Modeling the risk of malaria for travelers to areas with stable malaria transmission

Background: Malaria is an important threat to travelers visiting endemic regions. The risk of acquiring malaria is complex and a number of factors including transmission intensity, duration of exposure, season of the year and use of chemoprophylaxis have to be taken into account estimating risk. Materials and methods: A mathematical model was developed to estimate the risk of non-immune individual acquiring falciparum malaria when traveling to the Amazon region of Brazil. The risk of malaria infection to travelers was calculated as a function of duration of exposure and season of arrival. Results: The results suggest significant variation of risk for non-immune travelers depending on arrival season, duration of the visit and transmission intensity. The calculated risk for visitors staying longer than 4 months during peak transmission was 0.5% per visit. Conclusions: Risk estimates based on mathematical modeling based on accurate data can be a valuable tool in assessing risk/benefits and cost/benefits when deciding on the value of interventions for travelers to malaria endemic regions.

The International Collaboration on Air Pollution and Pregnancy Outcomes: Initial Results

BACKGROUND: The findings of prior studies of air pollution effects on adverse birth outcomes are difficult to synthesize because of differences in study design. OBJECTIVES: The International Collaboration on Air Pollution and Pregnancy Outcomes was formed to understand how differences in research methods contribute to variations in findings. We initiated a feasibility study to a) assess the ability of geographically diverse research groups to analyze their data sets using a common protocol and b) perform location-specific analyses of air pollution effects on birth weight using a standardized statistical approach. METHODS: Fourteen research groups from nine countries participated. We developed a protocol to estimate odds ratios (ORs) for the association between particulate matter <= 10 mu m in aerodynamic diameter (PM(10)) and low birth weight (LBW) among term births, adjusted first for socioeconomic status (SES) and second for additional location-specific variables. RESULTS: Among locations with data for the PM(10) analysis, ORs estimating the relative risk of term LBW associated with a 10-mu g/m(3) increase in average PM(10) concentration during pregnancy, adjusted for SES, ranged from 0.63 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.30-1.35] for the Netherlands to 1.15 (95% CI, 0.61-2.18) for Vancouver, with six research groups reporting statistically significant adverse associations. We found evidence of statistically significant heterogeneity in estimated effects among locations. CONCLUSIONS: Variability in PM(10)-LBW relationships among study locations remained despite use of a common statistical approach. A more detailed meta-analysis and use of more complex protocols for future analysis may uncover reasons for heterogeneity across locations. However, our findings confirm the potential for a diverse group of researchers to analyze their data in a standardized way to improve understanding of air pollution effects on birth outcomes.

Relatedness and HLA-DRB1 typing may discriminate the magnitude of the genetic susceptibility to tuberculosis using a household contact model

Background Tuberculosis clusters in families may be due to increased household exposure, shared genetic factors, or both. Household contact studies are useful to control exposure because socioeconomic and environmental conditions are similar to all subjects, allowing the evaluation of the contribution of relatedness to disease development. Methods In this study, the familial aggregation of tuberculosis using relatedness and a specific inherited marker (HLA-DRB1) was evaluated. Fifty families, which had at least two cases of tuberculosis diagnosed within the past 5 years, were selected from a cohort of tuberculosis carried out in Recife, Brazil. The first case diagnosed was considered to be a primary case. The secondary attack rate of tuberculosis in household contacts was estimated according to the degree of relatedness. The relative risk of having tuberculosis based on the degree of relatedness household and the population attributable fraction to relatedness were also estimated. HLA-DRB1 typing and attributable etiologic/preventive fractions were calculated among sick and healthy household contacts. Results Compared to unrelated contacts, the relative risk for tuberculosis adjusted for age was 1.38 (95% CI 0.86 to 2.21). Relatedness contributed 23% to the development of tuberculosis at the population levels. The HLA-DRB1*04 allele group (OR = 2.44; p =0.0324; etiologic fraction =0.15) was overrepresented and the DRB1*15 allele group (OR=0.48; p=0.0488; protective fraction=0.19) was underrepresented among household contacts exhibiting tuberculosis. The presence of DRB1 shared alleles between primary cases and their contacts was a risk factor for tuberculosis (p=0.0281). Conclusion This household contact model together with the utilisation of two genetic variables permitted the evaluation of genetic factors contributing towards tuberculosis development.

Predictive factors of non-deterioration of glucose tolerance following a 2-year behavioral intervention

Aim: To identify predictive factors associated with non-deterioration of glucose metabolism following a 2-year behavioral intervention in Japanese-Brazilians. Methods: 295 adults (59.7% women) without diabetes completed 2-year intervention program. Characteristics of those who maintained/improved glucose tolerance status (non-progressors) were compared with those who worsened (progressors) after the intervention. In logistic regression analysis, the condition of non-progressor was used as dependent variable. Results: Baseline characteristics of non-progressors (71.7%) and progressors were similar, except for the former being younger and having higher frequency of disturbed glucose tolerance and lower C-reactive protein (CRP). In logistic regression, non-deterioration of glucose metabolism was associated with disturbed glucose tolerance impaired fasting glucose or impaired glucose tolerance - (p < 0.001) and CRP levels <= 0.04 mg/dL (p = 0.01), adjusted for age and anthropometric variables. Changes in anthropometry and physical activity and achievement of weight and dietary goals after intervention were similar in subsets that worsened or not the glucose tolerance status. Conclusion: The whole sample presented a homogeneous behavior during the intervention. Lower CRP levels and diagnosis of glucose intolerance at baseline were predictors of non-deterioration of the glucose metabolism after a relatively simple intervention, independent of body adiposity.

HLA-G 14-bp Insertion/Deletion Polymorphism Is a Risk Factor for HTLV-1 Infection

About 95% of HTLV-1 infected patients remain asymptomatic throughout life, and the risk factors associated with the development of related diseases, such as HAM/TSP and ATL, are not fully understood. The human leukocyte antigen-G molecule (HLA-G), a nonclassical HLA class I molecule encoded by MHC, is expressed in several pathological conditions, including viral infection, and is related to immunosuppressive effects that allow the virus-infected cells to escape the antiviral defense of the host. The 14-bp insertion/deletion polymorphism of exon 8 HLA-G gene influences the stability of the transcripts and could be related to HTLV-1-infected cell protection and to the increase of proviral load. The present study analyzed by conventional PCR the 14-bp insertion/deletion polymorphism of exon 8 HLA-G gene in 150 unrelated healthy subjects, 82 HTLV-1 infected patients with symptoms (33 ATL and 49 HAM), and 56 asymptomatic HTLV-1 infected patients (HAC). In addition, the proviral load was determined by quantitative real-time PCR in all infected groups and correlated with 14-bp insertion/deletion genotypes. The heterozygote genotype frequencies were significantly higher in HAM, in the symptomatic group, and in infected patients compared to control (p < 0.05). The proviral load was higher in the symptomatic group than the HAC group (p < 0.0005). The comparison of proviral load and genotypes showed that -14-bp/-14-bp genotype had a higher proviral load than +14-bp/-14-bp and +14-bp/+14-bp genotypes. Although HLA-G 14-bp polymorphism does not appear to be associated

PSA and androgen-related gene (AR, CYP17, and CYP19) polymorphisms and the risk of adenocarcinoma at prostate biopsy

The aim of the present study was to examine the impact of polymorphisms in prostate-specific antigen (PSA) and androgen-related genes (AR, CYP17, and CYP19) on prostate cancer (PCa) risk in selected high-risk patients who underwent prostate biopsy. Blood samples and prostate tissues were obtained for DNA analysis. Single-nucleotide polymorphisms in the 50-untranslated regions (UTRs) of the PSA (substitution A > G at position -158) and CYP17 (substitution T > C at 50-UTR) genes were detected by polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-restriction fragment length polymorphism assays. The CAG and TTTA repeats in the AR and CYP19 genes, respectively, were genotyped by PCR-based GeneScan analysis. Patients with the GG genotype of the PSA gene had a higher risk of PCa than those with the AG or AA genotype (OR = 3.79, p = 0.00138). The AA genotype was associated with lower PSA levels (6.44 +/- 1.64 ng/mL) compared with genotypes having at least one G allele (10.44 +/- 10.06 ng/mL) (p = 0.0687, 95% CI - 0.3146 to 8.315, unpaired t-test). The multivariate analysis confirmed the association between PSA levels and PSA genotypes (AA vs. AG+GG; chi(2) = 0.0482) and CYP19 (short alleles homozygous vs. at least one long allele; chi(2) = 0.0110) genotypes. Genetic instability at the AR locus leading to somatic mosaicism was detected in one PCa patient by comparing the length of AR CAG repeats in matched peripheral blood and prostate biopsy cores. Taken together, these findings suggest that the PSA genotype should be a clinically relevant biomarker to predict the PCa risk.

Penicillin-resistant pneumococcus and risk of treatment failure in pneumonia

Objective: To determine whether the presence of in vitro penicillin-resistant Streptococcus pneumoniae increases the risk of clinical failure in children hospitalised with severe pneumonia and treated with penicillin/ampicillin. Design: Multicentre, prospective, observational study. Setting: 12 tertiary-care centres in three countries in Latin America. Patients: 240 children aged 3-59 months, hospitalised with severe pneumonia and known in vitro susceptibility of S pneumoniae. Intervention: Patients were treated with intravenous penicillin/ampicillin after collection of blood and, when possible, pleural fluid for culture. The minimal inhibitory concentration (MIC) test was used to determine penicillin susceptibility of the pneumococcal strains isolated. Children were continuously monitored until discharge. Main outcome measures: The primary outcome was treatment failure (using clinical criteria). Results: Overall treatment failure was 21%. After allowing for different potential confounders, there was no evidence of association between treatment failure and in vitro resistance of S pneumoniae to penicillin according to the Clinical Laboratory Standards Institute (CLSI)/National Committee for Clinical Laboratory Standards (NCCLS) interpretative standards ((adj)RR = 1.03; 95%Cl: 0.49-1.90 for resistant S pneumoniae). Conclusions: Intravenous penicillin/ampicillin remains the drug of choice for treating penicillin-resistant pneumococcal pneumonia in areas where the MIC does not exceed 2 mu g/ml.

Elevated Risk for HIV-1 Infection in Adolescents and Young Adults in Sao Paulo, Brazil

Background. Recent studies have sought to describe HIV infection and transmission characteristics around the world. Identification of early HIV-1 infection is essential to proper surveillance and description of regional transmission trends. In this study we compare people recently infected (RI) with HIV-1, as defined by Serologic Testing Algorithm for Recent HIV Seroconversion (STARHS), to those with chronic infection. Methodology/Principal Findings. Subjects were identified from 2002-2004 at four testing sites in Sao Paulo. Of 485 HIV-1-positive subjects, 57 (12%) were defined as RI. Of the participants, 165 (34.0%) were aware of their serostatus at the time of HIV-1 testing. This proportion was statistically larger (p<0.001) among the individuals without recent infection (n = 158, 95.8%) compared to 7 individuals (4.2%) with recently acquired HIV-1 infection. In the univariate analysis, RI was more frequent in,25 and >59 years-old age strata (p < 0.001). The majority of study participants were male (78.4%), 25 to 45 years-old (65.8%), white (63.2%), single (61.7%), with family income of four or more times the minimum wage (41.0%), but with an equally distributed educational level. Of those individuals infected with HIV-1, the predominant route of infection was sexual contact (89.4%), with both hetero (47.5%) and homosexual (34.5%) exposure. Regarding sexual activity in these individuals, 43.9% reported possible HIV-1 exposure through a seropositive partner, and 49.4% reported multiple partners, with 47% having 2 to 10 partners and 37.4% 11 or more; 53.4% of infected individuals reported condom use sometimes; 34.2% reported non-injecting, recreational drug use and 23.6% were reactive for syphilis by VDRL. Subjects younger than 25 years of age were most vulnerable according to the multivariate analysis. Conclusions/Significance. In this study, we evaluated RI individuals and discovered that HIV-1 has been spreading among younger individuals in Sao Paulo and preventive approaches should, therefore, target this age stratum.

Trends in dermatomyositis- and polymyositis-related mortality in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil, 1985-2007: multiple cause-of-death analysis

Background: Dermatomyositis (DM) and polymyositis (PM) are rare systemic autoimmune rheumatic diseases with high fatality rates. There have been few population-based mortality studies of dermatomyositis and polymyositis in the world, and none have been conducted in Brazil. The objective of the present study was to employ multiple-cause of-death methodology in the analysis of trends in mortality related to dermatomyositis and polymyositis in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil, between 1985 and 2007. Methods: We analyzed mortality data from the Sao Paulo State Data Analysis System, selecting all death certificates on which DM or PM was listed as a cause of death. The variables sex, age and underlying, associated or total mentions of causes of death were studied using mortality rates, proportions and historical trends. Statistical analysis were performed by chi-square and H Kruskal-Wallis tests, variance analysis and linear regression. A p value less than 0.05 was regarded as significant. Results: Over a 23-year period, there were 318 DM-related deaths and 316 PM-related deaths. Overall, DM/PM was designated as an underlying cause in 55.2% and as an associated cause in 44.8%; among 634 total deaths females accounted for 71.5%. During the study period, age-and gender-adjusted DM mortality rates did not change significantly, although PM as an underlying cause and total mentions of PM trended lower (p < 0.05). The mean ages at death were 47.76 +/- 20.81 years for DM and 54.24 +/- 17.94 years for PM (p = 0.0003). For DM/PM, respectively, as underlying causes, the principal associated causes of death were as follows: pneumonia (in 43.8%/33.5%); respiratory failure (in 34.4%/32.3%); interstitial pulmonary diseases and other pulmonary conditions (in 28.9%/17.6%); and septicemia (in 22.8%/15.9%). For DM/PM, respectively, as associated causes, the following were the principal underlying causes of death: respiratory disorders (in 28.3%/26.0%); circulatory disorders (in 17.4%/20.5%); neoplasms (in 16.7%/13.7%); infectious and parasitic diseases (in 11.6%/9.6%); and gastrointestinal disorders (in 8.0%/4.8%). Of the 318 DM-related deaths, 36 involved neoplasms, compared with 20 of the 316 PM-related deaths (p = 0.03). Conclusions: Our study using multiple cause of deaths found that DM/PM were identified as the underlying cause of death in only 55.2% of the deaths, indicating that both diseases were underestimated in the primary mortality statistics. We observed a predominance of deaths in women and in older individuals, as well as a trend toward stability in the mortality rates. We have confirmed that the risk of death is greater when either disease is accompanied by neoplasm, albeit to lesser degree in individuals with PM. The investigation of the underlying and associated causes of death related to DM/PM broaden the knowledge of the natural history of both diseases and could help integrate mortality data for use in the evaluation of control measures for DM/PM.

Nutrient intakes related to osteoporotic fractures in men and women - The Brazilian Osteoporosis Study (BRAZOS)

Background: Adequate nutrition plays an important role in bone mass accrual and maintenance and has been demonstrated as a significant tool for the prevention of fractures in individuals with osteoporosis. Objective: The aim of the present study was to evaluate bone health-related nutrients intake and its association with osteoporotic fractures in a representative sample of 2344 individuals aged 40 years or older in Brazil. Methods: In a transversal population-based study, a total of 2420 individuals over 40 years old were evaluated from March to April 2006. Participants were men and women from all socioeconomic classes and education levels living around the Brazilian territory Individuals responded a questionnaire including self reported fractures as well a 24-hour food recall. Nutrient intakes were evaluated by Nutrition Data System for Research software (NDSR, University of Minnesota, 2007). Low trauma fracture was defined as that resulting of a fall from standing height or less. Nutrient intakes adequacies were performed by using the DRI's proposed values. Statistical analysis comprises Oneway ANCOVA adjusted by age and use of nutritional supplements and multiple logistic regression. SAS software was used for statistical analysis. Results: Fractures was reported by 13% of men and 15% of women. Women with fractures presented significantly higher calcium, phosphorus and magnesium intakes. However, in all regions and socio-economical levels mean intakes of bone related nutrients were below the recommended levels. It was demonstrated that for every 100 mg/phosphorus increase the risk of fractures by 9% (OR 1.09; IC95% 1.05-1.13, p < 0.001). Conclusion: The results demonstrated inadequacies in bone related nutrients in our population as well that an increase in phosphorus intake is related to bone fractures.

Revisiting clinical trials on glycemic control and cardiovascular risk

The most relevant clinical trials, assessing the role of glycemic control in reducing cardiovascular risk, are examined. The UKPDS was the first to address this issue. More recent trials (ACCORD, ADVANCE and VADT) are controversial and evidences did not support that strict glycemic control (reflected by normal glycated hemoglobin) exclusively is sufficient to reduce cardiovascular risk in complicated individuals with long-term type 2 diabetes mellitus. Some possible reasons for controversies are included.

Heritability of cardiovascular risk factors in a Brazilian population: Baependi Heart Study

Background: The heritability of cardiovascular risk factors is expected to differ between populations because of the different distribution of environmental risk factors, as well as the genetic make-up of different human populations. Methods: The purpose of this analysis was to evaluate genetic and environmental influences on cardiovascular risk factor traits, using a variance component approach, by estimating the heritability of these traits in a sample of 1,666 individuals in 81 families ascertained randomly from a highly admixed population of a city in a rural area in Brazil. Results: Before adjustment for sex, age, age(2), and age x sex interaction, polygenic heritability of systolic (SBP) and diastolic (DBP) blood pressure were 15.0% and 16.4%, waist circumference 26.1%, triglycerides 25.7%, fasting glucose 32.8%, HDL-c 31.2%, total cholesterol 28.6%, LDL-c 26.3%, BMI 39.1%. Adjustment for covariates increased polygenic heritability estimates for all traits mainly systolic and diastolic blood pressure (25.9 and 26.2%, respectively), waist circumference (40.1%), and BMI (51.0%). Conclusion: Heritability estimates for cardiovascular traits in the Brazilian population are high and not significantly different from other studied worldwide populations. Mapping efforts to identify genetic loci associated with variability of these traits are warranted.

Late Entry into HIV Care: Estimated Impact on AIDS Mortality Rates in Brazil, 2003-2006

Background: Worldwide, a high proportion of HIV-infected individuals enter into HIV care late. Here, our objective was to estimate the impact that late entry into HIV care has had on AIDS mortality rates in Brazil. Methodology/Principal Findings: We analyzed data from information systems regarding HIV-infected adults who sought treatment at public health care facilities in Brazil from 2003 to 2006. We initially estimated the prevalence of late entry into HIV care, as well as the probability of death in the first 12 months, the percentage of the risk of death attributable to late entry, and the number of avoidable deaths. We subsequently adjusted the annual AIDS mortality rate by excluding such deaths. Of the 115,369 patients evaluated, 50,358 (43.6%) had entered HIV care late, and 18,002 died in the first 12 months, representing a 16.5% probability of death in the first 12 months (95% CI: 16.3-16.7). By comparing patients who entered HIV care late with those who gained timely access, we found that the risk ratio for death was 49.5 (95% CI: 45.1-54.2). The percentage of the risk of death attributable to late entry was 95.5%, translating to 17,189 potentially avoidable deaths. Averting those deaths would have lowered the 2003-2006 AIDS mortality rate by 39.5%. Including asymptomatic patients with CD4(+) T cell counts >200 and <= 350 cells/mm(3) in the group who entered HIV care late increased this proportion by 1.8%. Conclusions/Significance: In Brazil, antiretroviral drugs reduced AIDS mortality by 43%. Timely entry would reduce that rate by a similar proportion, as well as resulting in a 45.2% increase in the effectiveness of the program for HIV care. The World Health Organization recommendation that asymptomatic patients with CD4(+) T cell counts <= 350 cells/mm(3) be treated would not have a significant impact on this scenario.

Effect of physical exercise on risk factors for chronic diseases in obeses women

This study aimed to evaluate the effects of physical exercise on body weight reduction. For 12 weeks, 22 obese women (BMI>30 kg/m(2)) were submitted to a physical exercise program. At the beginning and at the final of the program there were evaluated: BMI, waist (WC) and hip circumferences (HC), and waist-hip ratio (WHR); body composition by DEXA; hemoglobin and erythroctye, total cholesterol, HDL and LDL, triacylglycerol and blood glucose; aerobic power. At the final of the program, aerobic power, hemoglobin and erythrocyte values were significantly increased, confirming the physical training effects. Related to anthropometric values, only the visceral fat (WC, HC and WHR) were reduced. The exercise shows to be an important supporting in the body weight loss program, not exactly promoting body weight loss, but lowering risk factors to develop chronic diseases.

Predictive Validity of the Braden Scale for Pressure Ulcer Risk in Elderly Residents of Long-Term Care Facilities

The aim of this study was to evaluate the predictive validity of the Braden Scale for Predicting Pressure Sore Risk in elderly residents of long-term care facilities (LTCFs) in Brazil. The determination of the cutoff score for the Brazilian population is important for the comparison between Brazilian and international studies and establishment of guidelines for prevention of pressure ulcers in our health care facilities. This is the first study of its kind in Brazil. This was a secondary analysis of a prospective cohort study conducted with 233 LTCF residents aged 60 and over who underwent complete skin examination and Braden Scale rating every 2 days for 3 months. Two groups of patients were considered: the total group (N = 233) and risk group (n = 94, total scores <= 18). Data from the first and last assessments were analyzed for sensitivity, specificity, and likelihood ratios. The best results were obtained for the total group, with cutoff scores of 18 and 17, sensitivity of 75.9% and 74.1%, specificity of 70.3% and 75.4%, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC) of 0.79 and 0.81 at the first and last assessments, respectively. For the risk group, the cutoff scores of 16 (first assessment) and 13 (last assessment) were associated with a smaller AUC-ROC and, therefore, lower predictive accuracy. The Braden Scale showed good predictive validity in elderly LTCF residents. (Geriatr Nurs 2010;31:95-104)