O estado como empregador de última instância: uma proposta de pleno emprego, estabilidade e condições dignas de trabalho para o Brasil

GOMES, Z. B. ; LOURENÇO, André Luís Cabral de . Atuação do Estado como empregador de última Instância: uma proposta para eliminar o desemprego estrutural do Brasil. In: Encontro Nacional de Economia Política, 13. 2008, João Pessoa/PB. Anais... João Pessoa: ENEP, 2008.

Comportamento do consumidor: um estudo do mercado imobiliário em condomínios verticais fechados na região metropolitana de Natal

The research in question looked for to establish the relation between the motivation (of the proprietor of apartment) to change itself of another one apartment, in closed vertical condominium (residential mobility) in the period of the recognition of the necessity, and the satisfaction with the apartment after consume. The universe or the population chosen for the development of the study was of proprietors of apartment in vertical condominiums located in the region metropolitan of Natal. The analysis of data was made using the techniques of linear regression and logistic regression between variables. The linear regression found relations between the motivations for housing change and the satisfaction in after consume with some attributes of the apartment. The logistic regression showed that relations between the motivations for change and the general satisfaction to the apartment exist as a whole, in the period after consumes. With regard to the motivation to change itself of a apartment for another one, some reasons shown more motivation them the others. The research found different degrees of satisfaction with certain characteristics of the apartment and degrees of no satisfaction with others. Finally the results of the research had contributed for the reply of the problem that guided the present study, therefore had obtained in such a way to find how much logistic not linear relations between the two periods purchase (recognition of the necessity and evaluation after consume) and had elucidated the process that goes since the choice the product until the satisfaction of the necessities

Educação superior em turismo: o profissional de turismo frente às competências exigidas pelo mercado de trabalho do setor hoteleiro em Natal

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior

Previsão do índice bovespa por meio de redes neurais artificiais: uma análise comparada aos métodos tradicionais de séries de tempo

Forecast is the basis for making strategic, tactical and operational business decisions. In financial economics, several techniques have been used to predict the behavior of assets over the past decades.Thus, there are several methods to assist in the task of time series forecasting, however, conventional modeling techniques such as statistical models and those based on theoretical mathematical models have produced unsatisfactory predictions, increasing the number of studies in more advanced methods of prediction. Among these, the Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) are a relatively new and promising method for predicting business that shows a technique that has caused much interest in the financial environment and has been used successfully in a wide variety of financial modeling systems applications, in many cases proving its superiority over the statistical models ARIMA-GARCH. In this context, this study aimed to examine whether the ANNs are a more appropriate method for predicting the behavior of Indices in Capital Markets than the traditional methods of time series analysis. For this purpose we developed an quantitative study, from financial economic indices, and developed two models of RNA-type feedfoward supervised learning, whose structures consisted of 20 data in the input layer, 90 neurons in one hidden layer and one given as the output layer (Ibovespa). These models used backpropagation, an input activation function based on the tangent sigmoid and a linear output function. Since the aim of analyzing the adherence of the Method of Artificial Neural Networks to carry out predictions of the Ibovespa, we chose to perform this analysis by comparing results between this and Time Series Predictive Model GARCH, developing a GARCH model (1.1).Once applied both methods (ANN and GARCH) we conducted the results' analysis by comparing the results of the forecast with the historical data and by studying the forecast errors by the MSE, RMSE, MAE, Standard Deviation, the Theil's U and forecasting encompassing tests. It was found that the models developed by means of ANNs had lower MSE, RMSE and MAE than the GARCH (1,1) model and Theil U test indicated that the three models have smaller errors than those of a naïve forecast. Although the ANN based on returns have lower precision indicator values than those of ANN based on prices, the forecast encompassing test rejected the hypothesis that this model is better than that, indicating that the ANN models have a similar level of accuracy . It was concluded that for the data series studied the ANN models show a more appropriate Ibovespa forecasting than the traditional models of time series, represented by the GARCH model

Análise da sobre-reação e sub-reação nos ativos de primeira e segunda linha do mercado acionário brasileiro

The Behavioral Finance develop as it is perceived anomalies in these markets efficient. This fields of study can be grouped into three major groups: heuristic bias, tying the shape and inefficient markets. The present study focuses on issues concerning the heuristics of representativeness and anchoring. This study aimed to identify the then under-reaction and over-reaction, as well as the existence of symmetry in the active first and second line of the Brazilian stock market. For this, it will be use the Fuzzy Logic and the indicators that classify groups studied from the Discriminant Analysis. The highest present, indicator in the period studied, was the Liabilities / Equity, demonstrating the importance of the moment to discriminate the assets to be considered "winners" and "losers." Note that in the MLCX biases over-reaction is concentrated in the period of financial crisis, and in the remaining periods of statistically significant biases, are obtained by sub-reactions. The latter would be in times of moderate levels of uncertainty. In the Small Caps the behavioral responses in 2005 and 2007 occur in reverse to those observed in the Mid-Large Cap. Now in times of crisis would have a marked conservatism while near the end of trading on the Bovespa speaker, accompanied by an increase of negotiations, there is an overreaction by investors. The other heuristics in SMLL occurred at the end of the period studied, this being a under-reaction and the other a over-reaction and the second occurring in a period of financial-economic more positive than the first. As regards the under / over-reactivity in both types, there is detected a predominance of either, which probably be different in the context in MLCX without crisis. For the period in which such phenomena occur in a statistically significant to note that, in most cases, such phenomena occur during the periods for MLCX while in SMLL not only biases are less present as there is no concentration of these at any time . Given the above, it is believed that while detecting the presence of bias behavior at certain times, these do not tend to appear to a specific type or heuristics and while there were some indications of a seasonal pattern in Mid- Large Caps, the same behavior does not seem to be repeated in Small Caps. The tests would then suggest that momentary failures in the Efficient Market Hypothesis when tested in semistrong form as stated by Behavioral Finance. This result confirms the theory by stating that not only rationality, but also human irrationality, is limited because it would act rationally in many circumstances

Eficiência e razão de hedge: uma análise dos mercados futuro brasileiros de boi, café, etanol, milho e soja

This research aims to investigate the Hedge Efficiency and Optimal Hedge Ratio for the future market of cattle, coffee, ethanol, corn and soybean. This paper uses the Optimal Hedge Ratio and Hedge Effectiveness through multivariate GARCH models with error correction, attempting to the possible phenomenon of Optimal Hedge Ratio differential during the crop and intercrop period. The Optimal Hedge Ratio must be bigger in the intercrop period due to the uncertainty related to a possible supply shock (LAZZARINI, 2010). Among the future contracts studied in this research, the coffee, ethanol and soybean contracts were not object of this phenomenon investigation, yet. Furthermore, the corn and ethanol contracts were not object of researches which deal with Dynamic Hedging Strategy. This paper distinguishes itself for including the GARCH model with error correction, which it was never considered when the possible Optimal Hedge Ratio differential during the crop and intercrop period were investigated. The commodities quotation were used as future price in the market future of BM&FBOVESPA and as spot market, the CEPEA index, in the period from May 2010 to June 2013 to cattle, coffee, ethanol and corn, and to August 2012 to soybean, with daily frequency. Similar results were achieved for all the commodities. There is a long term relationship among the spot market and future market, bicausality and the spot market and future market of cattle, coffee, ethanol and corn, and unicausality of the future price of soybean on spot price. The Optimal Hedge Ratio was estimated from three different strategies: linear regression by MQO, BEKK-GARCH diagonal model, and BEKK-GARCH diagonal with intercrop dummy. The MQO regression model, pointed out the Hedge inefficiency, taking into consideration that the Optimal Hedge presented was too low. The second model represents the strategy of dynamic hedge, which collected time variations in the Optimal Hedge. The last Hedge strategy did not detect Optimal Hedge Ratio differential between the crop and intercrop period, therefore, unlikely what they expected, the investor do not need increase his/her investment in the future market during the intercrop

O profissional da informaçao e as habilidades exigidas no mercado de trabalho emergente

Diante de um novo perfil do emprego e do mercado de trabalho - que se transforma marcadamente em face das tecnologias de informação e comunicação (TIC) há uma demanda por profissionais munidos de novas habilidades e competências. Assim, objetiva-se, de modo geral, analisar as novas habilidades demandadas pelo mercado de trabalho atual para o profissional da informação. Para tanto, busca-se especificamente, caracterizar os fatores determinantes do contexto atual; verificar o impacto das TIC no mercado de trabalho do profissional da informação; e conhecer as transformações ocorridas no perfil deste profissional frente a estas mudanças. Para alcançar os objetivos propostos recorreu-se à pesquisa bibliográfica, bem como à análise de anúncios de empregos divulgados no website Catho On-line. A análise dos dados se deu de forma comparativa entre os anos de 2003 e 2005 e, permitiu concluir que as habilidades exigidas para o profissional da informação na atualidade dizem respeito, além dos conhecimentos técnicos, a fluência em idioma estrangeiro, ao domínio da informática, aos conhecimentos gerencias e, principalmente, às habilidades interpessoais_____________________________________________________________________________Facing a new profile of the job and the labor market - that changes remarkably regarding to the new technologies of information and communication (TIC), there is a demand for professionals who posses new abilities and competences. It was aimed at, then, in general, to analyze the new abilities disputed by the labor market for the professional of information, because of the new available resources. In order to do that, it was specifically searched, to characterize the decisive factors of the current context; to verify the impact of the TIC in the labor market of the professional of information; and to know the transformations happened in the profile of these professionals before these changes. To reach the proposed objectives it was realized bibliographical research, as well as to the analysis of advertisements of jobs published in the website Catho On-line, of comparative form between the years of 2003 and 2005. The analysis of the data allowed us to conclude that the abilities demanded for the professional of information at the present time concern, besides the technical knowledge, the fluency in a foreign language, to the domain of the computer science and the managing knowledge

Estrategias defensivas en el mercado de renta variable en Colombia a la baja

El Mercado de Renta Variable en Colombia sigue estando en desarrollo, así como la confianza de los inversionistas a la hora de tomar decisiones de elección de portafolios óptimos de inversión, los cuales le brinden la maximización de los retornos esperados a un mínimo riesgo. Por lo anterior esta investigación explora y conoce más a fondo los sectores que conforman el mercado accionario y determina cual es más rentable que otro, a través del modelo propuesto por Harry Markowitz y teniendo en cuenta los avances a la teoría hecha por Sharpe a través del índice de Sharpe y Betas. Entre los sectores que conforman El Mercado de Renta Variable en Colombia está el Financiero, Materiales, Energía, Consumo Básico Servicios e Industrial; los cuales siguen la misma tendencia bajista que el Índice del Colcap, el cual en los últimos años está rentando negativamente. Por lo tanto con esta investigación el lector e inversionista cuenta con herramientas que aplican el modelo de Markowitz para vislumbrar de acuerdo a datos históricos, los sectores en los cuales se recomienda invertir y en los que por el contrario de acuerdo a la tendencia de debe desistir. Sin embargo, se aclara que esta investigación se basa en datos históricos, tendencias y cálculos matemáticos que pueden diferenciarse de la realidad actual, dado que por aspectos coyunturales económicos, políticos o sociales puede verse afectadas las rentabilidades de las acciones y sectores en los que decida invertir las personas.

Cooperativa habitacional autofinanciável :uma alternativa de mercado à escassez de financiamento

As an example of what happened in Brazil in the 90s, it s noticed in Natal a new system of cooperative housing production which is done by advancing the users resources selffinancing. This system comes as an alternative for the real state market performance since the end of the National Housing Bank (BNH), in 1986. Self-financed housing cooperatives play an important social role by contributing to own housing acquisition by low-income population, without, however, becoming a mechanism of social interest housing production. It is important to consider that Brazil registers a housing deficit of 6.6 million housing units (IBGE 2000/Census), which, compared to 1991, shows an increment of 21.7% to a growth rate of 2.2% a year. This deficit figure has been deepening, mainly with the end of the National Housing Bank (BNH). The self-financed cooperative housing production broadens around the Metropolitan Region of Natal (RMN) and remains as an alternative to the lack of financing in the housing / real state market. In general, the aim of this work is to analyze the role of self-financing housing cooperatives on the housing production in the RMN, in order to identify their role in the real state market, in the own housing promotion and in the housing policy. The Universe of this study is performance of four housing cooperatives - CHAF-RN, COOPHAB-RN, MULTHCOOP e CNH - that work through self-financing. It is considered here an amount of 38 undertakings launched between 1993 and 2002, including 8143 housing units. The methodology adopted consists of bibliographic, documental and field research. As a result, actions like brokerage, marketing, speculation, and the criteria to define places for undertakings and final products, show how close they are to the housing market production. As a matter of fact, this short distance explains why the self-financed cooperative production for social interest housing is still limited. This reinforces the theory that it is necessary to define and implement a subsidized housing policy to serve the low-income Brazilian population

Análise do mercado de trabalho para o bibliotecário na região sul do Brasil, a partir de anúncios divulgados no site Bibliovagas

Buscou-se com essa pesquisa perceber como se apresenta o mercado de trabalho do profissional bibliotecário nos estados do Paraná (PR), Rio Grande do Sul (RS) e Santa Catarina (SC), que correspondem à região sul do Brasil (isso é metodologia). A pesquisa teve como objetivo geral analisar os anúncios publicados no site Bibliovagas (http://www.bibliovagas.com.br/), e específicos identificar fatores como: número de anúncios relativos à região Sul do Brasil, média da remuneração, competências e habilidades exigidas, jornada de trabalho, setor que mais procura esse profissional (Público x privado), além de perceber outras exigências requeridas, como por exemplo: Conhecimentos intelectuais, experiência profissional, gênero, etc.. Quanto aos aspectos metodológicos, trata-se de uma pesquisa descritiva, com procedimento técnico documental e abordagem qualiquantitativa. O intervalo de pesquisa se deu entre junho de 2014 e maio de 2015. Como resultados, foram contabilizados 109 anúncios, e 113 vagas na região Sul brasileira. Como consideração destaca-se que há mercado para o profissional, e este exige além dos conhecimentos técnicos, características pessoais, psicológicas e emocionais determinadas.

O estado como empregador de última instância: uma proposta de pleno emprego, estabilidade e condições dignas de trabalho para o Brasil

GOMES, Z. B. ; LOURENÇO, André Luís Cabral de . Atuação do Estado como empregador de última Instância: uma proposta para eliminar o desemprego estrutural do Brasil. In: Encontro Nacional de Economia Política, 13. 2008, João Pessoa/PB. Anais... João Pessoa: ENEP, 2008.

Seleção e divergência genética de pessegueiros e nectarineiras e susceptibilidade a danos causados pelo frio na Estación Experimental de Aula Dei (CSIC)

The peaches and nectarines are highly appreciated by consumer, but it is climacteric fruits, with availability in the market in small time. It is necessary to invest to obtain genotypes with fruit quality and small perishability or that it presente less physiological disorders after storage. The aims of this work were i) to evaluate the genetic divergence among 40 peach and nectarine trees genotypes based on postharvest quality and select posible parents; ii) to evaluate the susceptibility to chilling injury in peaches and nectarines after cold storage; iii) to evaluate divergence of peaches and nectarines on the basis in the susceptibility for chiling injury and select superior genotypes; iv) evaluate the correlations between quality and susceptibility to chilling injury of peaches and nectarines v) select parents with the combination of lower susceptibility to chilling injury and higher quality fruit. The study was carried out in EEAD-CSIC, Zaragoza - Spain, during the production cycle 2013/2014. A total of 40 peaches and nectarines genotypes from germplasm collection were evaluated. The quality characteristics as flesh firmness, total soluble solids, titratable acidity, pH, rippining index and flesh color parameters were evaluated. The fruits were submitted to cold storage at 0 °C and 5 °C, with 95% average relative humidity. The evaluations were after 14 and 28 days, it being observed the presence of symptoms, such as wooliness through mealiness, flesh grainy, leatheriness and flesh color changes, through browning, bleeding and off flavor. As a selection parameter was adopted 20% of genotypes that had a higher frequency of superiority for quality characteristics, susceptibility to chilling injury and the combining of both. For quality characteristic presented greater divergence the ‘Queen Giant’, ‘Sudanel Blanco’ and ‘Borracho de Jarque’. Based on the quality the eight genotypes were selected, ‘Andross’, ‘San Jaime’, ‘San Lorenzo’, ‘Borracho de Jarque’, ‘Sudanell 1’, ‘Carson’, ‘Baby Gold 6’ and ‘Stanford’. All genotypes studied exhibited susceptibility to one or more symptoms caused by cold storage during 28 days, independent of temperature. For 14 days, the ‘Baby Gold 6’, ‘Flavortop’ and ‘Queen Giant’ genotypes did not show any physiological disorder caused by cold. In general, the temperature of 0 °C favored fruit postharvest conservation, it have a lower incidence and severity of symptoms caused by cold storage. The storage for 14 days contributed for the lower incidence of damage in the genotypes fruits studied. For 14 days, with both temperatures, it was observed divergence for ‘Queen Giant’, ‘Sudanell Blanco’, ‘Baby Gold 6’ ‘GF3’, ‘Baby Gold 8’, ‘Campiel’ and ‘Campiel Rojo’ genotypes. For 28 days, in the 5 °C condition, ‘Queen Giant’, ‘Big Top’, ‘Flavortop’ and ‘Redhaven’ genotypes were divergents. Based on susceptibility to chilling injury at 0 °C, the eight genotypes were selected, it being these, ‘Queen Giant’, ‘Keimoes’, ‘Flavortop’, ‘Big Top’, 'Redhaven', 'Sudanell 3', 'Bonet I' and ‘Carson’. The quality parameters as rippining index, soluble solids, firmness and titratable acidity presented correlation among them. These, also it had correlation with woolines and bowning, what it indicate that fruits with more ripening can have this symptoms more easily. The browning, mealiness, flesh grainy and off flavor variables were correlationed with the time period and temperartures, what it confirm that these symptoms are the main disorders caused by cold storage. The quality characteristics together susceptibility to chilling injury allowed selected ‘Baby Gold 6’, ‘Sarell’, ‘Keimoes’, ‘GF3’ ‘San Jaime’, ‘Big Top’, ‘Sudanell 1’, ‘Carson’, ‘Baby Gold 8’, and ‘San Lorenzo’ genotypes.

Modelo econométrico de probabilidade de fechamento dos gaps do índice futuro Bovespa

Este trabalho estuda os gaps no índice futuro Bovespa. A partir de uma base de dados diária de onze anos do índice Bovespa futuro, o trabalho apresenta dois modelos econométricos não lineares os quais possibilitaram avaliar os efeitos de mudanças em um conjunto de variáveis independentes, a dizer, o tamanho em pontos do gap, a volatilidade do índice e volume suavizado de negociações. Os resultados encontrados mostram que tamanho em pontos do gap possui efeito negativo na probabilidade de fechamento. Por sua vez, as variáveis que representam a volatilidade do índice e o volume de negociações possuem um efeito positivo no fechamento dos gaps, sendo assim, quanto mais volátil o mercado encontra-se e quanto maior o volume transacionado em um determinado dia maior a probabilidade de fechamento dos gaps. Ademais, o trabalho realiza previsões para os fechamentos dos gaps e consegue prever corretamente 68,11% dos gaps positivos e 73,71% dos gaps negativos que fecham.

Análise do mercado brasileiro de bacalhau pós anos 1989: estimando uma função demanda

O presente trabalho faz uma análise das modalidades importadas de bacalhau no período de 1989 a 2013, proporcionando uma caracterização desse mercado. Além disso, estimou-se uma função demanda por bacalhau, cujo objetivo é fornecer subsídios à tomada de decisão tanto do governo brasileiro como dos países estrangeiros responsáveis pela cadeia produtiva do bacalhau, bem como foi possível obter resultados quanto a impactos na demanda com relação às variações nos preços, renda e taxa de câmbio. Por fim, chegou-se a previsões de crescimento da demanda por bacalhau seco e salgado no Brasil.

Métodos, custos e beneficios para a implantação do índice de preço ao consumidor – IPC – no município de Rio Grande

O presente trabalho avalia um grupo de diferentes metodologias existentes no país para o Índice de Preços ao Consumidor – IPC, a fim de analisar qual IPC seria a melhor opção para ser aplicado para o município de Rio Grande e também, para outras cidades com o mesmo porte da cidade de Rio Grande. O contexto que se insere o IPC está relacionado à Teoria do Consumidor tendo em vista a questão dos gostos e preferências dos consumidores de uma determinada região frente ao conjunto orçamentário destes. A metodologia deste trabalho envolveu a contextualização das características de cada indicador, incluindo os custos de sua implantação no município de Rio Grande. O índice escolhido foi o Índice de Preços ao Consumidor Amplo – IPCA do IBGE da região metropolitana de Porto Alegre, por ele apresentar uma maior aproximação em relação aos bens consumidos na cidade de Rio Grande quando comparado com a região metropolitana de Porto Alegre, onde se constatou que somente dois bens não fazem parte da cesta riograndina, sendo eles: transporte de passageiros de trem e de avião.