The private memory of aggregate shocks

We study constrained efficient aggregate risk sharing and its consequence for the behavior of macro-aggregates in a dynamic Mirrlees’s (1971) setting. Privately observed idiosyncratic productivity shocks are assumed to be independent of i.i.d. publicly observed aggregate shocks. Yet, private allocations display memory with respect to past aggregate shocks, when idosyncratic shocks are also i.i.d.. Under a mild restriction on the nature of optimal allocations the result extends to more persistent idiosyncratic shocks, for all but the limit at which idiosyncratic risk disappears, and the model collapses to a pure heterogeneity repeated Mirrlees economy identical to Werning [2007]. When preferences are iso-elastic we show that an allocation is memoryless only if it displays a strong form of separability with respect to aggregate shocks. Separability characterizes the pure heterogeneity limit as well as the general case with log preferences. With less than full persistence and risk aversion different from unity both memory and non-separability characterize optimal allocations. Exploiting the fact that non-separability is associated with state-varying labor wedges, we apply a business cycle accounting procedure (e.g. Chari et al. [2007]) to the aggregate data generated by the model. We show that, whenever risk aversion is great than one our model produces efficient counter-cyclical labor wedges.

Convex combinations of long memory estimates from different sampling rates

Convex combinations of long memory estimates using the same data observed at different sampling rates can decrease the standard deviation of the estimates, at the cost of inducing a slight bias. The convex combination of such estimates requires a preliminary correction for the bias observed at lower sampling rates, reported by Souza and Smith (2002). Through Monte Carlo simulations, we investigate the bias and the standard deviation of the combined estimates, as well as the root mean squared error (RMSE), which takes both into account. While comparing the results of standard methods and their combined versions, the latter achieve lower RMSE, for the two semi-parametric estimators under study (by about 30% on average for ARFIMA(0,d,0) series).

Forecasting electricity demand using generalized long memory

This paper studies the electricity hourly load demand in the area covered by a utility situated in the southeast of Brazil. We propose a stochastic model which employs generalized long memory (by means of Gegenbauer processes) to model the seasonal behavior of the load. The model is proposed for sectional data, that is, each hour’s load is studied separately as a single series. This approach avoids modeling the intricate intra-day pattern (load profile) displayed by the load, which varies throughout days of the week and seasons. The forecasting performance of the model is compared with a SARIMA benchmark using the years of 1999 and 2000 as the out-of-sample. The model clearly outperforms the benchmark. We conclude for general long memory in the series.

Temporal aggregation and bandwidth selection in estimating long memory

This paper reinterprets results of Ohanissian et al (2003) to show the asymptotic equivalence of temporally aggregating series and using less bandwidth in estimating long memory by Geweke and Porter-Hudak’s (1983) estimator, provided that the same number of periodogram ordinates is used in both cases. This equivalence is in the sense that their joint distribution is asymptotically normal with common mean and variance and unity correlation. Furthermore, I prove that the same applies to the estimator of Robinson (1995). Monte Carlo simulations show that this asymptotic equivalence is a good approximation in finite samples. Moreover, a real example with the daily US Dollar/French Franc exchange rate series is provided.

Working an identity, buying a life: the remains of Disney way of life among ICP alumni

O Disney International College Program (ICP) é um programa de estágio patrocinado pela Walt Disney Company, destinado a estudantes universitários estrangeiros. Uma vez aceitos no programa, estes jovens viajam para os Estados Unidos durante as férias de verão para trabalhar por três meses no Walt Disney World Resort na Flórida. O ICP tornou-se um programa popular dentre os estudantes universitários brasileiros. Todos os anos, aproximadamente trinta mil jovens candidatam-se para o programa. Contudo, apenas cerca de oitocentos conseguem ser aprovados. Durante o programa esses jovens desenvolvem uma “identidade Disney” que passará a fazer parte do self deles. O objetivo deste trabalho é explorar o papel ICP na vida dos seus participantes, assim como desvendar seus efeitos na construção do self destes jovens. O presente estudo também procurou avaliar como os participantes conseguem sustentar sua “identidade Disney”, mesmo após deixarem o programa. Para tanto, foi desenvolvido um estudo de caso qualitativo, no qual o caso analisado foi a identidade de participantes do ICP. Após uma breve análise da literatura sobre identidade, consideramos o self como a capacidade do individuo em manter viva uma narrativa particular. Assim, nossos dados foram coletados e analisados por meio do método de análise narrativo. Através deste estudo, descobrimos que a Walt Disney Company realiza um trabalho eficiente em convencer os participantes do ICP que a sua missão e seus valores são muito importantes. Com isso, estes jovens passam a louvar a marca Disney. Também foi observada a existência de uma comunidade de Disney Alumni (pessoas que participaram do ICP) unida por princípios, ideias e consumo.

Spectral properties of temporally aggregated long memory processes

This paper derives the spectral density function of aggregated long memory processes in light of the aliasing effect. The results are different from previous analyses in the literature and a small simulation exercise provides evidence in our favour. The main result point to that flow aggregates from long memory processes shall be less biased than stock ones, although both retain the degree of long memory. This result is illustrated with the daily US Dollar/ French Franc exchange rate series.

Brazilian Students and Working Capital: An Analysis of Their Decisions When Using Virtual Market Business Games

This study aims to demonstrate that data from business games can be an important resource for improving efficiency and effectiveness of learning. The proposal presented here was developed from preliminary studies of data from Virtual Market games that pointed the possibility of identifying gaps in learning by analyzing the decisions of students. This proposal helps students to refine their learning processes and equips tutors with strategies for teaching and student assessment. The proposal also complements the group discussion and/or debriefing, which are widely used to enhance learning mediated by games. However, from a management perspective the model has the potential to be erroneous and miss opportunities, which cannot be detected because of the dependence on the characteristics of the individual, such as ability to communicate and work together. To illustrate the proposed technique, data sets from two business games were analyzed with the focus on managing working capital and it was found that students had difficulties managing this task. Similar trends were observed in all categories of students in the study-undergraduate, postgraduate and specialization. This discovery led us to the analysis of data for decisions made in the performance of the games, and it was determined that indicators could be developed that were capable of indentifying inconsistencies in the decisions. It was decided to apply some basic concepts of the finance management, such as management of the operational and non-operational expenditures, as well as production management concepts, such as the use of the production capacity. By analyzing the data from the Virtual Market games using the indicator concept, it was possible to detect the lack of domain knowledge of the students. Therefore, these indicators can be used to analyze the decisions of the players and guide them during the game, increasing their effectiveness and efficiency. As these indicators were developed from specific content, they can also be used to develop teaching materials to support learning. Viewed in this light, the proposal adds new possibilities for using business games in learning. In addition to the intrinsic learning that is achieved through playing the games, they also assist in driving the learning process. This study considers the applications and the methodology used.

Effects of isoflavone on the learning and memory of women in menopause: a double-blind placebo-controlled study

Hormone decline is common to all women during aging and, associated with other factors, leads to cognitive impairment. Its replacement enhances cognitive performance, but not all women present a clinical and family or personal history that justifies its use, mainly women with a history of cancer. The aim of this study was to determine whether a daily oral dose of 80 mg of isoflavone extract for 4 months can produce benefits in women with low hormone levels, contributing to improvement in cognitive aspects. The sample comprised 50- to 65-year-old women whose menstruation had ceased at least 1 year before and who had not undergone hormone replacement. The volunteers were allocated to two groups of 19 individuals each, i.e., isoflavone and placebo. There was a weak correlation between menopause duration and low performance in the capacity to manipulate information (central executive). We observed an increase in the capacity to integrate information in the group treated with isoflavone, but no improvement in the capacity to form new memories. We did not observe differences between groups in terms of signs and symptoms suggestive of depression according to the Geriatric Depression Scale. Our results point to a possible beneficial effect of isoflavone on some abilities of the central executive. These effects could also contribute to minimizing the impact of memory impairment. Further research based on controlled clinical trials is necessary to reach consistent conclusions.

The effectiveness of technical assistance, socio-economic development and the absorptive capacity of competition authorities

Includes bibliography

Capacity-stretching technical change: some empirical and theoretical aspects

Includes bibliography

In memory of Pedro Vuskovic

For those of us who shared many years of friendship and professional collaboration with Pedro Vuskovic, the news of his recent death in Mexico has been the cause of great sorrow, not only because of the circumstances of his death, following a cruel disease that gradually sapped his physical -but not intellectual- strength, but also because it signifies the loss of a great Latin American, of a teacher who helped shape so many generations of young people in our region, and of a companion during so many days of intellectual strivings and political struggle. Pedro joined the Commission in 1950, shortly after its birth as an institution. For nearly 20 years he served it brilliantly in a professional capacity, with his career in ECLAC culminating in the position of Director of the Development Division. He played a crucial role in structuring and disseminating the thinking of ECLAC during a time when the very air teemed with the ideas and concerns of a pleiad of gifted economists and social scientists. These were the post-war years, the 1950s and 1960s, when we all had to "construct" Latin America. Pedro Vuskovic laid many of the bricks in that collective theoretical and political edifice which has been of such importance to the countries of the region. Concurrently, he served as a professor in ECLAC and ILPES training programmes while at the same time teaching classes at the schools of economics and sociology at the University of Chile and the School of Economics at the University of Concepción. When he left ECLAC, Pedro plunged wholeheartedly into the academic world, serving as the Director of the Institute of Economics of the University of Chile, and then went on to claim a position at the forefront of Chilean politics. In November 1970 he was named Minister of Economic Affairs by President Salvador Allende and in June 1972, took over the cabinet-level position of Executive Vice President of the Production Development Corporation (CORFO);, where he served until September 1973. When political events carried him into exile in Mexico, which generously welcomed him as it did so many other Latin Americans who faced similar problems, Pedro carried on his valuable academic work, first at the Economic Research and Teaching Centre (CIDE);, where he directed the Institute of Economic Studies of Latin America, and later at the Centre for Interdisciplinary Research in the Humanities at the National University of Mexico (UNAM);, where he was named to the position of Coordinator for a programme on poverty and development options in various countries of Latin America. Although he will be remembered for his important political role, Pedro's work as a scholar and as an economist deserve special mention. He was a brilliant speaker, at the same time both methodical and incisive, who mastered his subjects with great wisdom and intellectual breadth, and he derived a special joy from being with young people, from providing them with intellectual stimulation and receiving it from them in turn. The many generations of Latin American students who were fortunate enough to have him as a teacher can attest to this. Pedro Vuskovic brought to his work as a researcher and teacher a deep sense of political and social responsibility which moved him to espouse the cause of Latin America 's poor and dispossessed, whose position he had come to understand very early on in his life through the many studies he carried out in this area while at ECLAC. He was tenacious in upholding his ideas and principles, he lived in accordance with them, and he championed them in all the forums open to him, in both the political and academic worlds, to the end of his days. His friends and colleagues also remember his geniality, his sense of humour and great personal warmth -traits which were coupled with an unshakable loyalty to his principles and values. Our farewell is deeply felt; Pedro Vuskovic has left us a legacy of memories and lessons that we will always hold close to our hearts. On behalf of his friends and colleagues, Jacobo Schatan, former Director of the Joint ECLAC/FAO, Agriculture Division

Information and communication technology for disaster risk management in the Caribbean: subregional solutions to the challenge of limited human resource capacity

This document was adapted from a paper originally presented to the 8th Annual Caribbean Conference of Comprehensive Disaster Management, held in Montego Bay, Jamaica in December, 2013. It summarizes several activities that ECLAC has undertaken to assess the current state of information and communications technology (ICT) in the field of disaster risk management (DRM) as practiced in the Caribbean. These activities included an in-depth study that encompassed a survey of disaster management organizations in the region, an Expert Group Meeting attended by the heads of several national disaster offices, and a training workshop for professionals working in DRM in the Caribbean. One of the notable conclusions of ECLAC’s investigation on this topic is that the lack of human capacity is the single largest constraint that is faced in the implementation of ICT projects for DRM in the Caribbean. In considering strategies to address the challenge of limited human capacity at a regional level, two separate issues are recognized – the need to increase the ICT capabilities of disaster management professionals, and the need to make ICT specialists available to disaster management organizations to advise and assist in the implementation of technology-focused projects. To that end, two models are proposed to engage with this issue at a regional level. The first entails the establishment of a network of ICT trainers in the Caribbean to help DRM staff develop a strategic understanding of how technology can be used to further their organizational goals. The second is the development of “Centres of Excellence” for ICT in the Caribbean, which would enable the deployment of specialized ICT expertise to national disaster management offices on a project-by-project basis.

Construção, aplicação e análise de proposta de formação continuada de professores para o ensino de história a alunos com deficiência intelectual

Pós-graduação em Educação - FFC

A load-balancing spare capacity reallocation approach in service-rich SONET metro mesh networks

The next-generation SONET metro network is evolving into a service-rich infrastructure. At the edge of such a network, multi-service provisioning platforms (MSPPs) provide efficient data mapping enabled by Generic Framing Procedure (GFP) and Virtual Concatenation (VC). The core of the network tends to be a meshed architecture equipped with Multi-Service Switches (MSSs). In the context of these emerging technologies, we propose a load-balancing spare capacity reallocation approach to improve network utilization in the next-generation SONET metro networks. Using our approach, carriers can postpone network upgrades, resulting in increased revenue with reduced capital expenditures (CAPEX). For the first time, we consider the spare capacity reallocation problem from a capacity upgrade and network planning perspective. Our approach can operate in the context of shared-path protection (with backup multiplexing) because it reallocates spare capacity without disrupting working services. Unlike previous spare capacity reallocation approaches which aim at minimizing total spare capacity, our load-balancing approach minimizes the network load vector (NLV), which is a novel metric that reflects the network load distribution. Because NLV takes into consideration both uniform and non-uniform link capacity distribution, our approach can benefit both uniform and non-uniform networks. We develop a greedy loadbalancing spare capacity reallocation (GLB-SCR) heuristic algorithm to implement this approach. Our experimental results show that GLB-SCR outperforms a previously proposed algorithm (SSR) in terms of established connection capacity and total network capacity in both uniform and non-uniform networks.

Bitext alignment: building and evaluating a bilingual corpus and translation memory of academic course descriptions

Following the internationalization of contemporary higher education, academic institutions based in non-English speaking countries are increasingly urged to produce contents in English to address international prospective students and personnel, as well as to increase their attractiveness. The demand for English translations in the institutional academic domain is consequently increasing at a rate exceeding the capacity of the translation profession. Resources for assisting non-native authors and translators in the production of appropriate texts in L2 are therefore required in order to help academic institutions and professionals streamline their translation workload. Some of these resources include: (i) parallel corpora to train machine translation systems and multilingual authoring tools; and (ii) translation memories for computer-aided tools. The purpose of this study is to create and evaluate reference resources like the ones mentioned in (i) and (ii) through the automatic sentence alignment of a large set of Italian and English as a Lingua Franca (ELF) institutional academic texts given as equivalent but not necessarily parallel (i.e. translated). In this framework, a set of aligning algorithms and alignment tools is examined in order to identify the most profitable one(s) in terms of accuracy and time- and cost-effectiveness. In order to determine the text pairs to align, a sample is selected according to document length similarity (characters) and subsequently evaluated in terms of extent of noisiness/parallelism, alignment accuracy and content leverageability. The results of these analyses serve as the basis for the creation of an aligned bilingual corpus of academic course descriptions, which is eventually used to create a translation memory in TMX format.