A BDI-based approach for the assessment of driver's decision-making in commuter scenarios

The rapid growth of urban areas has a significant impact on traffic and transportation systems. New management policies and planning strategies are clearly necessary to cope with the more than ever limited capacity of existing road networks. The concept of Intelligent Transportation System (ITS) arises in this scenario; rather than attempting to increase road capacity by means of physical modifications to the infrastructure, the premise of ITS relies on the use of advanced communication and computer technologies to handle today’s traffic and transportation facilities. Influencing users’ behaviour patterns is a challenge that has stimulated much research in the ITS field, where human factors start gaining great importance to modelling, simulating, and assessing such an innovative approach. This work is aimed at using Multi-agent Systems (MAS) to represent the traffic and transportation systems in the light of the new performance measures brought about by ITS technologies. Agent features have good potentialities to represent those components of a system that are geographically and functionally distributed, such as most components in traffic and transportation. A BDI (beliefs, desires, and intentions) architecture is presented as an alternative to traditional models used to represent the driver behaviour within microscopic simulation allowing for an explicit representation of users’ mental states. Basic concepts of ITS and MAS are presented, as well as some application examples related to the subject. This has motivated the extension of an existing microscopic simulation framework to incorporate MAS features to enhance the representation of drivers. This way demand is generated from a population of agents as the result of their decisions on route and departure time, on a daily basis. The extended simulation model that now supports the interaction of BDI driver agents was effectively implemented, and different experiments were performed to test this approach in commuter scenarios. MAS provides a process-driven approach that fosters the easy construction of modular, robust, and scalable models, characteristics that lack in former result-driven approaches. Its abstraction premises allow for a closer association between the model and its practical implementation. Uncertainty and variability are addressed in a straightforward manner, as an easier representation of humanlike behaviours within the driver structure is provided by cognitive architectures, such as the BDI approach used in this work. This way MAS extends microscopic simulation of traffic to better address the complexity inherent in ITS technologies.

Bases de confiança de relacionamento entre agentes: um estudo sobre seu efeito na reação cognitiva e comportamental dos agentes

Apesar da confiança entre os agentes ser fundamental para a estabilização do relacionamento, são frequentes os eventos de incerteza sobre o comportamento do outro, que podem gerar percepções de violação de confiança entre os agentes. Dada essa constatação, o entendimento de variáveis que podem influenciar os efeitos advindos de uma percepção de violação de confiança ganha relevância cada vez maior nos estudos de confiança. Dos vários elementos estudados na literatura para mediar os efeitos de uma percepção de violação de confiança, o objetivo do estudo foi investigar o efeito que o tipo de relacionamento prévio entre os agentes pode exercer na reação cognitiva e comportamental dos agentes, em situações em que há incerteza sobre o comportamento cooperativo do parceiro. Especificamente, o objetivo do trabalho foi comparar o efeito que diferentes tipos de relacionamento prévio entre os agentes – baseado em confiança calculativa ou relacional – exerce em duas dimensões de reação a um evento negativo na relação. Na dimensão cognitiva, comparou-se os efeitos que diferentes tipos de relacionamento prévio entre os agentes exercem no nível de confiabilidade atribuído à contraparte, após um evento negativo entre eles. Na dimensão comportamental, comparou-se os efeitos que diferentes tipos de relacionamento prévio exercem na posição de risco assumida pelos agentes, após o evento indesejado. Para isto, realizou-se um experimento para testar em ambiente laboratorial a reação dos agentes a um resultado negativo na interação, a partir da criação de dois contextos diferentes de relacionamento entre eles. Os resultados do experimento mostraram que, comparados com relacionamentos de base calculativa, aqueles de base relacional são mais resistentes a distúrbios externos, visto que eles geram atribuição causal mais positiva e maior nível de confiabilidade percebida sobre o outro após um evento negativo entre os agentes. Além disto, esta percepção de confiabilidade influencia positivamente as posições de risco assumidas pelos agentes após o evento negativo, de forma que riscos maiores são assumidos em relacionamentos de base de confiança relacional. Por fim, os resultados também reforçam que quanto maior a posição de risco assumida por um agente, maior é o nível de cooperação do seu parceiro.

Uma análise energética da cristalização por resfriamento na indústria da cana-de-açúcar

Os mercados dos produtos oriundos da cana-de-açúcar no mundo vêm sofrendo nos últimos anos mudanças estruturais significativas. No cenário brasileiro, houve grande expansão da produção de cana-de-açúcar, impulsionados pela demanda dos carros flex –fuel, além da oportunidade de suprir o volume de açúcar que a União Europeia deixara de colocar no mercado mundial pela eliminação da subvenção aos exportadores de açúcar do bloco. As incertezas dos mercados exigem mudanças de estratégias de negócio, usinas projetadas para produção exclusiva de etanol, alteram sua estratégia para produção conjunta etanol e açúcar. Apesar dos processos comuns para produção de açúcar e etanol, não significa que essa mudança de estratégia seja fácil de ser efetivada, principalmente pelo aspecto energético. Estudos de processo de produção de açúcar mais eficientes energeticamente, com custos menores tem ganhado força na União Europeia, dentre elas a cristalização do açúcar por resfriamento. Vários cenários produtivos inclusive integrados a produção de etanol tem sido desenvolvidos ao longo dos anos. O objetivo do trabalho foi verificar por comparação de cenários, duas tecnologias de cristalização do açúcar (cozimento e resfriamento), em relação ao impacto nos excedentes de energia elétrica quando a produção de açúcar é adicionada a unidades que produzem somente etanol e energia elétrica. Por meio de simulações dos balanços térmicos dos cenários, observou-se uma restrição importante quando adotado a cristalização por cozimento, no que se refere aos volumes de excedentes de energia elétrica, e que pode ser minimizado se adotado o processo de cristalização por resfriamento, podendo assim ser uma alternativa quando se deseja mudar a estratégia do negócio, de produção exclusiva de etanol e energia elétrica para etanol, açúcar e energia elétrica.

Avaliação para adequação de capital em risco de crédito sob um modelo de teste de estresse : uma abordagem objetiva

O presente trabalho visa propor uma metodologia para Teste de estresse e, consequentemente, cálculo do colchão adicional de capital em risco de crédito, conforme exigência do Comitê de Supervisão Bancária. A metodologia consiste em utilizar informações macroeconômicas para determinar o comportamento da taxa de inadimplência. Dessa forma, podemos simular possíveis cenários econômicos e, com isso, a taxa de inadimplência associada a esse cenário. Para cada cenário econômico é obtida uma taxa. Cada taxa de inadimplência fornece uma curva de perdas. Simulando diversos cenários econômicos foi possível obter diversas curvas de perda e, com elas, a probabilidade de ocorrência da perda esperada e inesperada. A metodologia foi aplicada a uma carteira de crédito pessoal para pessoa física. Os resultados se mostraram bastantes eficientes para determinar a probabilidade de ocorrência do Capital Alocado. Como consequência do teste, dado um nível de confiança, foi possível determinar qual deveria ser o Capital Alocado para fazer frente às perdas acima da perda inesperada.

Negociação distributiva: o comportamento do executivo brasileiro

Este relatório descreve uma pesquisa realizada entre agosto de 2002 e dezembro de 2004. Foram coletados mais de 1.100 registros de exercícios de negociações distributivas realizadas em duplas por alunos de pós-graduação. Os resultados confirmam algumas expectativas encontradas na literatura, mas revelam também aspectos surpreendentes, tais como a constatação de que, numa negociação distributiva, o valor final do acordo não exerce praticamente nenhuma influência sobre a satisfação dos envolvidos. Igualmente surpreendente foi constatar que, ao contrário do que se supõe, a satisfação dos dois lados envolvidos apresenta correlação positiva. Constatou-se ainda que o impacto da oferta inicial numa negociação distributiva é menor primeira contraproposta. O conjunto destas três constatações principais permite desenvolver táticas para otimizar resultados em situações distributivas.

Contagion in financial networks: a network theory and agent-based approaches to modeling the spread of risk in financial systems

Esta dissertação estuda a propagação de crises sobre o sistema financeiro. Mais especi- ficamente, busca-se desenvolver modelos que permitam simular como um determinado choque econômico atinge determinados agentes do sistema financeiro e apartir dele se propagam, transformando-se em um problema sistêmico. A dissertação é dividida em dois capítulos,além da introdução. O primeiro capítulo desenvolve um modelo de propa- gação de crises em fundos de investimento baseado em ciência das redes.Combinando dois modelos de propagação em redes financeiras, um simulando a propagação de perdas em redes bipartites de ativos e agentes financeiros e o outro simulando a propagação de perdas em uma rede de investimentos diretos em quotas de outros agentes, desenvolve-se um algoritmo para simular a propagação de perdas através de ambos os mecanismos e utiliza-se este algoritmo para simular uma crise no mercado brasileiro de fundos de investimento. No capítulo 2,desenvolve-se um modelo de simulação baseado em agentes, com agentes financeiros, para simular propagação de um choque que afeta o mercado de operações compromissadas.Criamos também um mercado artificial composto por bancos, hedge funds e fundos de curto prazo e simulamos a propagação de um choque de liquidez sobre um ativo de risco securitizando utilizado para colateralizar operações compromissadas dos bancos.

Modos projetuais de simulação: uso de ferramentas de simulação térmica no processo projetual de arquitetura

This thesis aims to describe and demonstrate the developed concept to facilitate the use of thermal simulation tools during the building design process. Despite the impact of architectural elements on the performance of buildings, some influential decisions are frequently based solely on qualitative information. Even though such design support is adequate for most decisions, the designer will eventually have doubts concerning the performance of some design decisions. These situations will require some kind of additional knowledge to be properly approached. The concept of designerly ways of simulating focuses on the formulation and solution of design dilemmas, which are doubts about the design that cannot be fully understood nor solved without using quantitative information. The concept intends to combine the power of analysis from computer simulation tools with the capacity of synthesis from architects. Three types of simulation tools are considered: solar analysis, thermal/energy simulation and CFD. Design dilemmas are formulated and framed according to the architect s reflection process about performance aspects. Throughout the thesis, the problem is investigated in three fields: professional, technical and theoretical fields. This approach on distinct parts of the problem aimed to i) characterize different professional categories with regards to their design practice and use of tools, ii) investigate preceding researchers on the use of simulation tools and iii) draw analogies between the proposed concept, and some concepts developed or described in previous works about design theory. The proposed concept was tested in eight design dilemmas extracted from three case studies in the Netherlands. The three investigated processes are houses designed by Dutch architectural firms. Relevant information and criteria from each case study were obtained through interviews and conversations with the involved architects. The practical application, despite its success in the research context, allowed the identification of some applicability limitations of the concept, concerning the architects need to have technical knowledge and the actual evolution stage of simulation tools

A influência de decisões arquitetônicas na eficiência energética do Campus vol. 1/UFRN

Building design is an effective way to achieve HVAC energy consumption reduction. However, this potentiality is often neglected by architects due to the lack of references to support design decisions. This works intends to propose architectural design guidelines for energy efficiency and thermal performance of Campus/UFRN buildings. These guidelines are based on computer simulations results using the software DesignBuilder. The definition of simulation models has begun with envelope variables, partially done after a field study of thirteen buildings at UFRN/Campus. This field study indicated some basic envelope patterns that were applied in simulation models. Occupation variables were identified with temperature and energy consumption monitoring procedures and a verification of illumination and equipment power, both developed at the Campus/UFRN administration building. Three simulation models were proposed according to different design phases and decisions. The first model represents early design decisions, simulating the combination of different types of geometry with three levels of envelope thermal performance. The second model, still as a part of early design phase, analyses thermal changes between circulation halls lateral and central and office rooms, as well as the heat fluxes and monthly temperatures in each circulation hall. The third model analyses the influence of middle-design and detail design decisions on energy consumption and thermal performance. In this model, different solutions of roofs, shading devices, walls and external colors were simulated. The results of all simulation models suggest a high influence of thermal loads due to the incidence of solar radiation on windows and surfaces, which highlights the importance of window shading devices, office room orientation and absorptance of roof and walls surfaces

Compósitos Portland-biopolímeros para cimentação de poços de petróleo

The oil production in mature areas can be improved by advanced recovery techniques. In special, steam injection reduces the viscosity of heavy oils, thus improving its flow to surrounding wells. On the other hand, the usually high temperatures and pressures involved in the process may lead to cement cracking, negatively affecting both the mechanical stability and zonal isolation provided by the cement sheath of the well. The addition of plastic materials to the cement is an alternative to prevent this scenario. Composite slurries consisting of Portland cement and a natural biopolymer were studied. Samples containing different contents of biopolymer dispersed in a Portland cement matrix were prepared and evaluated by mechanical and rheological tests in order to assess their behavior according to API (American Petroleum Institute) guidelines. FEM was also applied to map the stress distribution encountered by the cement at bottom bole. The slurries were prepared according to a factorial experiment plan by varying three parameters, i.e., cement age, contents of biopolymer and water-to-cement ratio. The results revealed that the addition of the biopolymer reduced the volume of free water and the setting time of the slurry. In addition, tensile strength, compressive strength and toughness improved by 30% comparing hardened composites to plain Portland slurries. FEM results suggested that the stresses developed at bottomhole may be 10 to 100 times higher than the strength of the cement as evaluated in the lab by unconfined mechanical testing. An alternative approach is proposed to adapt the testing methodology used to evaluate the mechanical behavior of oilwell cement slurries by simulating the confined conditions encountered at bottornhole

Estudo de adsorvente obtido de terras diatomáceas para remoção de metais pesados em águas produzidas: processamento, caracterização e dinâmica em leito fixo

The acceleration of industrial growth in recent decades on all continents aroused the interest of the companies to counter the impacts produced on the environment, spurred primarily by major disasters in the petroleum industry. In this context, the water produced is responsible for the largest volume of effluent from the production and extraction of oil and natural gas. This effluent has in its composition some critical components such as inorganic salts, heavy metals (Fe, Cu, Zn, Pb, Cd, ), presence of oil and chemicals added in the various production processes. In response to impact, have been triggered by research alternative adsorbent materials for water treatment and water produced, in order to removing oils and acids and heavy metals. Many surveys of diatomaceous earth (diatomite) in Brazil involve studies on the physico-chemical, mineral deposits, extraction, processing and applications. The official estimated Jazi are around 2.5 million tonnes, the main located in the states of Bahia (44%) and Rio Grande do Norte (37,4%). Moreover, these two states appear as large offshore producers, earning a prominent role in research of adsorbents such as diatomite for treatment of water produced. Its main applications are as an agent of filtration, adsorption of oils and greases, industrial load and thermal insulator. The objective of this work was the processing and characterization of diatomite diatomaceous earth obtained from the municipality of Macaíba-RN (known locally as tabatinga) as a low cost regenerative adsorbent for removal of heavy metals in the application of water produced treatment. In this work we adopted a methodology for batch processing, practiced by small businesses located in producing regions of Brazil. The characterization was made by X-ray diffraction (XRD), scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and specific surface area (BET). Research conducted showed that the improvement process used was effective for small volume production of diatomite concentrated. The diatomite obtained was treated by calcination at temperature of 900 oC for 2 hours, with and without fluxing Na2CO3 (4%), according to optimal results in the literature. Column adsorption experiments were conducted to percolation of the in nature, calcined and calcined fluxing diatomites. Effluent was used as a saline solution containing ions of Cu, Zn, Na, Ca and Mg simulating the composition of produced waters in the state of Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil. The breakthrough curves for simultaneous removal of copper ions and zinc as a result, 84.3% for calcined diatomite and diatomite with 97.3 % for fluxing. The calcined fluxing diatomite was more efficient permeability through the bed and removal of copper and zinc ions. The fresh diatomite had trouble with the permeability through the bed under the conditions tested, compared with the other obtained diatomite. The results are presented as promising for application in the petroleum industry

Transfer function-noise modeling and spatial interpolation to evaluate the risk of extreme (shallow) water-table levels in the Brazilian Cerrados

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Resistência da artéria carótida e autônima funcional em mulheres idosas

High carotid artery resistance indices in the elderly arise mainly as a result of harmful daily lifestyle behavior and poor eating habits. The aim of this multidisciplinary study was to assess and correlate carotid artery resistance and functional autonomy in elderly women. A descriptive, exploratory cross-sectional study was conducted with a sample comprising 27 women, enrolled in pastoral programs in the city of Teresina, Brazil. Carotid artery resistance was assessed by a high-resolution Doppler ultrasound device and functional autonomy was evaluated through five protocol tests of the Latin American Development Group for the Elderly (GDLAM), simulating activities of daily life. The data were analyzed by the Shapiro-Wilk test and the correlation by Spearman s test, considering a p-value of <0.05. The sample consisted of women with mean age and standard deviation of (68.67 ± 4.52) years, respectively and carotid resistance index of (0.71 ± 0.07). The general index value of functional autonomy classified the elderly of the study group as weak in the performance of activities of daily living (30.46 ± 6.31). The general index of functional autonomy showed a high level of sedentary behavior in the group studied (p < 0.01). The sample was classified as weak in the performance of activities of daily life. The correlation coefficient between the carotid resistance index and the general GDLAM index was r = 0.998 and p = 0.000, showing a significant correlation. The elderly women assessed had a high carotid artery resistance index and low functional autonomy; a positive correlation was found between the dependent variables studied. To perform this study we formed a team composed of a nurse, who helped in organizing the sample and performing the examinations; a radiologist, who conducted the Doppler examinations; an angiologist, who collaborated in interpreting examination data; in addition to two physical education professors and two physical therapists, who applied the functional autonomy tests and conducted the 34 research along elderly health lines, contributing thus to the multidisciplinary character, fundamental for carrying out the study

Reaction of Bipolaris euphorbiae to environmental factors and its tolerance to solar and ultraviolet radiation

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Estudo numérico do comportamento de muros de arrimo em alvenaria estrutural de blocos vazados

Usually masonry structures has low tension strength, hence the design to flexural efforts can results in high reinforcement ratio, specification of high unit and prism strength, structural members with larger section dimensions and modification in structural arrangement to be possible to use masonry members. The main objective of this study is to evaluate the stiffness, the efforts distribution and the effect of horizontal elements (girders) and vertical elements (counterforts) distribution on the behavior of masonry blocks retaining walls. For this purpose, numerical modeling was performed on typical retaining wall arrangements by varying the amount and placement of horizontal and vertical elements, beyond includes elements simulating the reactions of the soil supporting the foundation of the wall. The numerical modeling also include the macro modeling strategy in which the units, mortar and grout are discretized by a standard volume that represents the masonry elastic behavior. Also, numerical model results were compared with those ones of simplified models usually adopted in bending design of masonry elements. The results show horizontal displacements, principal and shear stresses distribution, and bending moments diagrams. From the analysis it was concluded that quantity and manner of distribution of the girders are both important factors to the panel flexural behavior, the inclusion of the foundation changed significantly the behavior of the wall, especially the horizontal displacements, and has been proposed a new way of considering the flanges section of the counterforts

Análise comparativa do desempenho de um Controlador Fuzzy acoplado a um PID Neural sintonizado por um Algoritmo Genético com Controladores Inteligentes Convencionais

On this paper, it is made a comparative analysis among a controller fuzzy coupled to a PID neural adjusted by an AGwith several traditional control techniques, all of them applied in a system of tanks (I model of 2nd order non lineal). With the objective of making possible the techniques involved in the comparative analysis and to validate the control to be compared, simulations were accomplished of some control techniques (conventional PID adjusted by GA, Neural PID (PIDN) adjusted by GA, Fuzzy PI, two Fuzzy attached to a PID Neural adjusted by GA and Fuzzy MISO (3 inputs) attached to a PIDN adjusted by GA) to have some comparative effects with the considered controller. After doing, all the tests, some control structures were elected from all the tested techniques on the simulating stage (conventional PID adjusted by GA, Fuzzy PI, two Fuzzy attached to a PIDN adjusted by GA and Fuzzy MISO (3 inputs) attached to a PIDN adjusted by GA), to be implemented at the real system of tanks. These two kinds of operation, both the simulated and the real, were very important to achieve a solid basement in order to establish the comparisons and the possible validations show by the results