers in Iowa Soils, TR-443, 2003

This report describes a study to evaluate Geopier® soil reinforcement technology in transportation construction. Three projects requiring settlement control were chosen for evaluation—an embankment foundation, a box culvert, and a bridge approach fill. For each project, construction observations, in situ soil testing, laboratory material characterization, and performance monitoring were carried out. For the embankment foundation project, Geopier elements were installed within and around an abutment footprint for the new I-35 overpass at the US Highway 5/Interstate 35 interchange in Des Moines, Iowa. Although the main focus of this investigation was to evaluate embankment foundation reinforcement using Geopier elements, a stone column reinforced soil provided an opportunity to compare systems. In situ testing included cone penetration tests (CPTs), pressuremeter tests (PMTs), Ko stepped blade tests, and borehole shear tests (BSTs), as well as laboratory material testing. Comparative stiffness and densities of Geopier elements and stone columns were evaluated based on full-scale modulus load tests and standard penetration tests. Vibrating wire settlement cells and total stress cells were installed to monitor settlement and stress concentration on the reinforcing elements and matrix soil. Settlement plates were also monitored by conventional optical survey methods. Results show that the Geopier system and the stone columns performed their intended functions. The second project involved settlement monitoring of a 4.2 m wide x 3.6 m high x 50 m long box culvert constructed beneath a bridge on Iowa Highway 191 south of Neola, Iowa. Geopier elements were installed to reduce total and differential settlement while ensuring the stability of the existing bridge pier foundations. Benefits of the box culvert and embankment fill included (1) ease of future roadway expansion and (2) continual service of the roadway throughout construction. Site investigations consisted of in situ testing including CPTs, PMTs, BSTs, and dilatometer tests. Consolidated drained triaxial compression tests, unconsolidated undrained triaxial compression test, oedometer tests, and Atterberg limit tests were conducted to define strength and consolidation parameters and soil index properties for classification. Vibrating wire settlement cells, total stress cells, and piezometers were installed for continuous monitoring during and after box culvert construction and fill placement. This project was successful at controlling settlement of the box culvert and preventing downdrag of the bridge foundations, but could have been enhanced by reducing the length of Geopier elements at the ends of the box culvert. This would have increased localized settlement while reducing overall differential settlement. The third project involved settlement monitoring of bridge approach fill sections reinforced with Geopier elements. Thirty Geopier elements, spaced 1.8 m apart in six rows of varying length, were installed on both sides of a new bridge on US Highway 18/218 near Charles City, Iowa. Based on the results of this project, it was determined that future applications of Geopier soil reinforcement should consider extending the elements deeper into the embankment foundation fill, not just the fill itself.

La justicia transicional

Anàlisi dels processos de transició des d'una situació, en la que s'han produït violacions dels drets humans, fins a un sistema democràtic, des del punt de vista de la justícia aplicada, que castiga els transgressors, porta la reparació a les víctimes i possibilita una reconciliació de la societat, que fonamenti i garanteixi l'estabilitat i continuïtat del nou sistema democràtic.

Enhanced-reality video fluorescence: a real-time assessment of intestinal viability.

OBJECTIVE: Our aim was to evaluate a fluorescence-based enhanced-reality system to assess intestinal viability in a laparoscopic mesenteric ischemia model. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A small bowel loop was exposed, and 3 to 4 mesenteric vessels were clipped in 6 pigs. Indocyanine green (ICG) was administered intravenously 15 minutes later. The bowel was illuminated with an incoherent light source laparoscope (D-light-P, KarlStorz). The ICG fluorescence signal was analyzed with Ad Hoc imaging software (VR-RENDER), which provides a digital perfusion cartography that was superimposed to the intraoperative laparoscopic image [augmented reality (AR) synthesis]. Five regions of interest (ROIs) were marked under AR guidance (1, 2a-2b, 3a-3b corresponding to the ischemic, marginal, and vascularized zones, respectively). One hour later, capillary blood samples were obtained by puncturing the bowel serosa at the identified ROIs and lactates were measured using the EDGE analyzer. A surgical biopsy of each intestinal ROI was sent for mitochondrial respiratory rate assessment and for metabolites quantification. RESULTS: Mean capillary lactate levels were 3.98 (SD = 1.91) versus 1.05 (SD = 0.46) versus 0.74 (SD = 0.34) mmol/L at ROI 1 versus 2a-2b (P = 0.0001) versus 3a-3b (P = 0.0001), respectively. Mean maximal mitochondrial respiratory rate was 104.4 (±21.58) pmolO2/second/mg at the ROI 1 versus 191.1 ± 14.48 (2b, P = 0.03) versus 180.4 ± 16.71 (3a, P = 0.02) versus 199.2 ± 25.21 (3b, P = 0.02). Alanine, choline, ethanolamine, glucose, lactate, myoinositol, phosphocholine, sylloinositol, and valine showed statistically significant different concentrations between ischemic and nonischemic segments. CONCLUSIONS: Fluorescence-based AR may effectively detect the boundary between the ischemic and the vascularized zones in this experimental model.

Religious coping in schizophrenia patients : spiritual support in medical care and pastoral counselling

Following an introduction focusing on the role of religion in the treatment of psychosis, the first part of this paper describes an initial study in which the role of spirituality and religiosity was assessed in 115 patients with schizophrenia in Geneva (Switzerland) and 126 in Trois-Rivières (Quebec). These themes have been shown to be highly prevalent for these patients, though their clinicians are often unaware of this prevalence. The following part of the paper presents a second study where religious supervision was offered to clinicians in Geneva. Comparison between forty patients who received spiritual assessment and opportunities to work on religious topics with their clinicians was made with thirty patients without religious intervention. In the supervisory sessions, six different types of religious interventions were suggested. Outcomes at three months show that patients of the intervention group maintain their interest for help in religious matters while clinicians' interest in integrating religious topics in discussions with their patients has decreased. The third and main part of the paper is devoted to an analysis of the suggested interventions from the viewpoint of the study of religions. Five aspects of religion are distinguished, and explanations of the reasons some of them are easier to manage for clinicians are proposed. The paper concludes with proposals for the education of clinicians to help them to differentiate different kinds of religious coping and to recognize when it could be helpful to refer the patient to a pastoral counsellor.

Liberties and constraints of the normative approach to evaluation and decision in forensic science: a discussion towards overcoming some common misconceptions

At a time when disciplined inference and decision making under uncertainty represent common aims to participants in legal proceedings, the scientific community is remarkably heterogenous in its attitudes as to how these goals ought to be achieved. Probability and decision theory exert a considerable influence, and we think by all reason rightly do so, but they go against a mainstream of thinking that does not embrace-or is not aware of-the 'normative' character of this body of theory. It is normative, in the sense understood in this article, in that it prescribes particular properties, typically (logical) coherence, to which reasoning and decision making ought to conform. Disregarding these properties can result in diverging views which are occasionally used as an argument against the theory, or as a pretext for not following it. Typical examples are objections according to which people, both in everyday life but also individuals involved at various levels in the judicial process, find the theory difficult to understand and to apply. A further objection is that the theory does not reflect how people actually behave. This article aims to point out in what sense these examples misinterpret the analytical framework in its normative perspective. Through examples borrowed mostly from forensic science contexts, it is argued that so-called intuitive scientific attitudes are particularly liable to such misconceptions. These attitudes are contrasted with a statement of the actual liberties and constraints of probability and decision theory and the view according to which this theory is normative.

Notch signaling regulates follicular helper T cell differentiation.

Follicular helper T (TFH) cells are specialized in providing help for B cell differentiation and Ab secretion. Several positive and negative regulators of TFH cell differentiation have been described but their control is not fully understood. In this study, we show that Notch signaling in T cells is a major player in the development and function of TFH cells. T cell-specific gene ablation of Notch1 and Notch2 impaired differentiation of TFH cells in draining lymph nodes of mice immunized with T-dependent Ags or infected with parasites. Impaired TFH cell differentiation correlated with deficient germinal center development and the absence of high-affinity Abs. The impact of loss of Notch on TFH cell differentiation was largely independent of its effect on IL-4. These results show a previously unknown role for Notch in the regulation of TFH cell differentiation and function with implications for the control of this T cell population.

Litteralis expositio bibliotece secundum archiepiscopum Canthuariensem. -- Moralitates super historias scolasticas. -- Glose et moralitates quorumdam librorum sacre scripture

F. 1-113; Litteralis expositio bibliotece secundum archiepiscopum Canthuariensem ; -- F. 115, Moralitates super historias scolasticas ; -- F. 143-190, Glose et moralitates quorumdam librorum sacre scripture. Manuscrit lacunaire.

Cumulative Shapes of Knotted Polymers

We investigate the influence of knotting and chirality on the shape of knotted polygons forming trefoil knots compared to unknotted polygons by aligning independent configurations along their principal inertial axes. While for six edge polygons forming trefoil knots the chiral knotted structure is revealed in the isodensity profiles, the distinct chiral signature of the trefoil is significantly diminished with 24 edges. We observe that as the number of edges in the polygons increases, the cumulative shapes of trefoil knots progressively approach the cumulative shapes for unknotted polygons.