793 resultados para sensemaking of risk


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‘Grooming’ and the Sexual Abuse of Children: Institutional, Internet and Familial Dimensions critically examines the official and popular discourses on grooming, predominantly framed within the context of on-line sexual exploitation and abuse committed by strangers, and institutional child abuse committed by those in positions of trust.

Set against the broader theoretical framework of risk, security and governance, this book argues that due to the difficulties of drawing clear boundaries between innocuous and harmful motivations towards children, pre-emptive risk-based criminal law and policy are inherently limited in preventing, targeting and criminalising ‘grooming’ behaviour prior to the manifestation of actual harm. Through examination of grooming against the complexities of the onset of sexual offending against children and its actual role in this process, the author broadens existing discourses by providing a fuller, more nuanced conceptualisation of grooming, including its role in intra-familial and extra-familial contexts. There is also timely discussion of new and emerging forms of grooming, such as ‘street’ or ‘localised’ grooming, as typified by recent cases in Rochdale and Oldham, and ‘peer-to-peer’ grooming.

The first inter-disciplinary, thematic, and empirical investigation of grooming in a multi-jurisdictional context, ‘Grooming’ and the Sexual Abuse of Children draws on extensive empirical research in the form of over fifty interviews with professionals, working in the fields of sex offender risk assessment, management or treatment, as well as child protection or victim support in the four jurisdictions of the United Kingdom and the Republic of Ireland. Impeccably presented and meticulously considered, this book will be of interest to criminologists and those working and studying in the field of policing and criminal justice studies, as well as policy makers and practitioners in the areas of child protection and sex offender management.

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Background: Interest in the prevention of osteoporosis is increasing and thus there is a need for an acceptable osteoporosis prevention programme in general practice. AIM. A study was undertaken to identify a cohort of middle-aged women attending a general practice who would be eligible for a longitudinal study looking at bone mineral density, osteoporosis and the effectiveness of hormone replacement therapy. This study aimed to describe the relationship between medical and lifestyle risk factors for osteoporosis and the initial bone density measurements in this group of women. METHOD. A health visitor administered a questionnaire to women aged between 48 and 52 years registered with a Belfast general practice. The main outcome measures were menopausal status, presence of medical and lifestyle risk factors and bone mineral density measurements. RESULTS. A total of 358 women our of 472 (76%) took part in the study which was conducted in 1991 and 1992. A highly significant difference was found between the mean bone mineral density of premenopausal, menopausal and postmenopausal women within the narrow study age range, postmenopausal women having the lowest bone mineral density. A significant relationship was found between body mass index and bone mineral density, a greater bone mineral density being found among women with a higher body mass index. Risk factors such as smoking and sedentary lifestyle were common (reported by approximately one third of respondents) but a poor relationship was found between these two and all the other risk factors and bone mineral density in this age group. CONCLUSION. Risk of osteoporosis cannot be identified by the presence of risk factors in women aged between 48 and 52 years. In terms of a current prevention strategy for general practice it would be better to take a population-based approach except for those women known to be at high risk of osteoporosis: women with early menopause or those who have had an oophorectomy.

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Coronary heart disease is the commonest cause of death in Northern Ireland, but few data exist on the incidence of risk factors in young adult students and non-students.

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This paper demonstrates a potential application for latent semantic analysis and similar techniques in visualising the differences between two levels of knowledge about a risk issue. The HIV/AIDS risk issue will be examined and the semantic clusters of key words in a technical corpora derived from specific literature about HIV/AIDS will be compared with the semantic clusters of those in more general corpora. It is hoped that these comparisons will create a fast and efficient complementary approach to the articulation of mental models of risk issues that could be used to target possible inconsistencies between expert and lay mental models.

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Are older adults risk seeking or risk averse? Answering this question might depend on both the task used and the analysis performed. By modeling responses to the Balloon Analogue Risk Task (BART), our results illustrate the value of modeling as compared to relying on common analysis techniques. While analysis of overall measures suggested initially that older and younger adults do not differ in their risky decisions, our modeling results indicated that younger adults were at first more willing to take greater risks. Furthermore, older adults may be more cautious when their decision making is based on initial perceptions of risk, rather than learning following some experience with a task.

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Risk is defined as a situation involving exposure to danger. Risk assessment by nature characterises the probability of a negative event occurring and quantifies the consequences of such an event. Risk assessment is increasingly being used in the field of animal welfare as a means of drawing comparisons between multiple welfare problems within and between species and identifying those that should be prioritised by policy-makers, either because they affect a large proportion of the population or because they have particularly severe consequences for those affected. The assessment of risk is typically based on three fundamental factors: intensity of consequences, duration affected by consequences and prevalence. However, it has been recognised that these factors alone do not give a complete picture of a hazard and its associated consequences. Rather, to get a complete picture, it is important to also consider information about the hazard itself: probability of exposure to the hazard and duration of exposure to the hazard. The method has been applied to a variety of farmed species (eg poultry, dairy cows, farmed fish), investigating housing, husbandry and slaughter procedures, as well as companion animals, where it has been used to compare inherited defects in pedigree dogs and horses. To what extent can we trust current risk assessment methods to get the priorities straight? How should we interpret the results produced by such assessments? Here, the potential difficulties and pitfalls of the welfare risk assessment method will be discussed: (i) the assumption that welfare hazards are independent; (ii) the problem of quantifying the model parameters; and (iii) assessing and incorporating variability and uncertainty into welfare risk assessments. © 2012 Universities Federation for Animal Welfare.

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Esophageal adenocarcinoma develops on a background of Barrett's esophagus. A number of risk factors have been linked to both conditions, including gastroesophageal reflux and smoking. However, the molecular mechanisms by which these factors influence disease progression remain unclear. One possibility is that risk factors generate promutagenic DNA damage in the esophagus. The comet assay was used to measure DNA damage in esophageal (Barrett's and squamous) and gastric mucosa of Barrett's patients with (n = 24) or without (n = 50) associated adenocarcinoma or high-grade dysplasia in comparison with control patients (squamous mucosa) without Barrett's esophagus (n = 64). Patients completed a questionnaire detailing exposure to some of the known risk factors for Barrett's esophagus and adenocarcinoma. In Barrett's esophagus patients, DNA damage was higher in Barrett's mucosa compared with normal esophageal and gastric mucosa (P < 0.001). In addition, the highest quartile of DNA damage in Barrett's mucosa was associated with an increased risk (odds ratio, 9.4; 95% confidence interval, 1.1-83.4; P = 0.044) of developing adenocarcinoma or high-grade dysplasia compared with DNA damage levels in the lowest quartile. Smoking was associated with higher DNA damage in squamous epithelium in all patient groups (P < 0.01) and in Barrett's mucosa (P < 0.05) in Barrett's esophagus patients only. In controls only, current reflux was associated with higher DNA damage, whereas anti-inflammatory drug use resulted in lower levels. Collectively, these data imply a genotoxic insult to the premalignaint Barrett's mucosa that may explain the genetic instability in this tissue and the progression to adenocarcinoma. There is an indication for a role for smoking in inducing DNA damage in esophageal mucosa but an understanding of the role of reflux requires further investigation.

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The experiences of psychosis and psychiatric admission have the potential to act as events precipitating posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms. Known risk factors for the development of PTSD symptoms in adults were identified. These included childhood trauma, current psychiatric symptoms, perceived coercion, and relationships with mental health service providers. These factors were analyzed to determine if they were important in the development of PTSD symptoms in response to psychosis and admission. We used a cross-sectional design with a sample of 47 participants recruited from a service in Northern Ireland who had experienced psychosis and been discharged from inpatient treatment within 12 months of data collection. The main outcome measure was the impact of events scale-revised. Data was subject to correlation analyses. A cut-off point of r = +/- 0.25 was used to select variables for inclusion in hierarchical regression analyses. Forty-five percent and 31% of the sample had moderate to severe PTSD symptoms related to psychosis and admission, respectively. The majority of participants identified positive symptoms and the first admission as the most distressing aspects of psychosis and admission. Childhood sexual and physical traumas were significant predictors of some PTSD symptoms. Strong association was found between current affective symptoms and PTSD symptoms. A reduced sense of availability of mental health service providers was also associated with PTSD symptoms and depression. Awareness of risk factors for the development of PTSD symptoms in response to admission and psychosis raises important issues for services and has implications for interventions provided.

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This study examines the influence of social ecological risks within the domains of parenting, family environment, and community in the prediction of educational outcomes for 770 adolescents (49% boys, 51% girls, M = 13.6 years, SD = 2.0) living in a setting of protracted political conflict, specifically working class areas of Belfast, Northern Ireland. Controlling for religious community, age, and gender, youths' lower academic achievement was associated with family environments characterized by high conflict and low cohesion. School behaviour problems were related to greater exposure to community violence, or sectarian and nonsectarian antisocial behaviour. Youths' expectations about educational attainment were undermined by conflict in the family environment and antisocial behaviour in the community, as well as parenting low in warmth and behavioural control. Findings underscore the importance of considering family and community contributions to youths' educational outcomes. Suggestions regarding targeted interventions toward promoting resilience are discussed, such as assessing both child and family functioning, developing multidimensional interventions for parents, and building community partnerships, among others.

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It is self-evident that we live in the age of inquiry where the negative impact of risk has been examined through numerous formal processes. In the wake of such scrutiny, there have been repeated recommendations for better training of the professionals charged with safeguarding the welfare of vulnerable individuals. Yet there has been very little examination of how student social workers, in particular, evaluate this training. This exploratory study responded to this gap through a mixed-methods design centring on the views of qualifying and post-qualifying social work students attending courses within two regional universities in Northern Ireland. The study found that, in the main, the cohorts responded favourably to certain aspects of the curriculum and how they were delivered. That said, the emotive nature of the case review and inquiry reports was inadequately addressed in the classroom and was not processed afterwards through a psycho-social framework. In effect, students were often left with residual anxieties that potentially hampered learning. On the basis of the findings, the study calls for further research into this highly significant area of professional competence.

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Obesity has been linked with elevated levels of C-reactive protein (CRP), and both have been associated with increased risk of mortality and cardiovascular disease (CVD). Previous studies have used a single ‘baseline’ measurement and such analyses cannot account for possible changes in these which may lead to a biased estimation of risk. Using four cohorts from CHANCES which had repeated measures in participants 50 years and older, multivariate time-dependent Cox proportional hazards was used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95 % confidence intervals (CI) to examine the relationship between body mass index (BMI) and CRP with all-cause mortality and CVD. Being overweight (≥25–<30 kg/m2) or moderately obese (≥30–<35) tended to be associated with a lower risk of mortality compared to normal (≥18.5–<25): ESTHER, HR (95 % CI) 0.69 (0.58–0.82) and 0.78 (0.63–0.97); Rotterdam, 0.86 (0.79–0.94) and 0.80 (0.72–0.89). A similar relationship was found, but only for overweight in Glostrup, HR (95 % CI) 0.88 (0.76–1.02); and moderately obese in Tromsø, HR (95 % CI) 0.79 (0.62–1.01). Associations were not evident between repeated measures of BMI and CVD. Conversely, increasing CRP concentrations, measured on more than one occasion, were associated with an increasing risk of mortality and CVD. Being overweight or moderately obese is associated with a lower risk of mortality, while CRP, independent of BMI, is positively associated with mortality and CVD risk. If inflammation links CRP and BMI, they may participate in distinct/independent pathways. Accounting for independent changes in risk factors over time may be crucial for unveiling their effects on mortality and disease morbidity.

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Most child maltreatment occurs within the context of high risk families. There are ethical, economic and ecological reasons why physical abuse in such families should be a major concern. Physical abuse is a significant issue throughout the UK. Yet, while neglect and other forms of abuse are receiving focused attention, physical abuse may languish under the misconceptions that it is no longer a problem, is addressed elsewhere, or is just too overwhelming an issue.
The physical abuse of children can involve regular, violent treatment at the hands of parents or carers over a number of years. Its physical effects may last for days and may result in actual physical injury. It is not accidental. Although physical abuse can occur in any family, it is prevalent in particular sectors of society, where families may be vulnerable to a combination of complex risk factors such as domestic abuse, alcohol and drug (mis)use, and mental health issues. These factors are present in 34% of Serious Case Reviews (SCRs).
The authors provide an increased understanding of risk, analysis, impact, learning and the current landscape of service delivery in relation to the physical abuse of children living in high risk families for professional, postgraduate and policy-making audiences.

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Background

Although life expectancy continues to increase in the Republic of Ireland (ROI) and Northern Ireland (NI), coronary heart disease (CHD) remains a leading cause of death and disability in older adults. Some, but not all, of the socioeconomic inequality in cardiovascular disability can be explained by a social gradient in conventional risk factors. The aims of the research were to assess CHD-related disability, and to establish the prevalence and population attributable fractions (PAFs) of risk factors for CHD-related disability across gender and socioeconomic groups in older adults in NI and ROI.

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Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) are a group of flame retardants that have been in use since the 1970s. They are included in the list of hazardous substances known as persistent organic pollutants (POPs) because they are extremely hazardous to the environment and human health. PBDEs have been extensively used in industry and manufacturing in Taiwan, thus its citizens are at high risk of exposure to these chemicals.
An assessment of the environmental fate of these compounds in the Zhuoshui river and Changhua County regions of western Taiwan, and also including the adjacent area of the Taiwan Strait, was conducted for three high risk congeners, BDE-47, -99 and -209, to obtain information regarding the partitioning, advection, transfer and long range transport potential of the PBDEs in order to identify the level of risk posed by the pollutants in this region.
The results indicate that large amounts of PBDEs presently reside in all model compartments – air, soil, water, and sediment – with particularly high levels found in air and especially in sediment. The high levels found in sediment, particularly for BDE-209, are significant, since there is the threat of these pollutants entering the food chain, either directly through benthic feeding, or through resuspension and subsequent feeding in the pelagic region of the water column which is a distinct possibility in the strong currents found within the Taiwan Strait. Another important result is that a substantial portion of emissions leave the model domain directly through advection, particularly for BDE-47 (58%) and BDE-209 (75%), thus posing a risk to adjacent communities.
Model results were generally in reasonable agreement with available measured concentrations. In air, model concentrations are in reasonably good agreement with available measured values. For both BDE-47 and -99, model concentrations are a factor of 2-3 higher and BDE-209 within the range of measured values. In soil, model results are somewhat less than measured values. In sediment, model results are at the high end of measured values.