Denying the foreseeability of an event as a means of self-protection. The Impact of Self-Threatening Outcome Information on the Strength of the Hindsight Bias

The hindsight bias represents the tendency of people to falsely believe that they would have predicted the outcome of an event, once the outcome is known. Two experiments will be presented that show a reduction or even reversal of the hindsight bias when the outcome information is self-threatening for the participants. Participants read a report of an interaction between a man and a woman that ended with different outcomes: The woman was raped vs. the woman was not raped vs. no outcome information was given. Results of the first experiment indicated that especially female participants, who did not accept rape myths, showed a reversed hindsight bias, when they received the rape outcome information. The more threatening the rape outcome had been, the lower was their estimated likelihood of rape. Results of the second experiment confirmed those of the first. Female participants, who did not accept rape myths and perceived themselves highly similar to the victim, showed a strong reversed hindsight bias, when threatened by the rape outcome, whereas female participants, who did believe in rape myth and were not similar to the victim, showed a classical hindsight bias. These effects were interpreted in terms of self-serving or in-group serving functions of the hindsight bias: Participants deny the foreseeability of a self-threatening outcome as a means of self-protection even if they are not personally affected by the negative information, but a member of their group.

Reduced foveal vision enhances peripheral monitoring and peripheral event detection

Introduction: Although it seems plausible that sports performance relies on high-acuity foveal vision, it could be empirically shown that myoptic blur (up to +2 diopters) does not harm performance in sport tasks that require foveal information pick-up like golf putting (Bulson, Ciuffreda, & Hung, 2008). How myoptic blur affects peripheral performance is yet unknown. Attention might be less needed for processing visual cues foveally and lead to better performance because peripheral cues are better processed as a function of reduced foveal vision, which will be tested in the current experiment. Methods: 18 sport science students with self-reported myopia volunteered as participants, all of them regularly wearing contact lenses. Exclusion criteria comprised visual correction other than myopic, correction of astigmatism and use of contact lenses out of Swiss delivery area. For each of the participants, three pairs of additional contact lenses (besides their regular lenses; used in the “plano” condition) were manufactured with an individual overcorrection to a retinal defocus of +1 to +3 diopters (referred to as “+1.00 D”, “+2.00 D”, and “+3.00 D” condition, respectively). Gaze data were acquired while participants had to perform a multiple object tracking (MOT) task that required to track 4 out of 10 moving stimuli. In addition, in 66.7 % of all trials, one of the 4 targets suddenly stopped during the motion phase for a period of 0.5 s. Stimuli moved in front of a picture of a sports hall to allow for foveal processing. Due to the directional hypotheses, the level of significance for one-tailed tests on differences was set at α = .05 and posteriori effect sizes were computed as partial eta squares (ηρ2). Results: Due to problems with the gaze-data collection, 3 participants had to be excluded from further analyses. The expectation of a centroid strategy was confirmed because gaze was closer to the centroid than the target (all p < .01). In comparison to the plano baseline, participants more often recalled all 4 targets under defocus conditions, F(1,14) = 26.13, p < .01, ηρ2 = .65. The three defocus conditions differed significantly, F(2,28) = 2.56, p = .05, ηρ2 = .16, with a higher accuracy as a function of a defocus increase and significant contrasts between conditions +1.00 D and +2.00 D (p = .03) and +1.00 D and +3.00 D (p = .03). For stop trials, significant differences could neither be found between plano baseline and defocus conditions, F(1,14) = .19, p = .67, ηρ2 = .01, nor between the three defocus conditions, F(2,28) = 1.09, p = .18, ηρ2 = .07. Participants reacted faster in “4 correct+button” trials under defocus than under plano-baseline conditions, F(1,14) = 10.77, p < .01, ηρ2 = .44. The defocus conditions differed significantly, F(2,28) = 6.16, p < .01, ηρ2 = .31, with shorter response times as a function of a defocus increase and significant contrasts between +1.00 D and +2.00 D (p = .01) and +1.00 D and +3.00 D (p < .01). Discussion: The results show that gaze behaviour in MOT is not affected to a relevant degree by a visual overcorrection up to +3 diopters. Hence, it can be taken for granted that peripheral event detection was investigated in the present study. This overcorrection, however, does not harm the capability to peripherally track objects. Moreover, if an event has to be detected peripherally, neither response accuracy nor response time is negatively affected. Findings could claim considerable relevance for all sport situations in which peripheral vision is required which now needs applied studies on this topic. References: Bulson, R. C., Ciuffreda, K. J., & Hung, G. K. (2008). The effect of retinal defocus on golf putting. Ophthalmic and Physiological Optics, 28, 334-344.

Search for Event Rate Modulation in XENON100 Electronic Recoil Data

We have searched for periodic variations of the electronic recoil event rate in the (2-6) keV energy range recorded between February 2011 and March 2012 with the XENON100 detector, adding up to 224.6 live days in total. Following a detailed study to establish the stability of the detector and its background contributions during this run, we performed an un-binned profile likelihood analysis to identify any periodicity up to 500 days. We find a global significance of less than 1 sigma for all periods suggesting no statistically significant modulation in the data. While the local significance for an annual modulation is 2.8 sigma, the analysis of a multiple-scatter control sample and the phase of the modulation disfavor a dark matter interpretation. The DAMA/LIBRA annual modulation interpreted as a dark matter signature with axial-vector coupling of WIMPs to electrons is excluded at 4.8 sigma.

High-Frequency in Situ Optical Measurements During a Storm Event: Assessing Relationships Between Dissolved Organic Matter, Sediment Concentrations, and Hydrologic Processes

Dissolved organic matter (DOM) dynamics during storm events has received considerable attention in forested watersheds, but the extent to which storms impart rapid changes in DOM concentration and composition in highly disturbed agricultural watersheds remains poorly understood. In this study, we used identical in situ optical sensors for DOM fluorescence (FDOM) with and without filtration to continuously evaluate surface water DOM dynamics in a 415 km(2) agricultural watershed over a 4 week period containing a short-duration rainfall event. Peak turbidity preceded peak discharge by 4 h and increased by over 2 orders of magnitude, while the peak filtered FDOM lagged behind peak turbidity by 15 h. FDOM values reported using the filtered in situ fluorometer increased nearly fourfold and were highly correlated with dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations (r(2) = 0.97), providing a highly resolved proxy for DOC throughout the study period. Discrete optical properties including specific UV absorbance (SUVA(254)), spectral slope (S(290-350)), and fluorescence index (FI) were also strongly correlated with in situ FDOM and indicate a shift toward aromatic, high molecular weight DOM from terrestrially derived sources during the storm. The lag of the peak in FDOM behind peak discharge presumably reflects the draining of watershed soils from natural and agricultural landscapes. Field and experimental evidence showed that unfiltered FDOM measurements underestimated filtered FDOM concentrations by up to similar to 60% at particle concentrations typical of many riverine systems during hydrologic events. Together, laboratory and in situ data provide insights into the timing and magnitude of changes in DOM quantity and quality during storm events in an agricultural watershed, and indicate the need for sample filtration in systems with moderate to high suspended sediment loads.

The Impact of Property Condition Disclosure Laws on Housing Prices: Evidence from an Event Study using Propensity Scores

We examine the impact of seller's Property Condition Disclosure Law on the residential real estate values. A disclosure law may address the information asymmetry in housing transactions shifting of risk from buyers and brokers to the sellers and raising housing prices as a result. We combine propensity score techniques from the treatment effects literature with a traditional event study approach. We assemble a unique set of economic and institutional attributes for a quarterly panel of 291 US Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) and 50 US States spanning 21 years from 1984 to 2004 is used to exploit the MSA level variation in house prices. The study finds that the average seller may be able to fetch a higher price (about three to four percent) for the house if she furnishes a state-mandated seller.s property condition disclosure statement to the buyer. When we compare the results from parametric and semi-parametric event analyses, we find that the semi-parametric or the propensity score analysis generals moderately larger estimated effects of the law on housing prices.

Effect of patient accrual patterns on power and size of log-rank test for time-to-event outcome in clinical trials

The determination of size as well as power of a test is a vital part of a Clinical Trial Design. This research focuses on the simulation of clinical trial data with time-to-event as the primary outcome. It investigates the impact of different recruitment patterns, and time dependent hazard structures on size and power of the log-rank test. A non-homogeneous Poisson process is used to simulate entry times according to the different accrual patterns. A Weibull distribution is employed to simulate survival times according to the different hazard structures. The current study utilizes simulation methods to evaluate the effect of different recruitment patterns on size and power estimates of the log-rank test. The size of the log-rank test is estimated by simulating survival times with identical hazard rates between the treatment and the control arm of the study resulting in a hazard ratio of one. Powers of the log-rank test at specific values of hazard ratio (≠1) are estimated by simulating survival times with different, but proportional hazard rates for the two arms of the study. Different shapes (constant, decreasing, or increasing) of the hazard function of the Weibull distribution are also considered to assess the effect of hazard structure on the size and power of the log-rank test. ^

Paleomagnetic of the Cobb Mountin event sections

Detailed paleomagnetic investigations are reported for 283 specimens, sampled from three closely spaced Ocean Drilling Program Leg 135 cores from the Lau Basin. These specimens cover three rather similar records of the reversed Cobb Mountain short polarity event, having an age of about 1.12 m.y. On the basis of a very detailed subsampling every 0.6 cm, we found that the transition times for the Cobb Mountain geomagnetic polarity event, as seen in the three Lau Basin sediment records, appear to have been as short as 0.6-1.0 k.y., although the duration of the normal-polarity event itself lasted only about 17 ± 4 k.y. The older (R to N) transition as well as the younger (N to R) transition show virtual geomagnetic paths roughly along the Americas, but shifted some 30° ± 10° to the east. These paths conflict with Cobb Mountain transition paths recorded in sediments from the Labrador Sea and the North Atlantic, but they are in fair accordance with sediment records from the Celebes and Sulu seas when corrected for differences in site longitude, suggesting that the transitional fields are dominated by nonaxial, high-order spherical harmonics.

The Cenomanian/Turronian Boundary Event at ODP Hole 103-641A

Drilling at ODP Site 641 (on the western margin of Galicia Bank, off northwestern Spain) revealed a thin, but pronounced, interval of black shale and gray-green claystone. Our high-resolution study combines the sedimentology, micropaleontology (palynomorphs and others), organic and inorganic geochemistry, and isotopic values of this layer to demonstrate the distinct nature of the sediment and prove that the sequence represents the local sedimentary expression of the global Cenomanian/Turonian Oceanic Anoxic Event (OAE) of Schlanger and Jenkyns (1976), Arthur and Schlanger (1979), and Jenkyns (1980), also called the Cenomanian/Turonian Boundary Event (CTBE). The most striking evidence is that the strong positive d13C excursion characterizing the CTBE sequences in shallow areas can be traced into a pronounced deep-sea expression, thus providing a good stratigraphic marker for the CTBE in various paleosettings. The isotopic excursion at Site 641 coincides with an extremely enriched trace metal content, with values that were previously unknown for the Cretaceous Atlantic. Similar to other CTBE occurrences, the organic carbon content is high (up to 11%) and the organic matter is of dominantly marine origin (kerogen type II). The bulk mineralogy of the CTBE sediments does not differ significantly from the general trend of Cretaceous North Atlantic sediments (dominance of smectite and zeolite with minor amounts of illite and scattered palygorskite, kaolinite, and chlorite); thus, no evidence for either increased volcanic activity nor a drastic climatic change in the borderlands was found. Results from Site 641 are compared with the CTBE section found at Site 398, DSDP Leg 47B (Vigo Seamount at the southern end of the Galicia Bank).

Tab. 1 Mole % CO2 and 13C values of CO2 at baseline and at the final monitoring event for the eight observation wells

During CO2 storage operations in mature oilfields or saline aquifers it is desirable to trace the movement of injected CO2 for verification and safety purposes. We demonstrate the successful use of carbon isotope abundance ratios for tracing the movement of CO2 injected at the Cardium CO2 Storage Monitoring project in Alberta between 2005 and 2007. Injected CO2 had a d13C value of -4.6±1.1 per mil that was more than 10 per mil higher than the carbon isotope ratios of casing gas CO2 prior to CO2 injection with average d13C values ranging from -15.9 to -23.5 per mil. After commencement of CO2 injection, d13C values of casing gas CO2 increased in all observation wells towards those of the injected CO2 consistent with a two-source end-member mixing model. At four wells located in a NE-SW trend with respect to the injection wells, breakthrough of injected CO2 was registered chemically (>50 mol % CO2) and isotopically 1-6 months after commencement of CO2 injection resulting in cumulative CO2 fluxes exceeding 100000 m**3 during the observation period. At four other wells, casing gas CO2 contents remained below 5 mol % resulting in low cumulative CO2 fluxes (<2000 m**3) throughout the entire observation period, but carbon isotope ratios indicated contributions between <30 and 80% of injected CO2. Therefore, we conclude that monitoring the movement of CO2 in the injection reservoir with geochemical and isotopic techniques is an effective approach to determine plume expansion and to identify potential preferential flow paths provided that the isotopic composition of injected CO2 is constant and distinct from that of baseline CO2.

Paleomegnetic and geochemistry of sediments from the early Aptian Oceanic Anoxic Event

The early Aptian Oceanic Anoxic Event (OAE1a, 120 Ma) represents a geologically brief time interval in the mid-Cretaceous greenhouse world that is characterized by increased organic carbon accumulation in marine sediments, sudden biotic changes, and abrupt carbon-isotope excursions indicative of significant perturbations to global carbon cycling. The brevity of these drastic environmental changes (< 10**6 year) and the typically 10**6 year temporal resolution of the available chronologies, however, represent a critical gap in our knowledge of OAE1a. We have conducted a high-resolution investigation of three widely distributed sections, including the Cismon APTICORE in Italy, Santa Rosa Canyon in northeastern Mexico, and Deep Sea Drilling Project (DSDP) Site 398 off the Iberian margin in the North Atlantic Ocean, which represent a range of depositional environments where condensed and moderately expanded OAE1a intervals are recorded. The objectives of this study are to establish orbital chronologies for these sections and to construct a common, high-resolution timescale for OAE1a. Spectral analyses of the closely-spaced (corresponding to ~5 to 10 kyr) measurements of calcium carbonate content of the APTICORE, magnetic susceptibility (MS) and anhysteretic remanent magnetization (ARM) of the Santa Rosa samples, and MS, ARM and ARM/IRM, where IRM is isothermal remanent magnetization, of Site 398 samples reveal statistically significant cycles. These cycles exhibit periodicity ratios and modulation patterns similar to those of the mid-Cretaceous orbital cycles, suggesting that orbital variations may have modulated depositional processes. Orbital control allows us to estimate the duration of unique, globally identifiable stages of OAE1a. Although OAE1a had a duration of ~1.0 to 1.3 Myr, the initial perturbation represented by the negative carbon-isotope excursion was rapid, lasting for ~27-44 kyr. This estimate could serve as a basis for constraining triggering mechanisms for OAE1a.

Minimum water input event for seedling emergence of three native perennial grasses of the Central Monte desert (Argentina) influenced by the effect of shade and the season of the year

In deserts, seedling emergence occurs only after precipitation threshold has been exceeded, however, the presence of trees modifies microenvironmental conditions that might affect the effectiveness of a water pulse. In the Monte desert, Prosopis flexuosa trees generate different micro-environmental conditions that might influence grass seedlings establishment. The objective of this work was: a) to know the effective minimum water input event that triggers the emergence of native perennial grass seedlings; b) to relate this fact with the effect of the shade of P. flexuosa canopy and the seasonal temperatures. Three important forage species of the Monte were studied: Pappophorum caespitosum and Trichloris crinita, with C4, and Jarava ichu, with C3 metabolism. Each season, seeds of these species were sown in pots placed at two light conditions: shade (similar to P. flexuosa cover) and open area, and with seven irrigation treatments (0, 10, 20, 30, 40, 2*10 and 3*10 mm). J. ichu did not emerge in any of the treatments. Significant seedling emergence was registered for P. caespitosum and T. crinita in shade conditions with 40 mm irrigation treatment in summer. Since 40 mm precipitation events are infrequent in the Monte, seedling emergence for these species would be restricted to exceptional rainy years. The facilitating effect of P. flexuosa shade would be important during the hot season.