Use of Data Driven Techniques for Short Lead Time Streamflow Forecasting in Mahanadi basin

Streamflow forecasts at daily time scale are necessary for effective management of water resources systems. Typical applications include flood control, water quality management, water supply to multiple stakeholders, hydropower and irrigation systems. Conventionally physically based conceptual models and data-driven models are used for forecasting streamflows. Conceptual models require detailed understanding of physical processes governing the system being modeled. Major constraints in developing effective conceptual models are sparse hydrometric gauge network and short historical records that limit our understanding of physical processes. On the other hand, data-driven models rely solely on previous hydrological and meteorological data without directly taking into account the underlying physical processes. Among various data driven models Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) are most widely used techniques. The present study assesses performance of ARIMA and ANNs methods in arriving at one-to seven-day ahead forecast of daily streamflows at Basantpur streamgauge site that is situated at upstream of Hirakud Dam in Mahanadi river basin, India. The ANNs considered include Feed-Forward back propagation Neural Network (FFNN) and Radial Basis Neural Network (RBNN). Daily streamflow forecasts at Basantpur site find use in management of water from Hirakud reservoir. (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Electric field induced short range to long range structural ordering and its influence on the Eu+3 photoluminescence in the lead-free ferroelectric Na1/2Bi1/2TiO3

Eu+3 was incorporated into the lattice of a lead-free ferroelectric Na1/2Bi1/2TiO3 (NBT) as per the nominal formula Na0.5Bi0.5-xEuxTiO3. This system was investigated with regard to the Eu+3 photoluminescence (PL) and structural behaviour as a function of composition and electric field. Electric field was found to irreversibly change the features in the PL spectra and also in the x-ray diffraction patterns below the critical composition x = 0.025. Detailed analysis revealed that below the critical composition, electric field irreversibly suppresses the structural heterogeneity inherent of the host matrix NBT and brings about a long range ferroelectric state with rhombohedral (R3c) distortion. It is shown that the structural disorder on the nano-scale opens a new channel for radiative transition which manifests as a new emission line branching off from the main D-5(0)-> F-7(0) line along with a concomitant change in the relative intensity of the other crystal field induced Stark lines with different J values. The study suggests that Eu+3 luminescence can be used to probe the relative degree of field induced structural ordering in relaxor ferroelectrics and also in high performance piezoelectric alloys where electric field couples very strongly with the lattice and structural degrees of freedom. (C) 2015 AIP Publishing LLC.

A Short Review on Lu-Hf Isotope System in Zircon: Implications for Crustal Evolution

Zircon has been recognized as the unaltered part of the Earth's history which preserves nearly 4 billion year record of earth's evolution. Zircon preserves igneous and metamorphic processes during its formation and remains unaffected by sedimentary processes and crustal recycling. U-Pb and Lu-Hf in zircon work as geochronometer and geochemical tracer respectively. Zircon provide valuable information about the source composition of the rocks and the intrinsic details of an unseen crust-mantle processes. The world wide data of U-Pb and Lu-Hf isotope systems in zircon reveal crustal evolution through geological history. Moreover, the U-Pb age pattern of zircons show distinct peaks attributed to preservation of crustal rocks or mountain building during supercontinent assembly. The histogram of continental crust preservation shows that nearly one-third of continental crust was formed during the Archean, almost 20% was formed during Paleoproterozoic and 14% in last 400 Ma.

DNA Elasticity from Short DNA to Nucleosomal DNA

Active biological processes like transcription, replication, recombination, DNA repair, and DNA packaging encounter bent DNA. Machineries associated with these processes interact with the DNA at short length (<100 base pair) scale. Thus, the study of elasticity of DNA at such length scale is very important. We use fully atomistic molecular dynamics (MD) simulations along with various theoretical methods to determine elastic properties of dsDNA of different lengths and base sequences. We also study DNA elasticity in nucleosome core particle (NCP) both in the presence and the absence of salt. We determine stretch modulus and persistence length of short dsDNA and nucleosomal DNA from contour length distribution and bend angle distribution, respectively. For short dsDNA, we find that stretch modulus increases with ionic strength while persistence length decreases. Calculated values of stretch modulus and persistence length for DNA are in quantitative agreement with available experimental data. The trend is opposite for NCP DNA. We find that the presence of histone core makes the DNA stiffer and thus making the persistence length 3-4 times higher than the bare DNA. Similarly, we also find an increase in the stretch modulus for the NCP DNA. Our study for the first time reports the elastic properties of DNA when it is wrapped around the histone core in NCP. We further show that the WLC model is inadequate to describe DNA elasticity at short length scale. Our results provide a deeper understanding of DNA mechanics and the methods are applicable to most protein-DNA complexes.

A Perspective on Computer Assisted Assessment Techniques for Short Free-Text Answers

Computer Assisted Assessment (CAA) has been existing for several years now. While some forms of CAA do not require sophisticated text understanding (e.g., multiple choice questions), there are also student answers that consist of free text and require analysis of text in the answer. Research towards the latter till date has concentrated on two main sub-tasks: (i) grading of essays, which is done mainly by checking the style, correctness of grammar, and coherence of the essay and (ii) assessment of short free-text answers. In this paper, we present a structured view of relevant research in automated assessment techniques for short free-text answers. We review papers spanning the last 15 years of research with emphasis on recent papers. Our main objectives are two folds. First we present the survey in a structured way by segregating information on dataset, problem formulation, techniques, and evaluation measures. Second we present a discussion on some of the potential future directions in this domain which we hope would be helpful for researchers.

Short-Time Beta Relaxation in Glass-Forming Liquids Is Cooperative in Nature

Temporal relaxation of density fluctuations in supercooled liquids near the glass transition occurs in multiple steps. Using molecular dynamics simulations for three model glass-forming liquids, we show that the short-time beta relaxation is cooperative in nature. Using finite-size scaling analysis, we extract a growing length scale associated with beta relaxation from the observed dependence of the beta relaxation time on the system size. We find, in qualitative agreement with the prediction of the inhomogeneous mode coupling theory, that the temperature dependence of this length scale is the same as that of the length scale that describes the spatial heterogeneity of local dynamics in the long-time alpha-relaxation regime.

Combustion and heat transfer characteristics of nanofluid fuel droplets: A short review

With the pressing need to meet an ever-increasing energy demand, the combustion systems utilizing fossil fuels have been the major contributors to carbon footprint. As the combustion of conventional energy resources continue to produce significant Green House gas (GHG) emissions, there is a strong emphasis to either upgrade or find an energy-efficient eco-friendly alternative to the traditional hydrocarbon fuels. With recent developments in nanotechnology, the ability to manufacture materials with custom tailored properties at nanoscale has led to the discovery of a new class of high energy density fuels containing reactive metallic nanoparticles (NPs). Due to the high reactive interfacial area and enhanced thermal and mass transport properties of nanomaterials, the high heat of formation of these metallic fuels can now be released rapidly, thereby saving on specific fuel consumption and hence reducing GHG emissions. In order to examine the efficacy of nanofuels in energetic formulations, it is imperative to first study their combustion characteristics at the droplet scale that form the fundamental building block for any combustion system utilizing liquid fuel spray. During combustion of such multiphase, multicomponent droplets, the phenomenon of diffusional entrapment of high volatility species leads to its explosive boiling (at the superheat limit) thereby leading to an intense internal pressure build-up. This pressure upsurge causes droplet fragmentation either in form of a microexplosion or droplet puffing followed by atomization (with formation of daughter droplets) featuring disruptive burning. Both these atomization modes represent primary mechanisms for extracting the high oxidation energies of metal NP additives by exposing them to the droplet flame (with daughter droplets acting as carriers of NPs). Atomization also serves as a natural mechanism for uniform distribution and mixing of the base fuel and enhancing burning rates (due to increase in specific surface area through formation of smaller daughter droplets). However, the efficiency of atomization depends on the thermo-physical properties of the base fuel, NP concentration and type. For instance, at dense loading NP agglomeration may lead to shell formation which would sustain the pressure upsurge and hence suppress atomization thereby reducing droplet gasification rate. Contrarily, the NPs may act as nucleation sites and aid boiling and the radiation absorption by NPs (from the flame) may lead to enhanced burning rates. Thus, nanoadditives may have opposing effects on the burning rate depending on the relative dominance of processes occurring at the droplet scale. The fundamental idea in this study is to: First, review different thermo-physical processes that occur globally at the droplet and sub-droplet scale such as surface regression, shell formation due to NP agglomeration, internal boiling, atomization/NP transport to flame zone and flame acoustic interaction that occur at the droplet scale and second, understand how their interaction changes as a function of droplet size, NP type, NP concentration and the type of base fuel. This understanding is crucial for obtaining phenomenological insights on the combustion behavior of novel nanofluid fuels that show great promise for becoming the next-generation fuels. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Stiffness behaviour of injection moulded short glass fibre/impact modifier/polypropylene hybrid composites

The stiffness behaviour of injection moulded short glass fibre/impact modifier/polypropylene hybrid composites has been investigated in this work by theoretical predictions and experiments. Predictions from the self-consistent method were found to be in good agreement with test results for the impact modifier/polypropylene blends. By taking into account of the fibre orientation distributions in the skin and core layers, the values of Young's modulus for the skin and core layers were predicted by employing Eshelby's equivalent inclusion method and the average induced strain approach. The prediction of the values of Young's modulus for the whole sample was obtained by applying the simple mixture theory of laminated composites to the predicted results for the skin and core layers. Good correlation between predicted and experimental Young's modulus values were found.

Modeling and mesoscopic damage constitutive relation of brittle short-fiber-reinforced composites

Aimed at brittle composites reinforced by randomly distributed short-fibers with a relatively large aspect ratio, stiffness modulus and strength, a mesoscopic material model was proposed. Based on the statistical description, damage mechanisms, damage-induced anisotropy, damage rate effect and stress redistribution, the constitutive relation were derived. By taking glass fiber reinforced polypropylene polymers as an example, the effect of initial orientation distribution of fibers, damage-induced anisotropy, and damage-rate effect on macro-behaviors of composites were quantitatively analyzed. The theoretical predictions compared favorably with the experimental results.

An analysis on overall crack-number-density of short-fatigue-cracks

The evolution of dispersed short-fatigue-cracks is analysed based on the equilibrium of crack-number-density (CND). By separating the mean value and the stochastic fluctuation of local CND, the equilibrium equation of overall CND is derived. Comparing with the mean-field equilibrium equation, the equilibrium equation of overall CND has different forms in the expression of crack-nucleation-rate or crack-growth-rate. The simulation results are compared with experimental measurements showing the stochastic analyses provide consistent tendency with experiments. The discrepancy in simulation results between overall CND and mean-field CND is discussed.

An analysis of collective damage for short fatigue cracks based on equilibrium of crack numerical density

Collective damage of short fatigue cracks was analyzed in the light of equilibrium of crack numerical density. With the estimation of crack growth rate and crack nucleation rate, the solution of the equilibrium equation was studied to reveal the distinct feature of saturation distribution for crack numerical density. The critical time that characterized the transition of short and long-crack regimes was estimated, in which the influences of grain size and grain-boundary obstacle effect were investigated. Furthermore, the total number of cracks and the first order of damage moment were discussed.

Simulations and Experiments of Stochastic Characteristics for Collective Short Fatigue Cracks in Steels

Stochastic characteristics prevail in the process of short fatigue crack progression. This paper presents a method taking into account the balance of crack number density to describe the stochastic behaviour of short crack collective evolution. The results from the simulation illustrate the stochastic development of short cracks. The experiments on two types of steels show the random distribution for collective short cracks with the number of cracks and the maximum crack length as a function of different locations on specimen surface. The experiments also give the variation of total number of short cracks with fatigue cycles. The test results are consistent with numerical simulations.