Translating climate forecasts into agricultural terms: advances and challenges

Seasonal climate prediction offers the potential to anticipate variations in crop production early enough to adjust critical decisions. Until recently, interest in exploiting seasonal forecasts from dynamic climate models (e.g. general circulation models, GCMs) for applications that involve crop simulation models has been hampered by the difference in spatial and temporal scale of GCMs and crop models, and by the dynamic, nonlinear relationship between meteorological variables and crop response. Although GCMs simulate the atmosphere on a sub-daily time step, their coarse spatial resolution and resulting distortion of day-to-day variability limits the use of their daily output. Crop models have used daily GCM output with some success by either calibrating simulated yields or correcting the daily rainfall output of the GCM to approximate the statistical properties of historic observations. Stochastic weather generators are used to disaggregate seasonal forecasts either by adjusting input parameters in a manner that captures the predictable components of climate, or by constraining synthetic weather sequences to match predicted values. Predicting crop yields, simulated with historic weather data, as a statistical function of seasonal climatic predictors, eliminates the need for daily weather data conditioned on the forecast, but must often address poor statistical properties of the crop-climate relationship. Most of the work on using crop simulation with seasonal climate forecasts has employed historic analogs based on categorical ENSO indices. Other methods based on classification of predictors or weather types can provide daily weather inputs to crop models conditioned on forecasts. Advances in climate-based crop forecasting in the coming decade are likely to include more robust evaluation of the methods reviewed here, dynamically embedding crop models within climate models to account for crop influence on regional climate, enhanced use of remote sensing, and research in the emerging area of 'weather within climate'.

Translating climate forecasts into agricultural terms: advances and challenges

Seasonal climate prediction offers the potential to anticipate variations in crop production early enough to adjust critical decisions. Until recently, interest in exploiting seasonal forecasts from dynamic climate models (e.g. general circulation models, GCMs) for applications that involve crop simulation models has been hampered by the difference in spatial and temporal scale of GCMs and crop models, and by the dynamic, nonlinear relationship between meteorological variables and crop response. Although GCMs simulate the atmosphere on a sub-daily time step, their coarse spatial resolution and resulting distortion of day-to-day variability limits the use of their daily output. Crop models have used daily GCM output with some success by either calibrating simulated yields or correcting the daily rainfall output of the GCM to approximate the statistical properties of historic observations. Stochastic weather generators are used to disaggregate seasonal forecasts either by adjusting input parameters in a manner that captures the predictable components of climate, or by constraining synthetic weather sequences to match predicted values. Predicting crop yields, simulated with historic weather data, as a statistical function of seasonal climatic predictors, eliminates the need for daily weather data conditioned on the forecast, but must often address poor statistical properties of the crop-climate relationship. Most of the work on using crop simulation with seasonal climate forecasts has employed historic analogs based on categorical ENSO indices. Other methods based on classification of predictors or weather types can provide daily weather inputs to crop models conditioned on forecasts. Advances in climate-based crop forecasting in the coming decade are likely to include more robust evaluation of the methods reviewed here, dynamically embedding crop models within climate models to account for crop influence on regional climate, enhanced use of remote sensing, and research in the emerging area of 'weather within climate'.

Lean construction: Arenas of enactment, models of diffusion and the meaning of 'leanness'

The existing literature on lean construction is overwhelmingly prescriptive with little recognition of the social and politicised nature of the diffusion process. The prevailing production-engineering perspective too often assumes that organizations are unitary entities where all parties strive for the common goal of 'improved performance'. An alternative perspective is developed that considers the diffusion of lean construction across contested pluralistic arenas. Different actors mobilize different storylines to suit their own localized political agendas. Multiple storylines of lean construction continuously compete for attention with other management fashions. The conceptualization and enactment of lean construction therefore differs across contexts, often taking on different manifestations from those envisaged. However, such localized enactments of lean construction are patterned and conditioned by pre-existing social and economic structures over which individual managers have limited influence. Taking a broader view, 'leanness' can be conceptualized in terms of a quest for structural flexibility involving restructuring, downsizing and outsourcing. From this perspective, the UK construction industry can be seen to have embarked upon leaner ways of working in the mid-1970s, long before the terminology of lean thinking came into vogue. Semi-structured interviews with construction sector policy-makers provide empirical support for the view that lean construction is a multifaceted concept that defies universal definition.

Assessing the natural ventilation cooling potential of office buildings in different climate zones in China

This paper presents an investigation of the natural ventilation cooling potential (NVCP) of office buildings in the five generally recognised climate zones in China using the Thermal Resistance Ventilation (TRV) model, which is a simplified, coupled, thermal and airflow model. The acceptable operative temperature for naturally conditioned space supplied by the ASHARE Standard 55-2004 has been used for the comfort temperature setting. Dynamic simulations for a typical office room in the five representative cities, which are Harbin, Beijing, Shanghai, Kunming and Guangzhou, have been carried out. The study demonstrates that the NVCP depends on the multiple impacts of climate, the building's thermal characteristics, internal gains, ventilation profiles and regimes. The work shows how the simplified method can be used to generate detailed, indoor, operative temperature data based on the various building conditions and control profiles which are used to investigate the NVCP at the strategic design stage. The simulation results presented in this paper can be used as a reference guideline for natural ventilation design in China.

Effect of apoE genotype and vitamin E on biomarkers of oxidative stress in cultured neuronal cells and the brain of targeted replacement mice

The aetiology of apoE4 genotype-Alzheimer's disease (AD) association are complex. The current study emphasizes the impact of apoE genotype and potential beneficial effects of vitamin E (VE) in relation to oxidative stress. Agonist induced neuronal cell death was examined 1) in the presence of conditioned media containing equal amounts of apoE3 or apoE4 obtained from stably transfected macrophages, and 2) after pretreatment with alpha- and gamma-tocopherol, and -tocotrienol. ApoE3 and apoE4 transgenic mice were fed a diet poor or rich in VE to study the interplay of both apoE genotype and VE status, on membrane lipid peroxidation, antioxidative enzyme activity and glutathione levels in the brain. Cytotoxicity of hydrogen peroxide and glutamate was higher in neuronal cells cultured with apoE4 than apoE3 conditioned media. VE pre-treatment of neurons counteracted the cytotoxicity of a peroxide challenge but not of nitric oxide. No significant effects of apoE genotype or VE supplementation were observed on lipid peroxidation or antioxidative status in the brain of apoE3 and apoE4 mice. VE protects against oxidative insults in vitro, however, no differences in brain oxidative status were observed in mice. Unlike in cultured cells, apoE4 may not contribute to higher neuronal oxidative stress in the brain of young targeted replacement mice.

Milling performance of north European hull-less barleys and characterization of resultant millstreams

Four hull-less barley samples were milled on a Buhler MLU 202 laboratory mill and individual and combined milling fractions were characterized. The best milling performance was obtained when the samples were conditioned to 14.3% moisture. Yields were 37-48% for straight-run flour, 47-56% for shorts, and 5-8% for bran. The beta-glucan contents of the straight-run white flours were 1.6-2.1%, of which approximate to49% was water-extractable. The arabinoxylan contents were 1.2-1.5%, of which approximate to17% was water-extractable. Shorts and bran fractions contained more beta-glucan (4.2-5.8% and 3.0-4.7%, respectively) and arabinoxylan (6.1-7.7% and 8.1-11.8%, respectively) than the white flours. For those fractions, beta-glucan extractability was high (58.5 and 52.3%, respectively), whereas arabinoxylan extractability was very low (approximate to6.5 and 2.0%, respectively). The straight-run white flours had low alpha-amylase, beta-glucanase, and endoxylanase activities. The highest alpha-amylase activity was found in the shorts fractions and the highest beta-glucanase and endoxylanase activities were generally found in the bran fractions. Endoxylanase inhibitor activities were low in the white flours and highest in the shorts fractions. High flavanoid, tocopherol, and tocotrienol contents were found in bran and shorts fractions.

Probability density estimation with tunable kernels using orthogonal forward regression

A generalized or tunable-kernel model is proposed for probability density function estimation based on an orthogonal forward regression procedure. Each stage of the density estimation process determines a tunable kernel, namely, its center vector and diagonal covariance matrix, by minimizing a leave-one-out test criterion. The kernel mixing weights of the constructed sparse density estimate are finally updated using the multiplicative nonnegative quadratic programming algorithm to ensure the nonnegative and unity constraints, and this weight-updating process additionally has the desired ability to further reduce the model size. The proposed tunable-kernel model has advantages, in terms of model generalization capability and model sparsity, over the standard fixed-kernel model that restricts kernel centers to the training data points and employs a single common kernel variance for every kernel. On the other hand, it does not optimize all the model parameters together and thus avoids the problems of high-dimensional ill-conditioned nonlinear optimization associated with the conventional finite mixture model. Several examples are included to demonstrate the ability of the proposed novel tunable-kernel model to effectively construct a very compact density estimate accurately.

A robust non-orthogonal space-time block code for four transmit antennas

Several non-orthogonal space-time block coding (NO-STBC) schemes have recently been proposed to achieve full rate transmission. Some of these schemes, however, suffer from weak robustness: their channel matrices will become ill conditioned in the case of highly correlated channels (HCC). To address this issue, this paper derives a family of robust NO-STBC schemes for four Tx antennas based on the worst case of HCC. These codes turned out to be a superset of Jafarkhani's quasi-orthogonal STBC codes. A computationally affordable linear decoder is also proposed. Although these codes achieve a similar performance to the non-robust schemes under normal channel conditions, they offer a strong robustness against HCC (although possibly yielding a poorer performance). Finally, computer simulations are presented to verify the algorithm design.

Conditioning and preconditioning of the variational data assimilation problem

Numerical weather prediction (NWP) centres use numerical models of the atmospheric flow to forecast future weather states from an estimate of the current state. Variational data assimilation (VAR) is used commonly to determine an optimal state estimate that miminizes the errors between observations of the dynamical system and model predictions of the flow. The rate of convergence of the VAR scheme and the sensitivity of the solution to errors in the data are dependent on the condition number of the Hessian of the variational least-squares objective function. The traditional formulation of VAR is ill-conditioned and hence leads to slow convergence and an inaccurate solution. In practice, operational NWP centres precondition the system via a control variable transform to reduce the condition number of the Hessian. In this paper we investigate the conditioning of VAR for a single, periodic, spatially-distributed state variable. We present theoretical bounds on the condition number of the original and preconditioned Hessians and hence demonstrate the improvement produced by the preconditioning. We also investigate theoretically the effect of observation position and error variance on the preconditioned system and show that the problem becomes more ill-conditioned with increasingly dense and accurate observations. Finally, we confirm the theoretical results in an operational setting by giving experimental results from the Met Office variational system.

An integrated dynamic whole life costing analysis for air distribution systems

Air distribution systems are one of the major electrical energy consumers in air-conditioned commercial buildings which maintain comfortable indoor thermal environment and air quality by supplying specified amounts of treated air into different zones. The sizes of air distribution lines affect energy efficiency of the distribution systems. Equal friction and static regain are two well-known approaches for sizing the air distribution lines. Concerns to life cycle cost of the air distribution systems, T and IPS methods have been developed. Hitherto, all these methods are based on static design conditions. Therefore, dynamic performance of the system has not been yet addressed; whereas, the air distribution systems are mostly performed in dynamic rather than static conditions. Besides, none of the existing methods consider any aspects of thermal comfort and environmental impacts. This study attempts to investigate the existing methods for sizing of the air distribution systems and proposes a dynamic approach for size optimisation of the air distribution lines by taking into account optimisation criteria such as economic aspects, environmental impacts and technical performance. These criteria have been respectively addressed through whole life costing analysis, life cycle assessment and deviation from set-point temperature of different zones. Integration of these criteria into the TRNSYS software produces a novel dynamic optimisation approach for duct sizing. Due to the integration of different criteria into a well- known performance evaluation software, this approach could be easily adopted by designers in busy nature of design. Comparison of this integrated approach with the existing methods reveals that under the defined criteria, system performance is improved up to 15% compared to the existing methods. This approach is interpreted as a significant step forward reaching to the net zero emission building in future.

Bistability through triadic closure

We propose and analyse a class of evolving network models suitable for describing a dynamic topological structure. Applications include telecommunication, on-line social behaviour and information processing in neuroscience. We model the evolving network as a discrete time Markov chain, and study a very general framework where, conditioned on the current state, edges appear or disappear independently at the next timestep. We show how to exploit symmetries in the microscopic, localized rules in order to obtain conjugate classes of random graphs that simplify analysis and calibration of a model. Further, we develop a mean field theory for describing network evolution. For a simple but realistic scenario incorporating the triadic closure effect that has been empirically observed by social scientists (friends of friends tend to become friends), the mean field theory predicts bistable dynamics, and computational results confirm this prediction. We also discuss the calibration issue for a set of real cell phone data, and find support for a stratified model, where individuals are assigned to one of two distinct groups having different within-group and across-group dynamics.

Building the foundations for a market-oriented planning system in Bulgaria

Planning is highly conditioned by the relationships between the market, state and politics. This becomes particularly clear in looking at the changes taking place in the countries of the former Communist block as they attempt to establish a new set of relationships. The old power structures have been dislodged and old laws discarded. This paper examines the situation in Bulgaria and explores the preconditions for setting up a new planning system there. The first section outlines the political changes since 1989 and shows how political instability has effected the pace of change. The establishment of a market in land and property is a second precondition for the planning system there and moves in this direction are presented, including restitution policies. Finally the issues raised by the early attempts towards a new planning system are discussed. This paper is the first of a series looking at the countries of Eastern Europe and the author would welcome comments from others working in this field.

How reward modulates mimicry: EMG evidence of greater automatic facial mimicry of more rewarding faces

Spontaneous mimicry is a marker of empathy. Conditions characterized by reduced spontaneous mimicry (e.g., autism) also display deficits in sensitivity to social rewards. We tested if spontaneous mimicry of socially rewarding stimuli (happy faces) depends on the reward value of stimuli in 32 typical participants. An evaluative conditioning paradigm was used to associate different reward values with neutral target faces. Subsequently, electromyographic activity over the Zygomaticus Major was measured whilst participants watched video clips of the faces making happy expressions. Higher Zygomaticus Major activity was found in response to happy faces conditioned with high reward versus low reward. Moreover, autistic traits in the general population modulated the extent of spontaneous mimicry of happy faces. This suggests a link between reward and spontaneous mimicry and provides a possible underlying mechanism for the reduced response to social rewards seen in autism.

Robust pole assignment in linear state feedback

Numerical methods are described for determining robust, or well-conditioned, solutions to the problem of pole assignment by state feedback. The solutions obtained are such that the sensitivity of the assigned poles to perturbations in the system and gain matrices is minimized. It is shown that for these solutions, upper bounds on the norm of the feedback matrix and on the transient response are also minimized and a lower bound on the stability margin is maximized. A measure is derived which indicates the optimal conditioning that may be expected for a particular system with a given set of closed-loop poles, and hence the suitability of the given poles for assignment.

Comments, with reply, on "Computational algorithms for pole assignment" by N.K. Nichols

Some points of the paper by N.K. Nichols (see ibid., vol.AC-31, p.643-5, 1986), concerning the robust pole assignment of linear multiinput systems, are clarified. It is stressed that the minimization of the condition number of the closed-loop eigenvector matrix does not necessarily lead to robustness of the pole assignment. It is shown why the computational method, which Nichols claims is robust, is in fact numerically unstable with respect to the determination of the gain matrix. In replying, Nichols presents arguments to support the choice of the conditioning of the closed-loop poles as a measure of robustness and to show that the methods of J Kautsky, N. K. Nichols and P. VanDooren (1985) are stable in the sense that they produce accurate solutions to well-conditioned problems.