"La sostenibilidad de los proyectos de desarrollo alternativo en Colombia: el caso del proyecto B-91 de UNODC"

Este artículo busca evaluar la sostenibilidad de un proyecto de desarrollo alternativo realizado por la Oficina de las Naciones Unidas Contra la Droga y el Delito en Colombia (UNODC) una vez que esta institución se retiró de la zona de implementación del proyecto. El proyecto analizado se llevó a cabo en 30 municipios entre los años 1997 y 2003. Para determinar si este proyecto fue sostenible, se realizó una breve introducción al tema de la evaluación de proyectos de inversión pública, se delimitó el concepto de desarrollo y se contextualizó el concepto de desarrollo alternativo en Colombia. En el estudio empírico se escogieron cinco indicadores para evaluar la sostenibilidad del proyecto: número de familias asociadas, número de hectáreas erradicadas, ingresos de la organización campesina, cantidad de producción lícita y número de hectáreas sembradas. Estos indicadores fueron contrastados entre el año 2003 – fecha de finalización del proyecto – y el año 2006 para determinar su comportamiento en el mediano plazo, luego de 3 años de haber finalizado las actividades de UNODC en el proyecto. Se encontró finalmente, con base en la comparación de dichos indicadores, que este proyecto es sostenible, con base en los indicadores utilizados, pero que debido a la forma como está planteada la política anti-drogas en Colombia el impacto de estas experiencias exitosas en el problema general de los cultivos ilícitos en el país es muy reducido.

A prediction model for establishing the disability degree in adults with spinal cord injury: results based on WHO-DAS II perspective

Objective: To establish a prediction model of the degree of disability in adults with Spinal CordInjury (SCI ) based on the use of the WHO-DAS II . Methods: The disability degree was correlatedwith three variable groups: clinical, sociodemographic and those related with rehabilitation services.A model of multiple linear regression was built to predict disability. 45 people with sci exhibitingdiverse etiology, neurological level and completeness participated. Patients were older than 18 andthey had more than a six-month post-injury. The WHO-DAS II and the ASIA impairment scale(AIS ) were used. Results: Variables that evidenced a significant relationship with disability were thefollowing: occupational situation, type of affiliation to the public health care system, injury evolutiontime, neurological level, partial preservation zone, ais motor and sensory scores and number ofclinical complications during the last year. Complications significantly associated to disability werejoint pain, urinary infections, intestinal problems and autonomic disreflexia. None of the variablesrelated to rehabilitation services showed significant association with disability. The disability degreeexhibited significant differences in favor of the groups that received the following services: assistivedevices supply and vocational, job or educational counseling. Conclusions: The best predictiondisability model in adults with sci with more than six months post-injury was built with variablesof injury evolution time, AIS sensory score and injury-related unemployment.

An artificial economy based on reinforcement learning and agent based modeling

In this paper, we employ techniques from artificial intelligence such as reinforcement learning and agent based modeling as building blocks of a computational model for an economy based on conventions. First we model the interaction among firms in the private sector. These firms behave in an information environment based on conventions, meaning that a firm is likely to behave as its neighbors if it observes that their actions lead to a good pay off. On the other hand, we propose the use of reinforcement learning as a computational model for the role of the government in the economy, as the agent that determines the fiscal policy, and whose objective is to maximize the growth of the economy. We present the implementation of a simulator of the proposed model based on SWARM, that employs the SARSA(λ) algorithm combined with a multilayer perceptron as the function approximation for the action value function.

Industrial Organization: a Contract Based approach

Industrial Organization, a Contract Based approach (aka IOCB) offers an extensive and an up-to-date panorama of Industrial Organization. It is aimed at advanced undergraduates, graduates, academics and practitioners with an interest in the field. The analysis of market interactions, business strategies and public policy is performed using the standard framework of game theory and the recent advances of contract theory and information economics

Gradient-based reinforcement learning techniques for underwater robotics behavior learning

Darrerament, l'interès pel desenvolupament d'aplicacions amb robots submarins autònoms (AUV) ha crescut de forma considerable. Els AUVs són atractius gràcies al seu tamany i el fet que no necessiten un operador humà per pilotar-los. Tot i això, és impossible comparar, en termes d'eficiència i flexibilitat, l'habilitat d'un pilot humà amb les escasses capacitats operatives que ofereixen els AUVs actuals. L'utilització de AUVs per cobrir grans àrees implica resoldre problemes complexos, especialment si es desitja que el nostre robot reaccioni en temps real a canvis sobtats en les condicions de treball. Per aquestes raons, el desenvolupament de sistemes de control autònom amb l'objectiu de millorar aquestes capacitats ha esdevingut una prioritat. Aquesta tesi tracta sobre el problema de la presa de decisions utilizant AUVs. El treball presentat es centra en l'estudi, disseny i aplicació de comportaments per a AUVs utilitzant tècniques d'aprenentatge per reforç (RL). La contribució principal d'aquesta tesi consisteix en l'aplicació de diverses tècniques de RL per tal de millorar l'autonomia dels robots submarins, amb l'objectiu final de demostrar la viabilitat d'aquests algoritmes per aprendre tasques submarines autònomes en temps real. En RL, el robot intenta maximitzar un reforç escalar obtingut com a conseqüència de la seva interacció amb l'entorn. L'objectiu és trobar una política òptima que relaciona tots els estats possibles amb les accions a executar per a cada estat que maximitzen la suma de reforços totals. Així, aquesta tesi investiga principalment dues tipologies d'algoritmes basats en RL: mètodes basats en funcions de valor (VF) i mètodes basats en el gradient (PG). Els resultats experimentals finals mostren el robot submarí Ictineu en una tasca autònoma real de seguiment de cables submarins. Per portar-la a terme, s'ha dissenyat un algoritme anomenat mètode d'Actor i Crític (AC), fruit de la fusió de mètodes VF amb tècniques de PG.

Establishing a community of practice of researchers, practitioners, policy-makers and communities to sustainably manage environmental health risks in Ecuador

The Sustainably Managing Environmental Health Risk in Ecuador project was launched in 2004 as a partnership linking a large Canadian university with leading Cuban and Mexican institutes to strengthen the capacities of four Ecuadorian universities for leading community-based learning and research in areas as diverse as pesticide poisoning, dengue control, water and sanitation, and disaster preparedness. By 2009, train-the-trainer project initiation involved 27 participatory action research Master’s theses in 15 communities where 1200 community learners participated in the implementation of associated interventions. This led to establishment of innovative Ecuadorian-led master’s and doctoral programs, and a Population Health Observatory on Collective Health, Environment and Society for the Andean region based at the Universidad Andina Simon Bolivar. Building on this network, numerous initiatives were begun, such as an internationally funded research project to strengthen dengue control in the coastal community of Machala, and establishment of a local community eco-health centre focusing on determinants of health near Cuenca. Alliances of academic and non-academic partners from the South and North provide a promising orientation for learning together about ways of addressing negative trends of development. Assessing the impacts and sustainability of such processes, however, requires longer term monitoring of results and related challenges.

Compositional effects on productivity, labour cost and export adjustments. Bruegel Policy Contribution 2012/11, June 2012

Sectoral shifts, such as shrinkage of low labour productivity and the low-wage construction sector, can lead to apparent increased aggregate average labour productivity and average wages, especially when capital intensity differs across sectors. For 11 main sectors and 13 manufacturing sub-sectors, we quantify the compositional effects on productivity, wages and unit labour costs (ULCs) based and real effective exchange rates (REER), for 24 EU countries. Compositional effects are greatest in Ireland, where the pharmaceutical sector drives the growth of output and productivity, but other sectors have suffered greatly and have not yet recovered. Our new ULC-REER measurements, which are free from compositional effects, correlate well with export performance. Among the countries facing the most severe external adjustment challenges, Lithuania, Portugal and Ireland have been the most successful based on five indicators, and Latvia, Estonia and Greece the least successful. There is evidence of downward wage flexibility in some countries, but wage cuts have corrected just a small fraction of pre-crisis wage rises and came with massive reductions in employment even in the business sector excluding construction and real estate, highlighting the difficulty of adjusting wages downward.

Pre-empting technical barriers in the Single Market. CEPS Policy Brief No. 277, 11 July 2012

Effective enforcement and compliance with EU law is not just a legal necessity, it is also of economic interest since the potential of the Single Market will be fully exploited. Enforcement barriers generate unjustified costs and hindrances or uncertainty for cross-border business and might deprive consumers from receiving the full benefit of greater choice and/or cheaper offers. The EU has developed several types of enforcement efforts (preventive initiatives, pre-infringement initiatives and formal infringement procedures). More recently, the emphasis has been placed on effective prevention. This CEPS Policy Brief analyses the functioning of one preventive mechanism (the 98/34 Directive) and assesses its potential to detect and prevent technical or other barriers in the course of the last 25 years. Based on an empirical approach, it shows that this amazing mechanism has successfully prevented thousands of new technical barriers from arising in the internal goods market.

Can Italy and Spain survive rates of 6-7%? CEPS Policy Brief No. 279, 27 July 2012

The sentiment that the euro is now in real danger is based in large part on the widespread conviction that interest rates of 6-7% are simply unsustainable for both Italy and Spain., After taking a closer look at the fundamentals, however, Daniel Gros concludes in this new Policy Brief that both countries should be able to live with this level of interest rates for quite some time, but only if they mobilize domestic savings, which remain strong in both countries. For Spain, some debt/equity swaps are also needed.

A sovereign wealth fund to lift Germany's curse of excess savings. CEPS Policy Brief No. 280, 28 August 2012

As an alternative to the present system of intermediation of the German savings surplus, this paper suggests that the risk-adjusted rate of return could be improved by creating a sovereign wealth fund for Germany (designated DESWF), which could invest excess German savings globally. Such a DESWF would offer German savers a secure vehicle paying a guaranteed positive minimum real interest rate, with a top-up when real investment returns allowed. The vehicle would invest the funds in a portfolio that is highly diversified by geography and asset classes. Positive real returns can be expected in the long run based on positive real global growth. Since, in this case, a significant amount of funds would flow outside the euro area, the euro would depreciate, which would help crisis countries presently struggling to revive growth through exports and to close their external deficits so as to recoup their international credit-worthiness. Target imbalances would gradually disappear and German claims abroad would move from nominal claims on the ECB to diversified real and nominal claims on various private and public foreign entities in a variety of asset classes.

A European Deposit Insurance and Resolution Fund - An Update. CEPS Policy Brief No. 283, 11 September 2012

Cross-border banking is currently not stable in Europe. Cross-border banks need a European safety net. Moreover, a truly integrated European level banking system may help to break the diabolical loop between the solvency of the domestic banking system and the fiscal standing of the national sovereign. This policy paper first sketches the building blocks of a banking union. Importantly, a new European Deposit Insurance and Resolution Authority (EDIRA) should start simultaneously with the ECB assuming supervisory powers. A combination of European supervision and local resolution cannot work because it is not ‘incentive compatible’. Next, this paper proposes a transition period to gradually phase in the European deposit insurance coverage. Finally, we calculate that a European Deposit Insurance Fund would amount to about €30-50 billion for the 75 euro area banks that were subject to the EBA stress tests. This Fund could be created over a period of time through risk-based deposit insurance premiums levied on these banks. Once up and running, the Fund would then turn into a European Deposit Insurance and Resolution Fund to also deal with the resolution of one or more of these European banks.

The long-term EU budget: size or flexibility? Bruegel Policy Contribution 2012/20, November 2012

The EU is in the process of negotiating its 2014-20 financial framework. Failure to reach an agreement would imply a delay in the preparation of the strategic plans each member state puts together to explain how it will use Structural and Cohesion Funds. Even if solutions are found – for example annual renewals of the budget based on the previous year's figures – there will be political and institutional costs. EU leaders have too often and too forcefully advocated the use of the EU budget for growth to be able to drop the idea without consequences. • The overwhelming attention paid to the size of the budget is misplaced. EU leaders should instead aim to make the EU budget more flexible, safeguard it from future political power struggles, and reinforce assessment of the impact of EU funded growth policies. • To improve flexibility a commitment device should be created that places the EU budget above continuous political disagreement. We suggest the creation of a European Growth Fund, on the basis of which the European Commission should be allowed to borrow on capital markets to anticipate pre-allocated EU expenditure, such as Structural and Cohesion Funds. Markets would thus be a factor in EU budget policymaking, with a potentially disciplining effect. Attaching conditionality to this type of disbursement appears legitimate, as capital delivered in this way is a form of assistance.

The European Union’s Role in the Formation of India’s Climate Change Policy. Bruges Regional Integration & Global Governance Papers 2/2012, September 2012

This paper focuses on the role of the European Union (EU) in the formation of India’s climate change policy; an increasingly high profile issue area. It is based on an extensive study of relevant literature, EU-India policy documents and the execution of thirteen semi-structured interviews with experts; many of whom have experienced EU-India cooperation on climate change first-hand. A three-point typology will be used to assess the extent of the EU’s leadership role, supporting role or equal partnership role in India, with several sub-roles within these categories. Further, for clarity and chronology purposes, three time periods will be distinguished to assess how India’s climate policy has evolved over time, alongside the EU’s role within that. The findings of the paper confirm that the EU has demonstrated signs of all three roles to some degree, although the EU-India relationship in climate policy is increasingly an equal partnership. It offers explanations for previous shortcomings in EU-India climate policy as well as policy recommendations to help ensure more effective cooperation and implementation of policies.

Performance of long-term care systems in Europe. ENEPRI Policy Brief No. 13, December 2012

The evaluation of long-term care (LTC) systems carried out in Work Package 7 of the ANCIEN project shows which performance criteria are important and – based on the available information – how European countries score on those criteria. This paper summarises the results and discusses the policy implications. An overall evaluation was carried out for four representative countries: Germany, the Netherlands, Spain and Poland. Of the four countries, the Dutch system has the highest scores on quality of life of LTC users, quality of care and equity of the LTC system, and it performs the secondbest after Poland in terms of the total burden of care (consisting of the financial burden and the burden of informal caregiving). The German system has somewhat lower scores than the Dutch on all four dimensions. The Polish system excels in having a low total burden of care, but it scores the lowest on quality of care and equity. The Spanish system has few extreme scores. Some important lessons are the following. The performance of a LTC system is a complex concept where many dimensions have to be included. Specifically, the impact of informal caregiving on the caregivers and on society should not be forgotten. The role of the state in funding and organising LTC versus individual responsibilities is one of the most important differences among countries. Choices concerning private funding and the role of informal care have a large effect not only on the public expenditures but also on the fairness of the system. International research into the relative preferences for the different performance criteria could produce a sound basis for the weights used in the overall evaluation.

Options for a Euro-area fiscal capacity. Bruegel Policy Brief 2013/01, January 2013

Europe has responded to the crisis with strengthened budgetary and macroeconomic surveillance, the creation of the European Stability Mechanism, liquidity provisioning by resilient economies and the European Central Bank and a process towards a banking union. However, a monetary union requires some form of budget for fiscal stabilisation in case of shocks, and as a backstop to the banking union. This paper compares four quantitatively different schemes of fiscal stabilisation and proposes a new scheme based on GDP-indexed bonds. The options considered are: (i) A federal budget with unemployment and corporate taxes shifted to euro-area level; (ii) a support scheme based on deviations from potential output;(iii) an insurance scheme via which governments would issue bonds indexed to GDP, and (iv) a scheme in which access to jointly guaranteed borrowing is combined with gradual withdrawal of fiscal sovereignty. Our comparison is based on strong assumptions. We carry out a preliminary, limited simulation of how the debt-to-GDP ratio would have developed between 2008-14 under the four schemes for Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain and an ‘average’ country.The schemes have varying implications in each case for debt sustainability