Dengue fever and el nino-southern oscillation in Queensland, Australia : a time series predictive model

Background It remains unclear over whether it is possible to develop an epidemic forecasting model for transmission of dengue fever in Queensland, Australia. Objectives To examine the potential impact of El Niño/Southern Oscillation on the transmission of dengue fever in Queensland, Australia and explore the possibility of developing a forecast model of dengue fever. Methods Data on the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), an indicator of El Niño/Southern Oscillation activity, were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Numbers of dengue fever cases notified and the numbers of postcode areas with dengue fever cases between January 1993 and December 2005 were obtained from the Queensland Health and relevant population data were obtained from the Australia Bureau of Statistics. A multivariate Seasonal Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average model was developed and validated by dividing the data file into two datasets: the data from January 1993 to December 2003 were used to construct a model and those from January 2004 to December 2005 were used to validate it. Results A decrease in the average SOI (ie, warmer conditions) during the preceding 3–12 months was significantly associated with an increase in the monthly numbers of postcode areas with dengue fever cases (β=−0.038; p = 0.019). Predicted values from the Seasonal Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average model were consistent with the observed values in the validation dataset (root-mean-square percentage error: 1.93%). Conclusions Climate variability is directly and/or indirectly associated with dengue transmission and the development of an SOI-based epidemic forecasting system is possible for dengue fever in Queensland, Australia.

A model for engaging and evaluating innovative cross-sectoral education reform : case studies from Queensland, Australia

This paper will explore how a general education can contribute successfully to vocational outcomes using both Participatory Action Research (PAR) and Program Theory methodology. The paper will focus on the development aspects of ‘marrying’ vocational and general education including engagement processes, student, teacher, institute and employer preparation and the pathway possibilities that emerge. Successful cases presented include the: Healthy Futures program (pathways into the Health and Allied industries); Accounting Pathways program (simultaneously studying a general Accounting subject and a Certificate III vocational qualification); and Sustainable Sciences initiative (development of a vocational qualification that focuses on the emerging renewable energy industry and is linked to school science programs). The case studies have been selected because they are unique in character and application and can be used as a basis for future program development in other settings or curriculum areas.

Bayesian hybrid algorithms and models : implementation and associated issues

This thesis addresses computational challenges arising from Bayesian analysis of complex real-world problems. Many of the models and algorithms designed for such analysis are ‘hybrid’ in nature, in that they are a composition of components for which their individual properties may be easily described but the performance of the model or algorithm as a whole is less well understood. The aim of this research project is to after a better understanding of the performance of hybrid models and algorithms. The goal of this thesis is to analyse the computational aspects of hybrid models and hybrid algorithms in the Bayesian context. The first objective of the research focuses on computational aspects of hybrid models, notably a continuous finite mixture of t-distributions. In the mixture model, an inference of interest is the number of components, as this may relate to both the quality of model fit to data and the computational workload. The analysis of t-mixtures using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is described and the model is compared to the Normal case based on the goodness of fit. Through simulation studies, it is demonstrated that the t-mixture model can be more flexible and more parsimonious in terms of number of components, particularly for skewed and heavytailed data. The study also reveals important computational issues associated with the use of t-mixtures, which have not been adequately considered in the literature. The second objective of the research focuses on computational aspects of hybrid algorithms for Bayesian analysis. Two approaches will be considered: a formal comparison of the performance of a range of hybrid algorithms and a theoretical investigation of the performance of one of these algorithms in high dimensions. For the first approach, the delayed rejection algorithm, the pinball sampler, the Metropolis adjusted Langevin algorithm, and the hybrid version of the population Monte Carlo (PMC) algorithm are selected as a set of examples of hybrid algorithms. Statistical literature shows how statistical efficiency is often the only criteria for an efficient algorithm. In this thesis the algorithms are also considered and compared from a more practical perspective. This extends to the study of how individual algorithms contribute to the overall efficiency of hybrid algorithms, and highlights weaknesses that may be introduced by the combination process of these components in a single algorithm. The second approach to considering computational aspects of hybrid algorithms involves an investigation of the performance of the PMC in high dimensions. It is well known that as a model becomes more complex, computation may become increasingly difficult in real time. In particular the importance sampling based algorithms, including the PMC, are known to be unstable in high dimensions. This thesis examines the PMC algorithm in a simplified setting, a single step of the general sampling, and explores a fundamental problem that occurs in applying importance sampling to a high-dimensional problem. The precision of the computed estimate from the simplified setting is measured by the asymptotic variance of the estimate under conditions on the importance function. Additionally, the exponential growth of the asymptotic variance with the dimension is demonstrated and we illustrates that the optimal covariance matrix for the importance function can be estimated in a special case.

Towards a new model of successful faking

Existing literature has failed to find robust relationships between individual differences and the ability to fake psychological tests, possibly due to limitations in how successful faking is operationalised. In order to fake, individuals must alter their original profile to create a particular impression. Currently, successful faking is operationalised through statistical definitions, informant ratings, known groups comparisons, the use of archival and baseline data, and breaches of validity indexes. However, there are many methodological limitations to these approaches. This research proposed a three component model of successful faking to address this, where an original response is manipulated into a strategic response, which must match a criteria target. Further, by operationalising successful faking in this manner, this research takes into account the fact that individuals may have been successful in reaching their implicitly created profile, but that this may not have matched the criteria they were instructed to fake.Participants (N=48, 22 students and 26 non-students) completed the BDI-II honestly. Participants then faked the BDI-II as if they had no, mild, moderate and severe depression, as well as completing a checklist revealing which symptoms they thought indicated each level of depression. Findings were consistent with a three component model of successful faking, where individuals effectively changed their profile to what they believed was required, however this profile differed from the criteria defined by the psychometric norms of the test.One of the foremost issues for research in this area is the inconsistent manner in which successful faking is operationalised. This research allowed successful faking to be operationalised in an objective, quantifiable manner. Using this model as a template may allow researchers better understanding of the processes involved in faking, including the role of strategies and abilities in determining the outcome of test dissimulation.

Testing a tri-partite contingent model of engineering cultures : a pilot study

For some time there has been a growing awareness of organizational culture and its impact on the functioning of engineering and maintenance departments. Those wishing to implement contemporary maintenance regimes (e.g. condition based maintenance) are often encouraged to develop “appropriate cultures” to support a new method’s introduction. Unfortunately these same publications often fail to specifically articulate the cultural values required to support those efforts. In the broader literature, only a limited number of case examples document the cultural values held by engineering asset intensive firms and how they contribute to their success (or failure). Consequently a gap exists in our knowledge of what engineering cultures currently might look like, or what might constitute a best practice engineering asset culture. The findings of a pilot study investigating the perceived ideal characteristics of engineering asset cultures are reported. Engineering managers, consultants and academics (n=47), were surveyed as to what they saw were essential attributes of both engineering cultures and engineering asset personnel. Valued cultural elements included those orientated around continuous improvement, safety and quality. Valued individual attributes included openness to change, interpersonal skills and conscientiousness. The paper concludes with a discussion regarding the development of a best practice cultural framework for practitioners and engineering managers.

A modified cementing technique using BoneSource to augment fixation of the acetabulum in a sheep model

Background and purpose Our aim was to prove in an animal model that the use of HA paste at the cement-bone interface in the acetabulum would improve fixation. We examined, in sheep, the effect of interposing a layer of hydroxyapatite cement around the periphery of a polyethylene socket prior to fixing it using polymethylemethacrylate (PMMA). Methods We made a randomized study involving 22 sheep to test whether the application of BoneSource hydroxyapatite material to the surface of the ovine acetabulum prior to cementing a polyethylene cup at hip arthroplasty improved the fixation and the nature of the interface. We studied the gross radiographical appearance of the implant-bone interface and the histological appearance at the interface. Results There were more radiolucencies evident in the control group. Histologically, only sheep randomized into the BoneSource group exhibited a fully osseointegrated interface. Use of the hydroxyapatite material did not confer any detrimental effects. In some cases the material appeared to have been fully resorbed. When the material was evident on histological section, it was incorporated into an osseointegrated interface. There was no giant cell reaction present in any case. There was no evidence of migration of BoneSource to the articulation. Interpretation The application of HA material prior to cementation of a socket produced an improved interface. The technique may be useful in man with to extend the longevity of the cemented implant by protecting the socket interface from the effect of hydrodynamic fluid flow and particulate debris.

How Novices Model Business Processes

In this paper, we examine the design of business process diagrams in contexts where novice analysts only have basic design tools such as paper and pencils available, and little to no understanding of formalized modeling approaches. Based on a quasi-experimental study with 89 BPM students, we identify five distinct process design archetypes ranging from textual to hybrid, and graphical representation forms. We also examine the quality of the designs and identify which representation formats enable an analyst to articulate business rules, states, events, activities, temporal and geospatial information in a process model. We found that the quality of the process designs decreases with the increased use of graphics and that hybrid designs featuring appropriate text labels and abstract graphical forms are well-suited to describe business processes. Our research has implications for practical process design work in industry as well as for academic curricula on process design.

An application of Keller’s Brand Equity Model in a B2B context

Powerful brands create meaningful images in the minds of customers (Keller, 1993). A strong brand image and reputation enhances differentiation and has a positive influence on buying behaviour (Gordon et al., 1993; McEnally and de Chernatony, 1999). While the power of branding is widely acknowledged in consumer markets, the nature and importance of branding in industrial markets remains under-researched. Many business-to-business (B2B) strategists have claimed brand-building belongs in the consumer realm. They argue that industrial products do not need branding as it is confusing and adds little value to functional products (Collins, 1977; Lorge, 1998; Saunders and Watt, 1979). Others argue that branding and the concept of brand equity however are increasingly important in industrial markets, because it has been shown that what a brand means to a buyer can be a determining factor in deciding between industrial purchase alternatives (Aaker, 1991). In this context, it is critical for suppliers to initiate and sustain relationships due to the small number of potential customers (Ambler, 1995; Webster and Keller, 2004). To date however, there is no model available to assist B2B marketers in identifying and measuring brand equity. In this paper, we take a step in that direction by operationalising and empirically testing a prominent brand equity model in a B2B context. This makes not only a theoretical contribution by advancing branding research, but also addresses a managerial need for information that will assist in the assessment of industrial branding efforts.

The carrying capacity imperative : assessing regional carrying capacity methodologies for sustainable land-use planning

The global impact of an ever-increasing population-base combined with dangerously depleted natural resources highlights the urgent need for changes in human lifestyles and land-use patterns. To achieve more equitable and sustainable land use, it is imperative that populations live within the carrying capacity of their natural assets in a manner more accountable to and ethically responsible for the land which sustains them. Our society’s very survival may well depend on worldwide acceptance of the carrying capacity imperative as a principle of personal, political, economic, educational and planning responsibility. This theoretically-focused research identifies, examines and compares a range of methodological approaches to carrying capacity assessment and considers their relevance to future spatial planning. It also addresses existing gaps in current methodologies and suggests avenues for improvement. A set of eleven key criteria are employed to compare various existing carrying capacity assessment models. These criteria include whole-systems analysis, dynamic responses, levels of impact and risk, systemic constraints, applicability to future planning and the consideration of regional and local boundary delineation. This research finds that while some existing methodologies offer significant insights into the assessment of population carrying capacities, a comprehensive model is yet to be developed. However, it is suggested that by combining successful components from various authors, and collecting a range of interconnected data, a practical and workable systems-based model may be achievable in the future.

An integrated information management model for ecologically sustainable development

Ecologically sustainable development has become a major feature of legal systems at the international, national and local levels throughout the world. In Australia, governments have responded to environmental crises by enacting legislation imposing obligations and restrictions over privately-owned land. Whilst these obligations and restrictions may well be necessary to achieve sustainability, the approach to management of information concerning these instruments is problematic. For example, management of information concerning obligations and restrictions in Queensland is fragmented, with some instruments registered or recorded on the land title register, some on external registers, and some information only available in the legislation itself. This approach is used in most Australian jurisdictions. This fragmented approach has led to two separate but interconnected problems. First, the Torrens system is no longer meeting its goal of providing a complete and accurate picture of title. Second, this uncoordinated approach to the management of land titles, and obligations and restrictions on land use, has created a barrier to sustainable management of natural resources. This is because compliance with environmental laws is impaired in the absence of easily accessible and accurate information. These problems demonstrate a clear need for reform in this area. To determine how information concerning these obligations and restrictions may be most effectively managed, this thesis will apply a comparative methodology and consider three case studies, which each utilise different models for management of this information. These jurisdictions will be assessed according to a set of guidelines for comparison to identify which features of their systems provide for effective management of information concerning obligations and restrictions on title and use. Based on this comparison, this thesis will devise a series of recommendations for an effective system for the management of information concerning obligations and restrictions on land title and use, taking into account any potential legal issues and barriers to implementation. This series of recommendations for reform will be supplemented by suggested draft legislative provisions.

Towards developing an integrated model of information behaviour

This paper presents the results from a study of information behaviors in the context of people's everyday lives undertaken in order to develop an integrated model of information behavior (IB). 34 participants from across 6 countries maintained a daily information journal or diary – mainly through a secure web log – for two weeks, to an aggregate of 468 participant days over five months. The text-rich diary data was analyzed using a multi-method qualitative-quantitative analysis in the following order: Grounded Theory analysis with manual coding, automated concept analysis using thesaurus-based visualization, and finally a statistical analysis of the coding data. The findings indicate that people engage in several information behaviors simultaneously throughout their everyday lives (including home and work life) and that sense-making is entangled in all aspects of them. Participants engaged in many of the information behaviors in a parallel, distributed, and concurrent fashion: many information behaviors for one information problem, one information behavior across many information problems, and many information behaviors concurrently across many information problems. Findings indicate also that information avoidance – both active and passive avoidance – is a common phenomenon and that information organizing behaviors or the lack thereof caused the most problems for participants. An integrated model of information behaviors is presented based on the findings.

The Development of a Critical Thinking Conceptual Model to Enhance Critical Thinking Skills in Middle-Eastern Nurses: A Middle-Eastern Experience

This paper aims to describe the development of a critical thinking conceptual model which was constructed to guide the teaching and evaluation of critical thinking skills to Middle-Eastern nurses.

Re-conceptualising IS function's support performance : a preliminary model

While IS function has gained widespread attention for over two decades, there is little consensus among information systems (IS) researchers and practitioners on how best to evaluate IS function's support performance. This paper reports on preliminary findings of a larger research effort proceeds from a central interest in the importance of evaluating IS function's support in organisations. This study is the first that attempts to re-conceptualise and conceive evaluate IS function's support as a multi- dimensional formative construct. We argue that a holistic measure for evaluating evaluate IS function's support should consist of dimensions that together assess the variety of the support functions and the quality of the support services provided to end-users. Thus, the proposed model consists of two halves, "Variety" and "Quality" within which resides seven dimensions. The Variety half includes five dimensions: Training; Documentation; Data- related Support, Software-related Support; and Hardware-related Support. The Quality half includes two dimensions: IS Support Staff and Support Services Performance. The proposed model is derived using a directed content analysis of 83 studies; from top IS outlets, employing the characteristics of the analytic theory and consistent with formative construct development procedures.

Using accelerometer, high sample rate GPS and magnetometer data to develop a cattle movement and behaviour model

The study described in this paper developed a model of animal movement, which explicitly recognised each individual as the central unit of measure. The model was developed by learning from a real dataset that measured and calculated, for individual cows in a herd, their linear and angular positions and directional and angular speeds. Two learning algorithms were implemented: a Hidden Markov model (HMM) and a long-term prediction algorithm. It is shown that a HMM can be used to describe the animal's movement and state transition behaviour within several “stay” areas where cows remained for long periods. Model parameters were estimated for hidden behaviour states such as relocating, foraging and bedding. For cows’ movement between the “stay” areas a long-term prediction algorithm was implemented. By combining these two algorithms it was possible to develop a successful model, which achieved similar results to the animal behaviour data collected. This modelling methodology could easily be applied to interactions of other animal species.

Generic decoupled image-based visual servoing for cameras obeying the unified projection model

In this paper a generic decoupled imaged-based control scheme for calibrated cameras obeying the unified projection model is proposed. The proposed decoupled scheme is based on the surface of object projections onto the unit sphere. Such features are invariant to rotational motions. This allows the control of translational motion independently from the rotational motion. Finally, the proposed results are validated with experiments using a classical perspective camera as well as a fisheye camera mounted on a 6 dofs robot platform.