Denying the foreseeability of an event as a means of self-protection. The Impact of Self-Threatening Outcome Information on the Strength of the Hindsight Bias

The hindsight bias represents the tendency of people to falsely believe that they would have predicted the outcome of an event, once the outcome is known. Two experiments will be presented that show a reduction or even reversal of the hindsight bias when the outcome information is self-threatening for the participants. Participants read a report of an interaction between a man and a woman that ended with different outcomes: The woman was raped vs. the woman was not raped vs. no outcome information was given. Results of the first experiment indicated that especially female participants, who did not accept rape myths, showed a reversed hindsight bias, when they received the rape outcome information. The more threatening the rape outcome had been, the lower was their estimated likelihood of rape. Results of the second experiment confirmed those of the first. Female participants, who did not accept rape myths and perceived themselves highly similar to the victim, showed a strong reversed hindsight bias, when threatened by the rape outcome, whereas female participants, who did believe in rape myth and were not similar to the victim, showed a classical hindsight bias. These effects were interpreted in terms of self-serving or in-group serving functions of the hindsight bias: Participants deny the foreseeability of a self-threatening outcome as a means of self-protection even if they are not personally affected by the negative information, but a member of their group.

Exculpating victims and the reversal of hindsight bias

This experiment examines the role of the hindsight bias and of motivational forces such as the motive to believe in a just world as possible causes of the derogation of victims effect in the context of rape. The hindsight bias is the tendency of people to falsely believe that they would have predicted the outcome of an event once the outcome is known. Participants read descriptions of an interaction between a man and a woman that ended with one of four possible outcomes: The woman was raped with very severe consequences for her future life vs. rape with only minor consequences for her future life vs. no rape (assailant was forced to retreat by the strong defense of the victim) vs. no outcome information. To test motivational predictions the hindsight bias and the derogation effect were analyzed as a consequence of the sex of participants, the seriousness of the consequences of the rape, the belief in a just world and the acceptance of rape myths. Results supported the assumption that derogation effects are at least partly driven by hindsight bias and that motivational processes work via the hindsight bias. However, in this study we did not find a classical hindsight bias but a reversed hindsight bias: Especially female participants in the severe consequences of rape condition and those participants who did not accept rape myths rated the likelihood of rape in the rape outcome condition as smaller than participants in the no outcome information control group. They also derogated the victim less than participants in the no information control group. These effects were interpreted in terms of self-serving or in-group serving functions of the hindsight bias. Finally no support was found for the assumption that derogation effects are driven by the motive to believe in a just world.

The Hydroxyl Side Chain of a Highly Conserved Serine Residue Is Required for Cation Selectivity and Substrate Transport in the Glial Glutamate Transporter GLT-1/SLC1A2

Glutamate transporters maintain synaptic concentration of the excitatory neurotransmitter below neurotoxic levels. Their transport cycle consists of cotransport of glutamate with three sodium ions and one proton, followed by countertransport of potassium. Structural studies proposed that a highly conserved serine located in the binding pocket of the homologous GltPh coordinates l-aspartate as well as the sodium ion Na1. To experimentally validate these findings, we generated and characterized several mutants of the corresponding serine residue, Ser-364, of human glutamate transporter SLC1A2 (solute carrier family 1 member 2), also known as glutamate transporter GLT-1 and excitatory amino acid transporter EAAT2. S364T, S364A, S364C, S364N, and S364D were expressed in HEK cells and Xenopus laevis oocytes to measure radioactive substrate transport and transport currents, respectively. All mutants exhibited similar plasma membrane expression when compared with WT SLC1A2, but substitutions of serine by aspartate or asparagine completely abolished substrate transport. On the other hand, the threonine mutant, which is a more conservative mutation, exhibited similar substrate selectivity, substrate and sodium affinities as WT but a lower selectivity for Na(+) over Li(+). S364A and S364C exhibited drastically reduced affinities for each substrate and enhanced selectivity for l-aspartate over d-aspartate and l-glutamate, and lost their selectivity for Na(+) over Li(+). Furthermore, we extended the analysis of our experimental observations using molecular dynamics simulations. Altogether, our findings confirm a pivotal role of the serine 364, and more precisely its hydroxyl group, in coupling sodium and substrate fluxes.

Discovery of Novel Adenosine Receptor Agonists That Exhibit Subtype Selectivity

A series of N6-bicyclic and N6-(2-hydroxy)cyclopentyl derivatives of adenosine were synthesized as novel A1R agonists and their A1R/A2R selectivity assessed using a simple yeast screening platform. We observed that the most selective, high potency ligands were achieved through N6-adamantyl substitution in combination with 5′-N-ethylcarboxamido or 5′-hydroxymethyl groups. In addition, we determined that 5′-(2-fluoro)thiophenyl derivatives all failed to generate a signaling response despite showing an interaction with the A1R. Some selected compounds were also tested on A1R and A3R in mammalian cells revealing that four of them are entirely A1R-selective agonists. By using in silico homology modeling and ligand docking, we provide insight into their mechanisms of recognition and activation of the A1R. We believe that given the broad tissue distribution, but contrasting signaling profiles, of adenosine receptor subtypes, these compounds might have therapeutic potential.

Prior knowledge of the clinical picture does not introduce bias in the histopathologic diagnosis of melanocytic skin lesions

A common debate among dermatopathologists is that prior knowledge of the clinical picture of melanocytic skin neoplasms may introduce a potential bias in the histopathologic examination. Histologic slides from 99 melanocytic skin neoplasms were circulated among 10 clinical dermatologists, all of them formally trained and board-certified dermatopathologists: 5 dermatopathologists had clinical images available after a 'blind' examination (Group 1); the other 5 had clinical images available before microscopic examination (Group 2). Data from the two groups were compared regarding 'consensus' (a diagnosis in agreement by ≥4 dermatopathologists/group), chance-corrected interobserver agreement (Fleiss' k) and level of diagnostic confidence (LDC: a 1-5 arbitrary scale indicating 'increasing reliability' of any given diagnosis). Compared with Group 1 dermatopathologists, Group 2 achieved a lower number of consensus (84 vs. 90) but a higher k value (0.74 vs. 0.69) and a greater mean LDC value (4.57 vs. 4.32). The same consensus was achieved by the two groups in 81/99 cases. Spitzoid neoplasms were most frequently controversial for both groups. The histopathologic interpretation of melanocytic neoplasms seems to be not biased by the knowledge of the clinical picture before histopathologic examination.

An Assessment of the Risk of Bias in Randomized Controlled Trial Reports Published in Prosthodontic and Implant Dentistry Journals

PURPOSE The objective of this study was to assess the risk of bias of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) published in prosthodontic and implant dentistry journals. MATERIALS AND METHODS The last 30 issues of 9 journals in the field of prosthodontic and implant dentistry (Clinical Implant Dentistry and Related Research, Clinical Oral Implants Research, Implant Dentistry, International Journal of Oral & Maxillofacial Implants, International Journal of Periodontics and Restorative Dentistry, International Journal of Prosthodontics, Journal of Dentistry, Journal of Oral Rehabilitation, and Journal of Prosthetic Dentistry) were hand-searched for RCTs. Risk of bias was assessed using the Cochrane Collaboration's risk of bias tool and analyzed descriptively. RESULTS From the 3,667 articles screened, a total of 147 RCTs were identified and included. The number of published RCTs increased with time. The overall distribution of a high risk of bias assessment varied across the domains of the Cochrane risk of bias tool: 8% for random sequence generation, 18% for allocation concealment, 41% for masking, 47% for blinding of outcome assessment, 7% for incomplete outcome data, 12% for selective reporting, and 41% for other biases. CONCLUSION The distribution of high risk of bias for RCTs published in the selected prosthodontic and implant dentistry journals varied among journals and ranged from 8% to 47%, which can be considered as substantial.

Internet-based interpretation bias modification for social anxiety: A pilot study

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: The biased interpretation of ambiguous social situations is considered a maintaining factor of Social Anxiety Disorder (SAD). Studies on the modification of interpretation bias have shown promising results in laboratory settings. The present study aims at pilot-testing an Internet-based training that targets interpretation and judgmental bias. METHOD: Thirty-nine individuals meeting diagnostic criteria for SAD participated in an 8-week, unguided program. Participants were presented with ambiguous social situations, were asked to choose between neutral, positive, and negative interpretations, and were required to evaluate costs of potential negative outcomes. Participants received elaborate automated feedback on their interpretations and judgments. RESULTS: There was a pre-to-post-reduction of the targeted cognitive processing biases (d = 0.57-0.77) and of social anxiety symptoms (d = 0.87). Furthermore, results showed changes in depression and general psychopathology (d = 0.47-0.75). Decreases in cognitive biases and symptom changes did not correlate. The results held stable accounting for drop-outs (26%) and over a 6-week follow-up period. Forty-five percent of the completer sample showed clinical significant change and almost half of the participants (48%) no longer met diagnostic criteria for SAD. LIMITATIONS: As the study lacks a control group, results lend only preliminary support to the efficacy of the intervention. Furthermore, the mechanism of change remained unclear. CONCLUSION: First results promise a beneficial effect of the program for SAD patients. The treatment proved to be feasible and acceptable. Future research should evaluate the intervention in a randomized-controlled setting.

A Validation Study on Voter Turnout Bias in Switzerland

Surveys on voting behavior typically overestimate turnout rates substantially. To disentangle different sources of bias - coverage error, nonresponse bias, and overreporting - we conducted a validation study in which respondents' self-reported voting behavior was compared to administrative voting records (N = 2000). Our results show that all three sources of error inflate the survey estimate of the turnout rate and also bias estimates from political participation models, although coverage error is only moderate compared to the more pronounced biases due to nonresponse and overreporting. Furthermore, results from a wording experiment do not provide evidence that revised wording reduces measurement bias.

Effects of stereotypic behaviour and chronic mild stress on judgement bias in laboratory mice

Cognitive processes are influenced by underlying affective states, and tests of cognitive bias have recently been developed to assess the valence of affective states in animals. These tests are based on the fact that individuals in a negative affective state interpret ambiguous stimuli more pessimistically than individuals in a more positive state. Using two strains of mice we explored whether unpredictable chronic mild stress (UCMS) can induce a negative judgement bias and whether variation in the expression of stereotypic behaviour is associated with variation in judgement bias. Sixteen female CD-1 and 16 female C57BL/6 mice were trained on a tactile conditional discrimination test with grade of sandpaper as a cue for differential food rewards. Once they had learned the discrimination, half of the mice were subjected to UCMS for three weeks to induce a negative affective state. Although UCMS induced a reduced preference for the higher value reward in the judgement bias test, it did not affect saccharine preference or hypothalamic–pituitary–adrenal (HPA) activity. However, UCMS affected responses to ambiguous (intermediate) cues in the judgement bias test. While control mice showed a graded response to ambiguous cues, UCMS mice of both strains did not discriminate between ambiguous cues and tended to show shorter latencies to the ambiguous cues and the negative reference cue. UCMS also increased bar-mouthing in CD-1, but not in C57BL/6 mice. Furthermore, mice with higher levels of stereotypic behaviour made more optimistic choices in the judgement bias test. However, no such relationship was found for stereotypic bar-mouthing, highlighting the importance of investigating different types of stereotypic behaviour separately.

An Exploration Based Cognitive Bias Test for Mice: Effects of Handling Method and Stereotypic Behaviour

Behavioural tests to assess affective states are widely used in human research and have recently been extended to animals. These tests assume that affective state influences cognitive processing, and that animals in a negative affective state interpret ambiguous information as expecting a negative outcome (displaying a negative cognitive bias). Most of these tests however, require long discrimination training. The aim of the study was to validate an exploration based cognitive bias test, using two different handling methods, as previous studies have shown that standard tail handling of mice increases physiological and behavioural measures of anxiety compared to cupped handling. Therefore, we hypothesised that tail handled mice would display a negative cognitive bias. We handled 28 female CD-1 mice for 16 weeks using either tail handling or cupped handling. The mice were then trained in an eight arm radial maze, where two adjacent arms predicted a positive outcome (darkness and food), while the two opposite arms predicted a negative outcome (no food, white noise and light). After six days of training, the mice were also given access to the four previously unavailable intermediate ambiguous arms of the radial maze and tested for cognitive bias. We were unable to validate this test, as mice from both handling groups displayed a similar pattern of exploration. Furthermore, we examined whether maze exploration is affected by the expression of stereotypic behaviour in the home cage. Mice with higher levels of stereotypic behaviour spent more time in positive arms and avoided ambiguous arms, displaying a negative cognitive bias. While this test needs further validation, our results indicate that it may allow the assessment of affective state in mice with minimal training— a major confound in current cognitive bias paradigms.