The impact of climate change on the tourism sector in the Caribbean

The main aim of this study is to estimate the economic impact of climate change on nine countries in the Caribbean basin: Aruba, Barbados, Dominican Republic, Guyana, Jamaica, Montserrat, Netherlands Antilles, Saint Lucia and Trinidad and Tobago. A typical tourism demand function, with tourist arrivals as the dependent variable, is used in the analysis. To establish the baseline, the period under analysis is 1989-2007 and the independent variables are destination country GDP per capita and consumer price index, source country GDP, oil prices to proxy transportation costs between source and destination countries. At this preliminary stage the climate variables are used separately to augment the tourism demand function to establish a relationship, if any, among the variables. Various econometric models (single OLS models for each country, pooled regression, GMM estimation and random effects panel models) were considered in an attempt to find the best way to model the data. The best fit for the data (1989-2007) is the random effects panel data model augmented by both climate variables, i.e. temperature and precipitation. Projections of all variables in the model for the 2008-2100 period were done using forecasting techniques. Projections for the climate variables were undertaken by INSMET. The cost of climate change to the tourism sector was estimated under three scenarios: A2, B2 and BAU (the mid-point of the A2 and B2 scenarios). The estimated costs to tourism for the Caribbean subregion under the three scenarios are all very high and ranges from US$43.9 billion under the B2 scenario to US$46.3 billion under the BAU scenario.

Study on the vulnerability and resilience of Caribbean Small Island Developing States (SIDS)

Caribbean Small Island Developing States are considered to be particularly vulnerable to external shocks that stem from changes in climate and the increase in frequency and magnitude of natural disasters. Quantification of the extent of vulnerability of these islands may be measured by the use of several indices including the Economic Vulnerability Index (EcVI), the Disaster Deficit Index (DDI), the Environmental Vulnerability Index (EVI) and the Social Vulnerability Index (SVI). The capacity to build resilience may be measured by the Economic Resilience Index (ERI). Of importance in the measurement of vulnerability and resilience is the impact on women and children. In order to reduce vulnerability and promote resilience, Caribbean SIDS are urged to develop adaptation strategies. Such strategies include the conduct of indepth studies on natural environmental impacts specifically in terms of biophysical and socio economic impacts. It is also necessary to review best practices in terms of preparedness, resilience building and climate change adaptation in other countries such as Cuba. Addressing vulnerability and building resilience requires appropriate information and data and priority should be given to addressing data gaps. It would also be expedient to classify vulnerability and resilience as regional public goods wherein one country’s benefit does not compromise another country’s ability to benefit. Finally, it is important to acknowledge that vulnerability is, in part, is a function of gender so that indicators need to be disaggregated to reflect the country-specific gendered socioeconomic situation.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the Agriculture, Health and Tourism sectors in Jamaica

This report analyses the agriculture, health and tourism sectors in Jamaica to assess the potential economic impacts of climate change on the sectors. The fundamental aim of this report is to assist with the development of strategies to deal with the potential impact of climate change on Jamaica. It also has the potential to provide essential input for identifying and preparing policies and strategies to help move the Region closer to solving problems associated with climate change and attaining individual and regional sustainable development goals. Some of the key anticipated manifestations of climate change for the Caribbean include elevated air and sea-surface temperatures, sea-level rise, possible changes in extreme events and a reduction in freshwater resources. The economic impact of climate change on the three sectors was estimated for the A2 and B2 IPCC scenarios until 2050. An evaluation of various adaptation strategies was also undertaken for each sector using standard evaluation techniques. The outcomes from investigating the agriculture sector indicate that for the sugar-cane subsector the harvests under both the A2 and B2 scenarios decrease at first and then increase as the mid-century mark is approached. With respect to the yam subsector the results indicate that the yield of yam will increase from 17.4 to 23.1 tonnes per hectare (33%) under the A2 scenario, and 18.4 to 23.9 (30%) tonnes per hectare under the B2 scenario over the period 2011 to 2050. Similar to the forecasts for yam, the results for escallion suggest that yields will continue to increase to mid-century. Adaptation in the sugar cane sub-sector could involve replanting and irrigation that appear to generate net benefits at the three selected discount rates for the A2 scenario, but only at a discount rate of 1% for the B2 scenario. For yam and escallion, investment in irrigation will earn significant net benefits for both the A2 and B2 scenarios at the three selected rates of discount. It is recommended that if adaptation strategies are part of a package of strategies for improving efficiency and hence enhancing competitiveness, then the yields of each crop can be raised sufficiently to warrant investment in adaptation to climate change. The analysis of the health sector demonstrates the potential for climate change to add a substantial burden to the future health systems in Jamaica, something that that will only compound the country’s vulnerability to other anticipated impacts of climate change. The results clearly show that the incidence of dengue fever will increase if climate change continues unabated, with more cases projected for the A2 scenario than the B2. The models predicted a decrease in the incidence of gastroenteritis and leptospirosis with climate change, indicating that Jamaica will benefit from climate change with a reduction in the number of cases of gastroenteritis and leptospirosis. Due to the long time horizon anticipated for climate change, Jamaica should start implementing adaptation strategies focused on the health sector by promoting an enabling environment, strengthening communities, strengthening the monitoring, surveillance and response systems and integrating adaptation into development plans and actions. Small-island developing states like Jamaica must be proactive in implementing adaptation strategies, which will reduce the risk of climate change. On the global stage the country must continue to agitate for the implementation of the mitigation strategies for developed countries as outlined in the Kyoto protocol. The results regarding the tourism sector suggest that the sector is likely to incur losses due to climate change, the most significant of which is under the A2 scenario. Climatic features, such as temperature and precipitation, will affect the demand for tourism in Jamaica. By 2050 the industry is expected to lose US$ 132.2 million and 106.1 million under the A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively. In addition to changes in the climatic suitability for tourism, climate change is also likely to have important supply-side effects from extreme events and acidification of the ocean. The expected loss from extreme events is projected to be approximately US$ 5.48 billion (A2) and US$ 4.71 billion (B2). Even more devastating is the effect of ocean acidification on the tourism sector. The analysis shows that US$ 7.95 billion (A2) and US$ 7.04 billion is expected to be lost by mid-century. The benefit-cost analysis indicates that most of the adaptation strategies are expected to produce negative net benefits, and it is highly likely that the cost burden would have to be carried by the state. The options that generated positive ratios were: redesigning and retrofitting all relevant tourism facilities, restoring corals and educating the public and developing rescue and evacuation plans. Given the relative importance of tourism to the macroeconomy one possible option is to seek assistance from multilateral funding agencies. It is recommended that the government first undertake a detailed analysis of the vulnerability of each sector and, in particular tourism, to climate change. Further, more realistic socio-economic scenarios should be developed so as to inform future benefit-cost analysis.

Preliminary report on the implementation of the ECLAC work programme subregional activities for the Caribbean. 2008-2009 biennium (Covering the period 1 Janurary 2008- 31 August 2009)

Eighteen months into the implementation of the 2008-2009 biennial strategic work programme, the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean continues to focus on strengthening the delivery of activities through regular internal meetings with programme and research staff and consultations with member countries and other partner institutions. The scaling up of efforts advocating for more evidence-based development policy-making is being advanced utilizing the resources provided through the implementation of an additional seven extrabudgetary-funded projects. This effort is being undertaken in collaboration and in consultation with our major international and regional development partners – United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), United Nations Development Fund for Women (UNIFEM), United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF), Caribbean Community (CARICOM), Caribbean Development Bank (CDB), Organisation of Eastern Caribbean States (OECS), Association of Caribbean States (ACS), Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), World Bank, Department for International Development (DFID), Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre (CCCCC). and others. In

Report of the expert group meeting on the CARIFORUM-EU Economic Pertnership Agreement

On 15 October 2008, the European Union (EU) and the CARIFORUM Group of Countries – the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) and the Dominican Republic – assembled in Barbados to commemorate the beginning of a new chapter in their economic relationship by signing the CARIFORUM-EU Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) after four and a half years of negotiation. In signing the Agreement, a joint declaration was also issued calling for a comprehensive, five-yearly review of the Agreement in order to determine its impact, including the costs and consequences of its implementation. During negotiations between the parties to the Agreement, the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean undertook several studies directed at examining the implications of the EPA for the region as well as informing the process for the preparation of an implementation plan for CARIFORUM. The possible gender implications were also considered in collaboration with the United Nations Development Fund for Women (UNIFEM).

Caribbean synthesis review and appraisal report on the implementation of the Beijing Declaration and Platform for Action

The Caribbean sub-regional synthesis report, covering 12 countries, assesses progress towards the gender equality goals articulated in the 1995 World Conference on Women, which produced the Beijing Platform for Action (BPfA). The process leading to the preparation of the report has involved a series of national, regional and global consultations that will culminate in the Beijing + 20 Review. The process has also led to the formulation of the Caribbean Joint Statement on Gender Equality and the Post-2015, as well as the SIDS Agenda, both of which express Caribbean perspectives and expectations regarding gender equality.

Influence of natural settlement cues on the metamorphosis of fiddler crab megalopae, Uca vocator (Decapoda: Ocypodidae)

Megalopas de muitas espécies de caranguejos decápodes aceleram seu período de desenvolvimento até a metamorfose (TOM) quando são expostas a estímulos naturais físicos e/ou químicos característicos do habitat parental. No presente estudo, a influência de estímulos naturais sobre as taxas de muda e sobre o PDM foi investigada nas megalopas do caranguejo violinistac. Os efeitos da (i) lama de diferentes habitats (incluindo habitats de um manguezal bem preservado e de um degradado e poluído) e (ii) 'odores' dos adultos conspecíficos (água do mar acondicionada com caranguejos) sobre a indução da metamorfose foram comparados com (iii) água do mar pura e filtrada (controle). 95 a 100% das megalopas realizaram a metamorfose com sucesso para o primeiro estágio de caranguejo juvenil em todos os tratamentos, incluindo o controle. No entanto, o PDM diferiu significativamente entre os tratamentos. Os estímulos encurtaram significativamente o desenvolvimento, enquanto que a muda foi retardada na ausência deles. O fato de que as megalopas responderam aos estímulos indutores da metamorfose oriundos de ambos os habitats bentônicos dos adultos e de habitats onde eles são ausentes, demonstra que o assentamento nesta espécie pode ocorrer em uma grande variedade de habitats dentro do ecossistema de manguezal, incluindo áreas impactadas.

U-Pb SHRIMP and 40Ar/39Ar constraints on the timing of mineralization in the Paleoproterozoic Caxias orogenic gold deposit, São Luís cratonic fragment, Brazil

Caxias é um depósito de ouro orogênico do fragmento cratônico São Luís, que é correlacionável aos terrenos Riacianos do Cráton Oeste-Africano. O depósito se formou após o metamorfismo regional (estimado em 2100 ± 15 Ma) e está hospedado em zona de cisalhamento que secciona xistos do Grupo Aurizona (2240 ± 5 Ma) e o Microtonalito Caxias. O microtonalito foi aqui datado em 2009 ± 11 Ma, e representa um estágio magmático tardio na evolução do fragmento cratônico São Luís. Cristais de zircão com idades de 2139 ± 10 Ma foram herdados da fonte magmática ou são produto de contaminação durante a intrusão. A composição dos isótopos de chumbo sugere que granitoides de arco de ilhas de ca. 2160 Ma são a fonte provável para o Pb incorporado na pirita relacionada com o minério. Sericita hidrotermal mostra idade ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar de 1990 ± 30 Ma, que, combinada com a idade de posicionamento do microtonalito hospedeiro, limita o evento mineralizador ao intervalo 2020-1960 Ma.

Maturity, Pulp Removal and Storage Effects on the Germination of Livistona rotundifolia Seeds

The Livistona rotundifolia species is native to Oceania, and has a high potential for landscaping use and as a pot plant. This work aimed to study the effects of the maturation stage, pulp removal and storage on the germination of L. rotundifolia seeds. The experimental design was entirely randomized in a factorial arrangement 5x2x2 (five storage periods: 15, 30, 45, 60 and 75 days; two maturation stages: green and ripe; and the presence or absence of the pulp - exocarp and mesocarp) with four replications of 25 seeds each. After sorting out the fruits by the maturity stage and removing the pulp out of half of the fruits from each plot, the seeds were placed in closed bottles, which were sealed and stored in a cold chamber at 10 degrees C. The seeds were removed from the cold chamber and left to germinate in plastic boxes (gerbox type) with sphagnum. The boxes were kept at 25-35 degrees C and photoperiod of 12 hours. The germination rate was determined when seed germination was steady. The highest germination rate was found when green fruits had their pulp removed. The germination rate gradually decreased with the increase of the storage period regardless the maturation stage and the presence or absence of the pulp.

WHEAT NITROGEN FERTILIZATION UNDER NO TILL ON THE LOW ALTITUDE BRAZILIAN CERRADO

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Epigenetic and expression analysis of TRAIL-R2 and BCL2: on the TRAIL to knowledge of apoptosis in ovarian tumors

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Effects of potassium application and soil moisture on the growth of Corymbia citriodora plants

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Effects of strength and balance training on the mobility, fear of falling and grip strength of elderly female fallers

The aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of virtual reality and strength training on the balance, fear of falling and handgrip strength of older women with a history of falls. The fear of falling, mobility and grip strength were evaluated in 11 elderly fallers (72.4 ± 5.2 years). The faller group was submitted to 12 weeks of virtual reality and muscle strength training. The results showed improvement in mobility (p = 0.0004) and in the fear of falling (p = 0.002). No significant difference was observed for hand grip strength. It can be concluded that virtual reality and muscle strength interventions are beneficial for mobility and fear of falling in older women with a history of falls.

Life-history traits of the red brocade hermit crab Dardanus insignis on the subtropical Brazilian coast

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

ONTOGENETIC DEVELOPMENT OF SENSORY STRUCTURES ON THE ANTENNULES AND ANTENNAE OF THE GIANT RIVER PRAWN MACROBRACHIUM ROSENBERGII (DE MAN)

In this study the occurrence of sensory structures on the antennules and antennae of the giant river prawn Macrobrachium rosenbergii (De Man) during postembryonic ontogenetic development were examined. Larvae and postlarvae were obtained from hatchery recirculating tanks, juveniles from indoor nursery tanks, and adults from earthen grow-out ponds. The animals were fixed with Karnovsky fixative and dissected. Antennules and antennae were removed, metal-coated, and photodocumented using a scanning electron microscope. The antennules have aesthetascs and simple plumose and pappose setae; the antennae have simple, plumose and pappose setae. These structures increase in density, covered surface, and distribution during ontogeny and should be related to chemoreception and mechanoreception. The antennular statocyst that appears during larval stage VII of the giant river prawn has an array of sensory structures that enable the perception of chemical and tactile stimuli beginning with its early life stages. The ontogenetic changes observed allow an inference that initial-stage larvae, advance-stage larvae, juveniles, and adults have different capacities to exploit the environment.