Development and Validation of Decision Rules to Guide Frequency of Monitoring CD4 Cell Count in HIV-1 Infection before Starting Antiretroviral Therapy.

Background: Although CD4 cell count monitoring is used to decide when to start antiretroviral therapy in patients with HIV-1 infection, there are no evidence-based recommendations regarding its optimal frequency. It is common practice to monitor every 3 to 6 months, often coupled with viral load monitoring. We developed rules to guide frequency of CD4 cell count monitoring in HIV infection before starting antiretroviral therapy, which we validated retrospectively in patients from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study.Methodology/Principal Findings: We built up two prediction rules ("Snap-shot rule" for a single sample and "Track-shot rule" for multiple determinations) based on a systematic review of published longitudinal analyses of CD4 cell count trajectories. We applied the rules in 2608 untreated patients to classify their 18 061 CD4 counts as either justifiable or superfluous, according to their prior >= 5% or < 5% chance of meeting predetermined thresholds for starting treatment. The percentage of measurements that both rules falsely deemed superfluous never exceeded 5%. Superfluous CD4 determinations represented 4%, 11%, and 39% of all actual determinations for treatment thresholds of 500, 350, and 200x10(6)/L, respectively. The Track-shot rule was only marginally superior to the Snap-shot rule. Both rules lose usefulness for CD4 counts coming near to treatment threshold.Conclusions/Significance: Frequent CD4 count monitoring of patients with CD4 counts well above the threshold for initiating therapy is unlikely to identify patients who require therapy. It appears sufficient to measure CD4 cell count 1 year after a count > 650 for a threshold of 200, > 900 for 350, or > 1150 for 500x10(6)/L, respectively. When CD4 counts fall below these limits, increased monitoring frequency becomes advisable. These rules offer guidance for efficient CD4 monitoring, particularly in resource-limited settings.

Evaluation cardiologique préopératoire avant chirurgie non cardiaque: du choix cornélien a l'arbre décisionnel [Pre-operative cardiac assessment in non-cardiac surgery: a frequent dilemma simplified by a decision tree].

In patients undergoing non-cardiac surgery, cardiac events are the most common cause of perioperative morbidity and mortality. It is often difficult to choose adequate cardiologic examinations before surgery. This paper, inspired by the guidelines of the European and American societies of cardiology (ESC, AHA, ACC), discusses the place of standard ECG, echocardiography, treadmill or bicycle ergometer and pharmacological stress testing in preoperative evaluations. The role of coronary angiography and prophylactic revascularization will also be discussed. Finally, we provide a decision tree which will be helpful to both general practitioners and specialists.

Turnout, political preferences and information: Experimental evidence from Perú

Electoral institutions that encourage citizens to vote are widely used around the world. Yet littleis known about the effects of such institutions on voter participation and the composition of the electorate.In this paper, I combine a field experiment with a change in Peruvian voting laws to identify theeffect of monetary (dis-)incentives on voting. Using the random variation in the fine for abstention andan objective measure of turnout at the individual level, I estimate the elasticity of voting with respectto cost to be -0.21. Consistent with the theoretical model presented, the reduction in turnout inducedby the reduction in the fine is driven by voters who (i) are in the center of the political spectrum, (ii)are less interested in politics, and (iii) hold less political information. However, voters who respondto changes in the cost of abstention do not have different preferences for policies than those who voteregardless of the cost. Further, involvement in politics, as measured by the decision to acquire politicalinformation, seems to be independent of the level of the fine. Additional results indicate that thereduction in the fine does not affect the incidence of vote buying, but increases the price paid for avote.

Estimating Bayesian decision problems with heterogeneous priors

In many areas of economics there is a growing interest in how expertise andpreferences drive individual and group decision making under uncertainty. Increasingly, we wish to estimate such models to quantify which of these drive decisionmaking. In this paper we propose a new channel through which we can empirically identify expertise and preference parameters by using variation in decisionsover heterogeneous priors. Relative to existing estimation approaches, our \Prior-Based Identification" extends the possible environments which can be estimated,and also substantially improves the accuracy and precision of estimates in thoseenvironments which can be estimated using existing methods.

Iowa Department of Transportation; Equipment and Vehicle Purchase Report for Fiscal Year 2007

This is the Iowa Department of Transportation's Equipment and Vehicle Purchase Report for Fiscal Year 2007 as required by Iowa Code section 307.47. The report is sorted by our accounting object codes.

Involvement of glial cells in the neurotoxicity of parathion and chlorpyrifos.

An in vitro model, the aggregating brain cell culture of fetal rat telencephalon, has been used to investigate the influence of glial cells on the neurotoxicity of two organophosphorus pesticides (OPs), chlorpyrifos and parathion. Mixed-cell aggregate cultures were treated continuously for 10 days between DIV 5 and 15. Parathion induced astrogliosis at concentration at which MAP-2 immunostaining, found here to be more sensitive than neuron-specific enzyme activities, was not affected. In contrast, chlorpyrifos induced a comparatively weak gliotic reaction, and only at concentrations at which neurons were already affected. After similar treatments, increased neurotoxicity of parathion and chlorpyrifos was found in aggregate cultures deprived of glial cells. These results suggest that glial cells provide neuroprotection against OPs toxicity. To address the question of the difference in toxicity between parathion and chlorpyrifos, the toxic effects of their leaving groups, p-nitrophenol and trichloropyridinol, were studied in mixed-cell aggregates. General cytotoxicity was more pronounced for trichloropyridinol and both compounds had similar toxic effects on neuron-specific enzyme activities. In contrast, trichloropyridinol induced a much stronger decrease in glutamine synthetase activity, the enzymatic marker of astrocytes. Trichloropyridinol may exert a toxic effect on astrocytes, compromising their neuroprotective function, thus exacerbating the neurotoxicity of chlorpyrifos. This is in line with the suggestion that glial cells may contribute to OPs neurotoxicity, and with the view that OPs may exert their neurotoxic effects through different mechanisms.

Effect of Emotion and Personality on Deviation from Purely Rational Decision-Making

Human decision-making has consistently demonstrated deviation from "pure" rationality. Emotions are a primary driver of human actions and the current study investigates how perceived emotions and personality traits may affect decision-making during the Ultimatum Game (UG). We manipulated emotions by showing images with emotional connotation while participants decided how to split money with a second player. Event-related potentials (ERPs) from scalp electrodes were recorded during the whole decision-making process. We observed significant differences in the activity of central and frontal areas when participants offered money with respect to when they accepted or rejected an offer. We found that participants were more likely to offer a higher amount of money when making their decision in association with negative emotions. Furthermore, participants were more likely to accept offers when making their decision in association with positive emotions. Honest, conscientious, and introverted participants were more likely to accept offers. Our results suggest that factors others than a rational strategy may predict economic decision-making in the UG.

Econometrics and decision making: Effects of presentation mode

Much of empirical economics involves regression analysis. However, does thepresentation of results affect economists ability to make inferences for decision makingpurposes? In a survey, 257 academic economists were asked to make probabilisticinferences on the basis of the outputs of a regression analysis presented in a standardformat. Questions concerned the distribution of the dependent variable conditional onknown values of the independent variable. However, many respondents underestimateduncertainty by failing to take into account the standard deviation of the estimatedresiduals. The addition of graphs did not substantially improve inferences. On the otherhand, when only graphs were provided (i.e., with no statistics), respondents weresubstantially more accurate. We discuss implications for improving practice in reportingresults of regression analyses.

Contractual allocation of decision rights and incentives: The case of automobile distribution

We analyze empirically the allocation of rights and monetary incentives in automobile franchise contracts. These contracts substantially restrict the decision rights of dealers and grant manufacturers extensive contractual completion and enforcement powers, converting the manufacturers, de facto, in a sort of quasi-judiciary instance. Variation in the allocation of decision rights andincentive intensity is explained by the incidence of moral hazard in the relation. In particular, when the cost of dealer moral hazard is higher and the risk of manufactureropportunism is lower, manufacturers enjoy more discretion in determining the performance required from their dealers and in using mechanisms such as monitoring, termination and monetary incentives to ensure such performance is provided. We also explore the existence of interdependencies between the different elements of the system. and find some complementarities between completion and termination rights, and between monitoring rights and the intensity of incentives.

Family physician involvement in cancer care follow-up: the experience of a cohort of patients with lung cancer.

PURPOSE There has been little research describing the involvement of family physicians in the follow up of patients with cancer especially during the primary treatment phase We undertook a prospective longitudinal study of patients with lung cancer to assess their family physician s involvement in their follow up at the different phases of cancer METHODS In 5 hospitals in the province of Quebec Canada patients with a recent diagnosis of lung cancer were surveyed every 3 to 6 months whether they had metastasis or not, for a maximum of 18 months to assess aspects of their family physician s involvement in cancer care RESULTS Of the 395 participating patients 92% had a regular family physician but only 60% had been referred to a specialist by him/her or a colleague for the diagnosis of their lung cancer A majority of patients identified the oncology team or oncologists as mainly responsible for their cancer care throughout their cancer journey except at the advanced phase where a majority attributed this role to their family physician At baseline only 16% of patients perceived a shared care pattern between their family physician and oncologists but this pro portion increased with cancer progression Most patients would have liked their family physician to be more involved in all aspects of cancer care CONCLUSIONS Although patients perceive that the oncology team is the main party responsible for the follow up of their lung cancer they also wish their family physicians to be involved Better communication and collaboration between family physicians and the oncology team are needed to facilitate shared care in cancer follow up

Management of severe pediatric subglottic stenosis with glottic involvement.

OBJECTIVE: We sought to describe our experience in the management of complex glotto-subglottic stenosis in the pediatric age group. METHODS: Between 1978 and 2008, 33 children with glotto-subglottic stenosis underwent partial cricotracheal resection, and they form the focus of this study. They were compared with 67 children with isolated subglottic stenosis (no glottic involvement). The outcomes measured were need for revision open surgical intervention, delayed decannulation (>6 months), and operation-specific and overall decannulation rates. Fisher's exact test was used for comparison of outcomes. RESULTS: Results of preoperative evaluation showed Myer-Cotton grade III or IV stenosis in 32 (97%) patients and grade II stenosis in 1 patient. All patients with glotto-subglottic stenosis were treated with partial cricotracheal resection and simultaneous repair of the glottic pathology. Bilateral fixed vocal cords were seen in 19 (58%) of 33 patients, bilateral restricted abduction was seen in 7 (21%) of 33 patients, and unilateral fixed vocal cord was seen in 7 (21%) of 33 patients. Ten patients underwent single-stage partial cricotracheal resection with excision of interarytenoid scar tissue. The endotracheal tube was kept for a mean period of 7 days as a stent. Twenty-three patients underwent extended partial cricotracheal resection with LT-Mold (Bredam S.A., St. Sulpice, Switzerland) or T-tube stenting. The overall decannulation rate included 26 (79%) patients, and the operation-specific decannulation rate included 20 (61%) patients. CONCLUSIONS: Glotto-subglottic stenosis is a complex laryngeal injury associated with delayed decannulation and decreased overall and operation-specific decannulation rates when compared with those after subglottic stenosis without glottic involvement after partial cricotracheal resection.

The impact of gender composition on team performance and decision-making: Evidence from the field

We investigate whether the gender composition of teams affect theireconomic performance. We study a large business game, played in groups ofthree, where each group takes the role of a general manager. There are twoparallel competitions, one involving undergraduates and the other involvingMBAs. Our analysis shows that teams formed by three women aresignificantly outperformed by any other gender combination, both at theundergraduate and MBA levels. Looking across the performancedistribution, we find that for undergraduates, three women teams areoutperformed throughout, but by as much as 10pp at the bottom and by only1pp at the top. For MBAs, at the top, the best performing group is two menand one woman. The differences in performance are explained bydifferences in decision-making. We observe that three women teams are lessaggressive in their pricing strategies, invest less in R&D, and invest more insocial sustainability initiatives, than any other gender combination teams.Finally, we find support for the hypothesis that it is poor work dynamicsamong the three women teams that drives the results.

Development and validation of a clinical decision rule for the diagnosis of influenza.

INTRODUCTION: A clinical decision rule to improve the accuracy of a diagnosis of influenza could help clinicians avoid unnecessary use of diagnostic tests and treatments. Our objective was to develop and validate a simple clinical decision rule for diagnosis of influenza. METHODS: We combined data from 2 studies of influenza diagnosis in adult outpatients with suspected influenza: one set in California and one in Switzerland. Patients in both studies underwent a structured history and physical examination and had a reference standard test for influenza (polymerase chain reaction or culture). We randomly divided the dataset into derivation and validation groups and then evaluated simple heuristics and decision rules from previous studies and 3 rules based on our own multivariate analysis. Cutpoints for stratification of risk groups in each model were determined using the derivation group before evaluating them in the validation group. For each decision rule, the positive predictive value and likelihood ratio for influenza in low-, moderate-, and high-risk groups, and the percentage of patients allocated to each risk group, were reported. RESULTS: The simple heuristics (fever and cough; fever, cough, and acute onset) were helpful when positive but not when negative. The most useful and accurate clinical rule assigned 2 points for fever plus cough, 2 points for myalgias, and 1 point each for duration <48 hours and chills or sweats. The risk of influenza was 8% for 0 to 2 points, 30% for 3 points, and 59% for 4 to 6 points; the rule performed similarly in derivation and validation groups. Approximately two-thirds of patients fell into the low- or high-risk group and would not require further diagnostic testing. CONCLUSION: A simple, valid clinical rule can be used to guide point-of-care testing and empiric therapy for patients with suspected influenza.