The transformed-stationary approach: a generic and simplified methodology for non-stationary extreme value analysis

Statistical approaches to study extreme events require, by definition, long time series of data. In many scientific disciplines, these series are often subject to variations at different temporal scales that affect the frequency and intensity of their extremes. Therefore, the assumption of stationarity is violated and alternative methods to conventional stationary extreme value analysis (EVA) must be adopted. Using the example of environmental variables subject to climate change, in this study we introduce the transformed-stationary (TS) methodology for non-stationary EVA. This approach consists of (i) transforming a non-stationary time series into a stationary one, to which the stationary EVA theory can be applied, and (ii) reverse transforming the result into a non-stationary extreme value distribution. As a transformation, we propose and discuss a simple time-varying normalization of the signal and show that it enables a comprehensive formulation of non-stationary generalized extreme value (GEV) and generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) models with a constant shape parameter. A validation of the methodology is carried out on time series of significant wave height, residual water level, and river discharge, which show varying degrees of long-term and seasonal variability. The results from the proposed approach are comparable with the results from (a) a stationary EVA on quasi-stationary slices of non-stationary series and (b) the established method for non-stationary EVA. However, the proposed technique comes with advantages in both cases. For example, in contrast to (a), the proposed technique uses the whole time horizon of the series for the estimation of the extremes, allowing for a more accurate estimation of large return levels. Furthermore, with respect to (b), it decouples the detection of non-stationary patterns from the fitting of the extreme value distribution. As a result, the steps of the analysis are simplified and intermediate diagnostics are possible. In particular, the transformation can be carried out by means of simple statistical techniques such as low-pass filters based on the running mean and the standard deviation, and the fitting procedure is a stationary one with a few degrees of freedom and is easy to implement and control. An open-source MAT-LAB toolbox has been developed to cover this methodology, which is available at https://github.com/menta78/tsEva/(Mentaschi et al., 2016).

Sensibilidad a la insulina mediante la prueba de tolerancia oral a la glucosa en adultos mayores en el cantón Cuenca, en el año 2015

INTRODUCCIÓN: Si se valora a tiempo la Sensibilidad a la insulina, se evitara padecer diabetes tipo 2; en los adultos mayores hay cambios como el aumento de tejido adiposo y sarcopenia, relacionados con disminución de la sensibilidad a la insulina. OBJETIVO: Determinar la sensibilidad a la insulina mediante la prueba de tolerancia oral a la glucosa en la población adulta mayor del cantón Cuenca, en el año 2015. METODOLOGÍA: Estudio descriptivo en 120 adultos mayores del cantón Cuenca; 60 casos con síndrome metabólico según el criterio ATP III y 60 casos sin síndrome metabólico. Se trata de una muestra no probabilística por conveniencia debido al costo de las pruebas de laboratorio. Se tomaron dos muestras de sangre una en ayunas y otra postprandial y se dosifico glucosa e insulina. Los datos fueron analizados en SPSS 22, Excel empleando frecuencias, porcentajes, medidas de tendencia central como mediana, promedio, medidas de dispersión, desvío stándar. RESULTADOS: El 39,2 % de adultos mayores presentó insulinemia postprandial alterada. Según el método HOMA-IR el 42 % presenta baja sensibilidad a la insulina y según el método QUICKI el 91,7 % presenta sensibilidad disminuida a la insulina. La baja sensibilidad a la insulina según género, edad y estado civil no fue significativa; en cambio con el IMC elevado se tiene más probabilidad de padecer insulinorresistencia (p=0,03) .Siendo más significativo los pacientes con síndrome metabólico aumenta dos veces la probabilidad de padecer insulinorresistencia (p=0.02, OR 2.3 IC 95% 1.09 – 4.85)

Liquid chromatographic-mass spectrometric method for determination of drug content uniformity of two commonly used dermatology medications in a split-tablet dosage form

Purpose: To develop and validate a simple, efficient and reliable Liquid chromatographic-mass spectrometric (LC-MS/MS) method for the quantitative determination of two dermatological drugs, Lamisil® (terbinafine) and Proscar® (finasteride), in split tablet dosage form. Methods: Thirty tablets each of the 2 studied medications were randomly selected. Tablets were weighed and divided into 3 groups. Ten tablets of each drug were kept intact, another group of 10 tablets were manually split into halves using a tablet cutter and weighed with an analytical balance; a third group were split into quarters and weighed. All intact and split tablets were individually dissolved in a water: methanol mixture (4:1), sonicated, filtered and further diluted with mobile phase. Optimal chromatographic separation and mass spectrometric detection were achieved using an Agilent 1200 HPLC system coupled with an Agilent 6410 triple quadrupole mass spectrometer. Analytes were eluted through an Agilent eclipse plus C8 analytical column (150 mm × 4.6 mm, 5 μm) with a mobile phase composed of solvent A (water) containing 0.1% formic acid and 5mM ammonium formate pH 7.5, and solvent B (acetonitrile mixed with water in a ratio A:B 55:45) at a flow rate of 0.8 mL min-1 with a total run time of 12 min. Mass spectrometric detection was carried out using positive ionization mode with analyte quantitation monitored by multiple reaction monitoring (MRM) mode. Results: The proposed analytical method proved to be specific, robust and adequately sensitive. The results showed a good linear fit over the concentration range of 20 - 100 ng mL-1 for both analytes, with a correlation coefficient (r2) ≥ 0.999 and 0.998 for finasteride and terbinafine, respectively. Following tablet splitting, the drug content of the split tablets fell outside of the proxy USP specification for at least 14 halves (70 %) and 34 quarters (85 %) of FIN, as well as 16 halves (80 %) and 37 quarters (92.5 %) of TBN. Mean weight loss, after splitting, was 0.58 and 2.22 % for FIN half- and quarter tablets, respectively, and 3.96 and 4.09 % for TBN half- and quarter tablets,respectively. Conclusion: The proposed LC-MS/MS method has successfully been used to provide precise drug content uniformity of split tablets of FIN and TBN. Unequal distribution of the drug on the split tablets is indicated by the high standard deviation beyond the accepted value. Hence, it is recommended not to split non-scored tablets especially, for those medications with significant toxicity

Sensibilidad a la insulina mediante la prueba de tolerancia oral a la glucosa en adultos mayores en el cantón Cuenca, en el año 2015

INTRODUCCIÓN: Si se valora a tiempo la Sensibilidad a la insulina, se evitara padecer diabetes tipo 2; en los adultos mayores hay cambios como el aumento de tejido adiposo y sarcopenia, relacionados con disminución de la sensibilidad a la insulina. OBJETIVO: Determinar la sensibilidad a la insulina mediante la prueba de tolerancia oral a la glucosa en la población adulta mayor del cantón Cuenca, en el año 2015. METODOLOGÍA: Estudio descriptivo en 120 adultos mayores del cantón Cuenca; 60 casos con síndrome metabólico según el criterio ATP III y 60 casos sin síndrome metabólico. Se trata de una muestra no probabilística por conveniencia debido al costo de las pruebas de laboratorio. Se tomaron dos muestras de sangre una en ayunas y otra postprandial y se dosifico glucosa e insulina. Los datos fueron analizados en SPSS 22, Excel empleando frecuencias, porcentajes, medidas de tendencia central como mediana, promedio, medidas de dispersión, desvío stándar. RESULTADOS: El 39,2 % de adultos mayores presentó insulinemia postprandial alterada. Según el método HOMA-IR el 42 % presenta baja sensibilidad a la insulina y según el método QUICKI el 91,7 % presenta sensibilidad disminuida a la insulina. La baja sensibilidad a la insulina según género, edad y estado civil no fue significativa; en cambio con el IMC elevado se tiene más probabilidad de padecer insulinorresistencia (p=0,03) .Siendo más significativo los pacientes con síndrome metabólico aumenta dos veces la probabilidad de padecer insulinorresistencia (p=0.02, OR 2.3 IC 95% 1.09 – 4.85).

Angiopoietin-1 promotes atherosclerosis by increasing the proportion of circulating Gr1 monocytes

Atherosclerosis is a chronic inflammatory disease occurring within the artery wall. A crucial step in atherogenesis is the infiltration and retention of monocytes into the subendothelial space of large arteries induced by chemokines and growth factors. Angiopoietin-1 (Ang-1) regulates angiogenesis and reduces vascular permeability and has also 15 been reported to promote monocyte migration in vitro. We investigated the role of Ang-1 in atherosclerosis-prone apolipoprotein-E (Apo-E) knockout mouse. Apo-E knockout (Apo-E-/-) mice fed a western or normal chow diet received a single iv injection of adenovirus encoding Ang-1 or control vector. Adenovirus-mediated systemic expression of Ang-1 induced a significant increase in early atherosclerotic lesion size and monocyte/macrophage accumulation compared with control animals receiving empty vector. Ang-1 significantly increased plasma MCP-1 and VEGF levels as measured by ELISA. FACS analysis showed that Ang-1 selectively increased inflammatory Gr1þmonocytes in the circulation, while the cell-surface 25 expression of CD11b, which mediates monocyte emigration, was significantly reduced. Ang-1 specifically increases circulating Gr1þinflammatory monocytes and increases monocyte/macrophage retention in atherosclerotic plaques, thereby contributing to development of atherosclerosis.

Imagery : correlação entre o motor imagery e as habilidades técnicas de condução de bola no futebol

Dissertação apresentada à Escola Superior de Educação do Instituto Politécnico de Castelo Branco para cumprimento dos requisitos necessários à obtenção do grau de Mestre em Atividade Física.

Riesgos psicosociales en trabajadores de una empresa agrícola y alimenticia en chile 2016.

RESUMEN INTRODUCCION: Los riesgos psicosociales en los últimos años han venido tomando importancia debido a que están íntimamente relacionados con el desarrollo de enfermedades producidas por el estrés tanto en la población general como en la comunidad trabajadora. De esta manera los riesgos psicosociales se convierten en un foco de interés cuando de prevención en el trabajo se trata. OBJETIVO: Identificar los factores de riesgo psicosocial a los cuales se encuentran expuestos los trabajadores de una empresa agrícola y alimenticia ubicada en Chile en el año 2016. MÉTODOS: Se llevó a cabo un estudio de corte transversal con datos secundarios procedentes de 194 trabajadores. Se incluyeron variables socio-demográficas, laborales y las relacionadas con el riesgo psicosocial. Como instrumento se utilizó el cuestionario ISTAS 21, que permite la evaluación y prevención de dicho riesgo, mide las dimensiones de la exposición psicosocial y de la salud, el estrés y la satisfacción. En el análisis descriptivo en las variables cuantitativas se calcularon las medidas de tendencia central media, mediana y medidas de dispersión como rango y desviación estándar. En las cualitativas se calculó la frecuencia absoluta y porcentaje, se utilizó el programa estadístico SPSS versión 22. RESULTADOS: El mínimo de edad fue de 25 y el máximo de 55 años. Los grupos etarios predominantes fueron entre 25-30 años y 36-45 años. Se observó que la mayoría de los miembros de esta organización estuvo conformada por hombres. El nivel alto de riesgo psicosocial percibido por los trabajadores por porcentaje en tres de las cinco dimensiones se registró de la siguiente manera: Trabajo activo y posibilidades de desarrollo (48.5%); apoyo social y calidad de liderazgo (52.0%) y doble presencia (52.6%). Las subdimensiones que más se vieron afectadas por el riesgo alto fueron: influencia en el trabajo (69.4%); control sobre el tiempo de trabajo (53.1%); posibilidades de desarrollo en el trabajo (50.0%); claridad de rol (66.8%); calidad de la relación con superiores (52.6%), compañeros (48.8%) y carga de tareas domésticas (50.0%). CONCLUSIONES: El nivel de riesgo psicosocial percibido por los trabajadores fue de Riesgo Alto en tres de las cinco dimensiones del cuestionario SUSESO ISTAS-21 (dimensión Trabajo activo y posibilidades de desarrollo; apoyo social y calidad de liderazgo y doble presencia). A partir de estos hallazgos se concluye que si hay presencia importante de situaciones desfavorables para la salud mental de los trabajadores y un riesgo psicosocial alto que es necesario enfrentar a través de la implementación de estrategias encaminadas a reducir el riesgo en las subdimensiones que más alto riesgo presentaron.

The infection of soybean leaves by Phakopsora pachyrhizi during conditions of discontinuous wetness.

The ability of Phakopsora pachyrhizi to cause infection under conditions of discontinuous wetness was investigated. In in vitro experiments, droplets of a uredospore suspension were deposited onto the surface of polystyrene. After an initial wetting period of either 1, 2 or 4 h, the drops were dried for different time intervals and then the wetness was restored for 11, 10 or 8 h. Germination and appressorium formation were evaluated. In in vivo experiments, soybean plants were inoculated with a uredospore suspension. Leaf wetness was interrupted for 1, 3 or 6 h after initial wetting periods of 1, 2 or 4 h. Then, the wetting was re-established for 11, 10 or 8 h, respectively. Rust severity was evaluated 14 days after inoculation. The germination of the spores and the formation of the appressoria on the soybean leaves after different periods of wetness were also quantified in vivo by scanning electron microscopy. P. pachyrhizi showed a high infective capacity during short periods of time. An interruption of wetness after 1 h caused average reductions in germination from 56 to 75% and in appressorium formation from 84 to 96%. Rust severity was lower in all of the in vivo treatments with discontinuous wetness when compared to the control plants. Rust severity was zero when the interruption of wetness occurred 4 h after the initial wetting. Wetting interruptions after 1 and 2 h reduced the average rust severity by 83 and 77%, respectively. The germination of the uredospores on the soybean leaves occurred after 2 h of wetness, with a maximum germination appearing after 4 h of wetness. Wetness interruption affected mainly the spores that had initiated the germination.

Biophysical indicators based on satellite images in an irrigated area at the São Francisco River Basin, Brazil.

The Jaíba Irrigated Perimeter is a large irrigated agriculturearea, located in the region Forest Jaíba between the SãoFrancisco and Verde Grande rivers, in the Brazilian semi-arid region. In 2014, irrigators thisthe region face losses in theinterruption of new plantings in irrigated areas due to water scarcity. The objective ofthis study is combine the modelto estimate the Monteith BIO with the SAFER algorithm in the case of obtaining ET, to analyze the dynamics of naturalvegetation and irrigated crops in water scarcity period. For application of the model are necessary data frommeteorological stations and satellite images. Were used 23satellite images of MODIS withspatial resolution of 250mand temporal 16 days, of 2014 year. For analyze the results,we used central pivots irrigation mask of Minas Geraisstate, Brazil. In areas with irrigated agriculture with central pivot, the mean values of BIO over the year 2014 were88.96 kg.ha-1.d-1. The highest values occurred between April 23 and May 8, with BIO 139 kg.ha-1.d-1. For areas withnatural vegetation, the average BIO was 88.34 kg.ha-1.d-1with lower values in September. Estimates of ET varied withthe lowest values of ET observedin natural vegetation 1,91±1,22 mm.d-1and the highest values in irrigated area isobserved 3,51±0,97 mm.d-1. Results of this study can assist in monitoring of river basins, contributing to themanagement irrigated agriculture, with the trend of scarcity of water resources and increasing conflicts for the wateruse.

The Effect of Feed and Gonadotrophin Hormone on The Litter Size and Birth Weight of Local Goat

A study was conducted to determine the effect of ration and gonadotrophin hormone on the reproductive performance of breeding goat. Twenty-three does and six bucks having a similar age (1.5-2.0 years old) were exposed in this experiment. An amount of 200 gram of concentrate consisting of yellow corn (30%), rice brand (50%) and commercial concentrate CP 235 (20%) has been given to each experimental animal. The experimental animals were divided into two groups. The group was fed (12 animals) with M1 (roughage + concentrate) and the other group was fed (11 animals) with M2 (roughage). Moreover, each group were divided into four treatment namely: T1 (PGF2α), T2 (PGF2α + PMSG), T3 (PGF2α + HCG) and T4 (PGF2α + PMSG + HCG). The same treatment was applied to the other group. The data such as litter size and birth weight were collected from each experimental goat. Those data were analyzed using a 2 x 4 factorial experiment with unequal repetition. A composition between to treatment group was done using Least Significant Design (LSD). The result of the study showed that the effect of ration and gonadotrophin hormone on litter size and birth weight didn’t show any significant difference (P>0.05). The average of litter size and birth weight from roughage + concentrate treated animal (goat) were 1.92 and 1.51 kilogram respectively. However, the average of litter size and birth weight from roughage treated group were 1.58 and 1.48 kilogram respectively. (Animal Production 5(1): 5-10 (2003) Key words : Gonadotrophin, PGF2α, PMSG, Hormone, Goat

Pedestrians Effects on Indoor MIMO-OFDM Channel Capacity

Temporal variations caused by pedestrian movement can significantly affect the channel capacity of indoor MIMOOFDM wireless systems. This paper compares systematic measurements of MIMO-OFDM channel capacity in presence of pedestrians with predicted MIMO-OFDM channel capacity values using geometric optics-based ray tracing techniques. Capacity results are presented for a single room environment using 5.2 GHz with 2x2, 3x3 and 4x4 arrays as well as a 2.45 GHz narrowband 8x8 MIMO array. The analysis shows an increase of up to 2 b/s/Hz on instant channel capacity with up to 3 pedestrians. There is an increase of up to 1 b/s/Hz in the average capacity of the 4x4 MIMO-OFDM channel when the number of pedestrians goes from 1 to 3. Additionally, an increment of up to 2.5 b/s/Hz in MIMO-OFDM channel capacity was measured for a 4x4 array compared to a 2x2 array in presence of pedestrians. Channel capacity values derived from this analysis are important in terms of understanding the limitations and possibilities for MIMO-OFDM systems in indoor populated environments.

Component reliability estimations without field data

Maintenance activities in a large-scale engineering system are usually scheduled according to the lifetimes of various components in order to ensure the overall reliability of the system. Lifetimes of components can be deduced by the corresponding probability distributions with parameters estimated from past failure data. While failure data of the components is not always readily available, the engineers have to be content with the primitive information from the manufacturers only, such as the mean and standard deviation of lifetime, to plan for the maintenance activities. In this paper, the moment-based piecewise polynomial model (MPPM) are proposed to estimate the parameters of the reliability probability distribution of the products when only the mean and standard deviation of the product lifetime are known. This method employs a group of polynomial functions to estimate the two parameters of the Weibull Distribution according to the mathematical relationship between the shape parameter of two-parameters Weibull Distribution and the ratio of mean and standard deviation. Tests are carried out to evaluate the validity and accuracy of the proposed methods with discussions on its suitability of applications. The proposed method is particularly useful for reliability-critical systems, such as railway and power systems, in which the maintenance activities are scheduled according to the expected lifetimes of the system components.

Purification of particles of subterranean clover red leaf virus using an industrial-grade cellulase

Particles of two isolates of subterranean clover red leaf virus were purified by a method in which infected plant tissue was digested with an industrial-grade cellulase, Celluclast® 2.0 L type X. The yields of virus particles using this enzyme were comparable with those obtained using either of two laboratory-grade cellulases, Cellulase type 1 (Sigma) and Driselase®. However, the specific infectivity or aphid transmissibility of the particles purified using Celluclast® was 10-100 times greater than those of preparations obtained using laboratory-grade cellulases or no enzyme. The main advantage of using Celluclast® is that at present in Australia its cost is only ca. 1% of laboratory-grade cellulases.

A modified particle swarm optimization for correlated phenomena

The wide applicability of correlation analysis inspired the development of this paper. In this paper, a new correlated modified particle swarm optimization (COM-PSO) is developed. The Correlation Adjustment algorithm is proposed to recover the correlation between the considered variables of all particles at each of iterations. It is shown that the best solution, the mean and standard deviation of the solutions over the multiple runs as well as the convergence speed were improved when the correlation between the variables was increased. However, for some rotated benchmark function, the contrary results are obtained. Moreover, the best solution, the mean and standard deviation of the solutions are improved when the number of correlated variables of the benchmark functions is increased. The results of simulations and convergence performance are compared with the original PSO. The improvement of results, the convergence speed, and the ability to simulate the correlated phenomena by the proposed COM-PSO are discussed by the experimental results.

Electrical Conductivity and Magneto-Resistance Studies on Polyaniline-Pmma Blends at Very Low Temperature

D.C. electrical conductivity of polyaniline (33%,40%) blended with PMMA was measured from 5K to 300mK. The conductivity behaviour is consistent with fluctuation induced tunneling. Magneto-resistance (MR) was measured between 300K and 2K. From 20K to 2K, a large positive MR was observed. At 2K, for low magnetic fields (<1 Tesla), a deviation from the normal H-2 behaviour was observed.