The evaluation of time series: their scientific value and contribution to policy needs. Occasional Publication of the Marine Biological Association 22

In 2000 a Review of Current Marine Observations in relation to present and future needs was undertaken by the Inter-Agency Committee for Marine Science and Technology (IACMST). The Marine Environmental Change Network (MECN) was initiated in 2002 as a direct response to the recommendations of the report. A key part of the current phase of the MECN is to ensure that information from the network is provided to policy makers and other end-users to enable them to produce more accurate assessments of ecosystem state and gain a clearer understanding of factors influencing change in marine ecosystems. The MECN holds workshops on an annual basis, bringing together partners maintaining time-series and long-term datasets as well as end-users interested in outputs from the network. It was decided that the first workshop of the MECN continuation phase should consist of an evaluation of the time series and data sets maintained by partners in the MECN with regard to their ‘fit for purpose’ for answering key science questions and informing policy development. This report is based on the outcomes of the workshop. Section one of the report contains a brief introduction to monitoring, time series and long-term datasets. The various terms are defined and the need for MECN type data to complement compliance monitoring programmes is discussed. Outlines are also given of initiatives such as the United Kingdom Marine Monitoring and Assessment Strategy (UKMMAS) and Oceans 2025. Section two contains detailed information for each of the MECN time series / long-term datasets including information on scientific outputs and current objectives. This information is mainly based on the presentations given at the workshop and therefore follows a format whereby the following headings are addressed: Origin of time series including original objectives; current objectives; policy relevance; products (advice, publications, science and society). Section three consists of comments made by the review panel concerning all the time series and the network. Needs or issues highlighted by the panel with regard to the future of long-term datasets and time-series in the UK are shown along with advice and potential solutions where offered. The recommendations are divided into 4 categories; ‘The MECN and end-user requirements’; ‘Procedures & protocols’; ‘Securing data series’ and ‘Future developments’. Ever since marine environmental protection issues really came to the fore in the 1960s, it has been recognised that there is a requirement for a suitable evidence base on environmental change in order to support policy and management for UK waters. Section four gives a brief summary of the development of marine policy in the UK along with comments on the availability and necessity of long-term marine observations for the implementation of this policy. Policy relating to three main areas is discussed; Marine Conservation (protecting biodiversity and marine ecosystems); Marine Pollution and Fisheries. The conclusion of this section is that there has always been a specific requirement for information on long-term change in marine ecosystems around the UK in order to address concerns over pollution, fishing and general conservation. It is now imperative that this need is addressed in order for the UK to be able to fulfil its policy commitments and manage marine ecosystems in the light of climate change and other factors.

Replacing rubber plantations by rain forest in Southwest China - Who would gain and how much?

The cultivation of rubber trees in Xishuangbanna Prefecture in China’s Yunnan Province has triggered an unprecedented economic development but it is also associated with severe environmental problems. Rubber plantations are encroaching the indigenous rainforests at a large scale and a high speed in Xishuangbanna. Many rare plant and animal species are endangered by this development, the natural water management is disturbed and even the microclimate in this region has changed over the past years. The present study aims at an assessment of the environmental benefits accruing from a reforestation project partly reversing the deforestation that has taken place over the past years. To this end a Contingent Valuation survey has been conducted in Xishuangbanna to elicit local residents’ willingness to pay for this reforestation program that converts existing rubber plantations back into forest. It is shown that local people's awareness of the environmental problems caused by increasing rubber plantation is quite high and that in spite of the economic advantages of rubber plantation there is a positive willingness among the local population to contribute financially to a reduction of existing rubber plantations for the sake of a partial restoration of the local rainforest. These results could be used for the practical implementation of a PES (Payments for Eco-System Services) system for reforestation in Xishuangbanna.

Tillin, H. & Tyler-Walters, H., 2014. Assessing the sensitivity of subtidal sedimentary habitats to pressures associated with marine activities. Phase 2 Report – Literature review and sensitivity assessments for ecological groups for circalittoral and offshore Level 5 biotopes. JNCC Report No. 512B, 260 pp.

Human activities within the marine environment give rise to a number of pressures on seabed habitats. Improved understanding of the sensitivity of subtidal sedimentary habitats is required to underpin the management advice provided for Marine Protected Areas, as well as supporting other UK marine monitoring and assessment work. The sensitivity of marine sedimentary habitats to a range of pressures induced by human activities has previously been systematically assessed using approaches based on expert judgement for Defra Project MB0102 (Tillin et al. 2010). This previous work assessed sensitivity at the level of the broadscale habitat and therefore the scores were typically expressed as a range due to underlying variation in the sensitivity of the constituent biotopes. The objective of this project was to reduce the uncertainty around identifying the sensitivity of selected subtidal sedimentary habitats by assessing sensitivity, at a finer scale and incorporating information on the biological assemblage, for 33 Level 5 circalittoral and offshore biotopes taken from the Marine Habitat Classification of Britain and Ireland (Connor et al. 2004). Two Level 6 sub-biotopes were also included in this project as these contain distinctive characterising species that differentiate them from the Level 5 parent biotope. Littoral, infralittoral, reduced and variable salinity sedimentary habitats were excluded from this project as the scope was set for assessment of circalittoral and offshore sedimentary communities. This project consisted of three Phases. • Phase 1 - define ecological groups based on similarities in the sensitivity of characterising species from the Level 5 and two Level 6 biotopes described above. • Phase 2 - produce a literature review of information on the resilience and resistance of characterising species of the ecological groups to pressures associated with activities in the marine environment. • Phase 3 - to produce sensitivity assessment ‘proformas’ based on the findings of Phase 2 for each ecological group. This report outlines results of Phase 2. The Tillin et al., (2010) sensitivity assessment methodology was modified to use the best available scientific evidence that could be collated within the project timescale. An extensive literature review was compiled, for peer reviewed and grey literature, to examine current understanding about the effects of pressures from human activities on circalittoral and offshore sedimentary communities in UK continental shelf waters, together with information on factors that contribute to resilience (recovery) of marine species. This review formed the basis of an assessment of the sensitivity of the 16 ecological groups identified in Phase 1 of the project (Tillin & Tyler-Walters 2014). As a result: • the state of knowledge on the effects of each pressure on circalittoral and offshore benthos was reviewed; • the resistance, resilience and, hence, sensitivity of sixteen ecological groups, representing 96 characteristic species, were assessed for eight separate pressures; • each assessment was accompanied by a detailed review of the relevant evidence; Assessing the sensitivity of subtidal sedimentary habitats to pressures associated with human activities • knowledge gaps and sources of uncertainty were identified for each group; • each assessment was accompanied by an assessment of the quality of the evidence, its applicability to the assessment and the degree of concordance (agreement) between the evidence, to highlight sources of uncertainty as an assessment of the overall confidence in the sensitivity assessment, and finally • limitations in the methodology and the application of sensitivity assessments were outlined. This process demonstrated that the ecological groups identified in Phase 1 (Tillin & Tyler-Walters 2014) were viable groups for sensitivity assessment, and could be used to represent the 33 circalittoral and offshore sediments biotopes identified at the beginning of the project. The results of the sensitivity assessments show: • the majority of species and hence ecological groups in sedimentary habitats are sensitive to physical change, especially loss of habitat and sediment extraction, and change in sediment type; • most sedimentary species are sensitive to physical damage, e.g. abrasion and penetration, although deep burrowing species (e.g. the Dublin Bay prawn - Nephrops norvegicus and the sea cucumber - Neopentadactyla mixta) are able to avoid damaging effects to varying degrees, depending on the depth of penetration and time of year; • changes in hydrography (wave climate, tidal streams and currents) can significantly affect sedimentary communities, depending on whether they are dominated by deposit, infaunal feeders or suspension feeders, and dependant on the nature of the sediment, which is itself modified by hydrography and depth; • sedentary species and ecological groups that dominate the top-layer of the sediment (either shallow burrowing or epifaunal) remain the most sensitive to physical damage; • mobile species (e.g. interstitial and burrowing amphipods, and perhaps cumaceans) are the least sensitive to physical change or damage, and hydrological change as they are already adapted to unstable, mobile substrata; • sensitivity to changes in organic enrichment and hence oxygen levels, is variable between species and ecological groups, depending on the exact habitat preferences of the species in question, although most species have at least a medium sensitivity to acute deoxygenation; • there is considerable evidence on the effects of bottom-contact fishing practices and aggregate dredging on sedimentary communities, although not all evidence is directly applicable to every ecological group; • there is lack of detailed information on the physiological tolerances (e.g. to oxygenation, salinity, and temperature), habitat preferences, life history and population dynamics of many species, so that inferences has been made from related species, families, or even the same phylum; • there was inadequate evidence to assess the effects of non-indigenous species on most ecological groups, and Assessing the sensitivity of subtidal sedimentary habitats to pressures associated with human activities • there was inadequate evidence to assess the effects of electromagnetic fields and litter on any ecological group. The resultant report provides an up-to-date review of current knowledge about the effects of pressures resulting from human activities of circalittoral and offshore sedimentary communities. It provides an evidence base to facilitate and support the provision of management advice for Marine Protected Areas, development of UK marine monitoring and assessment, and conservation advice to offshore marine industries. However, such a review will require at least annual updates to take advantage of new evidence and new research as it becomes available. Also further work is required to test how ecological group assessments are best combined in practice to advise on the sensitivity of a range of sedimentary biotopes, including the 33 that were originally examined.

Biomonitoring of air pollutants by using lichens (Evernia prunastri) in areas between Kenitra and Mohammedia cities in Morocco.

In this study, Evernia prunastri, a lichen growing in its natural habitat in Morocco was analysed for the concentration of five heavy metals (Fe, Pb, Zn, Cu and Cr) from eleven sites between Kenitra and Mohammedia cities. The control site was Dar Essalam, an isolated area with low traffic density and dense vegetation. In the investigated areas, the concentration of heavy metals was correlated with vehicular traffic, industrial activity and urbanization. The total metal concentration was highest in Sidi Yahya, followed by Mohammedia and Bouznika. The coefficient of variation was higher for Pb and lower for Cu, Zn and Fe. The concentrations of most heavy metals in the thalli differed significantly between sites (p<0.01). Principal component analysis (PCA) revealed a significant correlation between heavy metal accumulation and atmospheric purity index. This study demonstrated also that the factors most strongly affecting the lichen flora were traffic density, the petroleum industry and paper factories in these areas. Overall, these results suggest that the index of atmospheric purity and assessment of heavy metals in lichen thalli are good indicators of the air quality at the studied sites.

Experiences and expectations: the real reason nobody likes stats

Within undergraduate psychology courses, students often have significant levels of anxiety and negative attitudes toward the statistical element. This has been attributed to poor interaction with teachers, fears about mathematical abilities, and simply being unaware of that portion of the course or its relevance to psychology. To address this, 196 undergraduate psychology students completed a survey on statistics anxiety and attitudes. Additionally, 27 different students in similar situations took part in focus group to share their experiences of introductory statistics courses. Survey results showed that fewer than half were aware of the statistics portion of their course and that the expectation was a key factor in their experiences. Qualitative feedback from the focus groups revealed much about how the teaching may or may not improve attitudes nor decrease anxiety. Findings support various broad strategies (i.e. increase awareness of statistics in psychology and confidence in success in the course) as opposed to skill-specific (better ways of teaching probability or using games to increase participation, for example) classroom interventions to improve statistics education.

Atomistic studies of <110] screw dislocation core structures and glide in γ-TiAl

The core structure of <110] superdislocations in L10 TiAl was investigated with a view to clarifying their dissociation abilities and the mechanisms by which they may become sessile by self-locking. A detailed knowledge of the fine structure of dislocations is essential in analysing the origin of the various deformation features. Atomistic simulation of the core structure and glide of the screw <110] superdislocation was carried out using a bond order potential for ?-TiAl. The core structure of the screw <110] superdislocation was examined, starting with initial unrelaxed configurations corresponding to various dislocation dissociations discussed in the literature. The superdislocation was found to possess in the screw orientation either planar (glissile) or non-planar (sessile) core structures. The response of the core configurations to externally applied shear stress was studied. Some implications were considered of the dissociated configurations and their response to externally applied stress on dislocation dynamics, including the issue of dislocation decomposition, the mechanism of locking and the orientation dependence of the dislocation substructure observed in single-phase ?-TiAl. An unexpectedly rich and complex set of candidate core structures, both planar and non-planar, was found, the cores of which may transform under applied stress with consequent violation of Schmid's law.

Encouraging and equipping students to engage critically with science in the news: what can we learn from the literature?

Many educational reforms have as one of their key goals the promotion of scientific literacy and they encourage engagement with science in the news as one aspect of this. The research indicates teachers using the news do so for a variety of reasons, sometimes with tangential links to the promotion of scientific literacy. Demonstrating the relevance of science to the world beyond the classroom or making links to socio-scientific issues and promoting discussion on ethical dilemmas are all seen as potential reasons for engaging with science–related news. However, media related issues are often not addressed. Increasingly the need for a more comprehensive approach, including, for example, teaching about media awareness in the context of science reporting, is highlighted. The steady growth of literature describing the use of science-related news along with research studies charting students’ responses to science news media has stimulated discussion and study of pedagogical issues and prompted this review. Key literature relevant to students’ engagement with science-related news reports has been contextualised and reviewed to identify core issues for teachers, teacher educators and curriculum planners. These are listed under the headings of curriculum, pedagogy and assessment, the implications are considered and directions for further research suggested.

A feasibility study on the development and integration of a teaching aid for pharmacology

Traditional methods of teaching and learning in higher education are ever-evolving. This report assesses the feasibility of developing a teaching aid for pharmacology modules. Focus groups were established to gauge student and staff opinions on the use of teaching aids and an extensive literature review was conducted. The study identifies and critically evaluates a range of possibilities that could be developed and discusses practical issues such as accessibility, inclusion and assessment, associated with these potential aids. This initial study concludes that a suitable aid could take the form of a student-led development of a wiki-type website resource that included access to case-studies giving students ‘real-life’ experience of the concepts being studied. This type of project requires considerable time and financial support; nevertheless, this idea could be extended for many drugs and could be used in any health science course.

Neonatal pain, parenting stress and interaction, in relation to cognitive and motor development at 8 and 18 months in preterm infants

Procedural pain in the neonatal intensive care unit triggers a cascade of physiological, behavioral and hormonal disruptions which may contribute to altered neurodevelopment in infants born very preterm, who undergo prolonged hospitalization at a time of physiological immaturity and rapid brain development. The aim of this study was to examine relationships between cumulative procedural pain (number of skin-breaking procedures from birth to term, adjusted for early illness severity and overall intravenous morphine exposure), and later cognitive, motor abilities and behavior in very preterm infants at 8 and 18 months corrected chronological age (CCA), and further, to evaluate the extent to which parenting factors modulate these relationships over time. Participants were N=211 infants (n=137 born preterm 32 weeks gestational age [GA] and n=74 full-term controls) followed prospectively since birth. Infants with significant neonatal brain injury (periventricular leucomalacia, grade 3 or 4 intraventricular hemorrhage) and/or major sensori-neural impairments, were excluded. Poorer cognition and motor function were associated with higher number of skin-breaking procedures, independent of early illness severity, overall intravenous morphine, and exposure to postnatal steroids. The number of skin-breaking procedures as a marker of neonatal pain was closely related to days on mechanical ventilation. In general, greater overall exposure to intravenous morphine was associated with poorer motor development at 8 months, but not at 18 months CCA, however, specific protocols for morphine administration were not evaluated. Lower parenting stress modulated effects of neonatal pain, only on cognitive outcome at 18 months.

Perceptions of the process of care among caregivers and care recipients in Dementia Care Networks

The Dementia Care Networks Study investigated 4 community-based, not-for-profit dementia care networks in Ontario, Canada. Investigators examined whether sociodemographic and health characteristics, type of support network, and amount of service use among care recipients and caregivers (n = 267 dyads) were associated with experiences with care processes. The process-of-care constructs were: family physicians' awareness of services; experiences with health care workers, and assessment and placement activities. The findings highlighted that family physicians' understanding of dementia and their ability to work with the dyad to become aware of and accept services, was an important component in the dyad's satisfaction. If caregivers received home support and the care recipients received emotional support from their social support network, they were more likely to be satisfied with their experiences with health care workers. In summary, increased awareness and provision of services were associated with more positive perceptions of network effectiveness. © 2007 Sage Publications.

Compliance with recommendations in a geriatric outreach assessment service

Objectives: to measure the extent to which the recommendations of a geriatric outreach assessment service were being followed, and to determine what patient-related factors were associated with compliance with assessment recommendations. Methods: eighty-one eligible patients or caregivers who had an assessment in a geriatric outreach service participated in a telephone interview. The interview focused on the use of health services and compliance with assessment recomendations. Patient-related variables obtained from charts included demographics, caregiver support and stability, health status and assessment recommendations. Results: overall compliance with recommendations from the geriatric outreach assessment service was 65%. Patients were less likely comply fully with recommendations if they had a high number of recommendations [odds ratio (OR) = 0.23; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.12-0.46; P = 0.0001], inadequate caregiver support (OR) = 0.212; 95% CI = 0.04 to 1.02; P = 0.0523), or the ability to transfer themselves independently (OR = 0.12; 95% CI = 0.02-0.63; P = 0.0124). They were more likely to have full compliance if they had normal vision (OR = 6.67; 95% CI = 1.22- 36.46; P = 0.0284). Conclusion: it is important to focus on key issues when developing service recommendations and on the role of the informal caregiver in facilitating compliance with them. Good communication between the patient or caregiver and the family physician and geriatric services can help to identify strategies which might improve acceptance of recommendations.

Understanding how animals fight with Lloyd Morgan's canon

Various game theory models have been used to explain animal contests. Here we attend to the presumed cognitive abilities required by these models with respect to information gathering and consequent decision making. Some, such as the hawk/dove game and self-assessment models require very limited cognitive ability. By contrast, the broadly accepted sequential assessment model requires that contestants know their own abilities and compare them with information gathered about their opponent to determine which has the greater resource-holding power. However, evidence for assessment of relative abilities is sparse and we suggest that this complex ability is probably beyond most animals. Indeed, perceptual limitations may restrict information about an individual's own displays and thus preclude comparison. We take a parsimonious view and conclude that simple summation of causal factors accounts for changes in fight motivation without requiring mutual evaluation of relative abilities. © 2012 The Association for the Study of Animal Behaviour.

Long-term neuropsychological and psychosocial outcomes of decompressive hemicraniectomy following malignant middle cerebral artery infarctions

Purpose: This study examines long-term neuropsychological and psychosocial outcomes of survivors of malignant middle cerebral artery infarction treated via decompressive hemicraniectomy. Method: A case series design facilitated a detailed analysis of the outcomes among five participants. Neuropsychological domains assessed included premorbid and current IQ, sustained, selective and divided attention, visual and auditory memory, executive functioning and visuo-spatial ability. Psychosocial domains assessed included self-rated depression, anxiety and quality of life. Participants and their main carer were asked about their retrospective view of surgery. Results: All participants showed neuropsychological impairments in multiple cognitive domains, with preserved ability in others. Effects of laterality of brain function were evident in some domains. Clinically significant depression was evident in two participants. Overall quality of life was within average limits in three of four assessed participants. Four participants retrospectively considered surgery as having been a favourable course of action. Conclusion: While neuropsychological impairments are highly likely post-surgery, preserved abilities and social support may serve a protective function against depression and an unacceptably poor quality of life. Results do not support the suggestion that decompressive hemicraniectomy following malignant middle cerebral artery infarction necessarily leads to unacceptable neuropsychological or psychosocial outcomes.