887 resultados para probability of occurrence


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BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Information about outcomes in Embolic Stroke of Undetermined Source (ESUS) patients is unavailable. This study provides a detailed analysis of outcomes of a large ESUS population. METHODS: Data set was derived from the Athens Stroke Registry. ESUS was defined according to the Cryptogenic Stroke/ESUS International Working Group criteria. End points were mortality, stroke recurrence, functional outcome, and a composite cardiovascular end point comprising recurrent stroke, myocardial infarction, aortic aneurysm rupture, systemic embolism, or sudden cardiac death. We performed Kaplan-Meier analyses to estimate cumulative probabilities of outcomes by stroke type and Cox-regression to investigate whether stroke type was outcome predictor. RESULTS: 2731 patients were followed-up for a mean of 30.5±24.1months. There were 73 (26.5%) deaths, 60 (21.8%) recurrences, and 78 (28.4%) composite cardiovascular end points in the 275 ESUS patients. The cumulative probability of survival in ESUS was 65.6% (95% confidence intervals [CI], 58.9%-72.2%), significantly higher compared with cardioembolic stroke (38.8%, 95% CI, 34.9%-42.7%). The cumulative probability of stroke recurrence in ESUS was 29.0% (95% CI, 22.3%-35.7%), similar to cardioembolic strokes (26.8%, 95% CI, 22.1%-31.5%), but significantly higher compared with all types of noncardioembolic stroke. One hundred seventy-two (62.5%) ESUS patients had favorable functional outcome compared with 280 (32.2%) in cardioembolic and 303 (60.9%) in large-artery atherosclerotic. ESUS patients had similar risk of composite cardiovascular end point as all other stroke types, with the exception of lacunar strokes, which had significantly lower risk (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.70 [95% CI, 0.52-0.94]). CONCLUSIONS: Long-term mortality risk in ESUS is lower compared with cardioembolic strokes, despite similar rates of recurrence and composite cardiovascular end point. Recurrent stroke risk is higher in ESUS than in noncardioembolic strokes.

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Background: Ethical conflicts are arising as a result of the growing complexity of clinical care, coupled with technological advances. Most studies that have developed instruments for measuring ethical conflict base their measures on the variables"frequency" and"degree of conflict". In our view, however, these variables are insufficient for explaining the root of ethical conflicts. Consequently, the present study formulates a conceptual model that also includes the variable"exposure to conflict", as well as considering six"types of ethical conflict". An instrument was then designed to measure the ethical conflicts experienced by nurses who work with critical care patients. The paper describes the development process and validation of this instrument, the Ethical Conflict in Nursing Questionnaire Critical Care Version (ECNQ-CCV). Methods: The sample comprised 205 nursing professionals from the critical care units of two hospitals in Barcelona (Spain). The ECNQ-CCV presents 19 nursing scenarios with the potential to produce ethical conflict in the critical care setting. Exposure to ethical conflict was assessed by means of the Index of Exposure to Ethical Conflict (IEEC), a specific index developed to provide a reference value for each respondent by combining the intensity and frequency of occurrence of each scenario featured in the ECNQ-CCV. Following content validity, construct validity was assessed by means of Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA), while Cronbach"s alpha was used to evaluate the instrument"s reliability. All analyses were performed using the statistical software PASW v19. Results: Cronbach"s alpha for the ECNQ-CCV as a whole was 0.882, which is higher than the values reported for certain other related instruments. The EFA suggested a unidimensional structure, with one component accounting for 33.41% of the explained variance. Conclusions: The ECNQ-CCV is shown to a valid and reliable instrument for use in critical care units. Its structure is such that the four variables on which our model of ethical conflict is based may be studied separately or in combination. The critical care nurses in this sample present moderate levels of exposure to ethical conflict. This study represents the first evaluation of the ECNQ-CCV.

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Our objective was to determine the test and treatment thresholds for common acute primary care conditions. We presented 200 clinicians with a series of web-based clinical vignettes, describing patients with possible influenza, acute coronary syndrome (ACS), pneumonia, deep vein thrombosis (DVT) and urinary tract infection (UTI). We randomly varied the probability of disease and asked whether the clinician wanted to rule out disease, order tests or rule in disease. By randomly varying the probability, we obtained clinical decisions across a broad range of disease probabilities that we used to create threshold curves. For influenza, the test (4.5% vs 32%, p<0.001) and treatment (55% vs 68%, p=0.11) thresholds were lower for US compared with Swiss physicians. US physicians had somewhat higher test (3.8% vs 0.7%, p=0.107) and treatment (76% vs 58%, p=0.005) thresholds for ACS than Swiss physicians. For both groups, the range between test and treatment thresholds was greater for ACS than for influenza (which is sensible, given the consequences of incorrect diagnosis). For pneumonia, US physicians had a trend towards higher test thresholds and lower treatment thresholds (48% vs 64%, p=0.076) than Swiss physicians. The DVT and UTI scenarios did not provide easily interpretable data, perhaps due to poor wording of the vignettes. We have developed a novel approach for determining decision thresholds. We found important differences in thresholds for US and Swiss physicians that may be a function of differences in healthcare systems. Our results can also guide development of clinical decision rules and guidelines.

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Background: Ethical conflicts are arising as a result of the growing complexity of clinical care, coupled with technological advances. Most studies that have developed instruments for measuring ethical conflict base their measures on the variables"frequency" and"degree of conflict". In our view, however, these variables are insufficient for explaining the root of ethical conflicts. Consequently, the present study formulates a conceptual model that also includes the variable"exposure to conflict", as well as considering six"types of ethical conflict". An instrument was then designed to measure the ethical conflicts experienced by nurses who work with critical care patients. The paper describes the development process and validation of this instrument, the Ethical Conflict in Nursing Questionnaire Critical Care Version (ECNQ-CCV). Methods: The sample comprised 205 nursing professionals from the critical care units of two hospitals in Barcelona (Spain). The ECNQ-CCV presents 19 nursing scenarios with the potential to produce ethical conflict in the critical care setting. Exposure to ethical conflict was assessed by means of the Index of Exposure to Ethical Conflict (IEEC), a specific index developed to provide a reference value for each respondent by combining the intensity and frequency of occurrence of each scenario featured in the ECNQ-CCV. Following content validity, construct validity was assessed by means of Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA), while Cronbach"s alpha was used to evaluate the instrument"s reliability. All analyses were performed using the statistical software PASW v19. Results: Cronbach"s alpha for the ECNQ-CCV as a whole was 0.882, which is higher than the values reported for certain other related instruments. The EFA suggested a unidimensional structure, with one component accounting for 33.41% of the explained variance. Conclusions: The ECNQ-CCV is shown to a valid and reliable instrument for use in critical care units. Its structure is such that the four variables on which our model of ethical conflict is based may be studied separately or in combination. The critical care nurses in this sample present moderate levels of exposure to ethical conflict. This study represents the first evaluation of the ECNQ-CCV.

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BACKGROUND: Fever is a frequent cause of medical consultation among returning travelers. The objectives of this study were to assess whether physicians were able to identify patients with influenza and whether the use of an influenza rapid diagnostic test (iRDT) modified the clinical management of such patients. METHODS: Randomized controlled trial conducted at 2 different Swiss hospitals between December 2008 and November 2012. Inclusion criteria were 1) age ≥18 years, 2) documented fever of ≥38 °C or anamnestic fever + cough or sore throat within the last 4 days, 3) illness occurring within 14 days after returning from a trip abroad, 4) no definitive alternative diagnosis. Physicians were asked to estimate the likelihood of influenza on clinical grounds, and a single nasopharyngeal swab was taken. Thereafter patients were randomized into 2 groups: i) patients with iRDT (BD Directigen A + B) performed on the nasopharyngeal swab, ii) patients receiving usual care. A quantitative PCR to detect influenza was done on all nasopharyngeal swabs after the recruitment period. Clinical management was evaluated on the basis of cost of medical care, number of X-rays requested and prescription of anti-infective drugs. RESULTS: 100 eligible patients were referred to the investigators. 93 patients had a naso-pharyngeal swab for a PCR and 28 (30%) swabs were positive for influenza. The median probability of influenza estimated by the physician was 70% for the PCR positive cases and 30% for the PCR negative cases (p < 0.001). The sensitivity of the iRDT was only 20%, and specificity 100%. Mean medical cost for the patients managed with iRDT and without iRDT were USD 581 (95%CI 454-707) and USD 661 (95%CI 522-800) respectively. 14/60 (23%) of the patients managed with iRDT were prescribed antibiotics versus 13/33 (39%) in the control group (p = 0.15). No patient received antiviral treatment. CONCLUSION: Influenza was a frequent cause of fever among these febrile returning travelers. Based on their clinical assessment, physicians had a higher level of suspicion for influenza in PCR positive cases. The iRDT used in this study showed a disappointingly low sensitivity and can therefore not be recommended for the management of these patients. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00821626.

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Background: Gamma Knife surgery (GKS) for vestibular schwannomas (VS) has a long-term clinical and scientific track record. After a period of de-escalation of dose prescription, results show a high rate of tumor control with improvement of clinical outcome (less than 1% facial palsy, 50-70% hearing preservation). Currently, there is controversial data about the active early treatment of intracanalicular (Koos I) VS. Methods: We prospectively analyzed 208 VS, focusing on 42 Koos I patients treated with GKS as first intention in Lausanne University Hospital, between July 2010 and February 2015. We concentrated on patient, tumor, and dosimetric characteristics. Special attention was given on the dose to the cochlea and its impact in maintaining serviceable hearing. Results: The mean follow-up period was 1.7 years (range 0.6-4.2). Twenty-six (61.9%) were females and 16 (38.1%) males. Preoperative serviceable hearing was present in 33 (78.57%) patients. The mean maximal diameter was 7.7 (5-10). The median target volume at the moment of GKS was 90 mm3 (range 17-317). The median prescription isodose volume was 118 mm3 (range 37-603). The median marginal dose administrated was 12 Gy (range 11-12). The median number of shots was 2 (range 1-9). The median isodose prescription was 50% (range 45-80%). The median maximal dose received by the cochlea in patients in GR class 1 and 2 was 4.2 Gy (mean 4.4 Gy, range 1.8-7.6). Our preliminary results showed 98% tumor control, with 30% shrinkage on MRI. The actuarial probability of keeping the same audition class for those with functional hearing at GKS was 80% at 3 years; the probability of keeping a functional hearing was more than 90%. A paraclinical evolution (on MRI and/or audiometry) at the time diagnosis, before GKS, was associated with a less good prognosis (p < 0.05). Conclusions: Our preliminary data suggest that Koos I patients should be treated early with GKS, before tumor growth, and/or hearing deterioration, as they have the highest probability of hearing preservation. The results in terms of functional outcome seemed comparable to, or even better than, the other Koos classes (i.e., larger lesions).

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Successful generation of high producing cell lines requires the generation of cell clones expressing the recombinant protein at high levels and the characterization of the clones' ability to maintain stable expression levels. The use of cis-acting epigenetic regulatory elements that improve this otherwise long and uncertain process has revolutionized recombinant protein production. Here we review and discuss new insights into the molecular mode of action of the matrix attachment regions (MARs) and ubiquitously-acting chromatin opening elements (UCOEs), i.e. cis-acting elements, and how these elements are being used to improve recombinant protein production. These elements can help maintain the chromatin environment of the transgene genomic integration locus in a transcriptionally favorable state, which increases the numbers of positive clones and the transgene expression levels. Moreover, the high producing clones tend to be more stable in long-term cultures even in the absence of selection pressure. Therefore, by increasing the probability of isolating a high producing clone, as well as by increasing transcription efficiency and stability, these elements can significantly reduce the time and cost required for producing large quantities of recombinant proteins.

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Regional disparities in unemployment rates are large and persistent. The literature provides evidence of their magnitude and evolution, as well as evidence of the role of certain economic, demographic and environmental factors in explaining the gap between regions of low and high unemployment. Most of these studies, however, adopt an aggregate approach and so do not account for the individual characteristics of the unemployed and employed in each region. This paper, by drawing on micro-data from the Spanish wave of the Labour Force Survey, seeks to remedy this shortcoming by analysing regional differentials in unemployment rates. An appropriate decomposition of the regional gap in the average probability of being unemployed enables us to distinguish between the contribution of differences in the regional distribution of individual characteristics from that attributable to a different impact of these characteristics on the probability of unemployment. Our results suggest that the well-documented disparities in regional unemployment are not just the result of regional heterogeneity in the distribution of individual characteristics. Non-negligible differences in the probability of unemployment remain after controlling for this type of heterogeneity, as a result of differences across regions in the impact of the observed characteristics. Among the factors considered in our analysis, regional differences in the endowment and impact of an individual’s education are shown to play a major role.

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BACKGROUND: The diagnosis of Pulmonary Embolism (PE) in the emergency department (ED) is crucial. As emergency physicians fear missing this potential life-threatening condition, PE tends to be over-investigated, exposing patients to unnecessary risks and uncertain benefit in terms of outcome. The Pulmonary Embolism Rule-out Criteria (PERC) is an eight-item block of clinical criteria that can identify patients who can safely be discharged from the ED without further investigation for PE. The endorsement of this rule could markedly reduce the number of irradiative imaging studies, ED length of stay, and rate of adverse events resulting from both diagnostic and therapeutic interventions. Several retrospective and prospective studies have shown the safety and benefits of the PERC rule for PE diagnosis in low-risk patients, but the validity of this rule is still controversial. We hypothesize that in European patients with a low gestalt clinical probability and who are PERC-negative, PE can be safely ruled out and the patient discharged without further testing. METHODS/DESIGN: This is a controlled, cluster randomized trial, in 15 centers in France. Each center will be randomized for the sequence of intervention periods: a 6-month intervention period (PERC-based strategy) followed by a 6-month control period (usual care), or in reverse order, with 2 months of "wash-out" between the 2 periods. Adult patients presenting to the ED with a suspicion of PE and a low pre test probability estimated by clinical gestalt will be eligible. The primary outcome is the percentage of failure resulting from the diagnostic strategy, defined as diagnosed venous thromboembolic events at 3-month follow-up, among patients for whom PE has been initially ruled out. DISCUSSION: The PERC rule has the potential to decrease the number of irradiative imaging studies in the ED, and is reported to be safe. However, no randomized study has ever validated the safety of PERC. Furthermore, some studies have challenged the safety of a PERC-based strategy to rule-out PE, especially in Europe where the prevalence of PE diagnosed in the ED is high. The PROPER study should provide high-quality evidence to settle this issue. If it confirms the safety of the PERC rule, physicians will be able to reduce the number of investigations, associated subsequent adverse events, costs, and ED length of stay for patients with a low clinical probability of PE. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT02375919 .

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Temporary streams are those water courses that undergo the recurrent cessation of flow or the complete drying of their channel. The structure and composition of biological communities in temporary stream reaches are strongly dependent on the temporal changes of the aquatic habitats determined by the hydrological conditions. Therefore, the structural and functional characteristics of aquatic fauna to assess the ecological quality of a temporary stream reach cannot be used without taking into account the controls imposed by the hydrological regime. This paper develops methods for analysing temporary streams' aquatic regimes, based on the definition of six aquatic states that summarize the transient sets of mesohabitats occurring on a given reach at a particular moment, depending on the hydrological conditions: Hyperrheic, Eurheic, Oligorheic, Arheic, Hyporheic and Edaphic. When the hydrological conditions lead to a change in the aquatic state, the structure and composition of the aquatic community changes according to the new set of available habitats. We used the water discharge records from gauging stations or simulations with rainfall-runoff models to infer the temporal patterns of occurrence of these states in the Aquatic States Frequency Graph we developed. The visual analysis of this graph is complemented by the development of two metrics which describe the permanence of flow and the seasonal predictability of zero flow periods. Finally, a classification of temporary streams in four aquatic regimes in terms of their influence over the development of aquatic life is updated from the existing classifications, with stream aquatic regimes defined as Permanent, Temporary-pools, Temporary-dry and Episodic. While aquatic regimes describe the long-term overall variability of the hydrological conditions of the river section and have been used for many years by hydrologists and ecologists, aquatic states describe the availability of mesohabitats in given periods that determine the presence of different biotic assemblages. This novel concept links hydrological and ecological conditions in a unique way. All these methods were implemented with data from eight temporary streams around the Mediterranean within the MIRAGE project. Their application was a precondition to assessing the ecological quality of these streams.

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Introduction: The Violence Medical Unit (VMU), a specialised forensic medical consultation, was created at the Lausanne university Hospital in 2006. All patients consulting at the ED for interpersonal violencerelated injury are referred to the VMU, which provides forensic documentation of the injury and referral to the relevant community based victim-support organisations within 48 hours of the ED visit. This frees the ED medical staff from forensic injury documentation and legal/social referral, tasks for which they lack both time and training. Among community violence, assaults by nightclub security agents against patrons have increased from 6% to 10% between 2007 and 2009. We set out to characterise the demographics, assault mechanisms, subsequent injuries, prior alcohol intake and ED & VMU costs incurred by this group of patients. Methods: We retrospectively included all patients consulting at the VMU due to assault by nightclub security agents from January 2007 to December 2009. Data was obtained from ED & VMU medical, nursing and administrative records. Results: Our sample included 70 patients, of which 64 were referred by the CHUV ED. The victims were typically young (median age 29) males (93%). 77% of assaults occurred on the weekend between 12 PM and 4 AM, and 73% of the victims were under the influence of alcohol. 83% of the patients were punched, kicked and/or head-butted; 9% had been struck with a blunt instrument. 80% of the injuries were in the head and neck area and 19% of the victims sustained fractures. 21% of the victims were prescribed medical leave. Total ED & VMU costs averaged 1048 SFr. Conclusion: Medical staff treating this population of assault victims must be aware of the assault mechanisms and injury patterns, in particular the high probability of fractures, in order to provide adequate diagnosis and care. Associated inebriation mandates liberal use of radiology, as delayed or missed diagnosis may have medical, medicolegal and legal implications. Emergency medical services play an important role in detecting and reporting of such incidents. Centralised management of the forensic documentation facilitates referral to victim support organisations and epidemiological data collection. Magnitudes and trends of the different types of violence can be determined, and this information can be then impact public safety management policies.

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OBJECTIVE: To identify the clinical determinants of occurrence of postictal generalized EEG suppression (PGES) after generalized convulsive seizures (GCS). METHODS: We reviewed the video-EEG recordings of 417 patients included in the REPO2MSE study, a multicenter prospective cohort study of patients with drug-resistant focal epilepsy. According to ictal semiology, we classified GCS into 3 types: tonic-clonic GCS with bilateral and symmetric tonic arm extension (type 1), clonic GCS without tonic arm extension or flexion (type 2), and GCS with unilateral or asymmetric tonic arm extension or flexion (type 3). Association between PGES and person-specific or seizure-specific variables was analyzed after correction for individual effects and the varying number of seizures. RESULTS: A total of 99 GCS in 69 patients were included. Occurrence of PGES was independently associated with GCS type (p < 0.001) and lack of early administration of oxygen (p < 0.001). Odds ratio (OR) for GCS type 1 in comparison with GCS type 2 was 66.0 (95% confidence interval [CI 5.4-801.6]). In GCS type 1, risk of PGES was significantly increased when the seizure occurred during sleep (OR 5.0, 95% CI 1.2-20.9) and when oxygen was not administered early (OR 13.4, 95% CI 3.2-55.9). CONCLUSION: The risk of PGES dramatically varied as a function of GCS semiologic characteristics. Whatever the type of GCS, occurrence of PGES was prevented by early administration of oxygen.

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Craving is considered the main variable associated with relapse after smoking cessation. Cue Exposure Therapy (CET) consists of controlled and repeated exposure to drug-related cues with the aim of extinguishing craving responses. Some virtual reality (VR) environments, such as virtual bars or parties, have previously shown their efficacy as tools for eliciting smoking craving. However, in order to adapt this technology to smoking cessation interventions, there is a need for more diverse environments that enhance the probability of generalization of extinction in real life. The main objective of this study was to identify frequent situations that produce smoking craving, as well as detecting specific craving cues in those contexts. Participants were 154 smokers who responded to an ad hoc self-administered inventory for assessing craving level in 12 different situations. Results showed that having a drink in a bar/pub at night, after having lunch/dinner in a restaurant and having a coffee in a cafe or after lunch/dinner at home were reported as the most craving-inducing scenarios. Some differences were found with regard to participants' gender, age, and number of cigarettes smoked per day. Females, younger people, and heavier smokers reported higher levels of craving in most situations. In general, the most widely cited specific cues across the contexts were people smoking, having a coffee, being with friends, and having finished eating. These results are discussed with a view to their consideration in the design of valid and reliable VR environments that could be used in the treatment of nicotine addicts who wish to give up smoking.

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BACKGROUND: Most available pharmacotherapies for alcohol-dependent patients target abstinence; however, reduced alcohol consumption may be a more realistic goal. Using randomized clinical trial (RCT) data, a previous microsimulation model evaluated the clinical relevance of reduced consumption in terms of avoided alcohol-attributable events. Using real-life observational data, the current analysis aimed to adapt the model and confirm previous findings about the clinical relevance of reduced alcohol consumption. METHODS: Based on the prospective observational CONTROL study, evaluating daily alcohol consumption among alcohol-dependent patients, the model predicted the probability of drinking any alcohol during a given day. Predicted daily alcohol consumption was simulated in a hypothetical sample of 200,000 patients observed over a year. Individual total alcohol consumption (TAC) and number of heavy drinking days (HDD) were derived. Using published risk equations, probabilities of alcohol-attributable adverse health events (e.g., hospitalizations or death) corresponding to simulated consumptions were computed, and aggregated for categories of patients defined by HDDs and TAC (expressed per 100,000 patient-years). Sensitivity analyses tested model robustness. RESULTS: Shifting from >220 HDDs per year to 120-140 HDDs and shifting from 36,000-39,000 g TAC per year (120-130 g/day) to 15,000-18,000 g TAC per year (50-60 g/day) impacted substantially on the incidence of events (14,588 and 6148 events avoided per 100,000 patient-years, respectively). Results were robust to sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSIONS: This study corroborates the previous microsimulation modeling approach and, using real-life data, confirms RCT-based findings that reduced alcohol consumption is a relevant objective for consideration in alcohol dependence management to improve public health.

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BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: For the STroke Imaging Research (STIR) and VISTA-Imaging Investigators The purpose of this study was to collect precise information on the typical imaging decisions given specific clinical acute stroke scenarios. Stroke centers worldwide were surveyed regarding typical imaging used to work up representative acute stroke patients, make treatment decisions, and willingness to enroll in clinical trials. METHODS: STroke Imaging Research and Virtual International Stroke Trials Archive-Imaging circulated an online survey of clinical case vignettes through its website, the websites of national professional societies from multiple countries as well as through email distribution lists from STroke Imaging Research and participating societies. Survey responders were asked to select the typical imaging work-up for each clinical vignette presented. Actual images were not presented to the survey responders. Instead, the survey then displayed several types of imaging findings offered by the imaging strategy, and the responders selected the appropriate therapy and whether to enroll into a clinical trial considering time from onset, clinical presentation, and imaging findings. A follow-up survey focusing on 6 h from onset was conducted after the release of the positive endovascular trials. RESULTS: We received 548 responses from 35 countries including 282 individual centers; 78% of the centers originating from Australia, Brazil, France, Germany, Spain, United Kingdom, and United States. The specific onset windows presented influenced the type of imaging work-up selected more than the clinical scenario. Magnetic Resonance Imaging usage (27-28%) was substantial, in particular for wake-up stroke. Following the release of the positive trials, selection of perfusion imaging significantly increased for imaging strategy. CONCLUSIONS: Usage of vascular or perfusion imaging by Computed Tomography or Magnetic Resonance Imaging beyond just parenchymal imaging was the primary work-up (62-87%) across all clinical vignettes and time windows. Perfusion imaging with Computed Tomography or Magnetic Resonance Imaging was associated with increased probability of enrollment into clinical trials for 0-3 h. Following the release of the positive endovascular trials, selection of endovascular only treatment for 6 h increased across all clinical vignettes.