Applying linear time-varying constraints to econometric models: With an application to demand systems

When linear equality constraints are invariant through time they can be incorporated into estimation by restricted least squares. If, however, the constraints are time-varying, this standard methodology cannot be applied. In this paper we show how to incorporate linear time-varying constraints into the estimation of econometric models. The method involves the augmentation of the observation equation of a state-space model prior to estimation by the Kalman filter. Numerical optimisation routines are used for the estimation. A simple example drawn from demand analysis is used to illustrate the method and its application.

Models of alcohol use by young adults: An examination of various attitude-behavior theories

Objective: The aim of this study was to test the effectiveness of various attitude-behavior theories in explaining alcohol use among young adults. The theory of reasoned action (TRA), the theory of planned behavior and an extension of the TRA that incorporates past behavior were compared by the method of maximum-likelihood estimation, as implemented in LISREL for Windows 8.12. Method: Respondents consisted of 122 university students (82 female) who were questioned about their attitudes, subjective norms, perceived behavioral control, past behavior and intentions relating to drinking behavior. Students received course credit for their participation in the research. Results: Overall, the results suggest that the extension of the theory of reasoned action which incorporates past behavior provides the best fit to the data. For these young adults, their intentions to drink alcohol were predicted by their past behavior as well as their perceptions of what important others think they should do (subjective norm). Conclusions: The main conclusions drawn from the research concern the importance of focusing on normative influences and past behavior in explaining young adult alcohol use. Issues regarding the relative merit of various alternative models and the need for greater clarity in the measure of attitudes are also discussed.

Altered expression of the costimulatory molecules CD80, CD86, CD152, PD-1 and ICOS on T-cells from paracoccidioidomycosis patients: Lack of correlation with T-cell hyporesponsiveness

T-cell proliferative hypo responsiveness, a hallmark of paracoccidioidomycosis immune responses, underlies host`s failure in controlling fungus spread, being reversible with antifungal treatment. The mechanisms leading to this hypoproliferation are not well known. Since costimulatory molecules have been shown to profoundly regulate T-cell immune responses, we investigated the hypothesis that the determinants of the responder versus tolerant state may be the regulated expression of, or signaling by, costimulatory molecules. Expression of CD80, CD86, CD28, CD152, ICOS and PD-1 costimulatory molecules were examined on T-cells and monocytes harvested from stimulated and unstimulated PBMC cultures of active paracoccidioidomycosis patients and healthy individuals cured of past paracoccidioidomycosis. Stimuli were gp43, the immunodominant component of Paracoccidioides brasiliensis, and a Candida antigen. While CD28 expression, critical for optimal T-cell activation, was comparable between patients and controls, CD152, PD-1 and ICOS, which preferentially deliver negative signaling, were overexpressed on patients` stimulated and unstimutated T-cells. PBMC cultures were carried out in presence of the respective blocking antibodies which, however, failed to restore T-cell proliferation. CD80 and CD86 were equally expressed on patients` and controls` monocytes, but overexpressed on patients` T-cells. Blockade with the respective blocking antibodies on day 4 of the culture also did not restore T-cell proliferation, while, on day 0, differentially inhibited Candida and gp43 responses, suggesting that different antigens require different costimulatory pathways for antigen presentation. Our data favors the hypothesis, raised from other foreign antigen models, that prolonged in vivo antigen exposure leads to an adaptive tolerance T-cell state which is hardly reverted in vitro. (C) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Experimental models of sepsis and their clinical relevance

Sepsis remains a major cause of morbidity and mortality mainly because of sepsis-induced multiple organ dysfunction. In contrast to preclinical studies, most clinical trials of promising new treatment strategies for sepsis have failed to demonstrate efficacy. Although many reasons could account for this discrepancy, the misinterpretation of preclinical data obtained from experimental studies and especially the use of animal models that do not adequately mimic human sepsis may have been contributing factors. In this review, the potentials and limitations of various animal models of sepsis are discussed to clarify to which extent these findings are relevant to human sepsis. Such models include intravascular infusion of endotoxin or live bacteria, bacterial peritonitis, cecal ligation and perforation, soft tissue infection, pneumonia or meningitis models using different animal species including rats, mice, rabbits, dogs, pigs, sheep, and nonhuman primates. Despite several limitations, animal models remain essential in the development of all new therapies for sepsis and septic shock because they provide fundamental information about the pharmacokinetics, toxicity, and mechanism of drug action that cannot be replaced by other methods. New therapeutic agents should be studied in infection models, even after the initiation of the septic process. Furthermore, debility conditions need to be reproduced to avoid the exclusive use of healthy animals, which often do not represent the human septic patient.

Acinar cell carcinoma of the pancreas: is the absence of neuroendocrine component related to a more malignant behavior?

Background/Aims: Acinar cell carcinomas are uncommon malignant tumors of the pancreas, accounting for 1-2% of all the cases of exocrine pancreatic tumor. Some authors have estimated acinar cell tumors to be as aggressive as ductal adenocarcinoma of the pancreas whereas other series showed acinar cell tumors to have a favorable clinical outcome. This discrepancy in prognosis may be related to the cellular components of the tumor. Methodology: With the aim to evaluate the possible relationship between the presence of neuroendocrine differentiation and behavior of these tumors, the authors reviewed all patients presenting acinar cell carcinoma of the pancreas in the last 5 years with emphasis in the immunohistochemical evaluation. Results: Four patients presented neuroendocrine differentiation on immunohistochemical evaluation and had a more benign outcome. Two patients without neuroendocrine component had a disseminated disease at presentation. This data suggests that this tumor is less aggressive than ductal adenocarcinoma and even with nodal involvement, long term survival after complete resection can be achieved. Conclusions: It is possible that the absence of neuroendocrine component may be related to a less favorable outcome and adjuvant therapy may be necessary. Due to the rarity of this pancreatic tumor, this relationship remains to be confirmed with a multicentric study including a larger number of patients.

A defense of backwards in time causation models in quantum mechanics

This paper offers a defense of backwards in time causation models in quantum mechanics. Particular attention is given to Cramer's transactional account, which is shown to have the threefold virtue of solving the Bell problem, explaining the complex conjugate aspect of the quantum mechanical formalism, and explaining various quantum mysteries such as Schrodinger's cat. The question is therefore asked, why has this model not received more attention from physicists and philosophers? One objection given by physicists in assessing Cramer's theory was that it is not testable. This paper seeks to answer this concern by utilizing an argument that backwards causation models entail a fork theory of causal direction. From the backwards causation model together with the fork theory one can deduce empirical predictions. Finally, the objection that this strategy is questionable because of its appeal to philosophy is deflected.

Risk Estimates of Dengue in Travelers to Dengue Endemic Areas Using Mathematical Models

Dengue has emerged as a frequent problem in international travelers. The risk depends on destination, duration, and season of travel. However, data to quantify the true risk for travelers to acquire dengue are lacking. We used mathematical models to estimate the risk of nonimmune persons to acquire dengue when traveling to Singapore. From the force of infection, we calculated the risk of dengue dependent on duration of stay and season of arrival. Our data highlight that the risk for nonimmune travelers to acquire dengue in Singapore is substantial but varies greatly with seasons and epidemic cycles. For instance, for a traveler who stays in Singapore for 1 week during the high dengue season in 2005, the risk of acquiring dengue was 0.17%, but it was only 0.00423% during the low season in a nonepidemic year such as 2002. Risk estimates based on mathematical modeling will help the travel medicine provider give better evidence-based advice for travelers to dengue endemic countries.

Exploring the knowledge contained in neuroimages: Statistical discriminant analysis and automatic segmentation of the most significant changes

Objective: The aim of this article is to propose an integrated framework for extracting and describing patterns of disorders from medical images using a combination of linear discriminant analysis and active contour models. Methods: A multivariate statistical methodology was first used to identify the most discriminating hyperplane separating two groups of images (from healthy controls and patients with schizophrenia) contained in the input data. After this, the present work makes explicit the differences found by the multivariate statistical method by subtracting the discriminant models of controls and patients, weighted by the pooled variance between the two groups. A variational level-set technique was used to segment clusters of these differences. We obtain a label of each anatomical change using the Talairach atlas. Results: In this work all the data was analysed simultaneously rather than assuming a priori regions of interest. As a consequence of this, by using active contour models, we were able to obtain regions of interest that were emergent from the data. The results were evaluated using, as gold standard, well-known facts about the neuroanatomical changes related to schizophrenia. Most of the items in the gold standard was covered in our result set. Conclusions: We argue that such investigation provides a suitable framework for characterising the high complexity of magnetic resonance images in schizophrenia as the results obtained indicate a high sensitivity rate with respect to the gold standard. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A hypothesis for explaining single outbreaks (like the Black Death in European cities) of vector-borne infections

We propose a mechanism by which single outbreaks of vector-borne infections can happen even when the value of the basic reproduction number, R(o), of the infection is below one. With this hypothesis we have shown that dynamical models simulations demonstrate that the arrival of a relatively small (with respect to the host population) number of infected vectors can trigger a short-lived epidemic but with a huge number of cases. These episodes are characterized by a sudden outbreak in a previously virgin area that last from weeks to a few months, and then disappear without leaving vestiges. The hypothesis proposed in this paper to explain those single outbreaks of vector-borne infections, even when total basic reproduction number, Ro, is less than one (which explain the fact that those infections fail to establish themselves at endemic levels), is that the vector-to-host component of Ro is greater than one and that a sufficient amount of infected vectors are imported to the vulnerable area, triggering the outbreak. We tested the hypothesis by performing numerical simulations that reproduce the observed outbreaks of chikungunya in Italy in 2007 and the plague in Florence in 1348. The theory proposed provides an explanation for isolated outbreaks of vector-borne infections, ways to calculate the size of those outbreaks from the number of infected vectors arriving in the affected areas. Given the ever-increasing worldwide transportation network, providing a high degree of mobility from endemic to virgin areas, the proposed mechanism may have important implications for public health planning. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Benefits of exercise training in diabetic rats persist after three weeks of detraining

Regarding all benefits of exercise training, a question remains: how long are these benefits kept? This study evaluated the effect of 3-week detraining after 10 weeks of training in STZ-diabetic rats. Male Wistar rats were assigned into: sedentary controls, trained controls, trained-detrained controls. sedentary diabetic, trained diabetic and trained-detrained diabetic. Arterial pressure (AP) and heart rate (HR) were recorded by a data acquisition system. Baroreflex sensitivity (BRS) was evaluated by HR responses to AP changes induced by infusion of vasoactive drugs. Intrinsic heart rate (IHR), sympathetic tonus (ST) and vagal tonus (VT) were evaluated by pharmacological blockade with atenolol and atropine. Spectral analysis of systolic AP and HR variabilities (HRV) was performed to estimate autonomic modulation to the heart and vessels. Diabetes cardiovascular and autonomic dysfunctions were reversed by exercise training and partially maintained in the 3-week detraining period. In controls, training decreased AP and HR and improved BRS. changes that returned to baseline values after detraining. IHR and VT were improved in trained diabetic rats and remained in detrained diabetic ones. LF component of HRV decreased in trained control group. In diabetics. exercise training improved variance, and absolute LF and HF components of HRV. Only HF was maintained in detrained diabetic group. Moreover, there was an inverse relationship between plasma glucose and the absolute HF component of HRV. These changes probably determined the different survival rate of 80% in diabetic detrained and 51% in diabetic sedentary rats. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Independent component analysis applied to raman spectra for classification of in vitro human coronary arteries

Optical diagnostic methods, such as near-infrared Raman spectroscopy allow quantification and evaluation of human affecting diseases, which could be useful in identifying and diagnosing atherosclerosis in coronary arteries. The goal of the present work is to apply Independent Component Analysis (ICA) for data reduction and feature extraction of Raman spectra and to perform the Mahalanobis distance for group classification according to histopathology, obtaining feasible diagnostic information to detect atheromatous plaque. An 830nm Ti:sapphire laser pumped by an argon laser provides near-infrared excitation. A spectrograph disperses light scattered from arterial tissues over a liquid-nitrogen cooled CCD to detect the Raman spectra. A total of 111 spectra from arterial fragments were utilized.