Expected values for pedometer-determined physical activity in older populations

The purpose of this review is to update expected values for pedometer-determined physical activity in free-living healthy older populations. A search of the literature published since 2001 began with a keyword (pedometer, "step counter," "step activity monitor" or "accelerometer AND steps/day") search of PubMed, Cumulative Index to Nursing & Allied Health Literature (CINAHL), SportDiscus, and PsychInfo. An iterative process was then undertaken to abstract and verify studies of pedometer-determined physical activity (captured in terms of steps taken; distance only was not accepted) in free-living adult populations described as ≥ 50 years of age (studies that included samples which spanned this threshold were not included unless they provided at least some appropriately age-stratified data) and not specifically recruited based on any chronic disease or disability. We identified 28 studies representing at least 1,343 males and 3,098 females ranging in age from 50–94 years. Eighteen (or 64%) of the studies clearly identified using a Yamax pedometer model. Monitoring frames ranged from 3 days to 1 year; the modal length of time was 7 days (17 studies, or 61%). Mean pedometer-determined physical activity ranged from 2,015 steps/day to 8,938 steps/day. In those studies reporting such data, consistent patterns emerged: males generally took more steps/day than similarly aged females, steps/day decreased across study-specific age groupings, and BMI-defined normal weight individuals took more steps/day than overweight/obese older adults. The range of 2,000–9,000 steps/day likely reflects the true variability of physical activity behaviors in older populations. More explicit patterns, for example sex- and age-specific relationships, remain to be informed by future research endeavors.

The development of the extended adolescent injury checklist (E-AIC) : a measure for injury prevention program evaluation

The Extended Adolescent Injury Checklist (E-AIC), a self-report measure of injury based on the model of the Adolescent Injury Checklist (AIC), was developed for use in the evaluation of school-based interventions. The three stages of this development involved focus groups with adolescents and consultations with medical staff, pilot testing of the revised AIC in a high school context, and use of the finalised checklist in pre- and post-questionnaires to examine its utility. Results revealed that responses to the final version of the E-AIC were meaningful and remained consistent over time. The E-AIC appears to be a promising measure of adolescent injury that is simple, time-efficient and appropriate for use in the evaluation of school-based injury prevention programs.

Development of a workplace wellness promotion pilot framework : a case study of the Blue Care Staff Wellness Program

Workplace wellness initiatives are currently unreflective of the multidimensional and holistic nature of the wellness construct. There exists an opportunity for promoters of health to move toward models of workplace wellness promotion that more fully appreciate the interconnected nature of health dimensions and promote them even-handedly. The Blue Care Staff Wellness Program framework was developed in response to a recognised need for consistent and wellness-focused constructs for workplace wellness promotion and dissemination. The framework promotes and supports the individual and organisational wellness of the Blue Care employee population by providing a comprehensive and sustainable employee wellness program. This has been achieved by the adoption of consistent wellness principles to guide the framework conception and theory based development. The use of the framework in a pilot program will provide insight into the frameworks effectiveness in promoting a comprehensive workplace wellness program, and go further to establish the relationship between wellness and productivity in the workplace.

Communicating friendships : a case study of women in an Australian 'seachange' town

This thesis proposes =friendworks‘ as an important sub-group of social networks, comprised of networks of friends. It investigates friendworks of a particular group of adult Australian women as a way of understanding neglected aspects of social networking practices. Friendworks are contextualised to highlight two main themes of interest: population mobility and communication practices. The impact of relocation on individuals, local communities and the wider society is explored through a case study of female friendworks in a seachange community. Research findings point to the importance of friendworks in building and cohering social and emotional support, well-being, belonging and senses of place and community. Different types of communication methods were used by research participants for mediating different kinds of social ties within the friendworks considered here. Communication patterns were influenced by geographical proximity to friends, and the type of social support required of them (emotional, instrumental or companionship). Most findings were consistent with broader social patterns of communication. For example, face-to-face interactions were the dominant and most favoured communication method between local friends, regardless of whether they were weak or strong ties. The fixed-telephone and the internet were commonly in use to maintain old and geographically distant social ties, while mobile phones were used the least among friends in comparison with other communication methods. The key finding of this thesis is that friendworks are an extremely important solid network in contemporary society, providing mooring relations in a mobile world. Paradoxically, however, for women in this study, the mobile phone, which is popularly perceived as a flexible, multi-purpose communication technology for people on the move, was the least versatile of all technologies for maintaining friendworks. The cost of services was the main inhibitor here. The internet was found to be the most versatile communication technology and was used to support various types of social ties: strong, weak, local and distant. This thesis also highlights the value of the concept of friendworks as well as networks for communication research and policy investigating individuals‘ motivations and practices.

Unpacking Japan's 21st century "National Conversation" : images of the future beyond the iron cage of the "Catch Up" model

How does the image of the future operate upon history, and upon national and individual identities? To what extent are possible futures colonized by the image? What are the un-said futurecratic discourses that underlie the image of the future? Such questions inspired the examination of Japan’s futures images in this thesis. The theoretical point of departure for this examination is Polak’s (1973) seminal research into the theory of the ‘image of the future’ and seven contemporary Japanese texts which offer various alternative images for Japan’s futures, selected as representative of a ‘national conversation’ about the futures of that nation. These seven images of the future are: 1. Report of the Prime Minister’s Commission on Japan’s Goals in the 21st Century—The Frontier Within: Individual Empowerment and Better Governance in the New Millennium, compiled by a committee headed by Japan’s preeminent Jungian psychologist Kawai Hayao (1928-2007); 2. Slow Is Beautiful—a publication by Tsuji Shinichi, in which he re-images Japan as a culture represented by the metaphor of the sloth, concerned with slow and quality-oriented livingry as a preferred image of the future to Japan’s current post-bubble cult of speed and economic efficiency; 3. MuRatopia is an image of the future in the form of a microcosmic prototype community and on-going project based on the historically significant island of Awaji, and established by Japanese economist and futures thinker Yamaguchi Kaoru; 4. F.U.C.K, I Love Japan, by author Tanja Yujiro provides this seven text image of the future line-up with a youth oriented sub-culture perspective on that nation’s futures; 5. IMAGINATION / CREATION—a compilation of round table discussions about Japan’s futures seen from the point of view of Japan’s creative vanguard; 6. Visionary People in a Visionless Country: 21 Earth Connecting Human Stories is a collection of twenty one essays compiled by Denmark born Tokyo resident Peter David Pedersen; and, 7. EXODUS to the Land of Hope, authored by Murakami Ryu, one of Japan’s most prolific and influential writers, this novel suggests a future scenario portraying a massive exodus of Japan’s youth, who, literate with state-of-the-art information and communication technologies (ICTs) move en masse to Japan’s northern island of Hokkaido to launch a cyber-revolution from the peripheries. The thesis employs a Futures Triangle Analysis (FTA) as the macro organizing framework and as such examines both pushes of the present and weights from the past before moving to focus on the pulls to the future represented by the seven texts mentioned above. Inayatullah’s (1999) Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) is the analytical framework used in examining the texts. Poststructuralist concepts derived primarily from the work of Michel Foucault are a particular (but not exclusive) reference point for the analytical approach it encompasses. The research questions which reflect the triangulated analytic matrix are: 1. What are the pushes—in terms of current trends—that are affecting Japan’s futures? 2. What are the historical and cultural weights that influence Japan’s futures? 3. What are the emerging transformative Japanese images of the future discourses, as embodied in actual texts, and what potential do they offer for transformative change in Japan? Research questions one and two are discussed in Chapter five and research question three is discussed in Chapter six. The first two research questions should be considered preliminary. The weights outlined in Chapter five indicate that the forces working against change in Japan are formidable, structurally deep-rooted, wide-spread, and under-recognized as change-adverse. Findings and analyses of the push dimension reveal strong forces towards a potentially very different type of Japan. However it is the seven contemporary Japanese images of the future, from which there is hope for transformative potential, which form the analytical heart of the thesis. In analyzing these texts the thesis establishes the richness of Japan’s images of the future and, as such, demonstrates the robustness of Japan’s stance vis-à-vis the problem of a perceived map-less and model-less future for Japan. Frontier is a useful image of the future, whose hybrid textuality, consisting of government, business, academia, and creative minority perspectives, demonstrates the earnestness of Japan’s leaders in favour of the creation of innovative futures for that nation. Slow is powerful in its aim to reconceptualize Japan’s philosophies of temporality, and build a new kind of nation founded on the principles of a human-oriented and expanded vision of economy based around the core metaphor of slowness culture. However its viability in Japan, with its post-Meiji historical pushes to an increasingly speed-obsessed social construction of reality, could render it impotent. MuRatopia is compelling in its creative hybridity indicative of an advanced IT society, set in a modern day utopian space based upon principles of a high communicative social paradigm, and sustainability. IMAGINATION / CREATION is less the plan than the platform for a new discussion on Japan’s transformation from an econo-centric social framework to a new Creative Age. It accords with emerging discourses from the Creative Industries, which would re-conceive of Japan as a leading maker of meaning, rather than as the so-called guzu, a term referred to in the book meaning ‘laggard’. In total, Love Japan is still the most idiosyncratic of all the images of the future discussed. Its communication style, which appeals to Japan’s youth cohort, establishes it as a potentially formidable change agent in a competitive market of futures images. Visionary People is a compelling image for its revolutionary and subversive stance against Japan’s vision-less political leadership, showing that it is the people, not the futures-making elite or aristocracy who must take the lead and create a new vanguard for the nation. Finally, Murakami’s Exodus cannot be ruled out as a compelling image of the future. Sharing the appeal of Tanja’s Love Japan to an increasingly disenfranchised youth, Exodus portrays a near-term future that is achievable in the here and now, by Japan’s teenagers, using information and communications technologies (ICTs) to subvert leadership, and create utopianist communities based on alternative social principles. The principal contribution from this investigation in terms of theory belongs to that of developing the Japanese image of the future. In this respect, the literature reviews represent a significant compilation, specifically about Japanese futures thinking, the Japanese image of the future, and the Japanese utopia. Though not exhaustive, this compilation will hopefully serve as a useful starting point for future research, not only for the Japanese image of the future, but also for all image of the future research. Many of the sources are in Japanese and their English summations are an added reason to respect this achievement. Secondly, the seven images of the future analysed in Chapter six represent the first time that Japanese image of the future texts have been systematically organized and analysed. Their translation from Japanese to English can be claimed as a significant secondary contribution. What is more, they have been analysed according to current futures methodologies that reveal a layeredness, depth, and overall richness existing in Japanese futures images. Revealing this image-richness has been one of the most significant findings of this investigation, suggesting that there is fertile research to be found from this still under-explored field, whose implications go beyond domestic Japanese concerns, and may offer fertile material for futures thinkers and researchers, Japanologists, social planners, and policy makers.

Drag coefficient in a crystal suspension

A single air bubble rising in xanthan gum crystal suspension has been studied experimentally. The suspension was made by different concentrations of xanthan gum solutions with 0.23 mm polystyrene crystal particles. Drag co-efficient data and a new correlation of drag coefficient is presented for spherical and nonspherical bubbles in non-Newtonian crystal suspension. The correlation is developed in terms of the Reynolds number, Re and the bubble shape factor, � (the ratio between the surface equivalent sphere diameter to the volume equivalent sphere diameter). The experimental drag coefficient was found to be consistent with this new predicted correlation and published data over the ranges, 0.1

Tackling ‘Wicked’ problems holistically with institutionalist policymaking

One of our most pressing needs in creating a more sustainable world is the explicit development of holistic policy. This is becoming increasingly apparent as we are faced with more and more ‘wicked problems', the most difficult class of problems that we can conceptualize. Such problems consist of ‘clusters’ of problems, and include socio-political and moral-spiritual issues. This paper articulates a methodology that can be applied to the analysis and design of underlying organizational structures and processes that will consistently and effectively address wicked problems while being consistent with the advocated 'learning by doing' approach to change management and policy making. This transdisciplinary methodology—known as the institutionalist policymaking framework—has been developed from the perspective of institutional economics synthesized with perspectives from ecological economics and system dynamics. In particular it draws on the work first presented in Hayden’s 1993 paper ‘Institutionalist Policymaking’—and further developed in his 2006 book, at the heart of which lies the SFM—and the applicability of this approach in tackling complex and wicked problems.

Acknowledging social justice and equity through good practice for monitoring student learning engagement in FYE

As higher education institutions respond to government targets to widen participation, their student populations will become increasingly diverse, and the issues around student success and retention will be more closely scrutinised. The concept of student engagement is a key factor in student achievement and retention and Australasian institutions have a range of initiatives aimed at monitoring and intervening with students who are at risk of disengaging. Within the widening participation agenda, it is absolutely critical that these initiatives are designed to enable success for all students, particularly those for whom social and cultural disadvantage have been a barrier. Consequently, for the sector, initiatives of this type must be consistent with the concept of social justice and a set of principles would provide this foundation. This session will provide an opportunity for participants to examine a draft set of principles and to discuss their potential value for the participants’ institutional contexts.

Crown copyright

Copyright protects much of the creative, cultural, educational, scientific and informational material generated by federal, State/Territory and local governments and their constituent departments and agencies. Governments at all levels develop, manage and distribute a vast array of materials in the form of documents, reports, websites, datasets and databases on CD or DVD and files that can be downloaded from a website. Under the Copyright Act 1968 (Cth), with few exceptions government copyright is treated the same as copyright owned by non-government parties insofar as the range of protected materials and the exclusive proprietary rights attaching to them are concerned. However, the rationale for recognizing copyright in public sector materials and vesting ownership of copyright in governments is fundamentally different to the main rationales underpinning copyright generally. The central justification for recognizing Crown copyright is to ensure that government documents and materials created for public administrative purposes are disseminated in an accurate and reliable form. Consequently, the exclusive rights held by governments as copyright owners must be exercised in a manner consistent with the rationale for conferring copyright ownership on them. Since Crown copyright exists primarily to ensure that documents and materials produced for use in the conduct of government are circulated in an accurate and reliable form, governments should exercise their exclusive rights to ensure that their copyright materials are made available for access and reuse, in accordance with any laws and policies relating to access to public sector materials. While copyright law vests copyright owners with extensive bundles of exclusive rights which can be exercised to prevent others making use of the copyright material, in the case of Crown copyright materials these rights should rarely be asserted by government to deviate from the general rule that Crown copyright materials will be available for “full and free reproduction” by the community at large.

Review of the under the limit drink driving rehabilitation program

The combination of alcohol and driving is a major health and economic burden to most communities in industrialised countries. The total cost of crashes for Australia in 1996 was estimated at approximately 15 billion dollars and the costs for fatal crashes were about 3 billion dollars (BTE, 2000). According to the Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Development and Local Government (2009; BITRDLG) the overall cost of road fatality crashes for 2006 $3.87 billion, with a single fatal crash costing an estimated $2.67 million. A major contributing factor to crashes involving serious injury is alcohol intoxication while driving. It is a well documented fact that consumption of liquor impairs judgment of speed, distance and increases involvement in higher risk behaviours (Waller, Hansen, Stutts, & Popkin, 1986a; Waller et al., 1986b). Waller et al. (1986a; b) asserts that liquor impairs psychomotor function and therefore renders the driver impaired in a crisis situation. This impairment includes; vision (degraded), information processing (slowed), steering, and performing two tasks at once in congested traffic (Moskowitz & Burns, 1990). As BAC levels increase the risk of crashing and fatality increase exponentially (Department of Transport and Main Roads, 2009; DTMR). According to Compton et al. (2002) as cited in the Department of Transport and Main Roads (2009), crash risk based on probability, is five times higher when the BAC is 0.10 compared to a BAC of 0.00. The type of injury patterns sustained also tends to be more severe when liquor is involved, especially with injuries to the brain (Waller et al., 1986b). Single and Rohl (1997) reported that 30% of all fatal crashes in Australia where alcohol involvement was known were associated with Breadth Analysis Content (BAC) above the legal limit of 0.05gms/100ml. Alcohol related crashes therefore contributes to a third of the total cost of fatal crashes (i.e. $1 billion annually) and crashes where alcohol is involved are more likely to result in death or serious injury (ARRB Transport Research, 1999). It is a major concern that a drug capable of impairment such as is the most available and popular drug in Australia (Australian Institute of Health and Welfare, 2007; AIHW). According to the AIHW (2007) 89.9% of the approximately 25,000 Australians over the age of 14 surveyed had consumed at some point in time, and 82.9% had consumed liquor in the previous year. This study found that 12.1% of individuals admitted to driving a motor vehicle whilst intoxicated. In general males consumed more liquor in all age groups. In Queensland there were 21503 road crashes in 2001, involving 324 fatalities and the largest contributing factor was alcohol and or drugs (Road Traffic Report, 2001). 23438 road crashes in 2004, involving 289 fatalities and the largest contributing factor was alcohol and or drugs (DTMR, 2009). Although a number of measures such as random breath testing have been effective in reducing the road toll (Watson, Fraine & Mitchell, 1995) the recidivist drink driver remains a serious problem. These findings were later supported with research by Leal, King, and Lewis (2006). This Queensland study found that of the 24661 drink drivers intercepted in 2004, 3679 (14.9%) were recidivists with multiple drink driving convictions in the previous three years covered (Leal et al., 2006). The legal definition of the term “recidivist” is consistent with the Transport Operations (Road Use Management) Act (1995) and is assigned to individuals who have been charged with multiple drink driving offences in the previous five years. In Australia relatively little attention has been given to prevention programs that target high-risk repeat drink drivers. However, over the last ten years a rehabilitation program specifically designed to reduce recidivism among repeat drink drivers has been operating in Queensland. The program, formally known as the “Under the Limit” drink driving rehabilitation program (UTL) was designed and implemented by the research team at the Centre for Accident Research and Road Safety in Queensland with funding from the Federal Office of Road Safety and the Institute of Criminology (see Sheehan, Schonfeld & Davey, 1995). By 2009 over 8500 drink-drivering offenders had been referred to the program (Australian Institute of Crime, 2009).

Asset life prediction and maintenance decision-making using a non-linear non-Gaussian state space model

Estimating and predicting degradation processes of engineering assets is crucial for reducing the cost and insuring the productivity of enterprises. Assisted by modern condition monitoring (CM) technologies, most asset degradation processes can be revealed by various degradation indicators extracted from CM data. Maintenance strategies developed using these degradation indicators (i.e. condition-based maintenance) are more cost-effective, because unnecessary maintenance activities are avoided when an asset is still in a decent health state. A practical difficulty in condition-based maintenance (CBM) is that degradation indicators extracted from CM data can only partially reveal asset health states in most situations. Underestimating this uncertainty in relationships between degradation indicators and health states can cause excessive false alarms or failures without pre-alarms. The state space model provides an efficient approach to describe a degradation process using these indicators that can only partially reveal health states. However, existing state space models that describe asset degradation processes largely depend on assumptions such as, discrete time, discrete state, linearity, and Gaussianity. The discrete time assumption requires that failures and inspections only happen at fixed intervals. The discrete state assumption entails discretising continuous degradation indicators, which requires expert knowledge and often introduces additional errors. The linear and Gaussian assumptions are not consistent with nonlinear and irreversible degradation processes in most engineering assets. This research proposes a Gamma-based state space model that does not have discrete time, discrete state, linear and Gaussian assumptions to model partially observable degradation processes. Monte Carlo-based algorithms are developed to estimate model parameters and asset remaining useful lives. In addition, this research also develops a continuous state partially observable semi-Markov decision process (POSMDP) to model a degradation process that follows the Gamma-based state space model and is under various maintenance strategies. Optimal maintenance strategies are obtained by solving the POSMDP. Simulation studies through the MATLAB are performed; case studies using the data from an accelerated life test of a gearbox and a liquefied natural gas industry are also conducted. The results show that the proposed Monte Carlo-based EM algorithm can estimate model parameters accurately. The results also show that the proposed Gamma-based state space model have better fitness result than linear and Gaussian state space models when used to process monotonically increasing degradation data in the accelerated life test of a gear box. Furthermore, both simulation studies and case studies show that the prediction algorithm based on the Gamma-based state space model can identify the mean value and confidence interval of asset remaining useful lives accurately. In addition, the simulation study shows that the proposed maintenance strategy optimisation method based on the POSMDP is more flexible than that assumes a predetermined strategy structure and uses the renewal theory. Moreover, the simulation study also shows that the proposed maintenance optimisation method can obtain more cost-effective strategies than a recently published maintenance strategy optimisation method by optimising the next maintenance activity and the waiting time till the next maintenance activity simultaneously.

Train schedule coordination at an interchange station through Agent negotiation

In open railway markets, coordinating train schedules at an interchange station requires negotiation between two independent train operating companies to resolve their operational conflicts. This paper models the stakeholders as software agents and proposes an agent negotiation model to study their interaction. Three negotiation strategies have been devised to represent the possible objectives of the stakeholders, and they determine the behavior in proposing offers to the proponent. Empirical simulation results confirm that the use of the proposed negotiation strategies lead to outcomes that are consistent with the objectives of the stakeholders.

Evolutionary biology of Gondwanan non-biting midges (Diptera: Chironomidae)

The potential restriction to effective dispersal and gene flow caused by habitat fragmentation can apply to multiple levels of evolutionary scale; from the fragmentation of ancient supercontinents driving diversification and speciation on disjunct landmasses, to the isolation of proximate populations as a result of their inability to cross intervening unsuitable habitat. Investigating the role of habitat fragmentation in driving diversity within and among taxa can thus include inferences of phylogenetic relationships among taxa, assessments of intraspecific phylogeographic structure and analyses of gene flow among neighbouring populations. The proposed Gondwanan clade within the chironomid (non-biting midge) subfamily Orthocladiinae (Diptera: Chironomidae) represents a model system for investigating the role that population fragmentation and isolation has played at different evolutionary scales. A pilot study by Krosch et al (2009) indentified several highly divergent lineages restricted to ancient rainforest refugia and limited gene flow among proximate sites within a refuge for one member of this clade, Echinocladius martini Cranston. This study provided a framework for investigating the evolutionary history of this taxon and its relatives more thoroughly. Populations of E. martini were sampled in the Paluma bioregion of northeast Queensland to investigate patterns of fine-scale within- and among-stream dispersal and gene flow within a refuge more rigorously. Data was incorporated from Krosch et al (2009) and additional sites were sampled up- and downstream of the original sites. Analyses of genetic structure revealed strong natal site fidelity and high genetic structure among geographically proximate streams. Little evidence was found for regular headwater exchange among upstream sites, but there was distinct evidence for rare adult flight among sites on separate stream reaches. Overall, however, the distribution of shared haplotypes implied that both larval and adult dispersal was largely limited to the natal stream channel. Patterns of regional phylogeographic structure were examined in two related austral orthoclad taxa – Naonella forsythi Boothroyd from New Zealand and Ferringtonia patagonica Sæther and Andersen from southern South America – to provide a comparison with patterns revealed in their close relative E. martini. Both taxa inhabit tectonically active areas of the southern hemisphere that have also experienced several glaciation events throughout the Plio-Pleistocene that are thought to have affected population structure dramatically in many taxa. Four highly divergent lineages estimated to have diverged since the late Miocene were revealed in each taxon, mirroring patterns in E. martini; however, there was no evidence for local geographical endemism, implying substantial range expansion post-diversification. The differences in pattern evident among the three related taxa were suggested to have been influenced by variation in the responses of closed forest habitat to climatic fluctuations during interglacial periods across the three landmasses. Phylogeographic structure in E. martini was resolved at a continental scale by expanding upon the sampling design of Krosch et al (2009) to encompass populations in southeast Queensland, New South Wales and Victoria. Patterns of phylogeographic structure were consistent with expectations and several previously unrecognised lineages were revealed from central- and southern Australia that were geographically endemic to closed forest refugia. Estimated divergence times were congruent with the timing of Plio-Pleistocene rainforest contractions across the east coast of Australia. This suggested that dispersal and gene flow of E. martini among isolated refugia was highly restricted and that this taxon was susceptible to the impacts of habitat change. Broader phylogenetic relationships among taxa considered to be members of this Gondwanan orthoclad group were resolved in order to test expected patterns of evolutionary affinities across the austral continents. The inferred phylogeny and estimated divergence times did not accord with expected patterns based on the geological sequence of break-up of the Gondwanan supercontinent and implied instead several transoceanic dispersal events post-vicariance. Difficulties in appropriate taxonomic sampling and accurate calibration of molecular phylogenies notwithstanding, the sampling regime implemented in the current study has been the most intensive yet performed for austral members of the Orthocladiinae and unsurprisingly has revealed both novel taxa and phylogenetic relationships within and among described genera. Several novel associations between life stages are made here for both described and previously unknown taxa. Investigating evolutionary relationships within and among members of this clade of proposed Gondwanan orthoclad taxa has demonstrated that a complex interaction between historical population fragmentation and dispersal at several levels of evolutionary scale has been important in driving diversification in this group. While interruptions to migration, colonisation and gene flow driven by population fragmentation have clearly contributed to the development and maintenance of much of the diversity present in this group, long-distance dispersal has also played a role in influencing diversification of continental biotas and facilitating gene flow among disjunct populations.

Culture and creative industries in Australia

This paper draws upon the Australian case to argue that the case for support for cultural production and cultural infrastructure has been strengthened overall by its alignment to economic policy goals. In this respect, the rise of creative industries policy discourses is consistent with trends in thinking about cultural policy that have their roots in the Creative Nation strategies of the early 1990s. In terms of the earlier discussion, cultural policy is as much driven by Schumpeterian principals as it is by Keynesian ones. Such an approach is not without attendant risks, and two stand out. The first is the risk of marginalizing the arts, through a policy framework that gives priority to developing the digital content industries, and viewing the creative industries as primarily an innovation platform. The second is that other trends in the economy, such as the strong Australian dollar resulting from the mining boom, undercuts the development of cultural production in the sections of the creative industries where international trade and investment is most significant, such as the film industry and computer games. Nonetheless, after over a decade of vibrant debate, this focus on linking the cultural and economic policy goals of the creative industries has come to be consistent with broader international trends in the field.

A dynamic approach to forecast rental growth

Numerous econometric models have been proposed for forecasting property market performance, but limited success has been achieved in finding a reliable and consistent model to predict property market movements over a five to ten year timeframe. This research focuses on office rental growth forecasts and overviews many of the office rent models that have evolved over the past 20 years. A model by DiPasquale and Wheaton is selected for testing in the Brisbane, Australia office market. The adaptation of this study did not provide explanatory variables that could assist in developing a reliable, predictive model of office rental growth. In light of this result, the paper suggests a system dynamics framework that includes an econometric model based on historical data as well as user input guidance for the primary variables. The rent forecast outputs would be assessed having regard to market expectations and probability profiling undertaken for use in simulation exercises. The paper concludes with ideas for ongoing research.