Investor protection and income inequality: risk sharing vs risk taking

This paper studies the relationship between investor protection, entrepreneurial risk taking and income inequality. In the presence of market frictions, better protection makes investors more willing to take on entrepreneurial risk when lending to firms, thereby improving the degree of risk sharing between financiers and entrepreneurs. On the other hand, by increasing risk sharing, investor protection also induces more firms to undertake risky projects. By increasing entrepreneurial risk taking, it raises income dispersion. By reducing the risk faced by entrepreneurs, it reduces income volatility. As a result, investor protection raises income inequality to the extent that it fosters risk taking, while it reduces it for a given level of risk taking. Empirical evidence from a panel of forty-five countries spanning the period 1976-2000 supports the predictions of the model.

Cost evaluation of cardiovascular magnetic resonance versus coronary angiography for the diagnostic work-up of coronary artery disease: Application of the European Cardiovascular Magnetic Resonance registry data to the German, United Kingdom, Swiss, and United States health care systems.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) has favorable characteristics for diagnostic evaluation and risk stratification of patients with known or suspected CAD. CMR utilization in CAD detection is growing fast. However, data on its cost-effectiveness are scarce. The goal of this study is to compare the costs of two strategies for detection of significant coronary artery stenoses in patients with suspected coronary artery disease (CAD): 1) Performing CMR first to assess myocardial ischemia and/or infarct scar before referring positive patients (defined as presence of ischemia and/or infarct scar to coronary angiography (CXA) versus 2) a hypothetical CXA performed in all patients as a single test to detect CAD. METHODS: A subgroup of the European CMR pilot registry was used including 2,717 consecutive patients who underwent stress-CMR. From these patients, 21% were positive for CAD (ischemia and/or infarct scar), 73% negative, and 6% uncertain and underwent additional testing. The diagnostic costs were evaluated using invoicing costs of each test performed. Costs analysis was performed from a health care payer perspective in German, United Kingdom, Swiss, and United States health care settings. RESULTS: In the public sectors of the German, United Kingdom, and Swiss health care systems, cost savings from the CMR-driven strategy were 50%, 25% and 23%, respectively, versus outpatient CXA. If CXA was carried out as an inpatient procedure, cost savings were 46%, 50% and 48%, respectively. In the United States context, cost savings were 51% when compared with inpatient CXA, but higher for CMR by 8% versus outpatient CXA. CONCLUSION: This analysis suggests that from an economic perspective, the use of CMR should be encouraged as a management option for patients with suspected CAD.

Stability and change in party preferences.

This article analyses stability and volatility of party preferences using data from the Swiss Household-Panel (SHP), which, for the first time, allow studying transitions and stability of voters over several years in Switzerland. Analyses cover the years 1999- 2007 and systematically distinguish changes between party blocks and changes within party blocks. The first part looks at different patterns of change, which show relatively high volatility. The second part tests several theories on causes of such changes applying a multinomial random-effects model. Results show that party preferences stabilise with their duration and with age and that the electoral cycle, political sophistication, socio-structural predispositions, the household-context as well as party size and the number of parties each explain part of electoral volatility. Different results for withinand between party-block changes underlie the importance of that differentiation.

Cost evaluation of cardiac magnetic resonance imaging versus coronary angiography for the work-up of coronary artery disease

Background: CMR has recently emerged as a robust and reliable technique to assess coronary artery disease (CAD). A negative perfusion CMR test predicts low event rates of 0.3-0.5%/year. Invasive coronary angiography (CA) remains the "gold standard" for the evaluation of CAD in many countries.Objective: Assessing the costs of the two strategies in the European CMR registry for the work-up of known or suspected CAD from a health care payer perspective. Strategy 1) a CA to all patients or 2) a CA only to patients who are diagnosed positive for ischemia in a prior CMR.Method and results: Using data of the European CMR registry (20 hospitals, 11'040 consecutive patients) we calculated the proportion of patients who were diagnosed positive (20.6%), uncertain (6.5%), and negative (72.9%) after the CMR test in patients with known or suspected CAD (n=2'717). No other medical test was performed to patients who were negative for ischemia. Positive diagnosed patients had a coronary angiography. Those with uncertain diagnosis had additional tests (84.7%: stress echocardiography, 13.1%: CCT, 2.3% SPECT), these costs were added to the CMR strategy costs. Information from costs for tests in Germany and Switzerland were used. A sensibility analysis was performed for inpatient CA. For costs see figure. Results - costs.Discussion: The CMR strategy costs less than the CA strategy for the health insurance systems both, in Germany and Switzerland. While lower in costs, the CMR strategy is a non-invasive one, does not expose to radiation, and yields additional information on cardiac function, viability, valves, and great vessels. Developing the use of CMR instead of CA might imply some reduction in costs together with superior patient safety and comfort, and a better utilization of resources at the hospital level. Document introduit le : 01.12.2011

The rapid urinary drug toxicology screen in the emergency room: a useful tool ?

Intoxications are a frequent problem in the ER. In the vast majorityof cases, supportive treatment is sufficient. Severe intoxications withunknown agents are considered an indication for a urinary drug screen,and are recommended by several toxicology centers. However, theirusefulness for patient management remains uncertain.Study objectives: Evaluation of the impact of a urinary drug screen(Biosite Triage TOX Drug Screen) testing 11 substances(acetaminophen, amphetamines, methamphetamines, barbiturates,benzodiazepines, cocaïne, methadone, opioids, phencyclidine,cannabis, tricyclic antidepressants) on initial adult patient managementin the emergency department of a university hospital with ~35.000annual admissions.Methods: Observational retrospective analysis of all tests performedbetween 09/2009 and 09/2010. A test utility was defined as useful if itresulted in the administration of a specific antidote (Flumazenil/Naloxone), the use of a quantitative confirmatory toxicologic test, or achange in patient's disposition.Results: 57 tests were performed. Patient age was 32 ± 11 (SD) years;58% were men; 30% were also intoxicated with alcohol. Two patientsdied (3.5%): the first one of a diphenhydramin overdose, the other of ahypertensive intracerebral hemorrhage believed to be caused cocaineabuse but a negative urine test. Test indications were: 54% firstpsychotic episode; 25% acute respiratory failure; 18% coma; 12%seizure; 11% opioids toxidrome; 7% sympathicomimetic toxidrome; 5%hypotension; 4% ventricular arrhythmia (VT, VF, torsades de pointes)or long QT. 75% of tests were positives for >=1 substance (mean 1.7 ±0.9). 47% of results were unexpected by history. 18% of resultsinfluenced patient management: 7% had a negative test that confirmedthe diagnosis of endogenous psychosis in a first psychotic episode, andallowed transfer to psychiatry; 5% received flumazenil/naloxone;2% had an acetaminophen blood level after a positive screen; finally,4% had an unexpected methadone abuse that required prolongationof hospital stay.Conclusions: A rapid urinary toxicologic screen was seldom used inour emergency department, and its impact on patient managementwas marginal: only one in 6 tests influenced treatment decisions.

Appropriate treatment for Crohn's disease: methodology and summary results of a multidisciplinary international expert panel approach--EPACT.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: For many therapeutic decisions in Crohn's disease (CD), high-grade evidence is lacking. To assist clinical decision-making, explicit panel-based appropriateness criteria were developed by an international, multidisciplinary expert panel. METHODS: 10 gastroenterologists, 3 surgeons and 2 general practitioners from 12 European countries assessed the appropriateness of therapy for CD using the RAND Appropriateness Method. Their assessment was based on the study of a recent literature review of the subject, combined with their own expert clinical judgment. Panelists rated clinical indications and treatment options using a 9-point scale (1 = extremely inappropriate; 9 = extremely appropriate). These scenarios were then discussed in detail at the panel meeting and re-rated. Median ratings and disagreement were used to aggregate ratings into three assessment categories: appropriate (A), uncertain (U) and inappropriate (I). RESULTS: 569 specific indications were rated, dealing with 9 clinical presentations: mild/moderate luminal CD (n = 104), severe CD (n = 126), steroid-dependent CD (n = 25), steroid-refractory CD (n = 37), fistulizing CD (n = 49), fibrostenotic CD (n = 35), maintenance of medical remission of CD (n = 84), maintenance of surgical remission (n = 78), drug safety in pregnancy (n = 24) and use of infliximab (n = 7). Overall, 146 indications (26%) were judged appropriate, 129 (23%) uncertain and 294 (52%) inappropriate. Frank disagreement was low (14% overall) with the greatest disagreement (54% of scenarios) being observed for treatment of steroid-refractory disease. CONCLUSIONS: Detailed explicit appropriateness criteria for the appropriate use of therapy for CD were developed for the first time by a European expert panel. Disease location, severity and previous treatments were the main factors taken into account. User-friendly access to EPACT criteria is available via an Internet site, www.epact.ch, allowing prospective evaluation and improvement of appropriateness of current CD therapy.

Quantiles of the Realized Stock-Bond Correlation

Abstract: We scrutinize the realized stock-bond correlation based upon high frequency returns. We use quantile regressions to pin down the systematic variation of the extreme tails over their economic determinants. The correlation dependence behaves differently when the correlation is large negative and large positive. The important explanatory variables at the extreme low quantile are the short rate, the yield spread, and the volatility index. At the extreme high quantile the bond market liquidity is also important. The empirical fi…ndings are only partially robust to using less precise measures of the stock-bond correlation. The results are not caused by the recent …financial crisis. Keywords: Extreme returns; Financial crisis; Realized stock-bond correlation; Quantile regressions; VIX. JEL Classifi…cations: C22; G01; G11; G12

Policy evaluation and uncertainty about the effects of oil prices on economic activity

This paper addresses the issue of policy evaluation in a context in which policymakers are uncertain about the effects of oil prices on economic performance. I consider models of the economy inspired by Solow (1980), Blanchard and Gali (2007), Kim and Loungani (1992) and Hamilton (1983, 2005), which incorporate different assumptions on the channels through which oil prices have an impact on economic activity. I first study the characteristics of the model space and I analyze the likelihood of the different specifications. I show that the existence of plausible alternative representations of the economy forces the policymaker to face the problem of model uncertainty. Then, I use the Bayesian approach proposed by Brock, Durlauf and West (2003, 2007) and the minimax approach developed by Hansen and Sargent (2008) to integrate this form of uncertainty into policy evaluation. I find that, in the environment under analysis, the standard Taylor rule is outperformed under a number of criteria by alternative simple rules in which policymakers introduce persistence in the policy instrument and respond to changes in the real price of oil.

Smooth Transition Patterns in the Realized Stock- Bond Correlation

Abstract: We analyze the realized stock-bond correlation. Gradual transitions between negative and positive stock-bond correlation is accommodated by the smooth transition regression (STR) model. The changes in regime are de…ned by economic and …financial transition variables. Both in sample and out-of- sample results document that STR models with multiple transition variables outperform STR models with a single transition variable. The most important transition variables are the short rate, the yield spread, and the VIX volatility index. Keywords: realized correlation; smooth transition regressions; stock-bond correlation; VIX index JEL Classifi…cations: C22; G11; G12; G17

The effects of uncertainty about countries' compliance with the Stability and Growth Pact

The Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) was established to govern discretionary fiscal policy in the European Monetary Union. This article studies the effects created when there is uncertainty about the members’ commitment to respecting the established deficit limits in the SGP. We will show that, even if countries respect the SGP deficit ceiling, the presence of uncertainty about their compliance will bring about higher volatility in key economic variables, which could, in turn, affect unemployment and growth negatively. This finding shows that it is important to reduce uncertainty about the members’ commitment towards the SGP. Keywords: fiscal policy rules, monetary union, Stability and Growth Pact, uncertainty, commitment. JEL No.: E63, F55, H62, H87

Epidemiology of Chagas disease in Ecuador. A brief review

Chagas disease is a complex public health problem that has been underestimated in Ecuador. Here we review the relevant published information, and present unpublished and new data that help to understand the current Chagas disease epidemiological situation and its evolution in the country. Three main characteristics have been identified: (i) persistence of Trypanosoma cruzi transmission in already known foci; (ii) a marked endemicity in some urban areas of Guayaquil; and (iii) the transformation of new Amazon foci into truly endemic areas. The situation in other suspect areas remains uncertain. Five Triatominae species have been implicated in the transmission of T. cruzi to people in Ecuador (Triatoma dimidiata, Rhodnius ecuadoriensis, R. pictipes, R. robustus and Panstrongylus geniculatus), but some others may also play a role in some areas (P. rufotuberculatus, P. howardi, T. carrioni and P. chinai). Other Triatominae reported seem to have little or no epidemiological relevance (T. venosa, T. dispar, Eratyrus mucronatus, E. cuspidatus, P. lignarius and Cavernicola pilosa). High frequency of acute cases and severe chronic disease has been observed. Although cardiomyopathy is more frequent, serious digestive disease is also present. It is estimated that around 120,000-200,000 people may be infected. 2.2 to 3.8 million people are estimated to live under transmission risk conditions.

The ecotopes and evolution of triatomine bugs (triatominae) and their associated trypanosomes

Triatomine bug species such as Microtriatoma trinidadensis, Eratyrus mucronatus, Belminus herreri, Panstrongylus lignarius, and Triatoma tibiamaculata are exquisitely adapted to specialist niches. This suggests a long evolutionary history, as well as the recent dramatic spread a few eclectic, domiciliated triatomine species. Virtually all species of the genus Rhodnius are primarily associated with palms. The genus Panstrongylus is predominantly associated with burrows and tree cavities and the genus Triatoma with terrestrial rocky habitats or rodent burrows. Two major sub-divisions have been defined within the species Trypanosoma cruzi, as T. cruzi 1 (Z1) and T. cruzi 2 (Z2). The affinities of a third group (Z3) are uncertain. Host and habitat associations lead us to propose that T. cruzi 1 (Z1) has evolved in an arboreal, palm tree habitat with the triatomine tribe Rhodniini, in association with the opossum Didelphis. Similarly we propose that T. cruzi (Z2) and Z3 evolved in a terrestrial habitat in burrows and in rocky locations with the triatomine tribe Triatomini, in association with edentates, and/or possibly ground dwelling marsupials. Both sub-divisions of T. cruzi may have been contemporary in South America up to 65 million years ago. Alternatively, T. cruzi 2 (Z2) may have evolved more recently from T. cruzi 1 (Z1) by host transfers into rodents, edentates, and primates. We have constructed a molecular phylogeny of haematophagous vectors, including triatomine bugs, which suggests that faecal transmission of trypanosomes may be the ancestral route. A molecular clock phylogeny suggests that Rhodnius and Triatoma diverged before the arrival, about 40 million years ago, of bats and rodents into South America.

Strategy selection during exploratory behavior: sex differences

This study was designed to assess sex-related differences in the selection of an appropriate strategy when facing novelty. A simple visuo-spatial task was used to investigate exploratory behavior as a specific response to novelty. The exploration task was followed by a visual discrimination task, and the responses were analyzed using signal detection theory. During exploration women selected a local searching strategy in which the metric distance between what is already known and what is unknown was reduced, whereas men adopted a global strategy based on an approximately uniform distribution of choices. Women's exploratory behavior gives rise to a notion of a secure base warranting a sense of safety while men's behavior does not appear to be influenced by risk. This sex-related difference was interpreted as a difference in beliefs concerning the likelihood of uncertain events influencing risk evaluation. Keywords: exploration, spontaneous strategies, sex differences, decision-making.

Activity in inferior parietal and medial prefrontal cortex signals the accumulation of evidence in a probability learning task.

In an uncertain environment, probabilities are key to predicting future events and making adaptive choices. However, little is known about how humans learn such probabilities and where and how they are encoded in the brain, especially when they concern more than two outcomes. During functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), young adults learned the probabilities of uncertain stimuli through repetitive sampling. Stimuli represented payoffs and participants had to predict their occurrence to maximize their earnings. Choices indicated loss and risk aversion but unbiased estimation of probabilities. BOLD response in medial prefrontal cortex and angular gyri increased linearly with the probability of the currently observed stimulus, untainted by its value. Connectivity analyses during rest and task revealed that these regions belonged to the default mode network. The activation of past outcomes in memory is evoked as a possible mechanism to explain the engagement of the default mode network in probability learning. A BOLD response relating to value was detected only at decision time, mainly in striatum. It is concluded that activity in inferior parietal and medial prefrontal cortex reflects the amount of evidence accumulated in favor of competing and uncertain outcomes.

Subclinical peripheral synovitis detected by echography in patients with axial Spondyloarthritis

Background: patients with axial Spondyloarthritis (SD), even withoutany obvious peripheral joint synovitis, often complain of pain in thejoints of arms and legs. Several musculoskeletal ultrasound (US)scores developed in rheumatoid arthritis have demonstrated theircapacity of discovering subclinical synovitis which were relevant interm of disease activity and for treatment strategies. None of thesescores however have been, to our knowledge, applied tospondyloarthritis patients.Objectives: to determine if subclinical synovitis can be detected byechography in patients with SD and if these synovitis are relevantcompared with RA and controls.Methods: the Swiss Sonography in Arthritis and Rheumatism(SONAR) group has developed a reproducible semi-quantitative scorefor RA using OMERACT criteria for synovitis. The score includes Bmode and Doppler mode. 35 out of 40 enrolled SD patients fulfillingthe 2010 diagnostic criteria were evaluated according to the SONARscore. In none of them, peripheral synovitis was clearly demonstrated,although some have or reported recurrent peripheral joint pain. Thescore was also applied to 20 matched controls and 40 consecutive RApatients (RA). 19 of them were in remission (DAS: <2.6), 10 with alow activity (DAS: 2.6 <>3.4) and 11 with a moderate activity disease(DAS: 3.5 <>5.1). All the patients and the controls had a completeclinical, biological and auto-evaluation assessment (joint pain andswelling counts, DAS28, HAQ, BASDAI BASMI, BASFI, m-SACRAH).The ultra-sonographer was blind to all these parameters.Results: a B mode score >8, was set up as a cut-off value forsignificant synovitis as only 10% of the controls (median: 5.9 ± 2.2)and 90% of active RA had a higher score .34% of SD had significantsynovitis which remained mostly mild. Their median B mode score(12 ± 1.6) was higher but not significantly than in remission Ra (7.1 ±3.4). Only active RA (DAS >3.5) had significant higher echographicscores: B mode (17 ± 11), Doppler score and cumulative score forsynovitis grade >1. BASDAI, BASFI, BASMI, m-SACRAH, DAS28 andCRP were not significantly different in SD patients with or withoutsynovitis.Conclusions: some patients with axial Spondyloarthritis havesubclinical but significant peripheral synovitis detected by echography.The impact of these synovitis remains uncertain as their presencedoes not seem to significantly influence disease activity and functionevaluation tools.